latest. >> the pressure is going down, anderson. and that's bad. the lower the pressure, the higher the wind speed. now, there's hurricane hunter aircraft in there right now. it did not find any increased wind speed yet. so sometimes the pressure goes down and then the winds build. but there's the eye right there from the miami radar site. so it's not all that far away. we've had outer bands coming onshore in florida for most of the day. there's another outer band offshore right now if you're standing on the beach you may be able to see the lightning in the distance. i hope you're not on the beach at this point, though, because the waves are getting much larger. you get that 115-mile-per-hour wind out there, the waves are being generated and there's going to be a lot of rip currents going out into the ocean in the next couple of days all the way up into cape hatteras, even into ocean city, maryland. so let's break it down for you right now. it's 120-mile-per-hour storm. tomorrow afternoon south of the cape. by tomorrow about saturday 2:00 you get to the category 2, 110-mile-per-hour storm somewhere in north carolina. now, there's still a chance, slight chance, anderson, that it's offshore. but that's probably less than 30%. the better chance is that it's very close to moorhead city, atlantic beach, into north carolina. and then the bad part is, that isn't even really land. there's an ocean, there's an island barrier islands but there's the sounds in there, the pemlico sounds. that's just all water. so this storm doesn't slow down at all, doesn't lose intensity because it's over land. it glides right along the del marva, goes right on up the jersey shore and right into very, very close to the hudson river, the new york harbor, with water and waves lapping into the harbor especially water and waves and surgeon long island and even probably all the way up from providence into rhode island itself. this will be a storm that we have never seen. hurricane bob in 1991, but it was farther to the east. in our lifetime we have not seen a storm which just driveses maybe up the hudson river and takes that water with it and maybe even floods parts of manhattan. >> any sense of how this compares to -- on long island in new york there was the hurricane in '38 that killed i think a couple hundred people out around west hampton, all around that stretch of southern long island. do we now have -- do we know how this may compare? >> it's a little too early. maybe the winds aren't going to be as big as that storm. but look at the map behind me here where there's purpleal the way from new england to north carolina. that's eight inches of rain or more everywhere. the inland flooding could be tremendous with this, because although the storm is moving and it's moving rapidly, the rain will be so intense at times that the flooding will just occur. hurricane models right over north carolina, hurricane models right over the northeast. there's very little chance that this misses the u.s. at this point, anderson. >> and chances that it -- i mean, that it misses the whole new york region. because obviously this is a heavily-populated area. a lot of of folks are concerned about that. how likely is it that -- how many tracks show it hitting new york? >> i would say eight out of 20. that's a pretty big number. and the rest of them are either east of or west of the city. so the best case for new york city would be if the storm would be somewhere out there. obviously missing everything. but if the storm would be just to the east of new york, the winds in the harbor would blow offshore and not surge manhattan, not push all that water into man hat tan and long island and into williamsburg. and that way into the meadowlands how swampy that is. the water would just go straight up. the other best secret would be to go over here through the poconos but that would cause more flooding there and it would be dying here because it's over land. that's a possibility. if it goes over the delaware water gap and up into the poconos it would cause a lot of of flooding and downed trees there, even the adirondacks. but the city would be saved at that point in time. >> chad, thanks very much. going to check back with you throughout this hour and into the night to give you an idea of how big irene is, this is what it looks like from the international space station. one crew member saying it looks very scary to him even from up there. mandatory evacuation now under way along parts of north carolina's outer banks, people all the way up the coast being asked to leave or get ready. >> i'm on barrier island right now with my wife and my four kids. we won't be there tonight. >> let me remind you that this kind of forecast is very imprecise, and we're talking about something that is a long time away in meteorological terms. so what we have to do is assume the worst, prepare for that, and hope for the best. >> obviously new york mayor michael bloomberg ordering the e vakss of senior centers and hospitals in low-lying areas. he asked people in those places to consider leaving voluntarily tomorrow to try to cut down on traffic. they're getting ready in washington as well. troops here filling sand bags at a military base along the potomac river just across from national airport. moments ago we got word that dedication of the new martin luther king memorial scheduled for sunday in washington that, has been postponed. the navy is sending 27 warships based in norfolk, virginia out into open ocean where they will be safer. three subs are also putting to sea. other vessels moving inland for safety. moments ago we got the announcement of this. take a look at this. >> this is the capitol of nassau, looks pretty rough, bahamas outlying areas really got hammered. san salvador, long islands report taking direct hits. no death so far there but serious damaging and major flooding as well. joining us max mayfield former director of the national hurricane center. you say one of your nightmares is having a major hurricane go up the whole northeast coast. why? >> well, just because the population. and i think people up through the carolinas, they've had enough experience with hurricanes, they know how to respond. but you get too far north of there and a lot of people just understandably don't have the experience with hurricanes. so that's a big, big concern. and as chad mentioned there, this is a large hurricane. and you really don't want to focus on that little skinny line. because it's a very large circulation in this case. even if that inner core weakens a little bit as it moves over eastern north carolina and over the colder water up north, that large circulation is not going to disappear. they're going to deal with the storm surge, large waves on top of that surge, winds and rainfall. this particular hurricane is going to have a large rain shield well out in advance of it. so that's not a good thing to have a lot of rain then have the winds come in . that's going to knock over trees and power lines will be down. and if you remember hurricane isabelle, there were 6 million people who lost power in isabelle. most of that occurred in areas outside of hurricane-force wind. >> hurricane bob i think in '91 was the last major hurricane to hit the northeast. so the comparisons with irene i guess make sense. how similar are they? >> well, this is a lot larger than bob. i remember forecasting bob when i was at the hurricane center that. just clipped the eastern tip of long island, but it was a much, much smaller hurricane. this is going to be different. and i would say that you don't even have to have a hurricane up there in the long island area, new york city area and cape cod area. this is such a large system with the waves and the storm surge, it's going to do a lot of damage. so people really need to heed the advice of local officials. the weather service offices are talking to the local emergency managers and people need to heed their advice when they're told to do something. >> i was talking to someone on the subway today. a lot of new yorkers i just don't think are ready or have even begun to kind of realize what this could mean or how bad it could get. i don't want to cause some fear unnecessarily. when it comes to the path of this storm, though, i suppose worst case scenario would be a direct hit on new york. >> well, that would be true. and in 1893 there was a category 1 hurricane that we think the coney island ships were pushed in half a mile, central park had tremendous damage. they've had hurricanes a long, long time ago. and this one is different. this is not going to be like the long island express in 1938. that hurricane was moving very, very rapidly and maintained the core of that hurricane. this is probably not going to do that. this is moving slower, so the maximum winds may weaken in that inner core, but the large circulation is going to remain intact. and it will do a lot of damage. and i would expect a lot of power outages. let's just hope we don't have loss of life. >> let's hope not that. hurricane of '38 was just deadly, killed a couple hundred people out in long island. max mayfield, appreciate you joining us. more with irene all night as new updates come in let us know what you think. we're on facebook. follow me on twitter @ anderson cooper next the very latest on the hunt for muammar gadhafi plus never been seen video from the battle to take gadhafi's compound. nic robertson has the latest. also on the manhunt going on now. we'll talk to john burns of the "new york times" with us in just a few minutes also tonight an exclusive interview with one of the journalists who were held captive by gadhafi's hen muchmen. and we'll talk to the cnn producer who's being credited for persuading the captors to let everyone go. she's an arab speaker. she talked to them for days and days and finally they relented. she'll tell us how she did it. first isha sesay as max mayfield says, it's a serious possibility not just a nightmare scenario anymore. tunnels flooded, airports underwater, damage, even death. the frightening reality of a hurricane hitting new york city. we'll talk to disaster author steven flynn about what could happen and what people can do to prepare when 360 continues. if something is simply the color of gold, is it really worth more? 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[ gunfire ] >> the intensity of the fighting in order to take over that gadhafi compound. as we said, there are still pockets of fighting in tripoli and elsewhere in libya, shelling in towns west of the capital. the no, times reporting clashes in zawarah. resistance in sirt and another stronghold to the south, saba. the focus is on one city, tripoli, and one man with a price on his head, gadhafi. nic robertson joins us now. nic, you spent most of the day with opposition fighters searching for gadhafi. what did they find? and how organized a search is it? >> reporter: it seems to be a somewhat chaotic search. and it seems to be rumor driven. and sometimes one rumor then feeds into another rumor. the first rumor that we heard was being taken very seriously by rebel commanders. they'd sent additional troops. we talked to the commander. they thought that gadhafi was in an apartment building close to his old pal as compound. we went there. we couldn't find evidence of the fire fight. then we were told it was actually centered in another neighborhood, a neighborhood that's got a lot of gadhafi loyalists. we went there and we found fighters who said no, it wasn't gadhafi and his family in an apartment complex, it was another family who was supporting him. then they went into that building and there was nobody there. so it's just rumor on rumor that rebels are chasing at the moment. and they're chasing ghosts. they're coming up with nothing right now, anderson. >> so they don't really have solid information about his whereabouts at this point. but to the members of the opposition you've talked to, how important is it that they capture gadhafi? and why do they think it's so important? >> reporter: they think it's number one psychologically important because that will just be very clear to everyone, even those that still support him, and there are some tribes here whose loyalty to gadhafi hasn't been tested in the south of the country, in the west of the country people are holding out still loyal to him. so they think that that will show these tribes that the end has come and they've got to work with the new national transitional council. so that's one reason why it's important. emotionally it will be very important. it will be absolutely symbolic for them that they have a real victory. as long as there are people fighting them on the streets, the battle's not over. and they daerl want to get this over and done with. they just moved the national transitional council leaders here to tripoli to try to begin to manage and rebuild the country. but they're still fighting the battles on the streets, anderson. >> nic, stay with us. i want to bring in john burns of the "new york times" who's done a lot of reporting over the years from libya, recently was just kicked out of libya for some of his reporting there by the gadhafi regime. john colonel gadhafi released this tape we just played. he is -- seems delusional in this tape. he's saying do not leave tripoli for the rats. he talks about a wave of people coming to rise up. it doesn't sound like he is really in touch with the reality of what's going on or he's just making stuff up. >> of course that's been true of gadhafi's statements for really quite a long time. a lot of them have just been gobbledygook. and this goes along, sigh kite terrorists presumably could have a field day with this with the kind of deadly cunning. there's an edge of deadly rationality to this. so it doesn't bode well. and we saw those television maniages today not only of the subterranean complex but the compound in central baghdad. he's he's clearly not there. television crews were there today. but just as interesting to me was another report of a house in a baghdad suburb on a street appropriately known as shadow street where completely-normal looking house from the outside, inside was palacial with a deep 40 foote bunker. and you could see how many times that could be replicated. there might be, probably are, many places like that in areas of tripoli which are favorable to saddam beg your pardon, freudian slip there to gadhafi in the south. >> in terms of the mood amongst opposition forces, how is the morale? and again, i'm sort of really interested in the organization of these folks. is there a central commander who is -- who is controlling the opposition's movements? or is it just small groups of fighters who have banded together as we saw early on in this, kind of doing whatever they can? >> you're asking me, anderson? >> sorry, no, nic. >> reporter: there is a sort of central command. which ever area you go through you will find a command headquarters and you'll find somebody who's smart, who's knowledgeable, who's respected by the rebel fighters around him. and he will direct them to do things. the commander we saw today directed additional troops, additional rebel fighters, out to try and encircle this apartment building. but that's where the control -- effective control of the forces ends when he sends them out. they don't have real sort of good means of communications. we saw them trying to talk to each other by mobile phone. the system wasn't working properly. they couldn't always get through. so that's an issue. and out at the street level, the fighters are very jubilant. they're very youthful. they're very exuberant. they really feel that they've achieved something. and you sense their euphoria. but it doesn't make them an effective coordinated force. and you literally get people, groups of fighters rushing around in pickup trucks with large machine guns on the back. and from where i stand, it looked very chaotic and seeing the limited communications i sense that it really is somewhat chaotic, anderson. >> john, one of the things i've got to say i just found so surreal and bizarre and oddly fascinating out of this today was this photo book that they found dedicated to condoleeza rice in gadhafi's compound. page after page of condoleezza rice photos. you can't make this up. >> you can't. and you know, so much of this is of what we saw in baghdad in april 2003. a regime that presented itself as populist and socialist that was not only utterly brutal but utterly corrupt, living in extraordinary luxury. i'm not sure i would use the word pornography that was used once or twice today to refer to stacks of playboy magazines, but certainly living lives with odd things like that. what to make of that. it would be interesting to know what condy rice thinks. >> i was thinking wow who's going to get a statement from her and what would you say about that? >> what came to my mind looking at that was that i think we have to acknowledge that there's a good deal of complicity among the western powers in all of this. we were a long time, of course, gadhafi was the number one bad boy. certainly was for the long periods before saddam wednesday into kuwait. but then we wanted to get his nuclear weapons. we befriended him. tony blair went there, condy rice went there, embraced him. the british even returned the prisoner who was the only man convicted in the pan am 103 shootdown. so it wouldn't be surprising if some of those people who have now liberated libya as they see it on the ground with nato air support of which they are very grateful may well begin to ask questions later on about our complicity with the gadhafi regime. which of course had a great deal to do with the fact not just that he had weapons of mass destruction but that he had oil. >> john burns, always good to have you on. nic robertson as well. up next you'll meet the cnn producer who helped negotiate the release of 36 journalists including herself from that tripoli hotel. for days they were held there by armed gadhafi loyalists. very emotional ordeal. >> she's not talk on camera. she's not doing it. >> it's the cnn camera. hi! >> we'll talk to her in just a moment. we'll have more also on hurricane irene threatening to be the biggest storm to hit the new york area in decades. checking in again with chad myers in just a moment. or creates another laptop bag or hires another employee, it's not just good for business -- it's good for the entire community. at bank of america, we know the impact that local businesses have on communities, so we're helping them with advice from local business experts and extending $18 billion in credit last year. that's how we're helping set opportunity in motion. it's pro-cool technology releases armies of snowmen masseuse, who cuddle up with your soreness and give out polar bear hugs. technology. 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[ female announcer ] yoplait greek. it is so good. oh, and there's a smile. >> through the past 40 years, he made libyans look like we were terrorists. we were like bombing, you know like him. but he made us look like we're not educated, we're like this third world country. we want them to know that we are very well educated. we're like you, just like all the americans, you know, for the whole world. we're just people. we want to live our life. >> we are a peaceful people. we want to live our lives. be free just like anyone else. >> that's two sisters in tripoli, 18 years old and 23 years old. they've lived their entire lives under gadhafi's rule. they now feel free for the first time to show their faces, to speak out. they even have a message to gadhafi. journalists are in libya to tell those kinds of storieses of the libyan people, not to become the stories themselves. but sometimes they don't have a choice. like the 36 journalists who were trapped by gun-wielding gadhafi loyalists inside that tripoli hotel. they were held hostage for five days. at times forced to lay face down for 36 hours at a stretch. they are free thanks in no small part to a cnn producer who negotiated for their release. we'll hear from them in just a moment and those two young women in tripoli as well tonight. first some of the sights and sounds inside the rixos hotel where matthew chance and dozens others were held captive. using a flip cam matthew documented what was happening in that hotel during those five days. take a look. >> okay. so we're at the fire exit of the hotel. to start this off i'm going to show you what's going on outside the gates of the hotel. i don't know if you're going to be able to see much because it's dark. and you can hear the heavy gun shots being fired. john, what's the situation out there? >> just returning fire. small arms. >> okay. so look and see if we can see anything outside. >> get down. >> okay, we're in the darkness. that's a view. >> that's outside our hotel room. you can see it is not a place you want to be standing up. it's pitch black. >> some of matthew chance, cnn's producer jomana karadsheh was also trapped in the hotel. here's a look at her and matthew talking about their chances for getting out. >> are you worried that we're in a very precarious situation here right now? >> well, not to use a cliche' these days, it's a very fluid situation. i'm still -- i don't personally believe that this is over yet. >> what's your feeling? >> we're going to get out of this or we're not going to get out of it? >> i hope we get out of it. >> 50/50. we will or we won't, right? >> yes. >> in the end, it was jomana who negotiated the release. all 36 journalists were freed yesterday. what it came down to was a conversation, a human interaction between the pro-gadhafi gunmen and a 29-year-old news producer in which they somehow found common ground. earlier i spoke with jomana about it. >> jomana, in a situation like, this how do you go about trying to develop a rapport with gunmen, try to figure out a way to get all of you released? how did you do it? >> well, anderson, i've spent time in libya, this time and a previous rotation. so i got to know the people there. there are actually many, many really nice people that i've met over the time i've spent there. and this man was a friendly one, he would always come and check on us. so it was spending time with him, having tea, talking to him. it was myself and a few of the other arabic-speaking journalists with us. and we just built this kind of weird relationship with the guy who was stopping us from leaving. but we did build that relationship. >> what do you think it was that finally convinced the gunmen to let you go? >> i think, anderson, there was one turning point where we really wanted to get out of there. we felt that the hotel was turning into a frontline. we had tank shells whizzing over the hotel, we had sniper bullets coming in through like the windows. so we really did not feel safe. we all felt that pressure on that last day, on wednesday, that we had to get out of there no matter what. so i just sat with him. i just sat on the floor and i looked at him and i said, look, we need to get out of here. i miss my family. i need to see my family. and i knew he was going through that because he hchbt seen his family for days and he was telling me and other journalists about his five children, the youngest three years old. of course the fighting was going on across the city and he had no news of them because there were no phone lines and no power. so i think that was the turning point. because he got all teary when i was telling him that i miss my family. and he said, okay, let's try and get you out of here. >> were they receiving instructions in real time or had they just been told at the start of all this just stay here, keep these people here? >> i would say it was very unclear, anderson. we were always trying to figure out what had happened. but it seemed as the battle intensified we were basically forgotten. so the initial command was probably just keep them in there. do not let them out. and we tried reaching officials because we were told that office of save gadhafi was basically in charge of the media now while we were there. we tried in every day to reach officials we had worked with. no one was picking up our calls even when we could get through. >> it's remarkable in one of these situations how quickly you begin to feel the effects of being held against your will. what was it like? >> it was really, really, really tough, anderson. i think the good thing that helped us all was that in this group of more than 30 people in that hotel that it was a really good group of people. but of course there were those moments where you were imagining every possible scenario of what could happen to us, what were they going to do to us. are they going to leave us in there? are they going to use us as human shields possibly? >> what was the toughest moment for you? >> there were a few tough moments. like in the early days i think it was on the second day on sunday we had lost power in the hotel. and it was two wings in the hotel. and we tried to move from one wing to the other. and as i was walking past i got basically caught in a conversation with one of the gunmen. and he was waving an ak-47 as he was talking to me. and i must tell you that was one of the scariest moments for me. because i could see in the corner of my eye people in the lobby were slowly moving away. so it was just me, him and a few other gunmen. as i was trying to calm him down he did say you are the journalists who are trying to turn libya into iraq and create a blood bath here. that was really hard. i don't really know how i got out of that one but we did. >> you went back to the hotel i think this morning to get your stuff. it has now been taken over by opposition fighters who escorted you in. what do you think happened to all those gunmen who were holding you? did they just disappear? >> well, they did start disappearing, anderson, on wednesday our last day there. and we were all woken up at 6:00 by our other colleagues saying there's some movement. get up. and that's when we realized that gunmen started disappearing. we saw them moving out of the hotel. but we really had no sense of how many there were, because we could count at a time maybe a dozen on some days we could count up to 16 gunmen. but obviously that day it was only the older man that i told you about was the one we could see and a younger guy who was also there. >> jomana, you've been through an incredible thing. and not just been through it but helped end it. just extraordinary work. producers are called upon to do many things in this business, but you obviously went above and beyond. so thank you. and thanks for talking to us. >> thank you. >> remarkable young woman. coming up more on hurricane irene. we've learned in just the past few minutes that the martin luther king jr. memorial dedication in washington has been postponed because of the approaching some. we'll have more on that decision ahead also some really scary possibilities for new york city if the city took a direct hit from irene. water coming through tunnels, jfk airport underwater. we'll talk to a hurricane expert about what could happen in new york this weekend. vrrooom...vrrroooomm vroom vrrooom vrrroooomm vrrroooomm vrroom vrrrooomm vrrroooooooommmmmm mmmm mm. discover aveeno positively radiant tinted moisturizers with scientifically proven soy complex and natural minerals. give you sheer coverage instantly, then go on to even skin tone in four weeks. aveeno tinted moisturizers. we had some options here for what i want to show you, how much water could come into the manhattan area with a category 2 hurricane. and i don't know that we're going to get it up to category 2, but if it's an 85 to a 95-mile-per-hour storm there's some inundation that will happen as the water pulls itself into new york harbor. >> hey, chad, let me jump in here. if it hits land as a cat 3 south of new york, you're saying it might lessen to below a cat 2 by the time it actually hit new york city? >> correct. because it would run all the way over new jersey. now, we're talking 50 miles one way or the other. and that's 35, 40 hours away. if this is over new jersey the entire time, the storm will lose some power. if it's just offshore, anderson, it still could be that cat 2, 2 1/2. i don't think 3 because the water's colder up here. but it would not lose as much energy as it would if it would just run over new jersey the entire time. and the piney woods. i'm talking between atlantic city and trenton and princeton and kind of run on up the turnpike. that would lose a lot of energy. it could steal a lot of energy because the eye is not over water. so that's the potential there. >> there you go. this is what it looks like. this is the map. this is the map of inundation. all the way over to south street sea port. there are the tall ships. if you come around here on the other side as well you can actually see that part of the world trait tower complex, and i know you've been there, what did they do to the world trade tower complex? they dug it out. and that dig out is right there. there are the cranes right there. water would fill in there. and this is only from about an 85 or 100-mile-per-hour storm. the other side toward hoboken and the meadowlands very flat. you look across from new york city over there, you know there's no topography until the palisades a little bit to the west from there. but the potential energy coming in with a storm pushing all of that water up the east river and up the hudson could be tremendous. >> so i can't -- my eyes aren't that good. so how deep does it go across the island of manhattan down there? does that water go up from one side to the other? >> it does not. it pushes into the battery. it gets -- this is the wall street district. this would be lower manhattan. right here, this is battery park. so it would completely flood the piers that the staten island ferry would come in . all that would all be completely underwater. some of those piers, some of those piers flows and all that. this is what we consider to be a category 2. so the water would still be here. i'm not talking more than maybe just a couple, three feet deep in some spots. but anderson, if you have one foot of water running down the stairwell into the subway, it's going to be very hard for those subways to pump that water out. and there are big pumps in the subway. i understand that. but if the water is -- it's not rain water at this point in time, it's rushing water down those stair wells. that could be a true problem for transportation for manhattan for quite some time. a turn to the right eliminates this possibility. a turn to the left completely eliminates the possibility because it runs over the poconos and into the adirondacks and you don't get this type of push of water. but i'm going to do one more thing. while i'm there, can you go ahead and put what a category 4 hurricane would do? it's the red one. and this is kind of what you're asking. would it completely inundate this other part of the island? yes. a category 4 would completely wash over the southern part of the island up here into the south street sea port, completely all wet. there's nothing -- and so this is the threat. this is not the storm. this is not the category 4 end of the world storm. this is not the day after tomorrow or whatever that movie was. but the potential inundation is tremendous for a bigger storm than what we have right here. >> chad, i want you to just stay there because i want to bring you into this conversation. but i want to bring in my next guest also, steven flynn, who writes a lot about infrastructure and knows a great deal about -- sorry. someone is talking in my ear. steven flynn who's author of a book by the name of "the edge of disaster, rebuilding a resilient nation". he's also the president of the center for national policy. steven, appreciate you joining us. from your perspective, what are you most concerned about as you see this storm approach? >> well, what is clearly now we saw laid out, if this is a direct hit on new york city, orr even if it goes a little bit to the east and hits western long island sound and you push a lot of water up on areas where a few years ago when they had a really severe storm back in the 30s most people weren't living in some of these places. now we have a lot of population dense tichlt and we have a more ancient infrastructure. some of the stories we've been talking about around just the systems are breaking down. >> put the red one back, in please. >> the systems are breaking down. and so the stress means we're going to have disruption. and what clearly needs to happen here is we all need to be better prepared. and there's just so much professionals can do. there's tremendous, world-class professional emergency managers in the new york city and connecticut and long island area. but this is an all hands evolution if you get a major storm like this. >> we're talking power outages, subways stop running because obviously they're underground if there's water down in them. i mean, it's potentially a major disruption for the city, steven. >> it's huge. and long island if you remember is an island with 7.5 million people on it. and it only gets out by people going through queens and the bronx. it's a low-lying area in the western part. there's going to be a lot of flooding. a lot of trees are going to knock down power lines. the transit system is going to be disrupted. it's a lot of people. long island state is the 13th largest state. so this is a little bit different than when we're used to handling on the gulf coast where population is a little more spread out. and also people are out of practice. hurricanes of this scale are something the region hasn't faced in recent times. >> i've been talking to just -- i was on the subway today as i said earlier just talking to new yorkers. you go down to florida, louisiana, people kind of more or less know how to prepare, what to do. here people are kind of like not even sure to take it seriously or not. and it's hard to say because you don't want to put undue fear with people. chad, how much is it likely -- i mean, we're now -- mayor bloomberg earlier said that meet logically we' are meteor logically we are quite a distance from this event. how much is it likely to change from now and then? >> the potential change is still pretty great at this point in time. our left and right potential of this storm, anderson. so we know in 12 hours that it's only going to be about 25 miles that way or 25 miles that way. that's the bottom of the cone. it's very small, the error in 12 hours is very minute. but then after 24 hours the models aren't so good. they're maybe 50 miles one way or the other. and then 24, 36, 48. and we're still 3 1/2 days away from this storm getting all the way up into new england. and if it could be to the right, if this hits the eastern end of long island, honestly, there's no threat really for new york city. not like i was just showing you with some of those maps. the threat would be long island. the threat would be for montauk and boston and even into rhode island. can you imagine if you get all that water into like narangaset and newport and then you funnel it into providence, we're talking about the same type of funneling effect in providence that you would have in new york city from a landfall just about 60 or 80 miles farther to the east. >> steven, you think this may be a day or two of convenience. if it is a direct hit in new york, folks in the city could feel the impact for some time to come. >> it could be for many days. the good news is we do have time to prepare. the basics are people should have a kit. they should basically have the things they need that could camp out in their home or apartment for throw days. that's a good plan. the second is to have a plan, to know where they would go should they have to evacuate and that kit should be a go bag. then they need to stay informed. just these variables, a little bit to the left, a little bit to the right could make a big difference. but we have information now, minimum thing for new yorkers they should go on the office of emergency management's web site and find out if they live in a place that's a flood zone if they're in this category 1 area. so use the time to get smart, to learn a little bit about what you could be up against and develop that plan. >> no point in panicking, getting freaked out or anything, but it is good to prepare and know about the potential that's out there. steven flynn, appreciate it. chad myers as always, great job. just ahead, is there an apple without steve jobs? is the mood on wall street a day after legendary ceo steps down. plus casey anthony beginning a new chapter of her life. it's called probation. some key details are being kept from the public. we'll explain ahead. when a moment might turn into something more. and when it does men with erectile dysfunction can be more confident in their ability to be ready with cialis for daily use. cialis for daily use is a clinically proven low-dose tablet you take every day, so you can be ready anytime the moment's right. ♪ [ man ] tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. don't take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. 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[ male announcer ] for a deeper clean, fight biofilm with listerine®. but not in my neighborhood. ♪ [ female announcer ] we're throwing away misperceptions about natural gas vehicles. more of the vehicles that fuel our lives use clean american natural gas today. it costs about 40 percent less than gasoline, so why aren't we using it even more? start a conversation about using more natural gas vehicles in your community. we're about to get another update from the national hurricane center. first a 360 news and business bulletin the big storm cancellation in washington, dedication ceremonies at the martin luther king jr. memorial set for sunday now postponed. not far from there, the washington monument is closed indefinitely due to damage from tuesday's earthquake. the quake left a four-foot crack in the monument and pieces of mortar felt in the observation area. the national parks service says repairs could take awhile. apple stock today regaining most of what it lost after cofounding steve jobs stepped down as ceo. analysts say investors are confident about the company he built. and a surprise investment from warren buffett is expected to be a major lifeline for bank of america. buffett announced the $5 billion investment this morning. he says bank of america is a strong, well-led company worth investing in. up next, anderson's back along with chad myers for a late update on hurricane irene. woman: downloading music can be expensive. so to save money, i trained my dog and this cockatoo to play all the hits of the '80's woman: hit it, mr. butters. ♪ ♪ take on me... ♪ ....take on me ♪ take me on... anncr: there's an easier way to save. get online. go to geico.com get a quote. 15 minutes could save you 15% or more on car insurance. if you don't have airplay.e, which makes it easy to play music from your phone, on your stereo or see the photos you've taken on your tv. and if you want to share your favorite movie, that's easy too. airplay. just one more thing that makes an iphone and iphone. toi switched to a complete0, multivitamin with more. only one a day women's 50+ advantage has ginkgo for memory and concentration, plus support for bone and breast health. a great addition to my routine. [ female announcer ] one a day women's. all right. let's get an update now on the path of hurricane irene. meteorologist chad myers joins us from atlanta. >> the very latest, anderson, the 11:00 advisory, a few changes here. movement north at 13. that means the turn to the north is completed. that right-hand turn we talked about all week. winds are still 115 miles per hour, but the storm right now has a perfect eye. that right there means the storm is getting stronger and it will continue to get stronger overnight. so here we are off the coast of florida. very big waves off the coast of florida. and you can't be out there in the surf or let the kids or even the pets for that matter in the surf. they don't know what they're doing with that. the winds still and the tracks still right over north carolina. cape hatteras maybe a little bit to the west at 105 miles per hour, maybe even 110. saturday afternoon. saturday evening right over and then getting back into warm water just to the north of virginia beach. here's the story there. and then we move you back up as this skims right along ocean city, maryland. right along all of the area from about wildwood into coney island
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