"out front" tonight, party like it's 1984. today's job news might start to seal the deal for re-election. that's his hope. unemployment in america fell to 8.3% as the country added 343,000 jobs. >> the recovery is speeding up. we've got to do everything in our power to keep it going. >> which reminds us of another president who found himself in a similar situation during his re-election year. >> i am pleased to report that america is much improved. and there's good reason to believe that improvement will phenomenon through the days to come. >> reagan won on this. >> it's morning again in america. today, more men and women will go to work than ever bachelor in our country's history. with interest rates about half the record highs of 1980. >> tonight, we ask a question we asked before when the jobs picture improved the last time in our country. the last time when reagan was reelected, the unemployment rate was 8%. compare that to today's 8.3%. by the time the re-election rolled around the unemployment rate for reagan was 7.4% even though it was the highest for an elected president since 1972, voters felt the recovery was in full swing. this president in 2012 still has a tough road ahead. look at the pie of how many people lost their jobs since the recession began. 8.7 million people since 2008. under president obama we have regained 3.2 million of those jobs, about 37% of the pie. it's significant, a trend that if continues could be morning in america for the president. it is not easy. there's a long way go and gop presidential hopefuls are seizing the opportunity to remind him of that. >> this has been a tough time. i know the president didn't cause this downturn, this recession. but he didn't make it better either. he made it worse. >> the truth is if it gets better and better between now and the re-election, he will get some credit. on the other hand, if this is a lull before it starts getting worse, his re-election will be in enormous trouble. >> we checked that claim by newt gingrich. it's pretty interesting. i didn't know what we would find but we found more wiggle room for president obama. even though the unemployment rate fell dramatically in 1984, it rose again during the summer. october of '84, the last data voters had a few days before they went in to pull the lever, it wa was higher than in the spring. >> let's bring in our researchers. great to have you with us. pretty interesting as you comb through this data, five months in a row of job creation and drop unemployment rate, pretty good for this president in terms of re-election, isn't it? >> lower is always better. that's going in the right direction. that is a positive. if there is a flip side of that coin, reagan won with low 7.4 unemployment rate. bush 41 lost in '92 and carter lost and ford lost with similar types of unemployment rate around 7 1/2%. we had four elections with a 7 handle on unemployment and only one resulted in a re-election. >> you can look at it that way and say you have a 25% chance even if things are improving. jamal, i imagine even though the important doesn't want to sound excited has to be feeling really good. >> he certainly has to be feeling better. everybody in the country should feel better because everything is going in the right direction. when i see these numbers in the morning, the question that comes to my mind, what must they be thinking at the romney headquarters? are they celebrating that things are looking up or feeling down? i'm sure they have mixed emotions. it does make it tougher for the republicans to fight back. not only for the president but republicans running for congress they have a case to press with the american people, to help make this recovery stronger or stand in the way of it. i think if republicans are caught standing in this way of it, they'll pay the price in november. >> what do you think? it is possible, the sick thing about unemployment numbers, people who haven't looked for jobs in a while don't count and they start looking and the job market getting better, the unemployment rate ticks up which is what happened to reagan. >> that's absolutely right. that pie chart is a great way to think about it. we had a huge hit to the labor force participation in the country, meaning the number of folks actively looking for jobs working, that's still at a really low level in historical terms. it's not ticking up. it ticks up when people are more optimistic about prospects for finding work. in 2011 we had three great months of plus 200,000 job creation. february, march and april and then four months of sub-100,000 jobs a month. that's another thing that could happen. people are predicting we could see gas prices at $5 a gallon, a big wallop to the economy and seasonal adjustment to the unemployment numbers. that still remains to be seen. this is a good sign. the economy is doing better. robust exports and manufacturing. it's still uneven economy. some groups have much higher unemployment than others. >> how much are people moved by headlines of five months in a low, 8.3% going in the right direction opposed to focusing on the fact we could look deeper in those numbers and people feel they're underemployed, what a better job or want to work full time and are working part-time, that number is into double digits. >> no doubt it's emotionally driven. the stock market being up 150 dow points today, job numbers, all leads people to think things are getting better. that emotion will drive it. it's right to say participation rate is very low. 1.2 million people have left the workforce all together. if they decide to come back and look for a job, the unemployment rate would spike over 9%. economists would tell you it's a good thing, they're looking for work but a bad thing because it starts heading back up. emotions are working right now because everything is moving in the right direction. >> ironic it could hurt the president. i imagine that would cause great frustration for his re-election camp. >> i'm sure it would. it won't feel very good. i always said this from the very beginning and will say it today. this re-election is not a referendum on the president. a choice between barack obama and whoever the republican nominee is, looking at mitt romney. ultimately, look at 1992 and 1980, who is the more optimistic forward-looking sunny faced candidate, reagan in 1980, bill clinton in 1992. i think the president probably will be that person this year because mitt romney frankly has not really done himself any favors with his reputation over the last few months in the campaign. >> bruising battle. some people make the argument, then you're really ready for the final battle and some make the argument you're so bruised you can't fight there. it's interesting. this is a bizarre thing, if you're into omens and stuff, i don't like to admit i am but sometimes i am, we're on this gregoirian calendar, weird thing going on. it was this identical calendar. we got a jobs number, election day on the 6th, it will be the exact same way this time, sort of weird. bottom line, people will get a jobs number three days before they go to the polls. >> that will make a big difference as far as how everybody will react and that will make a big number. i'm glad you were talking about the gregoirian calendar and not the myan calendar to make everything meaningless after december. >> that puts a whole new slant on this election. >> there's also all the things about which team wins the world series and how that plays out. >> those ones, fine, those are just like omens. this one, i don't know, maybe there's a little bit more to it. thanks very much to all three of you. we appreciate it. >> thanks, erin. >> thank god i'm not a believer in the myan calendar, try to be more optimistic. breaking news in the doping case against lance armstrong, pretty staggering what we just discovered. violence erupting in egypt after that deadly soccer game. also americans kidnapped. the story and the ron paul revolution. >> once you become a ron paul supporter, you remain a ron paul supporter. idea vacations are always a good idea ♪ priceline negoti - - no time. out quickly. you're miles from your destination. you'll need a hotel tonight we don't have time to bid you don't have to bid. at priceline you can choose from thousands of hotels on sale every day. save yourself... some money oh, yeah? 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is it done? >> this is what it means. remember raymond donovan, the secretary of labor under reagan. he was investigated for years. >> going back to the gregoirian calendar. >> he was cleared. he asked a famous question. where do i go to get my reputation back? who do i see about that? it's a haunting question for those of us who cover and report all these accusations. lance armstrong has been investigated for years. nothing has come of it. this investigation is over. >> there are people who will always believe he did it and affects his reputation. >> you know what, it's just not fair. this guy is cleared, it's done, over. >> this is not saying he's innocent, didn't have enough facts. >> the justice department never says any is innocent. they don't provide bills of clean health. they say we cannot prove person x did y. the only thing we can say as journalists, the only thing we can conclude is there is nothing there. >> will they apologize to him? >> they don't do apologies. they don't. i'm i'm a former federal prosecutor myself. cas cases fall apart for several reasons. think how bad this is for the government. barry bonds, they investigated him for years. tried him. he got 30 days house arrest. the case against roger clemens fell apart. maybe it will be retried, won't. maybe this was not appropriate for criminal penalties. these cases have been disastrous for the government. they need to rethink how they do them. >> i guess he should be celebrating. i'm sure you're right. >> you can never get your reputation fully back. that's too bad. >> jeffrey toobin, thank you very much. >> violence erupting for a second day in egypt. at least seven people killed. more than 2,000 injured as protesters have been clashing with police. the uprising follows a deadly riot after that soccer game wednesday. 79 people were killed. police have been blamed for failing to provide any kind of security, stepping back and letting people kill each other with rocks and knives tonight, two american tourists freed. they were kidnapped by a tribal group in egypt. ben wedeman is following these stories in a very busy cairo. i wanted to start with the stories with the two women. what happened to them? >> reporter: they were two women tourists who had gone to st. catherines, next to mount sinai. they were on a bus that was stopped. apparently the kidnappers were looking specifically for americans. they took these two women off the bus and took them away. negotiations quickly began with the egyptian authorities in the area. apparently they wanted to have some of their co-tribesmen released or retried. we were told the egyptian authorities promised to do that and therefore the women were released just before sundown here in egypt. they're unharmed and freed now. >> i suppose that's a little bit of good news. you're in cairo tonight. 1400 people injured. 2,000 people around egypt as clashes are more widespread. what is your sense of whether this is under control or spiraling even more out of control right now? >> reporter: certainly here in cairo, it's been going around the clock since yesterday. those clashes continue until now. in fact, just a while ago, the egyptian tax authority building was lit on fire. it's not quite sure how that happened. the clashes continue here and they continue in suez, where we have at least four people killed. now, they've spread to the port city of alexand saandria as wel. it's not clear whether they will dissipate or get worse. >> do you have any thoughts of whether is the another revolution you can see the government fall? we started to see parliamentary electric electoral process begin in egypt. could this be derailed? >> reporter: it remines me the morning after hosni mubarak resigned. there was banner headlines that the people toppled the regime. what they realize is getting rid of him was not toppling the regime, removing the facade. things that make people gri like the interior ministry and police brutality and corruption, they want to see fundamental change. until that happens, this kind of unrest, whether sparked by football or something else is inevitable, it's going to continue. >> ben wedeman, thanks very much, reporting from cairo, late on a friday night. still to come "out front," escalation between israel and iran, one calling the other a cancer today. now, specific looks at the scenarios. how many planes does israel have? what routes could they fly? how big are their bombs? what could they really do? we looked. we have the maps and the numbers. we will tell you about it. next, the weather does a number on air travel, plus drones watching new york city? 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[whispering] big dreams. so it's been an unusually warm winter so far for pretty much everyone across the country. just when ski bums around the country finally had their prayers answered, fresh powder and snow out west. there's a problem. their trips are getting canceled. if you headed to the rockies, you had a big problem. you actually got the storm you're looking for. with over 9 inches and counting, over 600 flights were cancelled due to the snow. as our boss said, wow, a lot of flights going in and out of denver. people didn't necessarily expect that many flights going in and out of denver. there are. a lot of problems at that airport. which brings us to tonight's number. 19, the number in thousands of airplanes that can be in the air at the same time at any given time around the world. take a look at this animation. this is pretty cool. this shows time elapsed flight patterns over the united states from 8:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. so you can see it heat up on the east and move west. it's neat and actually kind of terrifying. when you are in one of those planes and you look out your window mid-flight. what makes you more scared the fact that you know there are thousands of planes out there and what is more scary the fact that it's one level below you or you should see more? with 19,000 planes in the air at the same time, maybe you would feel more comfortable to see some of them flying around. hmm. that's tonight's number. still "out front," the out front five, israel strike. >> dealing with an anywhere iran would be far more complex, far dangerous and far more expensive in blood and money than stopping it today. >> no charges so far. >> i would be shocked if charges aren't coming against joe today. all this "out front" in our second half. like whole roasted nuts, chewy granola, and real fruit. nature valley trail mix bars. 100% natural. 100% delicious. but proven technologies allow natural gas producers to supply affordable, cleaner energy, while protecting our environment. across america, these technologies protect air - by monitoring air quality and reducing emissions... ...protect water - through conservation and self-contained recycling systems... ... and protect land - by reducing our footprint and respecting wildlife. america's natural gas... domestic, abundant, clean energy to power our lives... that's smarter power today. in what passes for common sense. used to be we socked money away and expected it to grow. then the world changed... and the common sense of retirement planning became anything but common. fortunately, td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. take control by opening a new account or rolling over an old 401(k) today, and we'll throw in up to $600. how's that for common sense? we start the second half of our show with stories we care about. number one, the u.s. economya d added 243,000 jobs in february. unemployment down in the fifth month running of a drop. that was much better than expected. stocks surged as a result. all three majors averages up by more than a percent. nasdaq, levels not seen since december in the year 2000. number two, the fbi has launched a criminal investigation after confirming a hacking group recorded a call between the fbi and scotland yard. a law enforcement official tells us the conversation was recorded after an e-mail about the conference call was intercepted. the call was placed two weeks ago and involved an investigation into a hacking gro group. the official added no fbi computers were hacked. they are accused of hacking three websites r