together. tonight, a shocking ad campaign insulting american jews paid for by the government of israel. >> christmas. >> but up first tone the dramatic reshuffling of the race for president and a rare inside look at the focus groups used to help with the strategy decisions. suppose you're herman cain, trying to decide whether your candidacy can survive, or newt gingrich testing whether your rise in the polls can sustain tough scrutiny now of your record. >> who is newt gingrich? >> grandfather. >> grant father. who else? >> my uncle joe. >> your uncle joe. >> who else? >> it would be my favorite uncle. you know, he speaks boldly, positively but softly at the same time. >> anybody else? >> grant father. >> yeah, he might be that uncle but he'd keep bringing in different wives. >> plenty to go around. >> okay. >> more from that focus group in a moment. but those first, why those impressions of gingrich, former massachusetts governor mitt romney matter so much right now. cain is at home tonight in georgia to talk face to face with his wife, the biggest deciding factor in whether he will continue his now struggling campaign. most top aides believe he will fight on but friends outside of politics say the cain candidacy is in its final hours. >> i am reassessing because of all of this media firestorm stuff. why? because my wife and family comes first. i've got take that into consideration. i don't doubt the support that i have. just look at the people that are here. we've got to look at what happens to contributions and look at -- we have to re-evaluate the whole strategy. tomorrow and in atlanta i will be making an announcement. nobody's going to get me to make that prematurely. >> as we await the announcement, you need proof cain is struggling? a new iowa poll tonight shows cain with just 8 percent support, one month before the caucuses, way down from 23% for cain a month ago. newt gingrich is winning some cain converts, part of his surge in the national and and key state polls. more and more republicans a few weeks ago predicted a quick romney victory see a drawn-out gingrich/romney race. what do republican voters think of that choice. a peek at a focus group, republican voters are conducted last night virginia. to help, peter hart who led the discussion and our chief political an lift gloria borger on hand to watch it. i want to look at the fascinating romney/gingrich views of your voters last night. but first, herman cain has a big decision to make. by this time tomorrow night, we're likely to know it. what, when you brought up herman cain, peter, to you first, to this group of republican voters, do they think he can sustain this or do they think he's done? >> done. >> done? >> pure and simple. when they talked about him, they just had huge problems. both substantively that he didn't know enough to be president, and the other side was that he really on a moral basis, particularly with harassment charges, were things that bothers people. >> none of what we had seen, he's new, different? >> none of it. not even the like ability. the words that stuck to me, sitting behind the mir, was that he has no chance and he's unelectable about and he's a goner as far as they're concerned. they're over herman cain. >> as we wait mr. cain's decision, we know gingrich has surges, romney is struggling but has a formidable organization and a lot of money. focus groups are fascinating. you're a master at this. one of the devices you use, imagine this candidates a member of your family, your big, extended family to this group of republican voters, the question, in your big family, who is mitt romney? >> who is mitt romney? >> black sheep. >> cousin. >> okay. good. >> second removed cousin. >> uncle. >> see him as close? can you relate to him or distant? >> distant. >> distant. >> why distant? >> he's richer than the rest of us so he wouldn't come to our events. >> it's interesting. distant, black sheep, richer than us not like us. when you're trying to build a connect with voters, those are flashing warning signs, right? >> more than flashing warning signs. he hasn't made an emotional connection. suppose he and sixth in line, waiting to get on a plane they said what would he do? he would buy the airlines or buy a ticket, do something. >> pay-off. >> a pay-off of some type. all of this says there's a distance. the other side they see him as competent, smart, they see him as a businessman. those things work for him. >> just one second. one of the reasons we're showing this to viewers the campaigns do this, too. peter does this part of academic research and for other institutions. the campaigns do this. we know the romney campaign knows just what you just saw. their focus groups they get the same thing. gloria, ann romney, parade magazine, when millions pick up the newspaper, david gergen did an interview with mitt romney and ann romney is in there. he has silly side. he loves to roll on the floor with our grandkids. >> you're not seeing the warm and fuzzy grandfather type. look, i think what i got from the focus group, correct me if i'm wrong in lots of ways he has their respect but he done have their affection. there's not a warm feeling about mitt romney, and there's also a little bit of a sense he could betray them at some point because they do see him as a flip-flopper. >> first, you want a personal connection with voters. you say he didn't have it. if you don't have that, you want them to think this is my guy, he's going to fight for me an all of my issues. do you trust mitt romney as a republican? >> like someone like newt gingrich, you know exactly what he thinks and all all the time. i don't know. >> yeah. >> i think it's a personality thing. >> i think that he has strong morals but he would cave in easily, that's what was necessary to get the public's interest. >> he's what? >> i rhino. >> what does a rhino me? >> republican in name only. >> okay. >> push came to shove, he would easily side, give up a founding principle that republican party just -- >> how many agree with ben, he's a rhino? >> if you're trying to win a republican primary, this is an ideological contest, the republican party if they think they're republican in name only, you've got a problem. >> a big problem. and the difficulty here is that they see him as ungrounded. somebody who has no political principles whatever it takes to win. so they respect him in terms of his intellect, his character, in terms of his family status, but the difficulty is they don't trust him or like him. >> can i just say, the good news for romney here is that they feel this way about newt gingrich to a certain degree. that they believe that newt gingrich has flip-flopped on his positions as well. >> right back into the focus group. republicans have to make this choice. romney's got a lot of money, he's in the race to stay. gingrich is starting to raise money. those are two the leading candidate. cain is going down. if you're look at romney/gingrich. what do you think of gingrich? >> i think when you enter a race that's this important you have to know from the get-go what your stand is and stick with it, period. >> that's why i described him earlier as volatile. >> good. >> i think he'd -- i can see you changing your opinion on one issue, but these are multiple issues and i think that's -- that raises a red flag. >> you have republican voters, peter and gloria, looking at two leading candidates at the moment, mitt romney and newt gingrich, and there's not a lot of trust. they view them both as compromisers, flip-floppers. help me. >> flawed. flawed candidates. each have their own separate problems. mitt has a passion gap. newt as all of the passion but over the top, they can trust him, they're not sure where he's at. both are going to be tested. the public needs to know more. they need to get a better sense. >> they're enthusiastic about beating barack obama burke what i got from a couple of the people there last night was that there weren't sure anyone in this field of candidates could actually get it done. and so there's a lot of concern about that and a lot of sort of well, maybe this wasn't the best field we could have produced. >> help me, lastly, some people watching who say, peter hart, he's the dean of the democratic pollsters, why should i trust him leading a focus group of republicans. explain why you do this. >> is aimed at getting downneath. i have to rain explain i do thi the university of pennsylvania public policy center. i'm an x-ray technician, going in, finding out what people are thinking, this is what came out. all is on c-span so you can see it all. it's neutral. >> always illuminating. >> if you need an x-ray of this sort, this is the guy you want to do it whether republican, democrat, agnostic. a fascinating campaign. you do it with independents and democrats down the road. >> absolutely. >> thank you both. the israeli government's ad campaign suggesting american jews aren't good enough. next the unemployment rate is heading down. but is it for the right reasons? it's like having portable navigation. a bluetooth connection. a stolen vehicle locator. roadside assistance. and something that could help save your life - automatic help in a crash. it's the technology of five devices in one hard-working mirror. because life happens while you drive. this holiday, give someone you love an onstar fmv mirror for only 199. visit onstar.com for retailers. it can't, cannot, be a bad thing, the unemployment rate fell significantly, from 9% down to 8.6%. the question is this, how good is this news? that's more difficult to answer. president obama, as you might expect, emphasizes the positive. >> the unemployment rate went down and despite some strong headwinds this year the american economy's now created, in the private sector, jobs for the past 21 months in a row. that's nearly 3 million new jobs in all. and more than 500,000 over last four months. so, we need to keep that growth going. >> but there are signs of trouble, and lots of them in the data as well. let's go behind the numbers with mark zandy. let's look at the numbers, mark, 8.6 unemployment rate down from 9.0, that's good. 120,000 jobs net, added in november. the unemployment rate at the lowest point since march 2009. that has to make you smile. yet officially, more than 13 million americans still unemployed, 315,000 people flat out just stopped looking for work. and that's the troubling part, right? the rate goes down, not because jobs are being created but hundreds of thousands of americans gave up. >> well, john, there is good news. we did create jobs and the increase in employment helped to bring down the unemployment rate. you're right, one of the key reasons for the large decline in unemployment people did give up, the labor force did decline, that's not a positive sign. that's not encouraging. so there's good and bad in the report. net-net, i'll take it. unemployment rate is moving in right direction. >> one of the conversations we've had for months is are we at danger in falling into a double-dip recession. most people think you'd like double. is this prof month after month we can set aside the double dip talk? >> unless something very bad happens in another part of the world, and the part of the world we should be most worried about is europe. yes, i think you're absolutely right, john. i think this should give us some confidence that the recovery, albeit slower than people would like, is really gaining solid footing but i don't think the recovery's strong enough that it could sustain a big external shock. and europe still has potential to pose that kind of a shock to the u.s. economy. >> important reminder there. mark, i asked you this every time, not only do americans care about this, one american in particular cares about this, the president of the united states, where do we think the rate will be a year from now. november 2009, 9.9%, november 2010, 9.8, november 2011, progn 2012, when people are about to vote? >> i don't think we're going it make a lot of progress, john. we're going to create enough jobs to ensure that is unemployment rate remains roughly where it is. if you told me come this time next year the unemployment rate is somewhere around 8.5%, 9%, i'd say that sounds right to me. >> look at patient, piece by piece. look at retail, 50,000 jobs added last month. some of that probably seasonal but that's a good number to see that good up. health care consistently doing well, 17,000 jobs last month. that's a good number. manufacturing, just 2,000. government, shedding another 20,000 jobs. that continues to happen. construction, down 12,000. the made in america front, that's not a strong enough number, is it? >> no, it's not. and i think in terms of, you know what are the unpleasant details a little bit beneath the headline figure that manufacturing number is one of the ones that jumps out because at the beginning of the recovery, one of the stories people were starting to tell with some enthusiasm, a bright spot is manufacturing in the u.s. is picking up. this is a great long-term sign. it means that that is going to be a steady source of good jobs. and also, it's a great indicator of a powerful ripple effect across the economy because there's investment in factories and so on. i fine that number discouraging. the other thing that i think is worth pointing out is the drag that the loss of government jobs is putting on the employment numbers overall. and this really is a pretty perverse situation that we're in at a time when unemployment remains, i think, at real crisis levels, the government is actually, you know, shooting the economy in the foot by laying people off and adding to the ranks of the unemployed. >> it's happening mostly at state level because they don't have money to keep people on. one of the questions, because of that, the crisis point, what to do about it. here in washington, and one of the big debates is extending a payroll tax cut put in place. democrats and republicans want to do it but having to fight over how to play for it. listen to how important the president says that payroll tax cut is to stimulating the compete. >> now's not the time to slam the brakes on the recovery. right now it's time to step on the gas. >> does he have a point, mark? the debate has become not only how to pay for this, democrats want to tax on millionaires, republicans want to find some other way to pay for it within the budget. but there are some people who were for the payroll tax cut a year ago who say they've watched it it implemented they don't see a stimulative effect and think it done give the economy a boost so we can't afford it. are they right? >> no, i think it's very important to extend the payroll tax holiday for another year. it's a lot of money to u.s. households, $120 billion. and as pointed out the recovery's fragile, quite weak, and i don't think we can gracefully digest a tack increase of $120. it's very important to extend. i think it needs to be paid for, not paid for in 2012, but 2013 and beyond. and i think the democrats and republicans need to figure out a way to come to some compromise, pay for this and get it done because it's very important for the economy, particularly early 2012, when the economy will be at its most vulnerable. >> most in washington think they'll figure out something on this one. but isn't it proof, especially with every day we get closer to the campaign environment, on these relatively modest proposals that might help the economy a little bit or at least put a band-aid on the economy, the partisan divide makes it more difficult for the government to do anything to help? >> yes, absolutely. i think it's prizing that we're seeing such staunch republican opposition to extending a tax break, right? it's been so central to the republican ideology in the latest cycle that taxes are evil. it's surprising to me to see them effectively, as mark points out everybody advocating what would amount to a tax hike. so i think in terms of the politics, the president has the higher ground on this one. >> thanks so much. >> thank you. smart economics conversation. let's tack a loeser look at the politics. the job situation during the obama presidency. the unemployment rate here, down 8.6%. the president certainly would welcome that. take a look at it over time. remember, what happened when the president first took office, deep in a recession, the economy was bleeding, bleeding jobs into the red. then you had quarters of big growth and people got encouraged, then back down. now we've had growth, some not great, but at least growth and a positive side since then. every president is judged of course by the economy when they seek re-election. we'll go back here through the george h. bush administration, the clinton administration, the bush administration and the obama administration. george h.w. bush ran for re-election in here. look at the record here. plus 872, 872,000 jobs they created. he lost his re-election campaign because of the economy and again the unemployment rate was up shy of 8%. come into the clin years, this number is the envy of every president, plus 8.2 million in november 1995, the year before his re-election. president clinton running with a low rate, in his re-election campaign. president bush, it was not positive. he was minus, net 2.1 million jobs in his presidency but that was 345,000 up from his low. the bush administration lost jobs early on, started to come back a bit. he managed to win re election, despite that. take a look where president obama is a year out. minus 1.1 million job is the net. if you add up the obama administration from beginning to now. slight reason for optimism at the white house, that's off the low. that's 2.4 million up off the low. i showed you the beginning, all of the jobs bleeding out. this is not a great number but it's better than it was. just several months ago. so president obama carrying this, a tough, tough record to dme carry into re-election at least it's better now than not so long ago. the ad campaign sparking outrage. israel's ambassador to the united states had to call home to complain. >> now [ale anuncer ] the lexus december to remember sales event is here, but only for a limited time. see your lexus dealer. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about the typical financial consultation ttd# 1-800-345-2550 when companies try to sell you something off their menu ttd# 1-800-345-2550 instead of trying to understand what you really need. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 ttd# 1-800-345-2550 at charles schwab, we provide ttd# 1-800-345-2550 a full range of financial products, ttd# 1-800-345-2550 even if they're not ours. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 and we listen before making our recommendations, ttd# 1-800-345-2550 so we can offer practical ideas that make sense for you. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 ttd# 1-800-345-2550 so talk to chuck, and see how we can help you, not sell you. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 we've saved people a lot of money on car insurance. feels nice going into the holidays. ohhhh.... will you marry me? 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