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just an incredible man. >> we all owe him a great debt of gratitude. >> absolutely. we now go to chief white house correspondent for politico with the "playbook." this morning you guys are looking at two very different strategies of how the candidates plan to win on november 6th, mike. >> well, happy debate day, mika. and wow! what a fantastic crowd there. the two strategies are momentum versus the map. romney has big mo. he's on offense. obama has the map. he's on defense. this piece by glen thresh and jonathan martin points out that the big obama hope is that this is like the spring of '08 in their race against hillary clinton. she had late in the race momentum, but she was stopped cold by electoral map and a superior obama organization. that's the same thing they hope to do now.
>> and also -- >> it never forgets. 33 out of 38 counties in ohio with auto parts suppliers directly affected by the auto bailout. it's made a huge difference. >> and china's also been a leading indicator, harold, for some time. you remember five months back, you had the governor of ohio whose numbers have gone up a great deal over the past six months, bragging about how great ohio's doing economically, and mitt romney going, don't do that. >> don't say that. >> ohio was actually ahead of the rest of the country as far as turning things around. the right track/wrong track moving closer to 50%. and we may be seeing that may still be a problem for mitt romney. >> i hesitate to embrace john heilemann's point often, but i have to this morning. >> you've got to. >> the car manufacturing issue is so critical. that's why their jobs numbers come down. that has been the most complicated, confusing and contentious issue i would imagine inside the romney campaign because how do you talk about job growth, improving
slight exception to what you guys just said. the negative advertising, mitt romney did a huge favor for himself. barack obama failed in denver. and a lot of the damage that had been done was eradicated. not all of this, though. and there's a reason why president obama still is doing better in ohio than he's doing nationally. it's because a lot of that advertising has, in fact, worked on the margins in ohio. we're now talking about a very small set of undecided voters. you ask what they're going to do next. i think they're going to try -- and they're already showing signs with the advertising in ohio -- can they make mitt romney continue to pay a high enough price for the auto bailout. that could be a high enough turnout. is to continue to hammer mitt romney. that's what their new advertising is doing in ohio. hammer him on opposing the auto bailout, white working-class voters, especially blue-collar women in ohio, very concerned about the economy, hammering romney on that and continuing to highlight, as the president has, the differences on lilly ledbetter, on planned parenthood. if you talk to white blue-collar
but it doesn't really matter. if he wins ohio, by virtue of winning ohio, he will win at least one of the other five. >> let's take a look at some of the other polls among women voters. take a look at this. the president's lead is shrinking. now down to eight points. it's the smallest lead president obama has had with women voters all year. among men, mitt romney holds about a ten-point advantage. when asked which candidate is better prepared to create jobs and improve the economy, the republican candidate has a four-point edge. last month he had a one-point lead. however, when asked what the nation's economy will do over the next 12 months, only 9% believe it will get worse. that's the lowest number the poll has reported in decades. and when it comes to the direction of the country, 41% say the country is on the right track. the highest number this poll has recorded in three years. so there are a lot of different messages happening here in these polls for sure. >> there really are. michael steele, conflicting evidence? >> yeah.
win ohio at any cost, add wisconsin and nevada, you've won. that's their game. the romney game is more offense. he's been able to move to a more positive message. he's able to look at more states. and it's funny, the romney folks tell us that they've been slow to catch on to just how clearly the surge is moving their way. they didn't believe the polls for so long because it's only been in the last 24 hours. and as you guys did at the top of the show, really connecting the dots to show how clearly all the external signs are moving in romney's direction. >> it's amazing. >> tonight, though, mike, politico also writes that this could be mitt romney's toughest debate. of course, that lowers the expectations for mitt romney. he didn't handle the libya question last time, and you wonder whether he'll be ready tonight. this should be his toughest debate because foreign policy has been a trap for the romney
carter in the middle of the iranian hostage crisis, ted kennedy jumps in the race, everybody assumes kennedy's going to win that race. he criticizes the president on iran. and he takes a heavy hit in the democratic party because of it. you're just in a difficult position when you're debating foreign policy with the commander in chief. >> you're absolutely right. so one thing mitt romney could do is connect foreign policy and national security to the economy. in the long run, the united states will not have the resources it needs. we won't be able to set the example. we will not be able to lead in the world unless we restore the fundamentals of american power. deal with the deficit, economic growth, get education right in this country, get infrastructure right. what mitt romney needs to do is draw the connection between national security and economic success. and it seems to me that's the way he can outflank the president rather than having a national security debate. >> mike allen, thank you so much. >> thank you, mike. >> have fun in florida. >> talk to you tomorrow. thanks. coming up, game six of the
instead, well, notes not talk about that is basically the republican posture. i think that they take what joe is saying, that americans are war weary. >> extremely. >> they want diplomacy. they want negotiations. and i'm not sure you're going to see mitt romney beat up on them tonight. but the thing to your question, there could not have been tighter sanctions, i don't think. and when they say -- when rubio and others say that it was the republicans and other countries who led the way on sanctions, this administration, to its credit, got the central bank sanctions and got the europeans to do the oil sanctions. and if iran is finally willing to talk about it, it would be only if the ayatollah makes that decision, it's only because the economy has collapsed. >> he's the commander in chief, but the republicans in congress did push as well. there's no doubt about it. he was a little slow to the game. he put great sanctions down, but he was also pushed, richard, hard by republicans in congress. >> you actually have bipartisanship working here,
off-site voting at these campus rallies. the students are a big, big thing for them. and getting to what richard haass and the council on foreign relations did with their study that condi rice co-chaired, economic security and national security issue, that is almost a better argument for mitt romney tonight, harold. i think both candidates will try to make that argument, but mitt romney might be able to articulate that argument better than barack obama. >> and mika, following up on what andrea said, if we wake up the morning after and barack obama has won this election, he will have won it because of turnout. i mean, it am comes down to turnout. we're looking at these polls and trying to figure out what's going to happen. the big question, mark, it turnout. if they have a turnout like 2004, barack obama wins. if they don't, mitt romney wins. >> and joe, remember, that's what they've done for the last year and a half. >> right. obsess on that. >> the advantage of incumbency
economic opportunity in ohio, when you have the kind of prosperity they have, and you know it's because -- largely because of what president obama did. i will say this. this china thing is serious in ohio. one of the reasons that number is closing, for romney to make the ridiculous and irresponsible statement that he will declare china a currency manipulator day one on the job not only rattles people in business, it rattles businesses around the globe. not just u.s. business. businesses around the globe because of the impact, the ripple effect that will have across the global economies. china contracts the world is impacted. it's problematic. however, it works politically. it works politically in ohio. >> it does work on the ground. the other real problem that romney is going to have tonight is that his differences on most of these foreign policy issues with obama are nonexistent. and if you're doing debate prep and you've got one adviser who says no, you know, you're in about the same place and you've got another on the far right, a neoconservative saying you've