time, since before the stimulus plan, that the stimulus plan would keep unemployment under a certain amount, grow the economy this amount. they have heard a lot of things that didn't happen, whether it was because the economy was worse than what they thought it was, whether it was because it was the wrong remedy or not enough remedy, whatever the reason is the american people are now skeptical that washington, including president obama, can do much to change things. i think that's what's reflected in the polls. everybody wants to see it before they believe it. >> those same polls show just three out of ten people feel they are better off today than they were ten years ago. we know congress has a lower approval rating than the president. these are one national polls. there's just one national election. if the economy doesn't improve, can the president win? >> yes, of course, anything can happen. that question, are you better off today than you were four years ago, i bet you hear again. that was a famous ronald reagan question when he ran against jimmy carter. the right track, wrong track is extremely important and tends to mirror what's ahead when it comes to elections. let me tell you how the white house sees this happening. i can give you many where they thought it would happen before and the exact opposite happened. george h.w. bush, first gulf war, a tremendous success. everybody thought, hey, he's in. he lost. maureen barracks blown up right near the election, we thought he's going to lose. boom, he won re-election. things change. there is that. we don't see much changing in the economy even by the white house's own predictions. what we're looking at can they sell, as ronald reagan did, the trajectory of things. can we sell things are getting better. not where we want them but on the right path that's where we have to go. >> the president, the big fund-raiser this week, he said his chances of being re-elected in 2012, they are better than his chances of being elected in the first place. sort of telling his supporters, come on, there's a long time nobody thought a guy like me could be elected in the first place. he was trying to inspire confidence that way. diane swonk, she joins us. americans are not motivated to spend. no increase in july retail sales, how important is confidence here at this stage of the economy? >> there's no question on the margin confidence matters a lot. unfortunately we have a very marginal economy. it is important. remember, we saw retail sales flat line along with employment. we also saw wages decline in the month of august. consumers have a real reason not to be confident right now and to be more pulling back and be more cautious in their spending. so although confidence is very important, and i think certainty going forward for businesses, especially in hiring, trillion dollars in stimulus on the sidelines they are hoarding on their balance sheets, they need the confidence to have some kind of path going forward, even if it's hard. they just want some clarity. they can negotiate potholes in the road ahead as long as they are there. >> diane, is it the president's job town lock confidence? can he do that? does he have the key? >> nobody has the magic key. if they did, it would be unlocked. certainly one aspect, if we could come up with a long-term deficit reduction plan with some tim lsu to at least maintain the status quo and stop us from going under water, that would help businesses, consumers, some idea, some vision about where we're going, i think that could lift a little bit on the margins. frankly, like i said, when you're growing marginally that helps. >> greg, potomac research greg. the president laid out his plan, hasn't given him a bounce in the polls, long battle with congress already you said way. when will it be fair to judge if the policies work? >> he's almost running out of time right now, i think, christine. you would have to make a counter argument listening to what you guys are saying. what if things get worse instead of better? what if the unemployment rate drifts higher? that could occur. you've got the solyndra scandal, solar company. that could get worse. a big fight with the palestinians at the u.n. most importantly a situation in europe that hasn't come close to bottoming. you add it all up. yeah, things might get better for him. there's a greater chance things could get worse. >> you bring up the solyndra scandal. i want to bring candi in. the president went through as an example of competition, taxpayers on the hook. $19 billion in unemployment checks wrongfully issued. these do not inspire confidence in the government spending more money. >> no. it's the drip, drip, drip that either one of them -- we don't really know what went on with the solar power company. we're not really sure. so far no one proved anything illegal. here is an administration that came in saying we'll be transparent. know all this stuff. we'll be different. looks like the same old stuff. at the very least, this looks like the same kind of somebody gets a good deal and taxpayers feel like they always get the shaft. so it just adds to the general feeling of, you know, washington is the same old place and they never do anything. that is bad for anyone who is running for re-election, the president included. >> dinah, wall street poll found one in three chance of slipping into another recession in the next year. that's the worst odds they have given since the recovery took hold. i mean, i guess on the other side of that, that's two and three chance we don't slip into a recession. clearly how does that affect confidence when we're hearing so many affected by the recession. >> i'm a little higher than my colleagues in the economics profession in terms of europe, europe, europe, containment versus contagion. i think it's very important. these are issues, we have to be honest. i always have hope. i'm an optimist. if you grow up in detroit and you manage to survive it, you've got a lot of optimism in the world. that's what i am, an optimist. that said we've got to find a lot more unite in europe and the united states. our problems are not insurmountable. they are sur mountable. the clock is ticking. as greg knows, the unity in washington isn't there, europe as well. they need to get ahead of the curve rather than behind it. washington has the same disease. the imf made it clear christine lagarde out there pushing. let's face it, we're all in the same economic boat. if we don't have our oars in the water at the same time we're going to be in trouble. >> want to talk about the president preventing, did he, economic disaster. did he make things worse. s are things as bad as it seems. perception versus reality in this economy and president next on "your $$$$$." nice wheels. oh, thanks. keeps me young. hello there, handsome. your dinner's in the microwave, dear. ♪ where do you want to go? 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unveil new policies. >> would that be treasonous. sorry, cheap shot. what more could the fed do politically, a lot on the right questioning what the fed has done so far. how many more tools does it have in its toolbox. >> two things they could emphasize purchases of longer term securities driving rates down further. number two, this is very controversial, i think they will at least debate the idea of getting more liberal on their inflatii inflation target. >> diane, what do you think. >> i think operation twist named in 1961 after chubby checkers version of the twist is get that twist in duration, the longer term thing. that's what we're seeing priced to market. the fed may disappoint in this meeting in september. i'm a little hesitant, although there's many people who want to go for it. dissenters are still allowed and may take until november to do it. i think they will do it, operation twist, buying longer term securities. in terms of large scale assets changing inflation target, i don't think that's on the horizon, just too risky for the hawks at the fed to stomach. i do the fed is not done yet. they are feeling enormous burden central banks the world over of trying to carry a very fragile recovery in the developed economies. >> in the world we live in, three of us live in, we're talking about the fed and what the fed could do to operation twist, central banks do to keep dollar borrowing in europe and the like. here in this country people talk about what president obama, what he's doing, he alone, his handling of the economy. a lot of people say he's doing a better job of handling the economy than congressional republicans when lou at polls. they hold president bush more responsible than president obama in the mess we're in. in making a case for others that blame the economy, has the president left the impression with voters no one is at the wheel in washington preventing the economic bus from going off the cliff? >> i think to the contrary and to his own detriment, the president said a while back, hey, if i don't begin to turn this economy around, bring this deficit down, if i don't do the following things, i'm going to be a one-term president. you're going to hear that a lot. i assure you, that's going to turn up in republican commercials. he laid out the things he needed to do about the economy and the country. in terms of the perception of it, i think when people look at washington, they look at the gang that can't shoot straight. while it's totally believe they don't believe -- republicans have a lower approval rating than the president, it's omzs and orange. the president will be running against one persona national poll. what matters to those congressmen is how people in the districts feel, why over 60% -- actually over 70% of the people get re-elected. their district tends to like them. it's not the same sort of looking at it. i think in the end when you look at how people view washington they look at it as a big glob that can't move, not this guy and that guy. they are disgusted with washington in general. bad news if you're an incumbent. >> they look at congress and others shooting at each other. 2.4 million jobs overall, the loss as president obama took office in 2009, it's a number -- lots of numbers like that reminded by conservatives, say this president is the reason the economy is doing what it is, not that the president is trying to mitigate a bad economy. is that what the president will be judged on next november? >> i think so. diane and i talked about this, obama probably made things better. it could have been a lot worse. he stopped hemorrhaging, as diane says. most voters don't want to hear that. most look at policies and conclude they haven't worked. >> one last time, people say things in polls, because there's a lot of negativity around them. we see this sometimes in consumer confidence. people say they feel terrible, look at spending numbers and they are fine. how much is perception, how much is reality. give me your real feel on what's happening in the economy for the middle income earner. >> i think in this case perception and reality are one in the same. we do see times when you see a major break between the two. a good instance is 9/11. we saw confidence actually shattered and the economy moved into recovery after that on the flip side as cannedi pointed out the surge in confidence we saw in president bush and in consumer confidence after the initial iraq war, and then he didn't get re-elected, economy wasn't growing enough, the economy is worse than it was, certainly during much of the last decade. it's not been a grade decade in general. what the recession revealed is the reality we were ignoring once credit stripped away, loss of middle class. it's easier to buy a car than it is to buy a house. unfortunately we have people living in cars. that reality is hard to escape. rising ranks of poverty, particularly among children, rising ranks of people living in poverty, working poor. i think all of these issues are real issues. so perception and reality not that far apart at this stage. >> you get the last word. >> let me point out in politics very often perception is reality or is taken as reality because to go back, when you look at the father george bush's first and only term, the economy had begun to turn around in the summer before the election. people didn't feel it. it didn't matter. no matter how many times. it wasn't enough. i don't feel it. still feels like the economy is bad. perception does matter in politics, sometimes stronger than reality. >> nice to see you. thank you. the president wants money to create jobs. congressional republicans are hardly ready to sign the checks. this is web-based trading, re-visualized. streaming, real-time quotes. earnings analysis. probability analysis: that's what opportunity looks like. it's all visual. intuitive. and it's available free, wherever the web is. this is how trade strategies are built. tradearchitect. only from td ameritrade. welcome to better trade commission free for 60 days when you open an account. i tell you what i can spend. i do my best to make it work. i'm back on the road safely. and i saved you money on brakes. that's personal pricing. president obama wants his american jobs act passed on the hill. he'll need support from republicans in congress to get that done. that has the president questioning the intentions of some on the right. >> they supported this stuff in the past. but they are thinking maybe they don't do it this time because obama is promoting it. give me a win. this isn't about giving me a win. this isn't about giving democrats or republicans a win. it's about giving american people a win. >> will cain is a cnn contributor. if the economy turns around by 2012, it greatly enhances the president's chances for re-election. is it fair to say republicans will benefit from the congressional motto just say no. >> i can't even play with that, this needs to be called out. the president's jobs plan is good and a farce. it's good because there's things in there like infrastructure investment to agree on. we need to be realistic about how many jobs and how quickly. it's a farce, what drives it is keynesian economic that government spending boosts demand. he says we'll pay for it with tax increases which beats demand. he's betting his spending multiplier is higher than tax multiplier. it's a farce. politically he knows this won't pass. there are places, room for compromise, corporate tax reform. he chose something he knows the gop will oppose. he did it so it would fail and he can paint them as bad guys. >> let's listen to what speaker of the house john boehner says. it's not politics that would cause him to hold up the american jobs act. it's policy. >> some of the president's proposals i think offer an opportunity for common ground. let's be honest with ourselves. the president's proposals are a poor substitute for the president obama growth policies that are needed to remove barriers to job creation in america. >> okay. roland martin is a contributor. disagree with $147 million in new stimulus, does president obama really have an economic record to prove republicans wrong here. >> how in the world can you continue to sit here and say oh, we've supported these things in the past. but now we don't necessarily like it. this makes no sense to me. this is the fundamental problem when you talk about how did you come to a conclusion. i crack up when will said, well, he put something forward that he knows will fail. the point is you put together your best proposal and duke it out. you can't even guess what they think on the opposite side. they thought the debt ceiling and speaker said, no, we don't like it. it makes no sense whatsoever. this is actually the gop being object stinnent. there are republicans on the record in the political piece that say we don't want to give him a win. that is shameful rhetoric. >> hold on. i see you bristling. i want to bring in ben white, correspondent for politico. both sides want to convince they care more about creating jobs. election 13 months away but job crisis going on now. anything to expect the gridlock ends up soon. >> the short answer to that is probably no you even see democrats talk about harry reid has not shown urgency bringing things up in the senate. he sees writing on the wall. he knows republicans won't support more infrastructure spending. it's not entirely fair to say they supported them in the past and don't support now. some of the things in the past, they say it didn't work. giant stimulus, still have 9% unemployment. it was a failure. some of the tax cut cut, extension of payroll tax credit extending it to employer and employees, that's possible that could get passed. it won't make much of a difference. infrastructure spending isn't going to happen. we almost shut down the country because we couldn't raise the debt ceiling. we're not going to have a big agreement on jobs plan soon. >> this is a problem when we say the stimulus plan failed because unemployment went down. what about the idea we were on an upward trajectory, had we not done it, we would be -- >> i talked to somebody at treasury that said, look, you really would have felt it if we didn't do it. again, with this new jobs plan they say if we don't do it, you will feel it. if you do do it, it's going to help. we don't know how much. that's hard to sell people. hard to quantify a negative. >> that's right. seems like a convenient excuse. i do want to disagree with ben on one thing. i do think there's room for compromise. infrastructure isn't such a stick in the mud republicans will oppose cart blanche. i think you could fashion an infrastructure package they would come around to if on the other side you offered real tax reform. what president obama put out there, he knew ahead of time they will not agree to this. therefore, his whole proposal was designed to fail. >> these are the