palestinian spring, the time for independence. but up first tonight, testing time for republican presidential front-runner rick perry. this from earlier today, a textbook example of playing it safe. >> our president, the great promiser of hope and change, he has delivered neither. >> this, on the other hand? call this throwing fuel on the fire. >> my friend, governor perry, said if you don't agree with his position on giving that in-state tuition to illegals, that you don't have a heart. i think if you're opposed to illegal immigration, it doesn't mean that you don't have a heart. it means that you have a heart and a brain. >> those competing speeches to a conservative political gathering continued. the immigration dividing line that was on display in last night's latest feisty republican presidential debate. governor perry's immigration views, opposition to a border fence, support for in-state tuition breaks for the children of illegal immigrants, are anathema to many conservatives. and there is suddenly a sense the national republican front-runner is perhaps a bit wobbly. our conservative contributor, erick erickson wrote this of governor perry's latest shaky debate performance. quote, rick perry stands on the precipice. he is about to fall off. a weekly standard editorial by the conservative bill crystal was equally harsh. "no front-runner a presidential field has ever, we imagine, had as weak a showing as rick perry. it was close to a disqualifying two hours for him." it is, we remind you, only september 2011. still more than four months until the iowa caucuses. but if governor perry is wounded tonight, how much so? erick erickson is with us tonight from macon, georgia. long-time conservative activist al cardin is in atlanta and the veteran "washington post" political writer dan bowles is with me in studio. dan, let me start with you. we have covered a lot of these things. this is a case of fast gravity, i guess. rick perry went up very quick. has he really fallen that fast? >> well, there is certainly a lot of air that's come out of the balloon. we have not seen with him what happened with michele bachmann, who went very quickly up and very rapidly down. but he has certainly been damaged by the three debates that he's participated in. and the reviews particularly from conservatives, as you point out, have been very, very harsh, especially in the wake of last night's debate. so, i think there's no question that he's wounded. does he have time to recover? certainly. but he's in a different place today than he was. >> let's dig deeper into exactly why. erick erickson, i want to start with you on the policy. you heard governor romney there essentially going after governor perry, who said this in last night's debate. "governor perry, the texas governor of a border state, has supported the in-state tuition breaks for the children of illegal immigrants." here's why. >> but if you say that we should not educate children who have come into our state for no other reason than they have been brought there by no fault of their own, i don't think you have a heart. >> that is his position. it has been his position for more than a decade, erick, but he's telling a lot of conservative voters who disagree with him they don't have a heart. >> yeah, that's not helpful. this reminds me of the george bush rhetoric in 2005 with his comprehensive immigration reform, where conservatives got mad at him not necessarily to begin with with what he was doing, but the way he was demagoging the issue against conservatives. this isn't going to help perry. if he actually explained his policy, i actually think most conservatives would probably agree with it. we are actually only talking about a couple hundred students for the entire state of texas. and explain that versus the offset of if they weren't going to school getting an education, they would probably be sucking up community resources elsewhere. so that's his position. he just -- he did not have a debate performance last night worthy of a debate performance, but of course, his camp today says, you know, he's lost every single debate he has ever been in in any election he's ever run in and still won those elections. >> he's never run for president. and a lot of governors do find out it's a little different. i want to get to the debating skills or lack thereof in a moment. al, let me go to you. you just heard eric saying if the governor defends his position, most conservatives would agree with him. we were together just a little more than a week ago at a luncheon in tampa and you had a lot of tea party activists there and they flat-out were just furious when they heard this about governor perry, state resources, their tax dollars, going to support the children of illegal immigrants. can he win this one with the conservative base on the policy question? >> you know, on the policy question, i didn't understand his response, frankly. i mean, conservatives believe in the tenth amendment. he could have said, look, this is a state decision. people in the state of texas on both sides of the aisle supported the subsidy program, whether you agree with it or not, that's how we like it in texas. but he didn't use that argument. nationally, that doesn't sell. i think everyone on the panel, all the other candidates and most conservatives didn't have a problem with kids who didn't have anything to do with the decision to come to america going to college, but i don't think anyone in the conservative movement agrees they ought to receive subsidies, no matter how many of them. and frankly, something that stuck in our craw was if they were in arkansas, a military veteran wanted to go to school in texas, they would have to pay $100,000 more for their education than that other kid. and so, that won't sell well. obviously, governor perry entered this race, john, without any chinks in the armor. as the campaign goes on, folks find out that all candidates have a chink in their armor and we're just beginning to discover a few in his. >> i have yet to meet the perfect candidate. that is one of the questions, that's an important policy issue he's going to have to litigate with conservative voters. can they set that aside, even if they disagree with him and maybe support him for other positions? one of the other big things about governor perry was people said here's this texan, he's smooth, aggressive, tough, he's the guy we can see up on the stage against barack obama in the next debates. then this comes along, his third debate. his reviews have been so-so, not great. here, he's trying to draw a contrast with mitt romney, trying to say romney is inconsistent, he flip-flops on the issues, but the answer sounds a bit rambling. listen. >> i think americans just don't know sometimes which mitt romney they're dealing with. is it the mitt romney that was on the side of against the second amendment before he was for the second amendment? was it before he was before the social programs from the standpoint of he was for standing up for roe versus wade, before he was against roe versus wade? he was for race to the top? he's for obama care and now he's against it. i mean, we'll wait until tomorrow and see which mitt romney we're really talking to tonight. >> to be fair to the governor, dan balz, all candidates have rough debate performances, especially new candidates on the presidential stage. sometimes, whether it's nerves, whether it's inexperience, he hasn't debated a lot in his races. if he's been ahead, they said no to debates. but if you're trying to sell yourself in this republican year, when republicans feel the president is vulnerable, is the guy you want up on that stage next october, that didn't help. >> no, it sure didn't. and that particular answer, along with some of the other things he had to say last night and some of the other debates, have really caused people to say is this the rick perry that we thought we were getting when he came into the race? on paper, he looked really good to a lot of conservatives. but as you know, presidential campaigns are a much different order of battle than anything he's gone through. he's never experienced this. there is obviously nerves. there is lack of preparation. and i think the third thing he suffers from is he's had to do this all under the bright lights. everybody gets a chance to make mistakes kind of out of public view. every mistake he makes now is going to be magnified. >> so, al, when you're talking to conservative activists at your cpac meeting today, in other settings, what are their questions now that they have seen this guy? most are probably favorably disposed. what's the number one and two question they have? >> yeah, john, using the football metaphor, the big question is, well, is he in preseason form or is this a regular season and this is the best you get? most of his supporters push back saying he's brand new into the process, he's in preseason form, wait until he gets a good hang of it. and other folks are saying, well, if this is the best he's got, he's in real trouble. i don't know the answer to that. i guess we'll know as the future takes hold. but one thing he's got going for him, is unlike previous years where we had two or three debates and a debate like yesterday's would have been fatal, you fellows are going to have 12 or 15 of these things by the time the primary season's over so if he lost one round like he did yesterday, he may have ten more rounds to go to recover. but recover, he must, if he's going to continue to be a top-tier contender. >> al cardenas in florida, dan balz with me tonight, thank you. erick will be back with us in a little bit. gentlemen, thanks for your help tonight. we have more debates coming and we know governor perry will probably feel the pressure to be in the next one. thank you. developments today at the united nations and in the middle east. next, will it bring israel and palestinians any closer? 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[ male announcer ] with efficient i.t. solutions from dell, doug can shift up to 50% of his technology spend to innovation. so his company runs better, and so does doug. dell. the power to do more. what's vanishing deductible all about ? guys, it's demonstration time. let's blow carl's mind. okay, let's say i'm your insurance deductible. every year you don't have an accident, $100 vanishes. the next year, another $100. where am i going, carl ? the next year... that was weird. but awesome ! ♪ nationwide is on your side at the united nations today, a defiant public demand for palestinian statehood and an urgent private effort by the united states and others to get some semblance of a peace process restarted. and quickly. the push for statehood by the palestinian president authority, president mahmoud abbas, came despite appeals from the obama administration that he give diplomacy more time. >> translator: i do not believe anyone with a shred of conscience can reject our application for a full membership in the united nations and our admission as an independent state. >> that palestinian request is vehemently opposed by israel and prime minister benjamin netanyahu told the general assembly that granting statehood now would be a statehood, not progress. >> israel is prepared to have a palestinian state in the west bank, but we're not prepared to have another gaza there. that's why we need to have real security arrangements which the palestinians simply refuse to negotiate with us. >> as that war of words played out, two dynamics worth noting. first, cheers for president abbas and celebrations as he made his case for statehood at the u.n. later, though, some clashes between palestinian youths near israeli checkpoints. you see them there in the west bank. also the so-called quartet, the united states, the united nations and russia, worked on a new proposal designed to get direct negotiations started again, they hope within four weeks. the goal is to have an agreement, a peace agreement, by the end of 2012 but the quartet's statement avoids the most difficult obstacles to peace talks now. palestinians, for an example, demand an immediate freeze of settlement expansions. israel demands recognition as a jewish state. so, hardly clear, this push to resume talks will actually result in productive negotiations but that didn't stop secretary of state hillary clinton from hailing it as a significant breakthrough. >> the quartet proposal represents the firm conviction of the international community that a just and lasting peace can only come through negotiations between the parties. therefore, we urge both parties to take advantage of this opportunity to get back to talks. >> let's take a look at how these different perspectives play out on the map. essentially, if you look here, this is the border of israel, roughly along the '67 border, but you see in this area here in the west bank, you see yellow shading. that's because israel has security control over much of the west bank area. what do the palestinians want? well, they want an independent state, that had this land here, the palestinians want east jerusalem and the gaza strip. in negotiations in the past, they have tried to negotiate some sort of land swap that gives them a contiguous state that involves some of this land so the palestinian territories would be connected in the state. that is what they want. let me clear that up. one of the big obstacles, israel has built a wall. you see it here squiggling here, sometimes eight or ten miles in from israel proper into the west bank areas. that's a security wall built for security purposes. it alienates, to say the least, the palestinians. then this. this is the biggest hang-up. these are all israeli settlements. you see israel proper here, the west bank here, all these israeli settlements, many of them still expanding. a huge source of contention. the palestinians want any expansions stopped immediately before they agree to go back to the peace table. all of these issues, you have seen this map for decades, a short time ago, i discussed the obstacles to peace with the israeli ambassador to the united nations, michael orr. >> mr. ambassador, thanks for joining us. you heard president abbas today. he says essentially there's an arab spring all across the region. why can't we palestinians have our independence? we have been waiting so long. he says the old ways, waiting for negotiation, haven't worked. why is he wrong to go to the united nations and say we haven't been able to negotiate this, so just grant us statehood? >> well, first, good to be with you, john. the answer is very simple. by declaring a state unilaterally, it won't bring about peace. it won't bring about stability. it won't bring about the same type of benefits that people protesting in the streets across the middle east are struggling for. there is no shortcut to peace, john. you got to sit down face to face, israelis and palestinians, and work out the difficult problems. we do have some very difficult problems, but as prime minister netanyahu told the u.n. today, he's ready to do it, ready to do it today, and meet with president mahmoud abbas in the u.n. building to reach an historic peace. he held out his hand and he hoped that the palestinians would accept that hand. >> he held out his hand but he also said, i want you to listen to some of the prime minister's speech, i know you're quite familiar with it, he was going through a litany of some of the issues and brought up the very difficult, always contentious issues of settlement. here's the prime minister's take. >> the core of the conflict is not the settlements. the settlements are a result of the conflict. the settlements have to be -- it's an issue that has to be addressed and resolved in the course of negotiations. >> if we were having this conversation five or six years ago, i think some palestinians might say, okay, i get the point, those were there. but as you know, a burning issue for the palestinians is the continued growth and expansion of settlements. would the prime minister, is there any gesture he could make, pulling back some, shutting down some, any gesture he could make that maybe would convince the palestinians he means it when he says let's sit down, let's talk? >> well, we froze settlement building for ten months to get the palestinians back to the negotiating table, john. they didn't come back. so that gesture is not going to work. i think that the prime minister said today that he had been discussing with the united states some ideas about moving forward. there were some things there that were hard for us. there were some things we knew would be hard for the palestinians, but he's willing to take that step forward, too, even though it's difficult to get the palestinians back to the negotiating table. >> as you know, it's not unfamiliar to you, israel sometimes gets beat up in the court of public opinion, certainly at the united nations. i want to read to you a bit from a "new york times" editorial just today. "the main responsibility right now belongs to prime minister benjamin netanyahu of israel who refuses to make any serious compromises for peace. he appears far more concerned about his own political survival than his country's increasing isolation or the threat of renewed violence in the west bank and all around israel's borders." that is the "new york times" there. and i want you to listen here, mr. ambassador. bill clinton, former president of the united states, considered, i believe you would say, a friend of israel. listen to the exasperation in his voice right here. >> but sooner or later, everybody's going to have to come clean here. if the current government has decided that there will be no palestinian state and that they have no intention of having a reasonable settlement on the west bank, they should say that so the palestinians can get on with their lives and they should live with the consequences. >> it's not just the palestinians, sir, who are skeptical that the prime minister genuinely wants peace. >> well, i have nothing but respect for president clinton, but here you have the prime minister of israel, who in his first public address, he was the leader of the likud party now, came out and embraced the two-state solution. he gave that ten-month unprecedented moratorium on new construction in west bank settlements. and by the way, the word "unprecedented" was the word the secretary of state clinton used to describe it. he removed hundreds of roadblocks and checkpoints from the west bank to facilitate a very remarkable palestinian economic growth there. he eased up on restrictions going in and out of gaza to get the palestinians back to the negotiating table. this is a person who has done one thing after another to try to get those negotiations restarted, and i'm hard-pressed, and i think you would be hard-pressed to think of anything the palestinians have done except to refuse to go back into negotiations. it's quite tragic. >> the prime minister made an important point in his speech, that we left gaza and look what we got. do you worry at all though, if mr. abbas does not get negotiations, does not get statehood, that over the course of the next weeks and months, his political support in the west bank could be severely undermined and you may get another gaza, like it or not? >> well, we hope not and we are preparing for all sorts of eventualities and we're preparing our security forces and preparing our population. i think that the palestinians can look at the situation in gaza, where there's no economy, no great future for the children and grandchildren of the parents of gaza. and look where they are today in the west bank, where there is a thriving economy, and there is a possibility for a much brighter future not only for their children, but our childre