just into "the situation room," brand-new poll numbers confirming a new lineup in the fight for the gop presidential nomination. the cnn/orc survey has just been released and shows a two-man contest at this point. the poll shows 34% of republicans asked say santorum is their choice. 32% say romney. with a sampling error, that means it's a statistic cal tie. ron paul and newt gingrich are far behind at 16 and 15%. first big picture, ron, what do you make of santorum's rise? >> i think this continues the extraordinary, even unprecedented volatility of this republican race. jessica, if you look back to your cnn/orc polls, rick santorum is the sixth different candidate to be ahead in the national polling, the seventh different candidate. he is up 19 points sin january alone in the survey and it underscores probably the most unformed in deep in the contest since 1940. >> you're always good with the historical data, ron. this one that takes you to my next question. this number jumped out at me. when we asked you strongly support your candidate, the poll came out with 55% said yes for santorum, only 38% of romney supporters said they feel strongly in support of romney. how dang are you is that for romney and what did it pour tend should he lose more? >> this seems to take us right back to where we were in january. two other questions in this poll, romney did much better. most republicans still think he'll win the nomination and think he's a better bet against obama in november november. but there's a clear enthusiasm gap on that question, and another one, would you be enthusiastic? many more people, about a third said santorum, a fifth said romney. if he loses in michigan in two weeks, a state where he won in 2008, i think you'll see an earthquake in this republican race beyond anything we have seen so far. >> and this next question plays into michigan. when we ask, blue collar versus white collar voters, blue collar voters, 36% of them say they support santorum for nominee, 31% of while collar voters go to santorum, but rockne has the edge. what does that tell you? it plays into a narrative we've been hearing lately. >> absolutely. there are two wings in the party, upskill, somewhat socially more moderate, and romney does pretty well with those voters. he's done well with college voters, and he struggles much more in the blue collar pop you list half of the party. and you see that again in these numbers. in michigan in 2008, almost 70% did not have a college degree. that's why that's terrain that could be responsive to santorum, but it's worth noting that though romney that is struggled, santorum hasn't made the sale. even though these background and agenda would seem to make him a stronger candidate, he has yet to prove it. >> michigan could be the state where we see this all shake out or not. okay. thanks, ron, so much for being with us, ron brownstein with "the national journal." over at the white house today a high-stake game with high-level diplomacy as president obama welcome d china ace heir apparent. brianna, a series of important meetings? >> a series of important meetings, it's hugely important, because the vice president of china, xifjinping is expected to take over the reins from hu jintao very soon and be in control really the next decade. this is a -- there's a lot of tensions as you mentioned from everything from trade from the military presence in asia as well as human rights. outside the white house and on a bridge not far appear protesters gave the vice president x xi jinping. >> i welcome the entire delegation. >> as vice president biden welcomed xi, and president obama met in the oval office with the man widely expected to become president of china later this year. >> this is a great opportunity for us to build on the u.s./china relationship. >> reporter: but both men are walking a line, two rival powers sizing each other up. >> well tried to emphasize because of china's extraordinary development over the last two decades, that with expanding power becomes increased responsibilities. >> translator: and i hope to engage with a broad section of american, so we can expand consensus, strengthen cooperation and deepen the friendship with the chinese and american people. >> reporter: is that the biggest objective here, to establish a rapport and open a line of communication? >> yes, the biggest objective for this visit is an investment in the future of our relationship with china, and getting to know you for president obama and xi jinping. >> >> reporter: u.s. interests in the country are wide-ranging. a trade imbalance and the undervalued currency are sticky issues, and so is this -- >> some of our marines will be rotating through these parts. >> reporter: china, a growing military power, is watching the move right in its neighborhood with suspicion. as the u.s. try toss weaken iran economically in an effort to stop it from getting a sneak lard weapon, china is iran's largest oil customer. >> i think president obama and vice president biden will be sending a message whatever china does with iran, it shouldn't be undercutting the sanctions. as other countries reduce their imports of oil from iran, we do not want the chinese to backfill. >> reporter: next stop for vice president xi, iowa where he will go and talk agriculture. he -- and then he'll head next to los angeles for president obama sort of let it slip today he may take in a lakers game. maybe some fun. >> and there's iowa jokes over at the white house i heard today, too. china's leader, an interesting personal biography. tell us what you know of him. >> reporter: it's really fascinating. he's sort of like communist royalty. he was born to a mao-era revolutionary hero, in his teens he got sent out to essentially the countryside to work in a very poor environment when his family sort of fell out of favor. ultimately, though, worked his way back. he ended up marrying a very famous chinese folk singer. xi's is daughter goes to harvard. and i think the biggest outstanding question in the '80s he started the first chinese economic zone, so there's questions whether he'll move to modernize, and it may be years before we know the answer to that question. >> we'll be watching his trip. thank you, brianna for the report. on capitol hill, the talk about china was less diplomatic as the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff testified before the senate armed services committee. listen to this remarkable exchange between martin dempsey and republican senator lindsey graham of south carolina. >> well, i say if we could find that the people's liberation army was involved in hacking into our defense infrastructure, would you consider that a hostile act by the chinese? >> i would consider it to be a crime. i think there are other measures that could be taken that would rise to the level of a hostile act. >> what would those be? >> attacking our critical infrastructure. >> that could be a hostile act allowing us to respond in kind? >> in my view, that's right. >> i'm going to have lunch with the vice president, so what do you want me to tell him? >> happy valentine's day. >> okay, i'll do that. that lunch took place at the state department. no word if he passed on the message. and on to a story that we have been following since this weekend's tragic news. whitney houston's death remains a mystery, but we're getting new details on how the pop icon's life will be celebrated. her family and friends will gather this weekend for a private funeral service. our don lemon is in los angeles, following the story since it broke. don, tell us the very latest. what do we know now about the arrangements? >> reporter: hey, jess, how are you? we're just getting information in, that governor chris christie says he intends to order the state's flags flown at half staff during whitney houston's funeral. that's just coming into cnn here, so the flags will be flown at half staff. what we know is what you want. originally it had been reported by a local paper there that the service, the funeral and memorial was going to be at the prudential center and it would be public. not so. according to the wingen funeral home, which is handling the body and the arrangements, it will be a private service at new hope baptist church, which is whitney houston's childhood church, where she grew up singing in the choir. her mom was a director there. there will be a motorcade. everything is still in flux, and the burial will be private. i have to tell you, jess, i've been online on my social networking pages, a lot of her fans are not happy about it. they wanted to say good-bye and pay their respects to whitney houston as wet. it will be saturday at noon, by the way. >> but they won't get a chance to see it publicly. so is there -- are there any new developments on the investigation into her death? >> reporter: yesterday we spoke and they had an hour before her death, her stachbt was in the room and saw her alive and well. and it's what's cnn has been reporting o. it was a family member. we said it was an assistant member of is the staff. it was someone they call aunt mary. it's not really a family member. it's mary jones, her assistant. i spoke to the coroner not long ago and asked her about the things going on around about the prescription truss and pharmacies, and he said, listen, don, and i'm paraphrasing, but listen, at this point we're still looking into all of that, we're trying to find her medical records and get complete medical records and who her doctors were, et cetera. then he said, again, jess, six to eight weeks. i said, come on, it doesn't take that long. and he said, don, you're right, we do get preliminary results back 1, 12, 3 days, but we still have to go over those. sometimes those things will spike some medications and drugs and we have to retest, so just be patient, let the investigation play out. right now, and this is according to him and a lot of people, we should be paying respects to whitney houston and find the details as they come in and come in accurately. >> so they're asking us to quiet down on the speculation about whether there was any drinking or drugs in her final days, is the bottom line? >> reporter: right. absolutely. that's what they're saying. we're talking about drinking and drugs. the drinking part, her friends do confirm that on the evening -- thursday evening when she went to the true nightclub and you see the pictures of her on stage singing with kelly price, they do confirm they say champagne was flowing. i just spoke with the young man who shot that videotape, steve, in the greenroom here in los angeles, and hi said, yeah, i say whitney, she had consumed -- she didn't looks out of it, but jess, i went to that club yesterday. one of the managers said, hey, this club was filled almost to capacity. 400 people in here, people were clawing, trying to get to whitney houston, but most of many people who left the club were pretty sweaty. >> don, thanks so much for your reporting now and throughout the weekend. you've been doing an amazing job. gas prices and president obama's reelection odds. jack cafferty is standing by with "the cafferty file." also breaking news from capitol hill. word of a deal that impacts almost every american who gets a paycheck. plus 9 battle in michigan, once thought to be in the bag for mitt romney, but no more. we'll have our strategy session. matt's brakes didn't sound right... ...so i brought my car to mike at meineke... ...we inspected his brakes for free. free is good. free is very good. my money. my choice. my meineke. sure. what flavor? mm, one of each. lemon burst, hm, cherry orchard, blackberry harvest... my daughter's grabbing some yoplait. pina colada, orange creme. i can't imagine where she is... strawberry cheesecake. [ grocery store pa ] clean up in aisle eight. found her! [ female announcer ] yoplait original. 25 flavors for you to love. it is so good. that's how it is with alzheimer's disease. she needs help from me. and her medication. the exelon patch -- it releases medication continuously for twenty-four hours. she uses one exelon patch daily for the treatment of mild to moderate alzheimer's symptoms. [ female announcer ] it cannot change the course of the disease. hospitalization and rarely death have been reported in patients who wore more than one patch at a time. the most common side effects of exelon patch are nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. the likelihood and severity of these side effects may increase as the dose increases. patients may experience loss of appetite or weight. patients who weigh less than 110 pounds may experience more side effects. people at risk for stomach ulcers who take certain other medicines should talk to their doctor because serious stomach problems such as bleeding may worsen. people with certain heart conditions may experience slow heart rate. [ woman ] whenever i needed her, she was there for me. now i'm here for her. [ female announcer ] ask the doctor about your loved one trying the exelon patch. visit exelonpatch.com to learn more. jack cafferty is here with "the cafferty file." hi, jack. >> jess, americans paying at the gas pump could mean pay -- the national average for regular unleaded gasoline is $3.52 a gallon right now according to the energy department, up more than four cents, but experts are saying this summer gas prices could go much higher, record highs, topping $4 by june, in some places they say it could be northwesterly $5. big cities like chicago and san francisco could be especially hard hit. according to aaa, the all-time high was $4.11 a gallon in the summer of 2008. we could easily hit a new record high as summer driving season kicks into high gear and president obama gets ready to face reelection. consider that when president obama took office in january 2009, gasoline averaged $1.79 a gallon. gas has almost doubled since president obama took office, and they're headed higher from here. there are several reasons for all of this. mainly the possibility of war in the middle east, but also the closing of refineries, the increased demand for gasoline as summertime approaches, and the government requiring a switchover from cheaper winter gas formulations to more expensive summer ones. but all those reasons aside, and whether it's fair or not, traditionally the american motoring public tends to blame the guy in the white house for high gas prices. it's just the way it is. so here's the question. if gasoline hits record prices by this summer, how much will it hurt president obama's reelection chances? go to cnn.com/caffertyfile, post a comment on my blog on go to our poich on "the situation room's" facebook page. jess? >> we'll check back in with you later on, jack. thanks. this just into "the situation room," there is word of a possible deal to extend the payroll tax cut as well as unemployment benefits. cnn congressional correspondent kate bolduan is working that story. kate, what do you know? >> hey there, jess. just late this afternoon we're getting good indications, strong indications from top aides on both sides of the aisle in both 9 house and the senate that chi negotiators on this fight that's been bruising and going on, the key negotiators are close to an agreement. as well as preventing a scheduled cut to the reimbursement rate that medicare doctors receive. these are three issues that have kind of been tied together in this long-fought battle, but this all comes just one day after house republican leaders went -- reversed on their position, they dropped their demand, insisting that any extension of the payroll tax cut must be paid for by cutting spending elsewhere in the budget. after that surprising and sharp reversal by house republican leaders, we're seeing this movement and potential progress as is being told to me on all three of these issues. whale aides caution, as they always do, they're not there yet, we're getting strong indications that they're moving in the direction of a deal. you're saying that the republicans would agree to all three without paying for any of it? >> reporter: the indications i'm getting is the payroll tax cut would not be paid for. however, the other two elements, as well as the doc fix as it's called, those would be paid for. the details are not yet released. why i'm standing in this unusual location is house republican leaders are actually scheduled to be meeting in the speaker's office behind me right now to discuss the state of play. in two hours they'll be meeting with all rank-and-file republican members where clearly they'll be gauging where house republicans stand. as you know, it can be a tough sell with some of tea party backed freshmen. so we'll see. >> great reporting. keep us posted if you learn new details. >> reporter: of course. thanks so much. syrians tell our arwa daming they're facing for full-blown war. snipers on rooftops are terrorizing residents in one city under siege. stand by for dramatic video of a man chasing after a young boy while bullets fly nearby. rick santorum is surging where mitt romney was raised. james carville and rich galen weigh in. when i grow up, i want to fix up old houses. ♪ [ woman ] when i grow up, i want to take him on his first flight. i want to run a marathon. i'm going to own my own restaurant. when i grow up, i'm going to start a band. [ female announcer ] at aarp we believe you're never done growing. thanks, mom. i just want to get my car back. [ female announcer ] discover what's next in your life. get this free travel bag when you join at aarp.org/jointoday. i like yoplait. it is yoplait. but you said it was greek. mmhmm. so is it greek or is it yoplait? exactly. okay... [ female announcer ] yoplait. it is so greek. at liberty mutual, we know how much you count on your car, and how much the people in your life count on you. that's why we offer accident forgiveness, where your price won't increase due to your first accident. we also offer a hassle-free lifetime repair guarantee, where the repairs made on your car are guaranteed for life, or they're on us. these are just two of the valuable features you can expect from liberty mutual. plus, when you insure both your home and car with us, it could save you time and money. at liberty mutual, we help you move on with your life, so get the insurance responsible drivers like you deserve. call us at... or visit your local liberty mutual office, where an agent can help you find the policy that's right for you. liberty mutual insurance, responsibility -- what's your policy? violence broke out and a high-ranks official is among the dead. mary snowe is monitoring that and other top stories. what do you want? what do you have? >> an iraqi arm general was assassinated today. two roadside bombs also exploded in the capital. despite the attacks, officials say violence has dropped dramatically. it's been the heaviest attack in days. residents say snipers are keeping them from moving around and getting basic supplies. take a look at this. this is amateur video shows a man chasing a child running down the street. you can hear the gunfire nearby. arwa damon is in syria and said many people she's spoken to believe the country is heading toward or already in a full-blown war. on wall street today, the markets end the day mixed. the dow rebounded late in the trading day after falling early because of the worries about the greek debt crisis and disappo t disappointing retail sales number. jessica? thank you, mary. the michigan ad war is heating up with just two weeks to go before the primaries. will mitt romney try to crush rick santorum? we'll talk more with james garrville and rich galen, that's next in our "strategy session." mitt romney versus rick santorum. the latest polls show it's the latest incarnation of the tumultuous battle for the republican nomination. a new lineup has formed as the candid