he doesn't try to build up mitt romney, he just tries to tear down whoever he is running against. >> but anyone expecting newt gingrich to go quietly does not know newt gingrich. >> we will go all the way to the convention. i believe republican party will not nominate a pro-abortion, pro-gun control, pro-tax increase moderate from massachusetts. >> ron paul and rick santorum already moving on, looking long term, looking north and west. >> understand there's a business around here, i think ll bean, been around 100 years. obviously, we are near missouri because we believe we can win missouri. >> it is a delegate by delegate battle to the nomination. tonight, the biggest prize yet. msnbc's live coverage of the florida republican presidential primary begins right now. good evening from our msnbc headquarters here in new york. i'm rachel maddow, alongside our panel for the night, steve schmidt, a chief strategist with the mccain/palin campaign four years ago. he is now an msnbc political analyst. the host of "the ed show" on msnbc, the great ed schultz, lawrence o'donnell, host of the last word on msnbc. lawrence is a former senior senate staffer and the host of politics nation, reverend al sharpton, a former presidential candidate himself. you will be hearing from these fellas all in just a moment. tonight, the polls close in florida at 7 p.m. local time. now, florida is a big place. while most of florida is on eastern time, florida's panhandle is in the central time zone. so, polls there stay open until 7 p.m. central, that's 7 p.m. local time there, which is 8 p.m. eastern. and that is the earliest time we will be able to characterize the race tonight for the whole state of florida. our first sense of who's turning out in florida today and what's important to those voters comes courtesy, of course, of our exit polling from the state. for that, we turn to tamron hall what can you tell us? >> we talked to florida voters as they left their polling places today, as you mentioned, here's some of what we learned already in this early hour. older voters are always important to florida and take a look at this. 38% of those who showed up today are at least 65 years old. that's more older people than in any previous republican contest we have seep this year. also, take a look at this number, 15% of those who showed up are latino, a majority kuhn, the first sizable share of nonwhite notice republican primaries thus far. but that's where the differences with past primaries ends. in fact, take a look at this one, talking about the top issue in florida, a clear majority, 62%, said the economy is what mattered most to them and their choice today. the economy was also most important, iowa, new hampshire and south carolina. and probably any other state at this point. now, take a look at this next number, 45% that said the ability to beat barack obama was the quality that mattered most in a candidate. no other option even came close. also similar to what we've seen so far this year. one were the economy, and took that, such a issue in florida is because of the housing crisis. it was, of course, one of the states hit hardest when the housing bubble popped. look at this half of today's voters said foreclosure was a major problem, 32% citing it as a minor problem in their community. so, we are getting some insight. we will be watching to see if viewers have more information on the housing crisis and how that could possibly play a role in today's vote. rachel? >> tamron hall. thank you very much. checking in with you over the course of the night for more of those exit poll numbers. reaction from chris matthews leading coverage from miami. the voters in florida tonight there are more republicans voting tonight than in all of the previous contests combined and then some. more older voter, more diverse, more latino electorate. what do you think is important to watch for tonight? >> well it is a big state. as i said earlier on "hardball" tonight, it is only one of the top four states in electoral clout that really swings back and forth between the party, except for one time in 1992, all the way took '64, they have been with the winners. florida tends to be where the country is. so, it is very important, as you point out, a big state that does in many ways, add it all up, although is very varied throughout the state, all ends up being americana. the big question, will it solve this fight? i don't think it will. there is a bat in the republican right between its head, that's romney, and its gut, and that's newt gingrich. but its heart doesn't go to any of these guys there is no reagan running. there is no ike running. there's no hero. there's no teddy roosevelt. there's no one that makes people happy to know they are alive. there's nobody who has captured the positive spirit of the american right it has all been deadly negative. the negative campaigning we have seen down here, rachel, turn on tv down here is to hear 90% nastiness it is a pooh storm and nobody, as i said, is going to walk away clean. >> it chris, in terms of that effort to try to connect emotionally with the electorate, obviously, people are trying to connect on anger, people are trying to connect on resentment, but do you see in the newt gingrich candidacy, do you see any effort to try to go for that heart that you are talking about? is gingrich making a play for that to try to say i want to be the hopeful conservative sneer are you seeing pure negative from him? >> yeah unfortunately, it set it up really the way you almost capture it in the movies, it has become ethnic, going after the jewish vote, the catholic vote, going after, as we saw last week, i think the racial vote earthquake the anti-black vote, with all that talk of food stamps. it has been a nasty, cheap-shot campaign aimed at fearing -- creating fear about the other guy, not about say, you know what i can make this a better country and here's how. or, you know, blue skies are ahead. if we do the following two or three things. i mean, all our great leaders, all of our great leader, left, right and center have always said if you follow me, i will take you to a better place. i don't hear that. i just don't hear it. i hear romney stomping on the grave, i think, of newt gingrich down here. almost sadistic way. he seems to get -- somebody said earlier, he is basking in the negativity of his own tv ad campaign. what a strange emotion to show to the voters, that you enjoy stomping the other guy. i have to tell you, you have asked a very positive question, rachel, as you often do i can't give you a positive answer. this has been a nasty campaign. i don't think it's gonna help them carry down here and i don't care what people said before this campaign. i think as of now, the president has a very good chance down here come november, given what they have just seen from this party, maybe they can make up for it when they come down here for their convention come next august, when they come down to tampa, but they are going to have to sing a different song. >> chris, thank you. that's intense analysis and actually visually right now, seeing you on the miami skyline, seeing the dark clouds roll in behind you, i almost feel like we have scripted this whole thing to underscore what you are saying. >> i didn't. thank you. >> chris, we will be back with you in just a second. nbc news has had campaign embed reporters covering the campaign since last summer. we will check in with them now, closer to the candidates really than anybody else on the campaign trail, with them on a longitudinal way you following them the ups and downs of the campaign. start with alex moe covering the gingrich campaign. what are you hearing today, alex? >> newt gingrich was out and about today campaigning in the orlando area, he had four events, including two visits to polling sites were him and his wife were meeting with voters, taking pictures, signing autographs, seemed to be in a good upbeat mood. he told me in his last convenient he wished he had time to visit walt disney world while he was in town in florida, but he didn't have the time. speaker gingrich told us repeatedly he is going go all the way to the convention. he hopes to have a respectful finish tonight in florida but they are already looking ahead to some of the other future contest them fly tonight to nevada and have the first event tomorrow in reno. >> alex have you had any sense what counts to them as a respectable finish? all the polls heading into florida tonight show mr. romney with a pretty big lead. has the gingrich campaign been willing to put a number on what they consider to be bad news tonight? >> no you know, speaker gingrich hasn't put a number on it, we did ask him today if he is going to get beat here by a lot. he said, no, he doesn't think he will take a big loss. all those people who have been doubting anymore june and july when they said he was dead and counted him out in iowa as well. he says, look, i'm back, i just won south carolina, we will see what happens here tonight, but he is hopeful that going forward, he is going to make it to the convention and i'll be the republican nominee. >> alex, thank you. alex moe covering the gingrich campaign. going to go to garrett haake, covering the romney campaign. garrett, i know we have been seeing lot of confidence from the candidate himself on the campaign trail. what are you hearing from the campaign today and their expectations for tonight? >> about the same, rachel. these guys do expect to win here, they expect to win big. following governor romney around on the campaign trail this week was sort of like watching deck officer this guy meticulous and smiling and not content to kill his victim but wanted to chop him up into little bits that's what you got, stop after stop after stop, all week, first things out of his mouth were taking down speaker gingrich in a fairly aggressive but also sort of smiling way. until last night, the very last stop, all of a sudden, any mention of speaker gingrich was gone, led the crowd singing "america the beautiful," it was surreal. seem like they are in a very confident, calm place now. >> garrett haake covering the romney campaign that is a vivid image, the dexter thing is really creepy and excellent. well done. thanks, garrett. check in with you later. appreciate it. finally, andrew rafferty is covering the santorum campaign. one thing you can know about the santorum campaign just from us going to andrew, the santorum campaign is not in florida tonight. we are in las vegas tonight where the santorum campaign is essentially already moved forward. what are you hearing from the santorum campaign in terms of their expectations right now? >> yeah, well, you are right, rachel, the fact that i'm in las vegas right now shows they don't particularly plan on surprising anyone in florida and that was really santorum got down to the snipe state early part of that week. the campaign was really internally trying to gauge whether or not they should stay in florida how much they should play there and it was really towards the end of last week, after that debate performance on thursday in jacksonville. they were starting to see some momentum or thinking about staying through tonight, through the primary but then, rick santorum took a couple days off the trail. his daughter, 3-year-old daughter was sick, fighting for her life over the weekend. he came back after -- after that weekend, went to missouri, was in minnesota, colorado today and he will be back in nevada tonight. so he is trying to play for those caucus states when not bypassing those winner take all primaries like florida. >> andrew rafferty embedded with the santorum campaign. thank you, andrew. interesting today to see a lot of the financial information disclosed by some of the pacs and by the campaigns, the santorum campaign very excited to show that they are cash positive, they are using that to underscore the fact that they say they are moving on. of course, all the candidates always say they are moving on before the voting is complete. we will see over the course of tonight whether or not there is pressure on any of these candidates to get out because of an unexpectedly poor showing. say one thing about the romney campaign, getting vivid imagery already. chris matthews describing mr. romney as almost stomping on the grave of newt gingrich, gleefully. we heard the campaign embed with mr. romney describing him as almost like watching "dexter," i will leave that to you. i will say the main ap story from the florida campaign, the first line of the main ap story today, out of florida described mr. romney as "oozing confidence." confidence, good. oozing, not as good. when we runs, we will get our first reaction from our panel here, steve schmidt, ed schultz, lawrence o'donnell and the reverend al sharpton plus chuck todd, our nbc political director and hear from the romney campaign and gingrich campaign. msnbc's coverage of the florida primary continues in just a moment. >> why would anybody in the establishment think that a massachusetts moderate, which is a liberal by republican standards, pro-abortion, pro-gun control, pro-tax increase, pro-gay right, why would they think that he's gonna be able to debate barack obama? >> i know the speakers a not real happy, speaker beginning rich, he is not feeling very excited these days. i know, it's sad. he has been flailing around a bit, trying to go after me for one thing or the other and you just watch him, you shake your head, it has been kind of painfully revealing. 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[ male announcer ] sustainable solutions. fedex. solutions that matter. that's good morning, veggie style. hmmm. for half the calories plus veggie nutrition. could've had a v8. welcome back to msnbc's coverage of the florida republican primary. let's go to our political director for nbc, chuck todd. what should we be looking for in areas of strength and crucial demographics? >> do it here, our handy state of florida we have it shaded simply in the poll closing time it is, as most of the state, the polls close at 7 eastern. we have got the tip of the panhandle there, pensacola west which, of course is central time. we are going to do this with red and green, so r, red for romney, g, green for gingrich, try to make it somewhat aliteratetive here. this is where we know romney is going to have some strength, the question is how much. that is south florida, we expect him to win south florida big three counties there, college football fans, i like to call it the state of miami, but it is miami, broward, palm beach, where bill mccullum won, john mccain did well, the question, what kind of margins does he get out of there? we expect romney to do well in orlando, the question the margin, sort of orlando and those eastern suburbs. where gingrich should do well, the question how well, places like the upper southwest part of florida, i know that is a little bit, so in between the tampa bay area and down to naples and fort myers, it is a more conservative area. of course, the panhandle, think sort of tallahassee west, and then what i'm curious to watch for is jacksonville. because jacksonville is very much sometimes seen as sort of a -- the most southern city in the state of georgia, even though it is technically in florida, that is, of course, gingrich's home statement big swing area is tampa bay. so, and that is tampa, that is st. pete that is clearwater, that's those things like that watching those margins, a couple of things we will be aible to learn about this, rachel, one is gingrich's strength in the panhandle area, including jacksonville, should give us a clue about where he stands, say, if super tuesday in march came along and all those southern primaries showed up, what kind of strength would gingrich have at that point in time, say if nothing changed between now and then and then watching romney's margins in these other parts will tell us a little bit, for instance, if he overperforms in the southwest part of florida he should do well in some of these midwest primaries, places like illinois, where there is a conservative voter there but they call themselves say somewhat conservative rather than very conservative. so, that's the strength we expect, orlando, south florida for romney, the parts for gingrich, clearly north florida, jacksonville, how close will jacksonville be? jacksonville, when romney was the conservative candidate four years ago, he won jacksonville. it should go to the conservative again, but what will that split be, what all right margins be? so, just some fun twice watch election returns as they come in tonight. >> chuck, one of the things we have been watching, of course, how many votes are already banked, how many voted by absentee or early voting? maybe as much as like one in three of all the votes already done. is early voting something that is done throughout florida? any place in florida where that means most of the -- most of the votes are banked or something that's sort of a statewide phenomenon? >> the more banked voters should be, as far as romney supporter, all our polling and other polling, romney does better early voters, either the wealthier people, people may not be there, may travel more, they have more disposable -- you start going through, they are your snowbird, if you will. and so, they are more likely, that's why i think we have seen he does well in these other primaries, done well upper income republicans and that's majority of those early votes are going to be coming from them, so, that's why we expect him to do well. the question how well with the early vote? what's been interesting this time, rachel. as you know, a lot i have a tempts by a lot of these republican lemon slach dmurs different parts to get rid of early voting, shorten the early voting period, do some things as far as election day voting concerned and this time, the early voting period was shorter this time than four years ago because that's law changed. >> i have single republican who requested an absentee ballot, called every single one of them, say they had their campaign going full blast there since last summer. steve, you beat mitt romney in florida four years ago. >> john mccain did. >> yeah, you helped. is -- when you look at the kind of organizational advantages that romney brought to this, did anybody have a hope of unseating him in florida? >> newt gingrich did have a hope. ten days ago, he was on top of the world, he had knocked mitt romney down but he was unable to continue that momentum over the following ten days, he hasn't been able to deliver a clear rationale for his candidates, he talked about moon bases, he was all over the map, he lacked discipline. so, all of these hallmarks of gingrich, who we have seep when he gets up there, he is on top, he can't sustain it he collapses. but for mitt romney, if he wins tonight, newt gingrich is back in that very dangerous position for mitt romney, he is behind again and what mitt -- what newt gingrich has shown in this race is incredible res sillian i is john mccain came back from the dead in 2008 and other campaigns have come back from the dead. very rarely do you see a campaign in the same campaign come back from the dead twice, which newt gingrich has done. will he do it for a third time meeting super tuesday states? i don't know. a lot of the early votes banked will be banked for mitt rom