polling station with the final numbers from iowa to show us who's on top right now and why everything could change on tuesday. and our ali velshi is over at the social media screen keeping tabs on what americans are saying online about the candidates. it's been a very busy new year's day out on the campaign trail in iowa. cnn's jim acosta is covering the last big push for votes. jim, set the scene for us. a very important day today. >> reporter: that's right, wolf. and newt gingrich is not crying anymore after weeks of taking abuse from mitt romney. the former speaker sent a clear message he is ready to return the favor. making his way through an iowa sports bar, newt gingrich signaled it's getting close to last call before the caucuses. what better time and place to start a brawl with his nemesis, mitt romney. >> frankly, if you're willing to be dishonest to try to get to be president, why would we think you'd be honest once you are president? >> reporter: abandoning his clinch to stay positive, gingrich went on the attack pointing out romney's health care program in massachusetts provides abortion coverage. >> ever notice how some people make a lot of mistakes? >> reporter: gingrich says the onslaught of negative attack ads on his campaign from a pro-romney super pack was evidence romney is trying to buy the election. >> do you feel swept up? >> no. i feel romney voted. >> by stating now you're willing to get more aggressive, aren't you also acknowledging you should have done it sooner? >> well, i think we're running a very intense experiment. >> reporter: it's an experiment that played into romney's hand. >> this is an election not being driven by money raised. it's being driven by message, connection with the voters, debates, experience. >> reporter: the final snapshot of the race in iowa before the caucuses, the des moines register poll shows the damage has been done. romney is well in front of gingrich whose support has plunged roughly 20% in less than a month. but the results from the last two days in the poll are even more fascinating. look at rick santorum. he's statistically tied for the lead which explains why romney is now going after him as a creature of washington. >> he has a very different background than i have. >> reporter: sensing he's in a battle for two number santorum is taking on ron paul instead. >> like the president said when he was campaigning, i predict that if president obama has four years where he's not looking for re-election, his foreign policy will not be any different than ron paul's foreign policy. >> reporter: the texas congressman's response? my crowds are bigger than yours. >> why are the crowds getting bigger and bigger? why is it 77 million people want us to get out of afghanistan? i would say i'm pretty mainstream. >> reporter: don't count out rick perry and michele bachmann. in the 2012 field of drama in iowa. gingrich says no matter what happens here in iowa, he is headed straight to new hampshire after the caucuses to rip into mitt romney. and it appears the former speaker's supporters like what they're hearing. as he was in this room taking romney apart today, there were supporters in the adjacent room cheering him on, wolf. >> when i was in iowa last week, you turn on the tv, you see the attack ads on newt gingrich. here's the question. what took him so long to respond? what was he thinking? >> reporter: that's exactly right. what was he thinking? that is the ultimate question, i think, in these caucuses. and gingrich said himself today that had he gone after mitt romney the way romney's forces were going after him, he feels as if he could have taken romney's poll numbers down from where it is right now at 25% down to, perhaps, 2% or 3%. then the lodgeal follow-up question to the former speaker was, why didn't you do that sooner? wolf, he simply did not have a response for that. he wanted to conduct this experiment, as he calls it, to conduct a positive campaign. it appears at this point unless something really turns around in the next 24 to 48 hours, it didn't work, wolf. >> looks like a failed experiment, at least for now. jim acosta, thanks very much. we have a final snap is not on the candidates' support in iowa before tuesday's caucuses. earn burnett and gloria borger over at the cnn polling station to break town the numbers for us. erin, this is a snapshot. things could still change. >> as we've seen, things have changed rapidly over just the past few days. just as jim was talking about the latest choice for nomination, this is what we have right now, gloria. >> oh, yeah. >> mitt romney is at the top. if this is how it finishes tuesday, here's my question to you. what does this mean for mitt romney. what does it mean for newt gingrich. >> he'll be so happy. not only because he wins, but because the number two and the number three are people who are not perceived as true national candidates. >> mm-hmm. >> newt gingrich is somebody with a lot of national experience. perry has a lot of money. if either of those folks had been in the second or third slot, he might be a little bit more worried. so if this is the result, i think mitt romney's campaign is going to be cheering. >> and we'll see what it means for newt gingrich. but, this brings me to the second point i wanted to make. >> right. >> which is how volatile it's been as wolf and jim were mentioning. is your mind made up? here's what the numbers are on this. and this is pretty amazing. at this point with this many debates and this much discussion, 41% of people in iowa could be persuaded to change their vote. >> don't forget. these are the iowa caucuses. you're not just going into a polling booth and pulling a lever. you're going into caucuses which we're going to show on tuesday night. people are going to talk on behalf of their candidates. this has been a very, very volatile year, as you know, so 51% say their minds are made up. you know, in the 2008 caucuses on the republican side, 60% were made up months before the caucuses. >> this is amazing. >> look at this. >> on our other screen, this is what's neat. everyone over the next couple of days will get to see we have multiple screens and all kinds of neat things we can do. this actually shows in action what we have been seeing. you see mitt romney in red at 20% back on tuesday. 26%. this is just the past four days. and what you really see is the change in ron paul down and, wow, rick santorum. >> you know, it's interesting. first of all, romney, as you know, has been the most consistent. he doesn't go much below that 22%. he can't get much above the 26%. you look at santorum, though. he's probably thinking he's peaking at just the right time. some of these folks peaked a little early. i would say ron paul probably did. that's the peril of being a front-runner. once you're the front-runner, you get a different kind of treatment and you go under the magnifying glass. it's tough. >> only four days ago ron paul was the one with 29%. that shows you the brief window of time we're talking about here. back to you, wolf. >> thanks very much. it's interesting that as far as mitt romney is concerned, he's been down this road in iowa before. john king is over at the magic wall for us. he's -- he learned some lessons four years ago that i'm sure he hopes will be applicable this time. >> as we take a closer look, wolf, when the voting starts on tuesday night we get to redraw the whole map. this is 2008 for you here. you remember in november barack obama carried iowa. let's go back to the republican caucuses. first let's look at 2008. this is the big test right here. mitt romney thought he was going to win iowa in 2008. he did very well in the eastern and the western part. as you see, he got 25% of the vote. but look what happened. look what happened in the middle of state. all that orange. mike huckabee. that is the question this year. does one candidate, does one candidate consolidate in the end the evangelical vote? i'm going to keep that screen just like that. take this up. let's come forward to 2012. we have no votes yet. here are your candidates. jon huntsman is not really playing in iowa. he's waiting for new hampshire. if you go through the candidates, michele bachmann wants that evangelical vote. newt gingrich needs a slice. rick perry campaigning hard for the evangelical vote. right now gloria and erin just mentioned the santorum surge. mitt romney gets a piece of it. ron paul surprisingly gets a pretty good piece of the evangelical vote. look at these candidates. she needs it, he needs, he needs it. he needs it if he's going to pull up a surprise win. go back to the map. that's the question for 2012. does one candidate, a santorum, perry, bachmann, can they win here in the middle part of the state? mike huckabee one with just 356 votes. you say that's not many. you come into the caucus setting, you win all these small towns, you offset the romney wins here. does one candidate, wolf, does one candidate get all this? or is it split? if the evangelical vote is split and mitt romney can match this, maybe grow a little bit, that 25% might be enough to win. one more point i want to make. if you look down here, there's a lonely color right down here. who's that? in 2008, ron paul won just one county. tiny jefferson county. we know he's stronger this time. the question is, as he gets more votes, can he not just have more votes but can he fill in more of the map by winning counties? >> those are 2008 numbers. the final numbers in iowa. i'm sure rick santorum is looking at mike huckabee's 35% saying to himself, i can do that. >> if you can get to that, you'll most likely win the state. because look at this. huckabee and romney right there. that's 60% of the vote between two candidates. if you have that this time, then the question will be who gets the third ticket out. with the santorum surge, this is what his campaign is dreaming about. can they match huckabee. huckabee surged early. we knew at this point four years ago that mike huckabee was a major player and the potential winner in iowa. this race has broken late. the polling in iowa tracked the national debates. the debates were so dominant in this race, the iowa polling tracked the national polls until just the last ten days or so. once the debates ended, iowa has gone back to the old-fashioned way. rick santorum has worked this state really hard. less money, but worth watching. >> stand by, john. we're going to be coming back to you. a lot to digest now. candy crowley is standing by. she's in demine on the ground in iowa. she's joining us. looks a litling bit different this time around for mitt romney. looks like a cold night in des moines as well, candy. set the scene for us as far as romney is concerned. >> reporter: you know, wolf, i had a brief but interesting conversation with the romneys the other night. we shared an elevator in the hotel going up together. and i said, well, you seem pretty laid back. i think it's hard to think of mitt romney and laid back. but he seemed just easier to me than he did certainly four years ago on the campaign trail. and mrs. romney, ann romney, said to me, you know, it's different this time. i said, how so? he said, you know, i think we realize some of it's just out of our hands. so, you know, he approached iowa differently strategically this time. he poured $10 million into it last time and came wup a poor second to mike huckabee. he spent a lot less money. he's been here less than three week. less than three weeks on the ground in iowa throughout the whole campaign season because they didn't want to pour all his time and resources into this state. and yet here he is, and he's looking pretty good. now, is that because of some change in strategy or because that conservative vote is being split four ways? so he can get the same 25% he got four years ago. and maybe still win. because that evangelical and conservative christian vote is so split among the others. so there certainly is something to him, the dynamics of the race are different than they were four years ago. and i think that has made him seem a little easier. although he admits, he can get hyper sometimes. if you see him on the campaign trail, he is, indeed, pretty pepped up. he does seem a little more laid back and a little more confident about how he's going to come out here. >> that was the impression i had as well when i saw him in iowa last week. candy in des moines for us, we'll be getting back to you. ron paul is certainly striking fear in the hearts of some establishment republicans across the country. we're going to take a closer look at his message, how it got him where he is today. a front-runner in iowa. plus, i'll ask michele bachmann about one republican's claim that she's staying in the race in hopes of being mitt romney's running mate. michele bachmann is signaling she's stay in the presidential race no matter how she does in iowa. her campaign confirms her travel plans after the caucuses. she'll go to new hampshire which holds its primary next week, but first she'll stop in south carolina which holds its primary on january 21st. joining us now from iowa, congresswoman michele bachmann. congresswoman, thanks very much for coming in. let's get right to what's going on right now. you were so high in iowa when you won the iowa straw poll. these latest polls you're not doing very well. if you could change one thing in your campaign strategy between august and now, what would that be? >> well, what we're looking at right now, wolf, is on tuesday night, and we think we made the exact right decision. after the last debate, where i took on ron paul over the issue of whether or not iran should have a nuclear weapon, we saw an electric light switch flip on and we saw people all across iowa come toward our campaign. we literally saw several thousands of people flip and go my way in the last couple of weeks because we did something no other candidate did. we traveled 6,900 miles across iowa. we visited all 99 cowan tis. during the course of that time we saw iowans who said no candidate has been to this part of iowa. we saw people continue to make their decision to support me for the presidency. and we think we did exactly what we need to do for tuesday night. >> rick santorum has visited all 99 counties as well. he was the first one to do so. he's surging right now. so what went wrong, though, for you? >> nothing has gone wrong, wolf. what we're looking at is tuesday night and what is going to happen. i was just over in os ka loo is a, iowa, speaking in a church this morning. we were on our way back. we had stopped at a culver's to get some food. people were flocking our bus, coming onboard. people were so excited saying, oh, we're with you, we're going all the way. people are really charged up. i think you're going to see people speak at the caucuses. because, again, about 40% to 45% of the people in iowa haven't made up their minds. we don't know who will come to the caucuses, who won't. and of all of the candidates, i have the most enthusiastic supporters. and that's what you need. caucusing is very different than primaries. you can take poll tests, but everything that matters is who shows up and who do they support. >> in this "dmin register" poll i was really surprised when people were asked the question which one of the candidates would you say is the least knowledgeable, and you came out on top. 26% said you were the least knowledgeable. rick perry, 17%. ron paul, 11%. why do you think that is? why do they say that you're the least knowledgeable among these republican candidates? >> well, i think what i have demonstrated clearly during the course of the debats is that i do have knowledge. on national security, i have more current experience on national security than any other candidate. when it comes to fiscal policy, domestic policy and national security policy, i've got it. polls can say one thing, but i think during the course of the debates, i've demonstrated very clearly that i'm highly competent, don ver sant on the issues. i am a successful private businesswoman, a tax lawyer. i have the national security experience. i'm the whole package, i think, for what we need to have to face president obama on the stage, in the debates, take him on, defeat him and put the nation on the right track. >> and you're the only woman who's running for the republican presidential nomination. last week when we spoke, you compared yourself to margaret thatcher. you called yourself the iron lady. is there a problem that iowans might have with you because you're a woman? >> well, clearly, they didn't have a problem in the straw poll. because there's only been one statewide race in this presidential election so far, and it's the iowa straw poll, and i'm the candidate that won the iowa straw poll. so clearly they were willing to get behind a woman. and i think they will again. i think, actually, it demonstrates when barack obama became president, he did so in large part because of the support that he received from young people. i also have a very large amount of support from young people as well. >> the reason i raise the whole issue of gender, iowa's never elected a woman governor. iowa's never elected even a woman representative to the house of representatives or to the senate. so that could be a factor. but let me ask you about ed rollins who used to work for you in your campaign. he told politico the other day, he says you've avoided criticizing mitt romney with a deliberate strategy in that you want to be his running mate. is that true? >> no, it's absolutely flat-out false. i have no idea why he'd say something like that, because it's not true. because if you look during the course of the debates and if you look at the course of my comments throughout the campaign, probably no one has been a bigger critic of romneycare than i have. because i have been the leading advocate against obamacare. and romneycare is the blueprint, if you will, for obamacare. in fact, mitt romney's advisers went into the white house in 2009 and sat down with barack obama's team as they were designing obamacare. this is the seminole issue of barack obama's presidency. and this is the chief liability that mitt romney has going into the presidential race. consider it. he is the only governor in the history of the united states that has put into place socialized medicine in his state. and that's going to be our nominee to stand up against president obama? that's why i'm the best candidate to stand up against president obama. i can stand with a clear conscience on the stage and take president obama on, on every issue that's important to the american people. chief of which is stopping out-of-control spending. and if you have socialized medicine, all you're going to get is unpaid for spending. i have the ability to hold president obama accountable for how he's destroyed not only our economy, but how he will destroy our great health care system. >> good luck, congresswoman. thanks very much. we've got 48 hours to go. >> we do. thanks again, wolf. good to talk with you. thank you. joining us from urban dale, iowa, congresswoman michele bachmann. we've seen candidates rise and fall in this republican presidential contest. erin burnett will take us through the ups and downs in the polls for clues in the direction if race might take next. rack santorum surge. can he keep the momentum going on tuesday night and beyond? was. never took life too seriously. 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