of scottish westminster seats, could we see a labour first minister or would that be decided by a scottish election? ps, and i love this bit, and i avoided using tartan will purely for laura's benefit. good mornin: purely for laura's benefit. good morning to _ purely for laura's benefit. good morning to you. _ purely for laura's benefit. good morning to you. i _ purely for laura's benefit. good morning to you. i am _ purely for laura's benefit. good morning to you. i am not - purely for laura's benefit. good morning to you. i am not a - purely for laura's benefit. good morning to you. i am not a fan | purely for laura's benefit. good i morning to you. i am not a fan of tartan. we will answer that question, but have to quit listening. if you are the things to go through today. yes listening. if you are the things to go through today.— listening. if you are the things to go through today. yes we have the vafious go through today. yes we have the various commitments _ go through today. yes we have the various commitments made, - go through today. yes we have the various commitments made, theyl go through today. yes we have the i various commitments made, they are really— various commitments made, they are really new_ various commitments made, they are really new commitments on welfare reform _ really new commitments on welfare reform and — really new commitments on welfare reform and we also have the previous for the _ reform and we also have the previous for the manifestos. it�*s reform and we also have the previous for the manifestos.— for the manifestos. it's going to be an exciting — for the manifestos. it's going to be an exciting episode. _ hello it's hello its lower in the studio. it's james in glasgow. it's nice to have the two of you here on a sunday afternoon. i the two of you here on a sunday afternoon-— the two of you here on a sunday afternoon. ., , , ., afternoon. i fought my way through thickets of pollen _ afternoon. i fought my way through thickets of pollen trying... - afternoon. i fought my way through thickets of pollen trying... it's - thickets of pollen trying... it's all male — thickets of pollen trying... it's all male trees who try to mate with you. all male trees who try to mate with ou. ~ ., all male trees who try to mate with yon- someone _ all male trees who try to mate with you.- someone planted - all male trees who try to mate with you.- someone planted only| all male trees who try to mate with you. what? someone planted only male trees and that's — you. what? someone planted only male trees and that's why _ you. what? someone planted only male trees and that's why the _ you. i�*ll someone planted only male trees and that's why the pollen is terrible — trees and that's why the pollen is terrible. , ~ , , i. terrible. yes in westminster you get clobbered and _ terrible. yes in westminster you get clobbered and crying _ terrible. yes in westminster you get clobbered and crying on _ terrible. yes in westminster you get clobbered and crying on the - terrible. yes in westminster you get clobbered and crying on the news i clobbered and crying on the news because of the pollen. the mac that is what it is and it's, the australians got rid of it. if i sneeze, that is why. let australians got rid of it. if i sneeze, that is why. let start with toda 's sneeze, that is why. let start with today's news- _ sneeze, that is why. let start with today's news. it _ sneeze, that is why. let start with today's news. it has _ sneeze, that is why. let start with today's news. it has been - sneeze, that is why. let start with today's news. it has been a - today's news. it has been a busy election morning. not with one gigantic story but lots of different things coming out. the tories were coming out with stories about the changes to the benefit system, extra cash for mental health. the difference between them and the conservatives on that is that they would give thejustice secretary the power to build that instead of going through planning. the lib dem manifesto is coming tomorrow. they have been talking about tackling ambulance delays by improving social care. prominent politicians have fudged the care for elderly and vulnerable for so long. labour has had an attack from the snp saying they can't implement the cuts, the number they would have to had, it would be more austerity, where with their money come from. the common theme is the cash. when you look at this and when things are going, what the big questions in terms of where to look back how their sums add up don't? white a to look back how their sums add up don't? white— to look back how their sums add up don't? white a lot of the numbers is -h sical don't? white a lot of the numbers is physical shadow-boxing. _ don't? white a lot of the numbers is physical shadow-boxing. they - don't? white a lot of the numbers is physical shadow-boxing. they don't| physical shadow—boxing. they don't have the _ physical shadow—boxing. they don't have the numbers. we are going to -et have the numbers. we are going to get the _ have the numbers. we are going to get the manifestos and some costing documents or some part of those manifestos show that they supposedly all add _ manifestos show that they supposedly all add on _ manifestos show that they supposedly alladd up. everything manifestos show that they supposedly all add up. everything up until this point _ all add up. everything up until this point has — all add up. everything up until this point has been an accusation from one side _ point has been an accusation from one side to — point has been an accusation from one side to another about how on some _ one side to another about how on some other— one side to another about how on some other set of assumptions they might— some other set of assumptions they might not— some other set of assumptions they might not add up. we have seen the conservatives doubling down on their £2000 _ conservatives doubling down on their £2000 labour tax tories claim. —— labour— £2000 labour tax tories claim. —— labour tax — £2000 labour tax tories claim. —— labour tax rise claim. i think, the bil labour tax rise claim. i think, the big news— labour tax rise claim. i think, the big news for— labour tax rise claim. i think, the big news for me, you have to reverse engineer— big news for me, you have to reverse engineer this — big news for me, you have to reverse engineer this announcement. we will -et engineer this announcement. we will get into— engineer this announcement. we will get into detail on welfare. perfectly plausible that you might think that you can save money on a bill that— think that you can save money on a bill that is— think that you can save money on a bill that is kind of going up, you could _ bill that is kind of going up, you could even— bill that is kind of going up, you could even say ballooning, since a pandemio — could even say ballooning, since a pandemic. there are reasons for that _ pandemic. there are reasons for that but, — pandemic. there are reasons for that. but, why have they announced 12 billion _ that. but, why have they announced 12 billion of— that. but, why have they announced 12 billion of savings today, this weekend, _ 12 billion of savings today, this weekend, on sunday with their manifesto coming out on tuesday? to my mind, _ manifesto coming out on tuesday? to my mind, that creates, it is manifesto _ my mind, that creates, it is manifesto accounting, i would call it that _ manifesto accounting, i would call it that it— manifesto accounting, i would call it that. it creates a pot, quote and quote _ it that. it creates a pot, quote and quote that— it that. it creates a pot, quote and quote that you can spend, quote and quote _ quote that you can spend, quote and quote on _ quote that you can spend, quote and quote on some kind of manifesto offer~ _ quote on some kind of manifesto offer. there was a briefing on friday— offer. there was a briefing on friday about some of the tax cuts. it friday about some of the tax cuts. it looks _ friday about some of the tax cuts. it looks rather modest it is fair to say in _ it looks rather modest it is fair to say in terms of light, is there something that could change the game _ something that could change the game. they are going to spend the 12 billion— game. they are going to spend the 12 billion on— game. they are going to spend the 12 billion on something. it brings back into play— billion on something. it brings back into play maybe in inheritance tax or an _ into play maybe in inheritance tax or an insurance move. that's why you would _ or an insurance move. that's why you would do _ or an insurance move. that's why you would do this— or an insurance move. that's why you would do this i— or an insurance move. that's why you would do this i think. the 12 billion— would do this i think. the 12 billion has been questioned by the iss billion has been questioned by the iss and _ billion has been questioned by the iss and others but i think that is the direction of travel as a result of the _ the direction of travel as a result of the announcements that we got this weekend.— this weekend. there could be a romise this weekend. there could be a promise in _ this weekend. there could be a promise in inheritance - this weekend. there could be a promise in inheritance tax - this weekend. there could be a promise in inheritance tax outs| this weekend. there could be a l promise in inheritance tax outs in the tory manifesto. we know theoretically that would be lapped up. whether it would be have an effect on voters is a good question. you talked a lot this morning about the undecided voter, about it's interesting to ponder how many of those there might be or how many people after 1a years of conservative rule might have perhaps made up their minds about whether they like what they see or don't like what they see. i wonder if, and i think this was reflected in some of the chat you had in the panel, whether some people are still waiting, photos i mean to see what labour is going to spell out on this in the manifesto. there has been so much talk about change and then the question that keeps rebounding on keir starmer is, what precisely does that change look like. that is what the snp are trying to tap into by suggesting, in their view, that there isn't a great deal of substance around that change. their argument is, look, if you want substantive change, significant change, and you want a party that will hold both labour and the tories to account on delivering the substantive change, then you need to vote for someone else. you can get into a whole load of debates about whether that is a credible position and whether any party will deliver change, but i wonder if it doesn't all come back to the same thing, which is, are our politicians, all of them, being honest about the state of the economy, about how well we are growing or otherwise, about productivity in this country and about the direction of travel and therefore how much money they have available to spend. ads, therefore how much money they have available to spend. 3 lat therefore how much money they have available to spend.— available to spend. a lot of people would say the _ available to spend. a lot of people would say the clear _ available to spend. a lot of people would say the clear answer - available to spend. a lot of people would say the clear answer is - available to spend. a lot of people would say the clear answer is no. | would say the clear answer is no. the billionaire who founded and made lots of money from phones four u was on our panel. he gave lots of money tobiasjohnson and now takes a dim view of rishi sunak. he has not been convinced by labour. he says he is a lost voter and doesn't think any of them are being radical or credible on the economy and particularly he is very interested in green investment and climate change and he thinks they are missing a big opportunity. but the people who don't know are still there. when you talk to both parties and the other parties they say they don't knows are still there in a surprising proportion at this election. let's have a listen to how mel stride said they would pay for some of the very many policies that they have announced already. compare our record, announced already. compare our record. there _ announced already. compare our record, there is _ announced already. compare our record, there is the _ announced already. compare our record, there is the tax - announced already. compare our record, there is the tax gap, - announced already. compare our record, there is the tax gap, the | record, there is the tax gap, the difference — record, there is the tax gap, the difference between _ record, there is the tax gap, the difference between what - record, there is the tax gap, the difference between what you - record, there is the tax gap, the - difference between what you should brin- difference between what you should bring in _ difference between what you should bring in intact — difference between what you should bring in intact and _ difference between what you should bring in intact and what _ difference between what you should bring in intact and what you - difference between what you should bring in intact and what you do. - difference between what you should bring in intact and what you do. you did some bring in intact and what you do. did some research on it. bring in intact and what you do. you did some research on it. under- did some research on it. under labour in _ did some research on it. under labour in 2020 _ did some research on it. under labour in 2020 -- _ did some research on it. under labour in 2020 -- it _ did some research on it. under labour in 2020 -- it was - did some research on it. under labour in 2020 -- it was at - did some research on it. under. labour in 2020 -- it was at 2096, labour in 2020 —— it was at 20%, under— labour in 2020 —— it was at 20%, under ourselves— labour in 2020 —— it was at 20%, under ourselves it _ labour in 2020 —— it was at 20%, under ourselves it was _ labour in 2020 —— it was at 20%, under ourselves it was up - labour in 2020 —— it was at 20%, under ourselves it was up 4%. i labour in 2020 —— it was at 20%,| under ourselves it was up 4%. we labour in 2020 —— it was at 20%, - under ourselves it was up 4%. we are much _ under ourselves it was up 4%. we are much lletter— under ourselves it was up 4%. we are much better at— under ourselves it was up 4%. we are much better at doing _ under ourselves it was up 4%. we are much better at doing this. _ under ourselves it was up 496. we are much better at doing this.— much better at doing this. labour havin: much better at doing this. labour having been _ much better at doing this. labour having been in — much better at doing this. labour having been in charge _ much better at doing this. labour having been in charge for - much better at doing this. labour having been in charge for 14 i having been in charge for 1h years. we have a track whether god to deliver — we have a track whether god to deliver all— we have a track whether god to deliver. all of _ we have a track whether god to deliver. all of those _ we have a track whether god to deliver. all of those measures i we have a track whether god to i deliver. all of those measures that we have _ deliver. all of those measures that we have shown _ deliver. all of those measures that we have shown you _ deliver. all of those measures that we have shown you are _ deliver. all of those measures that we have shown you are covered i deliver. all of those measures that we have shown you are covered by| we have shown you are covered by that plus — we have shown you are covered by that plus it— we have shown you are covered by that lus. , ., . we have shown you are covered by that lus. ,, . . . that plus. if you are so great at crackin: that plus. if you are so great at cracking down _ that plus. if you are so great at cracking down on _ that plus. if you are so great at cracking down on tax _ that plus. if you are so great at i cracking down on tax avoidance and getting money back for hard—working people, why haven't you done it already? brute people, why haven't you done it alread ? ~ . , ., . already? we have been doing and there is more _ already? we have been doing and there is more we _ already? we have been doing and there is more we can _ already? we have been doing and there is more we can do. - already? we have been doing and there is more we can do. i i already? we have been doing and there is more we can do. i want i already? we have been doing and| there is more we can do. i want to ut on there is more we can do. i want to put on the — there is more we can do. i want to put on the record that _ there is more we can do. i want to put on the record that politicians l put on the record that politicians always say they can get money back from tax avoidance but don't always get what they say they can. 0ur fact checkers said tax had already been coming down under labour and the graph going down has continued under conservatives but there isn't a big contrast particularly, which he was trying to claim. the 6 billion that you talk about is to fund _ the 6 billion that you talk about is to fund national service in the triple — to fund national service in the triple lock— to fund national service in the triple lock plus. the 12 billon, as i triple lock plus. the 12 billon, as i was _ triple lock plus. the 12 billon, as i was saying opens up some extra space — i was saying opens up some extra space for— i was saying opens up some extra space for something is the 12 billion— space for something is the 12 billion fair? well it comes from savings — billion fair? well it comes from savings from welfare spending that was pre—pandemic £49 billion per year it— was pre—pandemic £49 billion per year it is— was pre—pandemic £49 billion per year it is now 60 billion and it is heading — year it is now 60 billion and it is heading to— year it is now 60 billion and it is heading to below 80 billion for 28, 29 you _ heading to below 80 billion for 28, 29 you are — heading to below 80 billion for 28, 29 you are slowing the rate of growth — 29 you are slowing the rate of growth from 49 up to 80 and then maybe _ growth from 49 up to 80 and then maybe 12 — growth from 49 up to 80 and then maybe 12 billion. the problem is that many— maybe 12 billion. the problem is that many of the things, the steps that many of the things, the steps that they— that many of the things, the steps that they had detailed today, are already— that they had detailed today, are already factored into the 80 billion _ already factored into the 80 billion. the biggest one that isn't, it seems— billion. the biggest one that isn't, it seems difficult to think you would — it seems difficult to think you would save 12 billion from that. you might— would save 12 billion from that. you might save — would save 12 billion from that. you might save 12 billion from others. there _ might save 12 billion from others. there was— might save 12 billion from others. there was a debate about 12 billion welfare _ there was a debate about 12 billion welfare savings in the 2015 election. the ifs have been hugely critical— election. the ifs have been hugely critical straightaway saying essentially that this is a heroic assumption and seems unlikely that they would reach that, based on what they would reach that, based on what they have _ they would reach that, based on what they have announced. it is a piece of manifesto accounting that provide some _ of manifesto accounting that provide some space. what is interesting as labour's _ some space. what is interesting as labour's response. you might exp