>> chuck todd and peter alexander are in iowa tonight. >> abc's john carl in iowa for us tonight. >> we'll turn our critical edge on reporters in iowa and washington and especially the surge in negative reporting about ron paul. >> this the skeleton in ron paul's closet. this is from the ron paul newsletter. >> so you read them but you didn't do anything about it at the time. >> i never read this stuff. >> why did the press take so long to start examining the congressman's sometimes inflammatory record? i'm howard kurtz and we're kicking off the 2012 season onsome reliable sources." happy new year to all of you. it's obviously not a holiday for much of the political press gearing up for actual voting of 2012 after a year of prediction and prognostication. after treating ron paul as an entertaining side show they reacted to his rise in the polls the same way michele bachmann, rick perry, herman cain and newt gingrich shot up in surveys by belatedly examining his record including incendiary and racist news letters that were published under his name for years. >> there are racy and racist things. >> quote, it sure burns me to have a national holiday for that pro communist philanderer. i voted against this outrage as a congressman. what an infamy ronald reagan approved it. we can thank him for annual hate whitey day. >> we're constantly told it is evil to be afraid of black men. it is hardly irrational. order was only restored in l.a. when it came time for the blacks to pick up their welfare checks. >> pretty strong stuff. joining us from the state capital in des moines to examine coverage of caucuses, political correspondent for "the new york times." national political reporter for "the washington post." here in washington, a.b. stoddard, columnist for the newspaper, "the hill." the question i asked at the top, why did it take the media so long to seriously begin digging into ron paul's record. >> i think for a while the media -- we've been focused on the horse race. as you mentioned, everything happened this way. every time there was a new front-runner, and we've had almost five or six front-runners, the media would then start more dogged scrutiny of their record. i think that's what happened. a lot of this stuff had already been out there. when ron paul started to do so well, polling well in iowa, doubling a lot of support from 2008, that's when the spotlight finally fell on him. i will say in talking to people out of his rallies, raucous rallies, he's had a lot of people, hundreds of people there. they don't seem to mind some of this rhetoric. they feel like it's a little disturbing but not a deal breaker in terms of how they feel about supporting him. >> i'm sure some think the press are gaining up on ron paul. this stuff out there, your newspaper just a week iraqui ran its first piece on these news letters, saying we're recycling something in the new republic in 2008. why wait all year to do that? >> well, look, i think there's some legitimate criticism leveled at the press for waiting, for not maybe putting this stuff out earlier. look, you've covered for years the problem of dwindling resources the media has, a struggling industry. i think in that context, news organizations have to make some decisions about where they put their resources. it makes sense to put your resources, investigative resources of which we don't have all that many in the places where it looks like it's going to make the most sense, which is the people that are actually getting traction. >> i understand that but al .b. stoddard didn't take an investigative team to find out it was written about. i have an impression the press gives a pass until you're the front of the polls. >> this year was particularly unique, there was a new flavor every month, sometimes you didn't even get four weeks. they would focus on the person topping the polls. as ron paul continued to gain in iowa, we heard more and more about his superior ground game there. people continued to write him off, the other campaigns as well as the press. once he was really a threat and possibly a third party candidate who could help re-elect president obama and newt gingrich began to fall, then the focus went to ron paul. i don't think his supporters care that much about what they learned in that new scrutiny. >> an interview that got a lot of attention was when cnn asked ron paul about those news letters and others as well. let me play a little of that and we'll ask questions on the other side. >> i was probably aware of it 10 years after it was written. it's been going on 20 years people have pestered me about this. cnn does it every single time. when are you going to wear yourself out? >> it's legitimate. it's legitimate. these things are pretty incendiary. >> because of people like you. >> no, no, no, no. come on. some of this stuff was very incendiary saying that in 1993 the israelis were responsible for the bombing of the world trade center, that kind of stuff. >> good-bye. >> cnn got some criticism for the idea that suggesting the congressman had walked out on the interview. i didn't see that cnn didn't characterize it that wachlt you see the guy taking the microphone off during questioning. my question to you is when ron paul says because of people like you this is seen as incendiary is he engaging in the time honored tactic of blaming the press? >> yes, that's exactly what he's doing. the people i talked to didn't really blame the press. they felt like, a, maybe it wasn't that important. or maybe it was and he should come out and at least say something about it. good for gloria for actually getting an interview with him. in covering him over the last few days he doesn't really answer questions. there we are in a gaggle shouting questions to him and he doesn't really answer. here is a guy all about constitution, freedom of the press and liberty and all those things who really in terms of dealing with the press has had a blackout in terms of answering questions the last couple of days. >> he does do tv interviews but isn't accessible to reporters on the trail. a number of shows this morning including fox news sunday where host ron wallace asked ron paul about a book he published four years ago and quoted from it. let's take a lo. >> in that book you wrote this, the individual suffering from aids certainly is a significant, frequently a victim of his own lifestyle. this same individual victimizes innocent citizens by forcing them to pay for his care. question, congressman, do you still feel that same way? >> well, i don't know how you can change science. >> to your point about dwindling resources in newsroom. again, i don't think it would take an investigative team to buy the book ron paul wrote in 2007. again, i wonder why this is being brought up so late in the campaign. >> i think those kinds of things probably should have been brought up sooner. the dynamics of these campaigns, look, we saw the same thing happen with rick perry's books where folks as soon as he got in started looking at that. that book had been out for a year. you certainly had instances reporters have dug through mitt romney's book as well. i think you've got a legitimate point in terms of the criticism. i think this is one of those examples. if ron paul wins this caucus we'll look at ourselves and say maybe we should have done it earlier. >> if ron paul wins this caucus, a.b. stoddard, one from the conservative national review, the caucuses will be discredited because it produced a winner who in the view of a lot of people who analyze this game for a living can't win the nomination, kind of a fringe character. his supporters would certainly take issue with that how can you cover caucuses and say if this guy wins, then they don't really count. >> it's interesting, back in august ron paul himself says if i win the straw poll in ames it will be written off as a joke. if i don't it will become very important. >> he came very close to winning. >> very close, lost by 150 votes to michele bachmann who is now struggling to matter in the caucuses. i think ron paul knew all along he was being ignored by the press. >> he complained about it. >> considered by the press and other campaigns. exactly. he is getting his moment in the spotlight. as i said, i don't think his supporters care all that much. he is a serious threat to the establishment. they are very worried he'll win in iowa and get some momentum from voters in new hampshire and get a head of steam going. that is why you see the establishment saying this will be a joke and we can write it off if ron paul is the victor there. >> it is interesting he spent so many months complaining about lack of media coverage. then as he says, not accessible to reporters on the trail. i didn't see him take questions in weigh a few weeks ago. mitt romney can't complain about lack of media coverage, maybe too much from his point of view. especially this moment the other day when he had an emotional moment being asked about his mother. he talked about his mother who had bipolar disease and depression, going into a facility. here is what he had to say. >> brain science comes in directly from dealing -- got me emotional. of dealing with the real problems of real people in my family. so it's not a theory. it's, in fact, my mother. >> nia, the guy tears up talking about his hate mother. it seemed like an emotional moment. why the rush by the press to play it again and again and again and turn it into some sort of viral event which has a potentially huge impact on the campaign. >> that's a captivating moment. i have to say, i was down at the camera again so i could see it again. it's moving every time i see it. this whole idea of whether or not it will change the campaign, everybody is thinking what happened with hillary clinton, muskie in '72 when he cried after there were some things written about his wife. in those instances they definitely did change the course of the campaign. i think for gingrich, because they sort of fed into narratives or changed narratives at least for hillary clinton, who was seen as a little detached, there she was crying so it humanized her. i think for newt gingrich, his problem is he's had negative ads dumped on his head, calling up questions about his ethics and record in congress. he hasn't had a problem of whether or not he's a real humanized figure. i don't think it will necessary matter in terms of that. again, a real youtube moment. >> maybe a humanizing moment a.b., dehumanizes us we're doing political analysis because the guy choked up talking about his mom. >> these guys are running for the highest office in the land. they are under intense scrutiny for their policy positions, personal life and story. newt gingrich has been a tough guy about his divorces, adultery. he's been frank he's asked for forgiveness but he doesn't seem to ever get ruffled. it was an emotional moment talking about the subject of mental illness. i think it gets played against as nia mentioned with hillary clinton, not only was it a surprise but they are about to begin the voting process for this huge campaign for the white house. they are kind of breaking down. they might be tired. i think it's a news worthy moment. >> a peek behind the armor. when we come back. does a blip in the polls really amount to what some are calling a santorum surge. rick santorum has struggled for a share of the media spotlight all year. after moving up to third place in several recent polls, 15% of the poll last night, the former senator found himself this week onned "today" show. >> we've seen the surge in the latest poll. you're now in third place. there's really only one person that predicted this all along, you. >> my wife. hold on, my wife did, too. my wife predicted this one. >> fair enough. >> mr. santorum was a better prognosticator. the media not giving santorum the time of day all year long. now he's moved up in the polls and suddenly we're all over him. you're the most poll-driven bunch i've ever seen. >> the truth is, you have to go by something in terms of devoting time and coverage. if you came out here in iowa months ago, you would go to events for mr. santorum, nobody would show up, few people would show up. he was below single digits. i mean, look, the voters are casting about for somebody to support. lots now are supporting santorum if you believe the polls. so he's going to get more coverage. >> is there a tendency and we saw this with herman cain and others, for the press to prematurely write off somebody who is in single digits who is doing the old-fashioned shoe leather thing that so many candidates have money off in iowa this year and then to actually be shocked when they have some traction. >> absolutely. that's essentially what happened. let's face it. santorum didn't have much money either of that's one of the reasons he was largely written off. we have a couple days now to drill down on his record and see what we can find in terms of more coverage and investigative reporting on him. but yeah, we've got a snapshot. it looks like he's surged, in first or second place. he surged. i will say sarah palin seemed to predict this a while ago. there was all this chatter among hard core conservatives, rush limbaugh to be one to say santorum is a guy that should really be looked at. i will say this recent poll is almost a poll that came about as a result of your poll. you guys did that poll. it came out wednesday or thursday that showed that santorum had this surge. you wonder if voters if they are looking at who to choose in these polls had the cnn poll in mind. >> nia kind of anticipated my next question a.b. stoddard. because the bump came so late in the game, the final days, we haven't seen a tough examination of his record as we have seen with gingrich when he started to move a month ago. >> that's true. rick santorum, for those of us who have covered him for many years, he doesn't have a lot -- he's said a lot of things that would not shock conservative voters coalescing behind him. that's that. the question is at this point -- in defense of the media, he was at 3%, not even 9. really, really trailing, barely making debates for a really long time. he's going to face -- even if he has a surprise in iowa, which i long predicted he might have because of ground operation he's running, he's going to have a big struggle to capture momentum going forward and raise money quickly. i think what it says ultimately, says a lot more about mitt romney than it does rick santorum that he's the last person voters could flock to. that's why he's surging so late. >> back to my des moines guest, all the time you're bracing cold weather in iowa, is it possible in the end maybe 120,000 people vote. maybe ron paul wins and he fades, that iowa doesn't matter all that much in the scheme of things? >> i think it's a really good question, a perennial question. people in iowa hate that question because they love the attention. they hate it. but if you talk to veterans, people soho have been here years and years and years, political folks, they say the question comes up every time. people muse about whether this the last time iowa is important. it always seems to become the same thing. i think it's a legitimate question to ask. i predict four years from now i'll be asking it again. >> anyway, half a minute to break. the difference this time is that many of the leading candidates didn't spent a lot of time going to coffee shops and going to town halls. there are the claim to fame, face tough questioning at the retail level didn't happen except with a couple of people like bachmann and santorum. >> that's exactly right. i think mitt romney may have spent two weeks total going back to may. they wrote it off for a long time. he's peaked here at 22, 23, 24%, which is where he was at before. one of the interesting things to look at in terms of coming out of iowa is the ways in which these candidates sort of have to pander to iowa's conservative voters. one of the most interesting things mitt romney said yesterday was this whole thing about the dream ad. democrats are loving the fact he got up there and said he would eliminate the dream act. >> up next are a couple of staff defe defectures from michele bachmann's cam maybe worth so much air time? you never take an upgrade for granted. and you rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. and go. you can even take a full-size or above. and still pay the mid-size price. i deserve this. 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[ding] [fans whirring] announcer: chill raw and prepared foods promptly. one in 6 americans will get sick from food poisoning this year. check your steps at foodsafety.gov. sorensen defected this week from michele bachmann to ron paul's campaign. this was almost covered on the air like a mini watergate. >> this is about money. this is about money. >> political director left, too. >> you'll have to talk to him about it. clearly there are other people that kent sorenson talked to he told the ron paul campaign is offering him money. >> no one, not ron paul, anyone affiliated with his campaign or associated with his campaign offered you any money to support ron paul. >> i was never offered a nickel from the ron paul campaign. >> ken sorenson gate, sounds like a media thing. >> if a candidate's measure in the polls, why would we care michele bachmann is dead last. it's interesting for several reasons. she won the straw poll in iowa. we all thought it was going to propel her to a top tier candidate status. also this person went to the ron paul campaign. the establishment pick. that made it interesting. ultimately this is interesting because michele bachmann, is iowa important we talked about before. it's the great eliminator. she might be finishing last, might be the end of her campaign. >> despite the fact it got attention, fun, saw it as a metaphor for the struggling campaign. >> i think that's right. the washington press did a great story on how this was sort of evidence of the broader themes that are evidence in the race. i also think, let's face it, it's a story that was happening when all the press core was assembled in des moines, easy to cover. i thought it was somewhat overdone. our paper treated it a little less. we didn't make a huge deal out of it. after all, she's candidate, as a.b. said that's at the bottom of the pack. let's face it, who cares of the voters don't care. >> i'm wondering whether the media interpretation what happens will be more important. expectations campaign, santorum finishes third, ron paul, how much is the media take and spin going to influence the way this is all reported? >> i mean, it will matter a lot. but again a week later we'll be onto something else, new hampshire. some candidates are peeling away from here to go right to south carolina. it will have something of a lasting effect for two or three or four days and then we'll switch out to new hampshire. >> those two or three or four days could affect new hampshire and other states as you well know. i guess the short answer is you're not a winner unless we certify you. we certify you as the winner a.b. stoddard in des moines, michael shear, nia henderson, thanks for stopping by on new year's day. more on whether the press has given ron paul a pass on policy this time especially with the former aide saying his approach to foreign affairs is off the wall. later shock troops in the trenches, television campaign ad beds. and i'm thinking, "shouldn't you have more energy than me? you're, like, eight!" 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