is breaking news, the senate voting on the buffet rule and failing tonight. mostly along party lines. senate democrats called for a vote on the so-called buffett rule today. it is one of the president's election year priorities. it calls for people who earn a million dollars in adjusted gross income to pay a minimum tax rate of 30%. now, the left-leaning group moveon.org was quick to jump into the debate. target number one for them, mitt romney. >> when the wealthiest 1% pay a fair tax rate like the rest of us, it keeps the american dream alive for everyone. so tell mitt romney, kittens are cute. 1% fat cats who won't pay their fair share? not so much. >> okay. we did the math, though, and the buffett rule doesn't add up to keeping the american dream alive. at least when it comes to raising the deficit. it would raise about $4.7 billion a year in revenue. one half of one percent of $901 billion. that's the president's forecasted budget deficit for 2013. already those who earn over $1 million in this country pay a greater share of the income tax burden than everyone earning under $75,000 combined according to the tax foundation. in 2009, the most recent data available, millionaires earn 10% of the income but pay 20% of income taxes. but, by the way, the republican talking points don't add up either. one of the main arguments against the buffett rule is that it would hurt small businesses, but only 1% of small business openers actually have enough income to qualify for the buffett rule. that's according to the treasury office of tax analysis. so overall here's the bottom line. 237,000 individual taxpayers in this country even meet the buffet rule criteria, one of them is john paul digoria. he's founder of patron and a member of our outfront strike team made up of the country's top business leaders, entrepreneurs and innovators. good to see you, sir. >> my pleasure. >> buffett rule, would it upset you, make you angry or is it fair? >> i think if you look at it this way, if we gave an extra 5% and it went to really helping people, and not government waste, we would do it in a second. i think a lot of people are saying why should we add more to the deficit and to spending when it's not going to be spent correctly. the first thing they have to do is handle the deficit, not by taxing people more but being more efficient at what they do. for example, i'm not a detail guy, i depend on accountants and administrators to do my detail stuff for me, but i do know the overall picture. and i know if you put business people together in a room, not just politicians, they could shrink the deficit tremendously by good business tactics. so those that have the money will gladly give it if spent properly. if not, make it a mandatory rule, if you make that big money, you have to give an additional 5% away to helping the planet, something that does not benefit you, but those less fortunate. now that's what we could all live with. >> do you think then that -- it sounds like what you're saying there is something to this point of fairness. that yes, people who make a lot of money make so much money that on an absolute basis of course they pay more taxes than everybody else but there's still a fairness issue. that it's not perceived as fairly enough, as compared to other americans. >> well, if you give somebody a bunch of cash and you want to do something good with it and you don't know what you're doing, like the government does a lot, you could lose a lot of money. in philanthropy, many of us give a little bit and each year we give more and more to see what actually works. and not just throw money out there and see if it's going to work. if the government did the same thing, fabulous. but if not, if the government were to say to people like us, no matter what you're giving to philanthropy now, pay 5%, but you pay it directly to a cause that will help we, the people, all the people of the united states out and don't let the government control it, now you're getting something accomplished. >> let's look at the poll, this is very interesting. people who favor this. this is a bipartisan thing americans agree on. yes, 90% of democrats favor the buffet rule, but so do 53% of republicans and 69% of independents, which you identify yourself as one. so what are they missing? what would you tell them to make them not feel this way? >> well, number one, u.s. government, if you want more money, start learning how to spend it properly now and not wait until you get more money to do it. those that have money, why not work with the government to say, hey, let's take some extra money, but we, the private industry, help americans where they really need it. we could do with less red tape. we could do it effectively, efficiently and for a lot less than the government could do it. let us help. we are the government. we are we, the people. let us get involved and make a difference, not just pay. >> we do have a final count, 51 yes, 49 fail. so that is a fail, as 60 votes were needed to pass the buffet rule. what should we do, because mitt romney was overheard speaking at a private events over the weekend about tax deductions he would eliminate. and he did identify one that a lot of wealthy people benefit from. that is a deduction on mortgages for second homes. a lot of these deductions that go to the wealthy seem ridiculous. >> erin, that's a cartoon. no disrespect to mr. romney, he's a very, very smart man. but if you're in the top wealth and are able to have a second home, you shouldn't be allowed to have a mortgage on it. buy it in cash, are you kidding? why have a mortgage on it, that's silly. you should be able to buy knit you should be able to buy it in cash, not have a mortgage on it. there's a way we could help people out that really need it. deductions and things you don't need a deduction for isn't one of them. >> and what about what tim geithner said. i'm curious about this. you're talking about creating jobs and i know you have some specific efforts you spoke about on this show. tim geithner said that the economy is getting stronger. in fact the strongest it's been in years. when he did the weekend talk shows. is he right? >> it's starting to get stronger, but only if you relate it to the last three years that it's getting stronger. we monitor this in beauty salons. when the economy went bad, people still went to salons, but less often. instead of every four or five weeks, they start going every six or seven weeks. when they start coming back, you see a change, it's starting to turn. i would relate that statement only to the last three years. however, is it turning like astronomically, no. it's doing it slowly. we have to do more to get more people to work and there are jobs out there. people just have to start taking them. >> all right, john paul, always good to see you. this is a man who is taking his train, yes, he has one, his patron train, to both of the conventions this summer to put his view of the world and creating jobs to democrats and republicans. >> america still works and we want people to know that. >> that's right. thanks very much to john paul. next, the first poll of the campaign released today. president obama is leading in literally every group except the one that could decide the election. and latest from the trayvon martin case. george zimmerman has officially asked for a new judge. and new developments in the murder mystery that's captivated the world. we have the story about why it could derail china's quest to be number one versus america. this is $100,000. we asked total strangers to watch it for us. thank you so much, i appreciate it, i'll be right back. they didn't take a dime. how much in fees does your bank take to watch your money ? 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[whoosh, clang] you need lifelock, the only identity theft protection company that now monitors bank accounts for takeover fraud. lifelock: relentlessly protecting your identity. call 1-800-lifelock or go to lifelock.com today. okay. okay. it's the long slog to november has formally begun today, just in case you thought it started last fall or a year ago. today it actually started. the first poll of the general election came out. and who is winning the war on women, as some like to refer to it, the president is up 52 to 43 percent among registered voters. it's a nationwide poll. after all the recent talk about which party is winning the war on women, it looks like the president is holding strong there with a 16-percentage point lead over mitt romney. john avalon joins us. anna goldberg also here and mary kate cary in washington, former speechwriter for president george h.b. bush. mary kay, let me start with you. poll numbers really show a problem for mitt romney with women. 16-point margin. is there anything that he can do to close that gap given that his secret weapon, ann romney, he's already used that weapon? >> i think the polls are showing that mitt romney is more vulnerable than he'd like to be. but it's not hopeless. he can pivot like he did this week very easily to get back to those pocketbook issues that the women want to hear about. one thing we learned last week with the hilary rosen incident was that the women's vote is not monolithic. the fact that the president, the vice president, the first lady, the head of the campaign, the dnc, all lowered the boom on her so quickly, said to me that they see how volatile the women's vote is as well. we saw tremendous movement in 2010 during the midterms so it's not a hopeless situation for romney. i think he can turn this around. >> you're sort of looking skeptical there, michelle. >> the only thing that the hilary rosen nonstory showed us is that the mitt romney campaign is so incredibly desperate that it seized on a stray comment by a cnn contributor to convince us there's some kind of mythical war on moms. and then they don't even know enough to not to express their glee at the opening when they're having a fund-raiser. they talked about this was an early christmas present. the fact is, is that mitt romney's economic policies have always been really unpopular among women. he's lost the women's vote in every race he's ever won. he lost it in 2002, when he won the gubernatorial race. >> he won it in the primary, though. >> right, but in every general election he's lost it. and in those elections the social issues weren't particularly salient because he was still pro-choice. the reason he lost is especially running against kennedy, they hammered him on what his economic policies were going to mean for women. right now those policies are pretty vague. he's pro business, but people don't understand that he wants to cut government even further. remember, most of the job losses that we've seen among women since obama has taken office have been government jobs. he wants to cut those payrolls further. >> it's interesting, although i have to say, if democrats coined more on women, now war on moms, i don't like to have a race to the bottom, but it's all kind of b.s. >> what's going on? we're racing to the bottom. this is a completely manufactured controversy. the open mike slip that the romneys made acknowledged that fact. despite the fact that they were fund-raising off that slogan. it's an attempt to play offense on an issue they have been losing. they have been losing because of policies going on in state legislatures across the country. >> contraception in texas? >> exactly right. so this is not out of nothing. so now they're trying to play offense and take away the issue. it doesn't seem to be helping yet. the big point is how incredibly cynical is it to be pumping up a manufactured controversy in an attempt to take away a negative that frankly you've earned and need to work your way out of. not slug your way out of. >> mary kay, let's go to independents now. mitt romney right now is losing to president obama by a five-point margin among independents, which as john avalon points out often 40% of the total vote, obviously many of them lean one way or another. that is five-point spread enough for the president or is that where mitt romney has to find his space? >> oh, i think there's a long way to go here. the election is seven months away. that's a lifetime in politics. there are so many wild cards that could still happen. when you think about right now the primaries are pretty much over. there's no more debates left. we have nothing between now and conventions in late august, early september. there's a lot of stuff that can still happen. the fact that mitt romney is that close this far out says to me there's a blank canvas and it's his to grab. >> or an etch-a-sketch waiting in the wings. i mean, that's the -- >> or an etch-a-sketch. >> romney was actually -- >> talk about manufactured controversies. >> that wasn't even him, it was an aide. >> the point is romney will pivot back to the center. this is romney 1.0, massachusetts version, where registered independents outnumbered republicans and democrats. in november, romney was beating obama among independents, and then the primaries happened, and that was that rush to the right, and it ended up damaging the entire brand of republican independents, so he's within striking distance and will have to build it back. >> but he's the leader of a party that's an incredibly far right party and they're watching him. they're not going to let him disavow the positions that he's taken in the last few months fighting this primary. >> thanks to all three. former presidential candidate john edwards is on trial for using campaign funds to shield his pregnant mistress. but they're having a lot of trouble getting it started. jury selection today, we have an insider. and pippa middleton caught with a man who pulled a gun on photographers. will the incident trigger gun charges for the royal family's latest wild child? 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how key will that testimony be, do you think? >> well, she is expected to appear, erin. it will garner a lot of headlines and cameras. i don't know that it will determine the outcome of the case. both sides believe that her testimony will be favorable to john edwards. but this case at the end of the day doesn't turn on the sex scandal, the love child, it turns on, you know, somewhat complicated issues of federal election law. and so i also think it's a real issue of whether this jury will be able to relate to rielle hunter. if john edwards expects her to save the day for him, i think he's got a lot to be worried about. >> you've been watching john edwards in court as jury selection has been getting started. what's his demeanor? how involved is he? he's a lawyer himself. >> well, he's not just any lawyer, he's one of the most successful lawyers in north carolina history, arguably lawyer of national renown before he became such a famous politician. it's extraordinary to see the defendant, the client in many ways serving as lead counsel. many times during the pretrial hearings, certainly when the jury pool was in the courtroom last week, john edwards was the one bringing his team together, filled with high-powered lawyers from d.c. and north carolina. so he's both client and attorney. >> we've seen this delayed because of his health. people have wondered how serious that is. physically, how does he look? >> well, he looked better today. i did see a bit more of the spring in his step. you know, he's looked at times kind of tired, for which sleep does little good. it's a situation that was of his own making. but i think he looked better, seemed to feel better today. >> hampton, how strong is the case? when you put it altogether, how strong is the case? and given the difficulty of finding a jury of his, quote unquote, peers, given the publicity of the situation, how likely do you think it is he'll go to jail considering as we said, it could be 30 years? >> well, i think it's quite likely this will be a working class jury. i saw with the pool in the courtroom more ball caps than neckties, more t-shirts than button-down shirts. it's the type of jury pool edwards connected with as edwards the lawyer, as edwards the politician. it's going to be tough as edwards the defendant. what he has in his favor, erin, is the lack of precedent for this type of prosecution. this is not edwards trying to sell an official act. this was not money that went directly for ads or for yard signs. and he's got former federal election commissioners willing to testify that what he did in their eyes is not a crime. >> all right. thank you very much, sir. we appreciate it. all right, so i was in the middle east last week and stumbled across a few very interesting articles. they were front-page articles in fact, pertaining something near and dear to me. her, the beloved. in the gulf news this headline, blackberry still a big seller in the uae. in fact research in motion we learned is negotiating a lease for 1500 square feet of retail space in dubai, where the blackberry rules, thanks to its instant messaging. now, i also discovered that new stores are opening elsewhere. research in motion, the blackberry maker, plans on opening 4,000 retail stores and kiosks in indonesia alone, where there were riots due to high demand when the blackberry bold