and good evening, everyone. i'm erin burnett outfront tonight. the senate voting right now on the buffett rule. senate democrats called for a vote on the so-called buffett rule today. it is one of the president's election year priorities. it calls for people who earn a million dollars in adjusted gross income to pay a minimum tax rate of 30%. now, the left-leaning group moveon.org was chick to jump into the debate. target number one, mitt romney. >> when the wealthiest 1% pay a fair tax rate like the rest of us, it keeps the american dream alive for everyone. so tell mitt romney are cute. 1% fat cats that won't pay their fair share? not so much. >> okay. we did the math, though, and the buffett rule doesn't add up to keeping the american dream alive. it would raise about $4.7 billion a year in revenue. one-half of 1% of $901 million. that's the president's forecasted budget deficit for 2013. already those who earn over $1 million in this country pay a greater share of the income tax burden than everyone earning under $75,000 combined according to the tax foundation n 2009, the most recent data available, millionaires earn 10% of the income but pay 20% of income taxes. but, by the way, the republican talking points don't add up either. one of the main arguments against the buffett rule is that it would hurt small businesses, but only 1% of small business openers actually have enough income to qualify for the buffett rule. that's according to the treasury office of tax analysis. so overall here's the bottom line. 237,000 individual taxpayers in this country even meet the buffett rule cry tear yachlt one of them is john paul. he's founder of patron and a member of our outfront strike team made up of the country's top business leaders, entrepreneurs and innovators. good to see you, sir. >> my pleasure. >> buffett rule, would it upset you, make you angry or is it fair? >> if we gave an extra 5% and it went to really helping the people and not into government waste, we would do it. we would do it in a second. i think a lot of people are saying why should we add more to the deficit and to spending when it's not going to be spent correctly. the first thing they have to do is handle the deficit, not by taxing people more but being more efficient at what they do. i depend on accountants and administrators to do my detail stuff for me, but i do know the overall picture and i know if you put business people together in a room, not just politicians, they could shrink the deficit tremendously by good business tactics. so those that have the money will gladly give it if spent properly. make it a mandatory rule, if you make that big money, give 5% away to helping the planet, something that does not benefit you but those less fortunate. now that's what we could all live with. >> do you think then that -- it sounds like what you're saying there is something to this point of fairness. that yes, people who make a lot of money make so much money that on an absolute basis of course they pay more taxes than everybody else but there's still a fairness issue. that it's not fair compared to other americans. >> well, if you give somebody a bunch of cash and you want to do something good with it and you don't know what you're doing, like the government does a lot, you could lose a lot of money. in philanthropy, many of us give a little bit and each year we give more and more to see what actually works. if the government did the same thing, fabulous. but if not, if the government were to say to people like us, no matter what you're giving to philanthropy now, pay 5%, but you pay it directly to a cause that will help we, the people, all the people of the united states out and don't let the government control it, now you're getting something accomplished. >> let's look at the poll, people who favor this. this is a bipartisan thing americans agree on. yes, 90% of democrats favor the buffett rule but so to 69% independents and 53% republicans. so what are they missing? what would you tell them to make them not feel this way? >> well, number one, u.s. government, if you want more money, start learning how to spend it properly now and not wait until you get more money to do it. those that have money, why not work with the government to say, hey, let's take some extra money, but we, the private industry, help americans where they really need it. we could do with less red tape. we could do it effectively, efficiently and for a lot less than the government could do it. let us help. we are the government. we are we, the people. let us get involved. >> we do have a final count, 51 yes, 49 fail. mitt romney was overhead speaking at a private event over the weekend about tax deductions he would eliminate and he did identify one that a lot of wealthy people benefit from. that is a deduction on mortgages for second homes. a lot of these deductions that go to the wealthy seem ridiculous. >> erin, that's a cartoon. no disrespect to mr. romney, he's a very, very smart man. but if you're in the top wealth and are able to have a second home, you shouldn't be allowed to have a mortgage on it. buy it in cash, are you kidding? why have a mortgage on it, that's silly. you should be able to buy knit cash and not have a mortgage on it. there's a way we could help people out that really need it. deductions and things you don't need a deduction for isn't one of them. >> and what about what tim geithner said. you're talking about creating jobs and i know you have some specific efforts you spoke about on this show. tim geithner said that the economy is getting stronger. in fact the strongest it's been in years. is he right? >> it's starting to get stronger, but only if you relate it to the last three years that it's getting stronger. we monitor this in beauty salons. when the economy went bad, people went to salons but less often. when they start coming back, you see a change, it's starting to turn. i would relate that statement only to the last three years. however, is it turning like astronomically, no. it's doing it slowly. we have to do more to get more people to work and there are jobs out there. people just have to start taking them. >> all right, john paul, always good to see you. this is a man who is taking his train, yes, he has one, his patron train, to both of the conventions this summer to put his view of the world and creating jobs to democrats and republicans. >> america still works and we want people to know that. >> thanks very much, john paul. next, the first poll of the campaign released today. president obama is leading in literally every group except the one that could decide the election. and latest from the trayvon martin case. george zimmerman has officially asked for a new judge. and new developments in the murder mystery that's captivated the world. we have the story about why it could derail china's quest to be number one versus america. does aspirin even work on my headache? 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>> i think the polls are showing that mitt romney is more vulnerable than he'd like to be. but it's not hopeless. he can pivot like he did this week very easily to get back to those pocketbook issues that the women want to hear about. one thing we learned last week with the hilary rosen incident was that the women's vote is not monolithic. the fact that the president, the vice president, the first lady, head of the campaign, dnc, all lowered the boom on her so quickly said to me they see how volatile the women's vote is as well. we saw tremendous movement in 2010 during the midterms so it's not a hopeless situation for romney. i think he can turn this around. >> you're sort of looking skeptical there, michelle. >> the only thing that the hilary rosen nonstory showed us is that the mitt romney campaign is so incredibly desperate that it seized on a stray comment by a cnn contributor to convince us there's some kind of mythical war on moms. and then they don't even know enough to not to express their glee at the opening when they're having a fund-raiser. they talked about this was an early christmas present. the fact is that mitt romney's economic policies have always been really unpopular among women. he's lost the webomen's vote in every race he's ever won. he lost it in 2002. >> he won it in the primary, though. >> right, but in every general election he's lost it. and in those elections the social issues weren't particularly sail yengt because he was still pro-choice. the reason he lost is especially running against kennedy, they hammered him on what his economic policies were going to mean for women. right now those policies are pretty vague. he's pro business, but people don't understand that he wants to cut government even further. remember, most of the job losses that we've seen among women since obama has taken office have been government jobs. he wants to cut those payrolls further. >> it's interesting, although i have to say, if democrats coined more on women, now war on moms, i don't like to have a race to the bottom, but it's all kind of bs. >> it's going on, we're racing to the bottom. this is a completely manufactured controversy. the open mike slip that the romneys made acknowledged that fact. despite the thakt that they were fund-raising off that slogan, it's an attempt to play offense on an issue they have been losing. they have been losing because of policies going on in state legislatures across the country. >> contraception in texas? >> exactly right. so this is not out of nothing. so now they're trying to play offense. it doesn't seem to be helping yet. the big point is how incredibly cynical is it to be pumping up a manufactured controversy in an attempt to take away a negative that frankly you've earned and need to work your way out of. >> mary kay, let's go to independents now. mitt romney right now is losing to president obama by a five-point margin among independents, which as john avalon points out often 40% of the total vote, obviously many of them lean one way or another. that is five-point spread enough for the president or is that where mitt romney has to find his space? >> oh, i think there's a long way to go here. the election is seven months away. that's a lifetime in politics. there are so many wild cards that could still happen. when you think about right now the primaries are pretty much over. there's missouno more debates l. we have nothing between now and conventions in late august, early september. there's a lot of stuff that can still happen. the fact that mitt romney is that close this far out says to me there's a blank canvas and it's his to grab. >> or an etch-a-sketch waiting in the wings. >> or an e etch-a-sketch. >> talk about manufactured controversies. >> that wasn't even him, it was appear aide. >> the point is romney will pivot back to the center. this is romney 1.0, massachusetts version, where registered independents outnumbered republicans and democrats. there was a rush to the right and it ended up damaging the entire brand of republican independents so he's within striking distance and will have to build it back. >> but he's the leader of a party that's an incredibly far right party and they're watching him. they're not going to let him disavow the positions that he's taken in the last few months fighting this primary. >> thanks to all three. former presidential candidate john edwards is on trial for using campaign funds to shield his pregnant mistress. but they're having a lot of trouble getting it started. jury selection today, we have an insider. and pippa middleton caught with a man who pulled a gun on photographers. will the incident trigger gun charges for the royal family's latest wild child? 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[ yawning sound ] if you want something done right, then do it yourself. that's the idea behind our children, our future -- the ballot initiative to fix our schools. we've waited years for the politicians to do it. now, we can do it ourselves. our children, our future sends every k through 12 dollar straight to our schools... not to sacramento. it benefits every kid in every school, with local control of the money. that's why the p-t-a supports it. my mom likes it, too. so high-ranking power brokers and sex scandals always seem to happen, but lately there have been quite a few. last week former best buy ceo brian dunn stepping down after an ongoing company investigation into whether or not he used corporate funds to finance an affair. and then there's university of arkansas coach bobby petrino, let go because school officials found out about his much younger mistress he hired as an employee. and then there's john edwards. jury selection resumed today for his trial in greensboro, north carolina, where he faces six counts of felony and misdemeanor charges and a possible 30 years in prison. the 12 jurors will decide if edwards used presidential campaign money as a slush fund to hide at fair and the child that he had with rielle hunter. she'd expected to testify. hampton was in court today, a former north carolina deputy attorney general. he's blauogged about the edward case. let me start with rielle hunter expected to take the stand. is that expected? how key will that testimony be, do you think? >> well, she is expected to appear, erin. it will garner a lot of headlines and cameras. i don't know that it will determine the outcome of the case. both sides believe that her testimony will be favorable to john edwards. but this case at the end of the day doesn't turn on the sex scandal, the love child, it turns on, you know, somewhat complicated issues of federal election law. and so i also think it's a real issue of whether this jury will be able to relate to rielle hunter. if john edwards expects her to save the day for him, i think he's got a lot to be worried about. >> you've been watching john edwards in court as jury selection has been getting started. what's his demeanor? how involved is he? he's a lawyer himself. >> well, he's not just any lawyer, he's one of the most successful lawyers in north carolina history, arguably lawyer of national renoun before he became such a famous politician. it's extraordinary to see the defendant, the client in many ways serving as lead counsel. many times during the pretrial hearings, certainly when the jury pool was in the courtroom last week, john edwards was the one bringing his team together, filled with high-powered lawyers from d.c. and north carolina. so he's both client and attorney. >> we've seen this delayed because of his health. people have wondered how serious that is. physically, how does he look? >> well, he looked better today. i did see a bit more of the spring in his step. you know, he's looked at times kind of tired, for which sleep does little good. it's a situation that was of his own making. but i think he looked better, seemed to feel better today. >> hampton, how strong is the case? when you put it altogether, how strong is the case? and given the difficulty of finding a jury of his, quote unquote, peers, given the publicity of the situation, how likely do you think it is he'll go to jail considering as we said, it could be 30 years? >> well, i think it's quite likely this will be a working class jury. i saw with the pool in the courtroom more ball caps than neckties, more t-shirts than button-down shirts. it's the type of jury pool edwards connected with as edwards the lawyer, as edwards the politician. it's going to be tough as edwards the defendant. what he has in his favor, erin, is the lack of precedent for this type of prosecution. this is not edwards trying to sell an official act. this was not money that went directly for ads or for yard signs. and he's got former federal election commissioners willing to testify that what he did in their eyes is not a crime. >> all right. thank you very much, sir. we appreciate it. from inside the courtroom, howard dellinger. all right, so i was in the middle east last week and stumbled across a few very interesting articles. they were front-page articles in fact, pertaining something near and dear to me. her, the beloved. in the gulf news this headline, blackberry still a big seller in the uae. in fact research in motion we learned is negotiating a lease for 1500 square feet of retail space in dubai, where the blackberry rules, thanks to its instant messaging. now, i also discovered that new stores are opening elsewhere. research in m