contracted at least -- contracted by the least amount in three months. the news is supporting some hopes that the world's second biggest economy will avoid a hard landing opinion guys, that's why we're seeing green arrows once again. >> and one of the big stories this morning, eu anti-trust regularitiers wronging the merger of nyse euroneck and deutsche boerse. the nyse says in light of the decision, it is in discussions to terminate the merger. meantime, it's planning to focus on a stand alone strategy, announcing a $500 million repurchase program. nyse's ceo, duncan niederauer is going to joins. i was with duncan in davos. i think there was an expectation that this transaction would not go anywhere. i'm not sure that there's that time options for them. at the time they pursued this transaction, there was a lot of consolidations. the london stock exchange wag tries to do a deal. none of those deals came together and i'm not sure we're going to necessarily see this all rev up again. we do have a merger sxert on our set who might be able to talk more about this in a moment. we haven't been able to introduce her yet because she has another story. joe is -- i don't know what joe is doing there. >> we had great viewers. we talked about the python and how deer were disappearing. >> in the everglades. >> i have a picture of a python with a deer and it has a picture of his head put on his body where the deer is passing and it's this big, the body, and the head is that big and -- >> we were having a serious conversation about the deutsche boerse. >> you're having a serious conversation. >> and there you are with the python. >> not only that, but i saw a deer this morning that -- >> i did, too. i almost hit one. >> but what if it ate one of those? >> the and lerers? >> yeah, that won't work. the other big story this morning, facebook is expected to file for the an ipo as early as today. the company expects to raise as much as 10 billion. at that amount, the company would be valued at 75 to 100. which is what we've been saying all week. kayla toucausche joins us with full report. i saw this report where he has a salesman saying, look, we're taking our final orders for facebook right now. and he agreed to come on camera for that. >> you know what that was? >> what? >> it's a private investor. >> but there's a secondary market and there's a whole slew of people out there who have been trying to buy up shares like this before the ipo. even with this filing -- >> the guy -- >> well, we're going to see the leads will be separated from the chapel out of these funds for separate vehicles that were set up to raise facebook shares. i think they have put up this front to investors and said we can promise you shares of facebook at this price. once they get public, we'll be able to see which of those were telling the truth. >> but we can go back and check what the guy says versus what actually happened, right? >> right. and her point yesterday was there is a very fine line about what you can do to market these securities. at what point does, you happen, does it become too much of a promotion? and so you could argue with these e-mails that the guy, dprank migola was sending out to his potential investors, he was making valuation estimation. so that was one issue. but we have news on what we're expecting to happen today. we're expecting facebook to file a perspective for $5 billion, which is smaller than some had expected. but remember, a lot of times what waez on the front of these documents is just a place holder. if you're facebook, you can do a $5 billion mark and have it just be a place holder there. so i guess the good news is you'd rather underpromise and deliver rather than having it too large and have to pull back. >> right. what i'm most interested in seeing is what percentage of the company they're willing to put out there. we saw groupon do 5%, zinga to 2%. and even though facebook has about 2.5 billion shares, what percentage of that are they willing to public out to the public market? that will be interesting. as far as the underwriter, morgan stanley, we learned how they won the top spot. jpmorgan, goldman sachs will be go leading the deal with them. there is possibly this idea that more could be add. you think about gm, $20 billion deal. they had ten underwriters. zinga had six. it was a $1 billion deal. groupon had 14 million. if they find along the way they could -- >> don't you think that it's going to expand -- i would assume we will have 15 underwriters when it's all done. >> i think you could make that assumption. but at the same time, they might be wanting to play a little closer to that. >> is there anybody who really got stung by being left out, who thought they were going to get a part of this underwriting? >> you can allegation argued goldman sax. i think the other one was gold mans. if this is the limited group that stays that way, leaving them off the prospective is a big deal. >> hold on. did you see goldman sachs is now part of the -- >> no, no, they are. >> got it. >> i remember the other part of herb's report was that we expected it at 50 and by november you'll be able to sell it at 100. >> i've seen the e-mail. >> do they come in -- >> and it's not always about twitter. >> does anyone know that it's coming at 50? does anyone know then you'll be able to sell it at -- it looked so bucket choppy, it almost reminded me of a letter from nigeria. oh, don't tell me that wasn't real. >> sorry. >> yeah. kay kayla, thank you. >> thank you. let's take a look at the markets this morning. the futures are indicated higher today. the dow futures are up by about 90 points right now. s&p is up by 9 1/2. and this is larmly because of what we've seen out of china overnight. take a look at oil prices right now. check out and you'll see right now oil prices up by about 71 cents. that's still below $100 even after all the concerns out of the middle east. 99.19 is the latest trade. the ten-year has been well below 2% on the yield. still down there at 1.825%. today we get some numbers. today is adp. we'll get the first glimpse of what we might get expecting on friday from that big jobs report. if you take a look, the dollar is down across the boards. the euro trading right now at 1.3124. >> well, romney pounced yesterday. i guess this is a big story, what we're calling here on the teleprompter as a land slide. i've seen a lot of different conjectures. the one thing i saw on the mainstream media was that he won, but independents didn't like that negativity and that could come back to haunt him. i'm starting to realize, sometimes negativity can work in a campaign. have you ever seen a positive campaign win? it's hard, isn't it? >> that's why they do it, joe. according to studies, about 90% of the ads we saw in the last week of the campaign is that the ads were negative. politicians try to distance themselves from it and say, with i don't like doing it, but at the end of the day they do it because that helps them win. this year we've seeing the super pacs. now they can have even one more hands off distance between themselves and what's going on on the air waves, joe. >> yeah. and most of the time, you expect the rival to say, i'm staying in. and no one ever says, gee, i'm thinking about getting out. they will always say that. they say it until they don't say it. but, you know, with gingrich, you may stay in it just to be able to continue really -- even if he knows, and i wonder about ron paul, how many times you go through it about you get 7% every time. but the motivations of different candidates are hard to pin down sometimes. >> look what sarah palin said the other day. and with ron paul, he's a message candidate. he never expected to win this thing in the first place. he's in there to get his libertarian message across to as many voters as he can. and rick santorum, he's the alternative gingrich. no reason for him necessarily to drop out immediately, either. >> if santorum did drop out and his votes went to newt, that would have been a much, much closer race in florida. >> that's right. they're sort of splitting the anti-romney vote right now with a 14-point vote margin -- 14-point margin, excuse me, for romney last night. but yeah, if you had santorum and gingrich heating up, that could be a real threat for the campaign, especially going into the deep south states where gingrich is expected to be stronger here than he was in florida. there's a lot of ego and a lot of personality involved in this as well as pure mathematically calculation. there doesn't seem to be any love loss anywhere in this campaign. this was really personal between romney and gingrich and you also sense that santorum doesn't like gingrich all that much. and i'm the guy who doesn't have any baggage. i'm the guy we ought to have as the anti-romney here in the conservative camp. and you almost get the sense that santorum can't get an idea that people are flocking to gingrich the way they have so far. >> i don't know whether primary voters really care about wasting a vote, either. sometimes they just -- they figure they can do it just to make a message. at this point, i mean, it's eventually gets an air of in d inevitab inevitable. i wonder what the point is, it's really to make a statement in these subsequent states. >> that's right. when you look at the type of people who show up for primaries, the voting percentage is low overall. it's pretty low in primaries. what you get are really committed people, people who follow the news, follow the development, they're into these campaigns, into these candidates. they're not into the idea of wasting a vote. they want to go out and rote for ron paul. they want to make a point. >> in florida, something like 70% of the voters are up to 50. >> yeah, right. that's why some of the campaign stops what the happened at retirement homes. >> they know what they're doing. >> very sensitive to the age discrimination thing. you wait until you're out of the demo. i could get a nielsen count. >> i have a groundhog day moment. >> how about harwood, were we not -- huh? mid march, looking good. >> the only thing is, if santorum did drop out of it and gingrich was able to take his voters or vice versa -- >> i never know about gingrich. he could come back like 13 times or something. i mean, because i remember payne wrote an article about him after he lost his first campaign staff and that was like a year ago. why? it was, stop messing around. and he's come back three times since then. >> wait me up in the summer and we can talk. >> it's interesting, i looked at it and romney is close to 90 now. to be president, moved up a little and president obama is coming down ever so slightly from 55 to 53.9. >> quite a race. >> yeah. both of them have $800 million. if you think this was negative. but he was 5 to 1 against ring rich. wait until eye 5 to 5 and they're just sitting there watching tv. just one after another, back and forth and back and forth. socialists. >> it's going to be a long year. >> socialist versus 1%er. >> fantastic for the tv business. >> yes, you're right, for advertising. >> right. >> right now, it's time for the global markets report. we want to get to ross westgate standing by in london. ross, a lot of the trading activity today has been driven by china. what else are you seeing moving things in europe right now? >> yeah. well, we had china pmi data today which suggests we have a soft landing. hard landing may be off the agenda. is i'll come on to that. ahead of the u.s. open, becky, we are at about the best levels of the day. advancers outpacing decliners by about 9 to 1. the ftse 100 was up around 2%. xetra dax up over 9% for the month of january. up another 2%. we're up to the session high at the time moment. cac 40 up 1.6%. the ftse mig up 2.4%. we've had data out today showing manufacturing pmi for the month of january, final print, still showing contraction will be at better than flat. the point is, everybody else was contracting. apart from germany, their pmi numbers were up. you also have gdp data. credit still contracting in the eurozone apart from once again germany. we also had an auction out in germany this morning. the bond yield, the second lowest ever in the euro area for german bund. 1.4%, pretty respectful. ten-year bpts, firmly below 6%. 5.76% showing you that undoubtedly confidence towards the next flight has returned. we had a surprisingly good number out of pmi today, manufacturing 52.1, stronger than anybody expected. the uk will avoid an official recession. back to you. >> all right. >> great. we'll talk to you a little bit later. for now, we'll take a quick break. squawk europe saying no go to that nyse and deutsche boerse merger. >> what? >> theater. we'll talk to duncan in this ederauer after the break. plus, watch shares of amazon today. investors punishing that stock after the online retailer's quarterly results disappointed. consumers spent more online this past holiday soap. but amazon's numbers fell below expectations. "squawk box" coming back right after this. we were just driving along,er comin' back from the lake,ng. and all of a sudden, ka-plam. it blindsided us. what is it? our college savings account. how do you think it happened? not sure. i think something we bought a while ago turned out to be something else, annnnnd, i remember a lot of other stuff in there had the word "aggressive" in it. is everyone okay? well, now, yeah. who knows later. ♪ welcome back, everybody. the month of january was good for the stock markets. were starting with more green arrows. right now, the dow futures up by 89 points. the s&p are up by 9.5. in our headlines this morning, gambling revenue and macau jumping by nearly 35% in january. this is the world's largest gambling destination. it was helped by a record number of chinese visitors during the lunar holiday. joe, back over to you. coming up, strike averted. refineries reaching a last-minute deal. that could have boosted gasoline prices. and later, mr. trump sounds off on the gop presidential race. first, though, as we head to break, a look at yesterday's winners and losers. 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[whispering] big dreams. welcome back, everybody. amazon warping that it could lose money in the current quarter. anthony dicolinti follows amazon for barclay's capital. anthony -- >> good morning, becky. >> some disappointing numbers yesterday and in overseas markets this morning. what is the biggest part of the problem? is it the warning that we could see an operating loss for this quarter? >> i think if you think about amazon stocks, revenue is flowing and second of all, we're in the midst of margin compressi compression. third, it's a stretched and extensive valuation. so it's very hard to justify at these levels. you know, i think one of the problems here is that amazon has always talked about its principal as being about the customer, about serving the customer and people love amazon because of the low prices and the selection and the belief is that if the customer comes, then shareholders will follow and stock will follow. sometimes when the customer whips, it comes at the expense of the profit margin of the company. that's really what we're seeing. that's really the debate that's going on is loyalty from the customer, whether it be from amazon prime and free shipping and things like scotch tape for free. is that something that generates customer loyalty? at what point do we see profits from that sort of business model come through for shareholders? >> and the company has always talked about investing in the future and they continue to do that. i guess that's not something you'd like to see change, but you are making an argument for maybe some of these free shippings offers to be cut back if it's not for high ticket items? >> yeah, well, i do think the company is doing the right thing in terms of investing. but it could be that these investments are in some way maintenance investments or cap ex investments. as they expand capacity, one of the issues is it's a retail model. so the dollar that they generate isn't any better of a profit margin than the last dollar that they generated. the investments are to expand capacity unlike other internet companies that we cover such as google, advertising in media models, where incremental revenue margins. amazon doesn't really have that. i think on top on of that, there's a media issue. declines in viddó games, sales, physical, sales of video games i think also dvds and cds may have played a part there. that's an issue. really north america media is swelling. digital is start to go make up for tholg those physical declines. we haven't really seen downloads to rent, downloads to buy, movies or tv shows. >> anthony, the market agrees the stock was down over 7% in the after hours yesterday. but what price do us, okay, it's all been factors in? >> you see, it's tough. it's 100 times this year's earnings and actually, even if you look at 2013, which is really how we get to our new price target of $190, we've got to use a free cash flow multiple of 25 x 2013. and so a lot of folks look at that and they say, in order to justify that, i think the wall street journal used the word altitudeness of valuation. i think it's going to take either impressive revenue growth continuing or an expansion of margins to grow into that multiple. and that's really the debate right now for amazon. >> anthony, thank you very much. good talking to you. >> thanks, becky. >> as we've been sduk discussing all morning, with europe blocking the nyse deutsche boerse deal. thank you guys for joining us this morning. >> hi. >> so the deal is off. there was appear expectation, i think, over the past couple of weeks that it was looking like it was going in this direction. but my larger question is, you pursued this transaction because we talked about how it would help you grow the business. now that you don't have this transaction at hand, what do you do? >> i think that's a great place to start, so i'll start and john michael can add to it. obviously, we like the stand alone strategy because the results proved that that was a good strategy. i think we thought we had a game changer. it was strategically sensible. we thought it was instructed properly. unfortunately with today's outcome, you know, we're disappointed, but not surprised as you pointed out. it's on wards and upwards from here the. >> from the beginning, we always said this deal would accelerate the execution of our strategy. of course, we are disappointed, but the company is in good shape. sxlept products, excellent management teams. so the companies can focus now on full execution. >> in terms of trying to push it through to regular listregulari that this deal is off the table, are any of those concessions that you had offered up still back on the table as a stand alone? >> i think we've always had the deal that the stuff we proposed was consistent with our views as a company and where we thought the market should go. so you guys are right. i mean, what's ironic about this i