>> also, we've got something very unusual that's happening in mt. rainier. there's been a murder of a park ranger and they're looking for this person. they feel like he's escaped on foot at this point and have had to actually rescue some of the people that have been camping. we'll tell you more details about that. >> the fat weather service says blizzard condition in the great lakes could make the travel you're trying to execute impossible. >> isn't this like one of the busiest days of the year for travel. >> a lot got used to the warmer weather, you know, the nice conditions and -- >> snap out of it. >> bam, wake up. >> hey, guess what you'll have to snap out of that pre-election lull. we're down to 36 hours before vote time in iowa. talk about shaking hands. i wish they had a shake-oh-meter to know how many hands had been shaken buffett the polls started opening in the iowa caucuses. we have numbers for you. some are surprising. "the new york times" says it is the worst los angeles has seen the 1992 riots in arson fires. police are releasing surveillance video showing what they call a person of interest. seeing it there on your screen, 39 fires are said to be linked to a serial arsonist. casey wian is following all the developments for us live in hollywood this morning. we understand police executed a search warrant. is that true? >> reporter: that's what's been reported, zoraida. we have new developments to report on the actual suspected arson fires themselves. we arrived here at the command center about an hour ago, spoke with an arsing investigator who said so far tonight everything was quiet. well, in the last 45 minutes, things have definitely changed. four confirmed fires we're told linked to automobiles near carports in the los angeles area. the fire department has responded to all four of those scenes. they're trying to determine if incendiary devices were used in those fires which is what happened with those 39 other fires over the last couple of days. my producer stan wilson just informs me that there is another incident that they are -- that the fire department is responding to where several vehicles in one structure are on fire as we speak. so this night that began very, very quiet. has now turned very different. arson investigators are responding to multiple incident, zoraida. >> do we have a description on this person of interest? >> reporter: well, the one person of interest that they have put out that video that you showed early is described as a white male, balding, but with a pony tail. he was seen emerging from a parking structure, an underground parking structure in the hollywood area not too far from where i was standing walked with his right hand in his pocket and walked with what appeared to be a limp. now, it's interesting, this is the only person of interest that they have shown video of, but there has been some speculation, i guess, that maybe more than one person is involved and given the fact that they're looking at five different fires they're responding to in the last 45 minutes, that would seem to support that theory. >> we also understand that the police are asking the public for help and they're actually offering here a sizable reward. can you tell us about that? >> reporter: so far $60,000 reward is being offered and, of course, they are asking for the public's help. they're asking anyone who recognizes the image of this person that they've distributed to the local media here to contact police and they're also telling people to be careful and lock their cars overnight. zoraida? >> casey wian live in hollywood, thanks for those details. we've got another developing story on the horizon right now, as well. this is really strange. killer on the loose in mt. rainier park and listen to how this actually transpired. routine traffic stop, ranger tries to stop a car, car won't stop. so she wires ahead to set up a road block and the person who was setting up the road block was a female ranger, 34 years old, mother of two, gets out of the car and suspect shoots her dead. suspect shoots the ranger dead and then flees on foot. they've got a suspect in mind, here's the ranger, 34 years old, mother of two, apparently married to another park ranger in mt. rainier, as well. the suspect they're thinking of, benjamin colton barnes, the name we've been given. he may also be connected to the shooting of four other people over the weekend at a party. we also hear that he's got survivalist skills and that he's got military experience. you can see from the pictures and surmise what else we know about him. here's something else, all the folks who have been in mt. rainier park, camping, visiting over the holidays, many of them had to be rounded up, taken to the visitors center and kept us police escort. we're told they're being evacuated but don't know at this point if they've all been evacuated or how that's going or whether they're under guard because he's sniper style and concerned he's still on the loose. >> a very scary situation there. unbelievable. >> there's like two feet of snow on the ground. so when they're able to use that to their advantage to track him or whether that's tougher because as the snow keeps falling those tracks keep getting covered so snow a problem and for us in the northeast, as well. >> apparently this big chill is coming to the northeast and you know we have gotten so comfortable with warmer temperatures so over two feet of lake-effect snow on the way that may affect people trying to get home from the holidays. i love that it makes news in january. >> rob marciano is joining us in the extreme weather center. >> welcome to cnn. >> thank you very much. we're happy to be here. >> it's nice -- i swear to god -- >> just meeting. >> and full disclosure we're just meeting right now. >> a good machine, cnn, we're all over the world. >> you've been working hard for the last several months. >> no, we just showed up. >> you're a new dad, too. we found out about this. my first e-mail picture when i was on the job was you with your newborn baby. >> we try to keep everyone informed about the breaking news. >> how are you doing? >> we're doing fine. >> can we do this? >> yes, it is news in january to have snow because it's been such a mild winter. you would think by this time of the winter we would see some serious snowfall totals across, well not only the northeast but midwest. typic typical band effect. you see the rotation of that white. we haven't seen much in the way of white as far as snow goes across the northeast certainly the past two months, it's still mild in new york, 42, 40 degrees in d.c. that cold air will pour down to the south and east. blizzard warnings are up for parts of the u.p. of michigan and upper hand, as well. 12 inches of snow expected in some of these areas. with winds blowing 30, 0 miles per hour blizzard conditions blinding visibilities. 10 to 20 inches in the favored lake-effect areas, maybe a couple of feet in syracuse or watertown. cleveland, you'll see some delays because of that snow and wind. visibility will be bad. windy across new york metro and the windchills will bring the temperatures down as will the actual temperatures be dropping throughout the day. the high term of 40 in new york city will be short-lived as cold air filters. midsection looks good. pasadena rose bowl happening later. toasty there. another storm moving in across the pacific northwest and the winter classic, temperatures will be dropping had and that blizzard happening across parts of michigan, finally snow and winter weather across the northeast. >> rob, thank you for that. we'll have to talk more to you because we do love weather stories. love you. i'm trying to make nice with my new colleagues. okay. so i don't know. have you been doing the math, the countdown? it's like christmas for us or holiday time or hanukkah or anything else we celebrate. when the primary and caucuses come, news media go crazy, 36, 34 1/2 -- >> it's two days until we know who won the first caucus at least in this entire race. it's iowa, folks. what did you get me? you know, we might have a sneak peek. of course, we have polls coming out all the time. 64 republican iowa insiders, state politician, business leaders, politico, all the people in the know in that tate and got some numbers for you on who they think will finish first. are you ready? not a big surprise, mitt romney, 63% of them think he will take the first spot, 27% think it will be ron paul and are you ready for the this, the guy surging in the poll, rick santorum got nada, doughnut, a little odd because actually in the last two days of last week's polls he insured up. john aft john avlon and also erick erickson, the editor in chief of redstate.com. ruben from "the washington post" and we have at host of "get right" with lenny mcalister. john, want to start with you. i like that insider thing that cnn did but it's not reflective of the polls everybody else is doing including cnn, so what's a girl to think moving into the last 36 hours? are the polls right, the insiders right? >> as you just said, the insider poll is just that, a poll of insiders in the state of what will happen and does reaffirm a lot of the other large polls that is that mitt romney is in poll position. ron paul can't be counted out. his supporters are so intense. caucuses are low turnout high intensity affairs. rick santorum getting the doughnut hole is a surprise. 60% of the turnout last time in 2008 which made mike huckabee the winner -- >> erick erickson, they often say and i'll repeat it that there are only three tickets out of iowa and the third ticket is pretty sought after and most people were assuming that it was going to be either rick santorum vying for that spot or gingrich but now we're not sure what to think anymore especially with the big fat doughnut on the insider poll. what should we think? >> it depends on ron paul. john mccain came in fourth in iowa and was the nominee for the republicans. ron paul discounted that with his support. depends where it comes from and the other ground game. i have been told there are several organizations on the outside and complains on the inside alt showing that it's a three-way race. >> perry, honestly? perry at this point? >> well, strong ground game that rick santorum doesn't have. >> he doesn't have those numbers. >> the campaign internals from several of the campaigns have it a three-way tie. even the des moines poll, perry, santorum and gingrich are within the same area. he's probably going to surprise everyone including the iowa insiders but can't discount ground games when there is no snow on the ground either. >> iowa is a big proponent of figuring anybody who works hard and does retail politics will do really well in iowa and we have without cuisine rick santorum been the benefactor of that. ruben, maybe you can weigh in why rick perry hasn't done better. he had a thousand captains who were going to be, you know, taking part in fewer than a thousand actual poll locations. so that's pretty good. and he's been to a lot of places, yet he is doing numbers nowhere near what santorum is doing so why is that, by the way, let me add he's pretty conservative and pretty religious. >> right, and most significantly as you mentioned he spent the most, outspent everybody else in iowa and still poll numbers, i agree with you, are not moving up. >> what is going on? >> i think the competition is too stiff. once he surrendered the top spot because of his debate performances, i think paul began to surge and he's being elbowed out of the way. i do think it will be the same three names, paul, romney and santorum, but i think the order will be reversed. i think rick santorum will do very well. possibly win iowa with romney in second and paul will get the third ticket out of iowa. >> lenny, let me switch gears but at the same time i still want to work polls into this. that is newt gingrich who hat really struggled to put it mildly in the last week and a half. is the great experiment of going nice a dumb idea and why would you experiment in iowa? >> well, it's not a dumb idea. newt gingrich did not do a whole lot here for the straw poll in august. if you're going to experiment, experiment here. it's a long-term strategy. it's not a short-term strategy. if you play nice and move forward and rye to be that presidential figure that's above the fray you have to do that for the long haul. newt gingrich hasn't been very discipline the lately. what he needs to do is have the discipline to say this is what i said i will do. i'll stay positive but i want to do this going into new hampshire, i'm going to do this going into south carolina and i want to try to keep that momentum going forward with being positive and then regain those poll points hopefully with some better results, some better responses when it comes to dealing with the media and not letting these other candidates get underneath their skin. >> not the last we'll hear from you. thanks very much to all four of you. >> thanks. >> okey-dokey. it's 5:15 in the east and time to check in on the stories making news. >> i've been up for hour, trust me. >> police in los angeles have a person of interest in connection to three dozen arson fires during the new year's weekend. investigators say the man was spotted on surveillance video in several locations. there's a person right there. he is said to be in his 20s or 30s and wears a ponytail. >> a manhunt going on around mt. rainier, washington. actually that's in washington state. police are looking for a man they say shot and killed a park ranger while they were trying to stop him and then he took off into the woods. there's the ranger. there's the suspect. his name, benjamin colton barnes, he's believed to have military experience and survivalist skills and also think he is a suspect in a sunday morning shooting that injured four in seattle. >> iran says it successfully test-fired two long-range missiles on the final day of maybe war games. yesterday they tested their first nuclear rod strengthening fears it's on its way to building nuclear weapons. the u.s. stepped up sanctions against iran in december. it has not ruled out military action to stop iran's nuclear programs. >> so you always tell me you think i'm crazy for having two blackberries. >> no, it's a great idea. >> so is everybody else who teases me. and an ipod and an ipad and -- >> well, social media is you will at craze, right? would you think it is in iowa? >> i do. i'm a prairie girl. i think that's the greatest thing in the world for a disparate area of the world. >> i'm figuring how broadband works. we'll see some farmers and how it's working for them. also, something that we, listen, this will be funny stuff. could be a disaster but we have a very -- >> we'll try it. >> a very famous woman from a very famous political dynasty that will join us but she doesn't know it. we'll just call her and wake her up. and see if she ants her phone and want her to weigh in. >> we're worried folks will cuss. is there a button we can push? >> actually you'll be in on the joke all along. capital one's new cash rewards card gives you a 50% annual bonus! so you earn 50% more cash. according to research, everybody likes more cash. well, almost everybody... ♪ would you like 50% more cash? no! but it's more money. 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[ giggles ] will be giving away passafree copies of the alcoholism & addiction cure. to get yours, go to ssagesmalibubook.com. you know, i'm trying to figure out is that lenny kravitz. is that our music library. that will wake you up. getting an early read on local news making national headlines. this morning we have papers from maryland and utah. >> this is the kind of papers we have but i know that they have them in their communities. >> there they are. from "the baltimore sun." hawaii and delaware allowed same-sex unions. >> a know a lot find that controversial. >> it was very controversial in the state and called it a prime example of exercising civic courage. doing what is right. he did get a lot of opposition there. >> not even same-sex marriage. >> five states now recognize these union, washington, d.c. allows same-sex marriage. so, all right. congratulations. some folks very excited. >> you'll learn a lot about us in the coming day, month, years and hopefully decades. we're both moms and so this story is actually quite -- >> i haven't heard it yet. >> you better get your goose bumps ready. three kids in a car in logan county, utah. these three kids and the driver, look at the icy bank they went into. it was over on its roof at one point. the driver could get out but could not get the kids and kids were only 9 years old, two girls were 9 and a 4-year-old boy apparently passers-by helped this driver as he was struggling a way -- couldn't get the doors open so used a handgun to shoot open the windows of the car. the passers-by got three of the kids out. look, get the goose bumps ready. they were not in great condition but we are told now that they're all expected to recover. but, lord, can you imagine getting into that icy river. you should get awarded. >> that doesn't always happen. okay, it is 5:23. you can knock on more doors and shake more hands and kiss more babies than any other candidate has in history but in a rural state the best way to get people's votes may actually be the internet. so joining us now to talk about this michael libby, co-founder of central iowa bloggers and members of the des moines central media club, deb brown, larry sealer, an iowa farmer and an undecided voter. we have clair selsy, president of the des moines social club. >> they look freezing. >> it is a little chilly there. so, larry, we'd like to tart with you. when you think of iowa you think of farms, not social media. how are you using the social media to assist you with farming? >> we've got into social media as just a way of communication so we can get on our computers or cell phones and get ahold of our consumers and share ideas and start a dialogue. >> do you talk politics? >> we talk politics a little bit. it's kind of hard to avoid politics. that kind of decides everything that we do. it's controlled by the government. we got a lot of regulation and have to keep up with it. >> deb, if we can talk to you for a minute here, you connect all the farmers and small businesses. how does that work and is this new to rural areas or have you done this in other areas, as well? >> no, it's not really new to rural areas. we've been talking to each other for quite a while. the technology is a little bit new. using twitter, facebook, those are pretty popular and i think it's 57% of franklin county where i live is on facebook. it's the new party line. >> and, claire, you're the president of the des moines social media club. how is it different in was's largely a rural state? >> it's pretty amazing considering back in 2000 when there was the internet but no social media it's a lot more labor intensive trying to get political support for your candidate without it so i'm interested in watching ever since probably 2004 on to now, how social media has really caught on as an organizing tool, a fund-raising tool, and really just kind of 24-hour, 7 day a week organizer, i can imagine it's probably saving campaigns a lot of money and a lot of time. >> so, michael, let's talk a little about that. let's talk about how it has changed politics in the area. >> well, social media is one of those tools that business and politicians use on a regular basis to connect with their constituency. a scant six or seven years ago most of us thought a tech fnora tag was something kids in japan played with on the playground. so many are engaged in it for business and politic