is getting ready to fly it texas to reassess whether he should bother, whether he should continue in new hampshire and south carolina. michele bachmann coming in sixth. she says she will continue but we will see if she does. jon huntsman in new hampshire. we are waiting it speak with the chair of the republican committee right now that is going to announce that one final precinct. we are going to speak to that precinct captain shortly. we will try to find out what is going on. has there been a snag, a snafu, a hanging chad. we don't know what is going on. but one precinct would colorado make the difference between who is number one, number two and how much of a gap there is. let's go over and talk to all of our contributors and friends. anderson, i think we will get that precinct captain pretty soon, on the phone, and we will hear what the problem is, if there is a problem. because we want to know. who is the winner. >> i was going to say, what do you want to say to that precinct captain. >> i want to say, tell us what you know. >> do you want to occupy him on the phone? shouldn't he be finishing up the votes? >> one precinct, that's all that stands -- >> do we have a sense, john, of how many votes? is it still up for grabs? >> no. we don't know what the precinct is, we don't note size of the precinct tp on one hand it is important we get them so someone will win and claim the moral victory. on the other hand, let's be honest, rick santorum, whether romney passes him o and beats him with two or 12 votes or santorum beats him by a few votes, it is a draw. >> you keep saying a drawing, psychologically. if it is romney, so what. if it is rick santorum that wins and beats mitt romney, that's a big story. >> much more dramatic story for rick santorum to say. i'm paraphrasing here, i spent $1, you spent $10 million. >> if it is four votes, we can agree, he can still sing. >> i think rick santorum already has a moral victory. >> and the question is, who can sustain, who can rebuild. romney has fall back. in new hampshire he has a vacation home. former massachusetts governor. but also history. very strong four years ago. huckabee causing a collapse in new hampshire. this is a tie, a moral victory for rick santorum. what is the impact in our early poll showed little impact for romney. if that holds out, remember, one week. one week. an lot of time for other people to recover in a state where romney has infrastructure. no question about resources. fe wins new hampshire we move on. >> some have said that romney has evaded scrutiny until this point. now moving forward, you have jon huntsman who has been dedicated to new hampshire, who is focusing on squarely on romney. have you a certainly a reenergized gingrich focusing on romney. i assume santorum is as well. it changes the dynamic. >> it'll change the dynamic because you are going to have, here there is the morning ad in the manchester, the union heard of new hampshire they call it now, newt gingrich in color. mitt romney in black and white. you are attacking your opponent. you are in nice color, he is black and white. newt gingrich will try to peel the skin off of romney. santorum will do not in not such -- not going to do in such an aggressive way. but to say, is a conservative way. i would just add this though, these ads will get tougher. there is two debates this weekend. however the one place where everybody has heard this time and time again, is in new hampshire. none of this will be new to them. the question is does it have an impact. >> people think that newt gingrich got hurt in iowa just because of the pro romney super pacs. it wasn't just that. it was the ron paul advertising. >> exactly. >> when way is in iowa last week, i heard a lot of ron paul campaign commercials really going after newt gingrich. >> serial hypocrisy. >> yeah, serial hypocrisy. here is the thing about newt. i have covered him far long time. he is the most effective attack politicians, i have ever covered. >> but ari said attacking him is like a porcupine who lacks direction. >> but he duck sesucceeded in t. his problem is that he has a different brand now. he tried to rebrand himself and become a different politician. >> isn't the reality, that mr. nice guy newt isn't working. >> but it is hard to go from saying that you want to be mr. nice guy and aren't these ads terrible to running these ads. >> don't you think where gingrich is very effective, i think the gloves will come off. >> oh, yeah. i think the debates will get nasty. >> and ways do going to say there, ron paul will go after santorum now as well. he avoided that pretty much because santorum was out of picture. >> a few days ago, everyone was saying as long as mitt romney was coming in second or third it was fine. now here we are in almost a virtual tie. he is failure for not having a massive win. just the whole rhetoric around the conversation really changed because he is coming in so much closer. >> i don't think it is not so much he is failure just that he seems to have this ceiling. that he can't punch through. >> right. >> it is more focused on now because he is so close to winning where as a few days ago -- >> i think santorum came from nowhere. >> it is his moment, don't read too much into that. yet, here we are. >> he personally misplayed the expectations game. they set kpek expectations way high that he would stay out there tonight that he would win bp that's the sense. for him to come in with basically a tie hurts him. but the other part of this is, this contest actually plays out state by state. but it is playing out on national television. and there is a quality, if you can address how obama ran the campaign four years ago, he gained national state as he won a state. it was like wow he pulled that off. four years ago out of iowa, do you remember that speech? >> tell me this, could santorum raise big money in a short period of time now? could people watch that speech, as we all did, and feel moved enough to think he has a chance and actually back limb? >> i think people need to see what he will do it in new hampshire. >> and south caroline too. >> and south carolina too. >> he will definitely get plor money. not the money it takes to go all the way. he needs win somewhere. >> a big donor, they will say economically i can see this, but it comes with the caveat of, but he is way too conservative or way too extreme. not that they want, but from what i'm hearing from big donors, there's a real hesitation. >> but to go back to what carville has been saying, there is more about weakness, division, fractured party, unable to find a candidate. not a high turn out. that's the kind of thing that can hurt someone like mitt romney in a head-on against barack obama. national polls will show, i think weakening of his position. that will play back into this. >> it just looks like a party that is holding its nose. and saying, all right. >> we haven't got a better option. >> we will just may have to -- >> barack obama tonight will feel good. >> he is a guy who should be in trouble. if you look at numbers and look at his performance and you know, look at 45% approval rating, has been for months -- >> let's bring under some republicans here. ari, are you depressed tonight? >> no, i think is nonsense. i think people are way overplaying the impact of one meaningless caucus night. no delegates are even selected. i think with this many candidates, math says it is hard to get above 25, 30%. john mccain won with just 33%. so it doesn't really matter what your percentage is. there's a long trend you have to look at. it'll take place the next several weeks, maybe a month or two. then have you a nominee. that's what it is all about. >> tea party activist, you're all confused tonight. >> i'm disappointed. yes and no, for the same reasons stated. these are, no one is walking away a winner take all tonight but at the same time, you look at the field and there were tea party activists that were caucusing tonight. and strong conservatives and here you still have someone who is very -- at antithesis all they stood for, number one. 25% -- >> does it feel like a divided republican party -- >> completely. there is a huge faction. i think the republican party wants to underestimate the power of this faction. they don't want romney. >> let me go to wolf. do we have numbers here? >> we don't have numberes. let me talk to -- we have two women calling in, we called them from clinton county from the republican party in clinton county. that's not far from davenport. not far from dubuque. in the eastern part of iowa i happen it have been there last week. edith is joining us. edith, can you hear me? >> caller: yes i can. >> carolyn with is with you too? >> caller: yes. >> carolyn, tell us your last time. >> caller: towel et. >> what is your job? ? >> caller: president of clinton county women. chair of the precinct. and i have been on the central committee for many years. >> all right. is it your precinct that still has not reported the official results? >> caller: no, it is not mine. i received a call at about 12:20 from the state central committee asking if i knew how to get a hold of someone from 22. that time they gave me a name and i tried calling, because it is late here. they were in bed. and the claire was also in bed. >> so what you are saying is -- >> caller: so i came to edith's home and pounded on the door and woke her up and got her up. >> so edith, tell bus this precinct tp is it in clinton county still not reporting the results? >> caller: no. the results from -- it is clinton second ward second precin precinct. and the results were called in at 7:48 p.m. this evening. >> so what you are saying is that all of the precincts in clinton county have under fact reported, is that what you are saying, edith? >> yes i am. >> is that your information as well, carolyn? >> caller: that's what i understand. but i also understand that possibly the state party did not have the information from clinton 22. >> so it looks like there is a snafu. hold on ladies, if you don't mind. john, show us where clinton county is in iowa. there seems to be a problem that the statewide republican party says they didn't get some results from clinton county. though these two women who seem to be in charge of the republican precincts in clinton county, they say they did call in. >> they say this they did. dubuque, cedar rapids, clinton county, here in eastern iowa, 1.7% of the statewide po population. let me ask you, edith, madam clairewoman -- we had romney winning, santorum in second place. let me ask you this, if there is miscommunication and the state party hasn't added this precinct in yet, did rick santorum carry any of the precincts and do you know who carried the one precinct that state central committee says it didn't have. who won? >> caller: mitt romney won with 51 votes. santorum and paul tied with 33 votes each. >> so that's 51 to 33. if this is the plmissing precin wolf. add it up, mitt romney wins by 20-something votes. but we don't know that. we don't know that state didn't count it by accident. you are certain that all of your data was relayed to the state central committee. what is their kpla nation explanation when you call back and say, it's not our problem. >> caller: well, ryan called her and he called carolyn. we called limb back, i don't know, 15, 20 minutes ago, just before you people called. and we gave him the figures. and they should have the figures now. >> this is an interesting -- >> so what you are saying -- >> >> caller: i'm sure they will report it shortly. >> what you are saying carolyn and edith, 97% reporting in clinton county we have on the board, which is the official number coming in, that should change fairly soon to a hundred percent and if the numbers that they are telling us, john, are accurate, that would put mitt rom flee over the top. and he would win and we will see. let me just double-check with carolyn and edith. do you have all of the numbers from all of the -- how many precincts are there in clinton county? >> caller: there are 30 precinctses. >> of all 30, as far as you know, reported. >> caller: oh, yes. >> every single one. >> caller: every single one. >> what is the total for clinton county, romney, santorum, paul? >>. >> caller: oh, god. >> caller: oh, god, i had it -- i added them up a couple times. oh, man. i show romney coming up with a total of 437 votes for clinton county. santorum had 354. perry had 73. paul had 292. huntsman, 12. gingrich 11. michele bachmann 62 and there were five votes for herman cain. >> that would be the difference wolf. that would be the difference. the numbers we received at romney at 386, ron paul atpaul . that would be enough. if this is the missing precinct, that would be enough right there to make mitt romney narrowly, narrowly -- >> if that's the 3% missing. >> if this is what is missing. and we need the state's central committee it clear this up. but the numbers do not match the numbers we just received from the county chairwoman in clinton county. >> caller: what do you mean the numbers don't match? >> i will explain it to you. john, you go ahead and explain it. >> the numbers madam chairwoman, i'm not questioning your numbers. i'm saying that the numbers you are giving does not match what state gave so far from your county. if your numbers are missing that precinct and these are the final numbers from clinton county, excuse my scribble but 437, not 386. 354 not 321, that would make romney the winner in the state of iowa. we think we solved the problem but we are not the official voice here. the chairman would have to make this decision in the end and i'm sure the chairman is having a delightful meeting. >> you want do have you anything you want to add? >> caller: we didn't know what the final was when they called me. >> edith or carolyn, anything you want to tell our view sflers? >> caller: no, i just know that those figures were originally called under at 7:48 by the person in charge from that precinct. and the precinct chair and secretary handed me the -- they sat down and completed all of their forms. and then they brought me up the forms and i came home. >> all right. so we -- just to be precise, we didn't wake you up, the state chairs in des moines, they called you, they woke you up, is that right? >> caller: no. i woke her up. this is carolyn. >> carolyn woke her up to get the numbers. >> caller: we were waiting for the results when i was told by the party. so i came to wake up edith who didn't answer her phone. >> you ladies don't have any fresh coffee brewed, do you? >> caller: no, but i think i'm ready for it. >> i think we may have solved this mystery. and if we did, romney would win the entire state. not by much. a little bit. but it would win. ladies, if can you hold on o with us a for a moment. stand by. candy crowley is standing by at romney headquarters. what are you learning? >> what we are learning is that there are folks inside the romney campaign who have been told that in fact won by 14 votes. i'm trying to pin down who they were told that by. i don't know if you were here but we were inundated with the lots of young staffers who had also heard that. so the number they heard was 14 votes. those higher up in the romney campaign have also heard it and they say that we should expect to hear from the state fairly soon. although it is 2:00. so i don't think anything is fairly soon. but you know what i mean. >> if the two ladies we were speaking to in clinton county, if their math is correct, that would make sense. numbers they say they gave to des moines to the republican leadership, it would have given romney a very, very narrow win in the state. but we will wait for the official numbers. >> they say here 14 votes. >> what you are saying is romney aides -- they say they have been notified that romney has won, is that what they are saying? >> they have been told. so i think notified is the wrong word. it is hard for me to track down at this point, we are trying to track down where it started. where they heard from. >> all right, candy, if you hear more let us know. let me go back it john. the information from rom flee's aides, would sort of be in line with what our friend in clinton county are telling us. >> it would be in line with general narrative. my math is not perfect but this adds up, in my looking at it, more than 14 votes. so that means there were adjustments somewhere else, if you came into it with santorum slightly ahead. but this is the missing link, there is what the state was reporting to us and is still officially reporting to us. romney 386. clinton county chairwoman told us 327. there you see enough after georgia gap right there. for mitt rom flee to make up what we were told was a slight santorum lead. if you add there in, that gives you slight romney lead. i don't think it is exactly 14. but if they are adjusting the numbers, we will wait for the initial announcement from the state bp but that is pretty enterprising there wolf, getting the chairwoman there in her county. good phone call to make. >> yeah, preston, he did that, a good guy. let's assess what is going on. hopefully, hopefully we will get an official word pretty soon on the winner, in iowa and our coverage will continue in a ploemt. why did we build a 556 horsepower luxury car with a manual transmission? because there are those who still believe in the power of a firm handshake. the cadillac cts-v. manual or automatic, that's entirely up to you. we don't just make luxury cars, we make cadillacs. [ roger ] tell me you have good insurance. yup, i've got... [ dennis ] ...allstate. really? i was afraid you'd have some cut-rate policy. [ kyle ] nope, i've got... [ dennis ] ...the allstate value plan. it's their most affordable car insurance -- and you still get an allstate agent. i too have... [ dennis ] ...allstate. [ roger ] same agent and everything. [ kyle ] it's like we're connected. no we're not. yeah, we are. no...we're not. ♪ the allstate value plan. dollar for dollar, nobody protects you like allstate. where they grow america's favorite wpotatoes. idaho,e plan. everyone knows idaho potatoes taste great. but did you know they're good for you too? they're high in vitamins and potassium. and idaho potatoes are now certified to carry the heart checkmark from the american heart association for foods low in saturated fat and cholesterol. so they're good for my family, and for yours. heart smart idaho potatoes. always look for the grown in idaho seal. an amazing moment here at the cnn election center. we are trying it figure out that the one precinct who hasn't reported to the republican leadership in des moines. right new 99% of precincts have reported. but apparently one hasn't. rick santorum, top by four votes, 29,968 to romney's 29,964. but by are told that precinct is in clinton county in the eastern part of iowa. you heard us speak to the two women in charge of the county over there and john, they said they were reported the numbers, which are very different than the numbers that are still the official numbers for clinton county in iowa. we have 97%. official numbers, romney with 386 to santorum's 321. but they say the none numbers are different. >> watch this. now if any of the nuns who taught me at st. marks see this, i was never get a scribble but the state told us there for clinton county. chairwoman told us know, romney got 437, santorum got 354 and gingrich got 292. ready, let's go a little path. 30015. that's romney. 30001, that's santorum. what did racandy crowley tell u he won by in 14. >> those ladies are correct. >> they seem to have solved the miflt mystery. er with waiting for the republican party. but this adds up. this is my skibl and this is cnn animal but it matches what candy crowley was saying. we are waiting the final word. there was one precinct as you no