>> the republican race for the white house is all tied up in mississippi and alabama, most primary polls close in four hours. those contests could go anywhere. . what's happens in lafayette, jim? >> the primaries are, all three candidates have a serious shot at taking the checkered flack, all at least at risk for a maybe blowout. with the deep vow. >> reporter: confident that primaries in mississippi and alabama could put him in the gop's driver's seat -- >> under the obama economy, it's been harder these are crushing a lot of people. >> romney has good wins to, and victories by newt ging rich could be just as damaging. >> reporter: he's making the case that the race won't be settled in the south. >> it can be different for anyone to get to the number of delegates with the majority of the convention. >> they laughed that off in an e-mail to reporters, saying that they have bush did you somehow magically win at the convention. this is pure fantasy or vanity, or both. >> i do not believe the other two candidates can beat obama. i believe this race is the most important in the lifetime, and i will not leave the field. going on a popular show. >> there's a certain advantage i think right now. >> where does temperature end up? >> santorum 21, newt 9, ron paul 4, and romney 2. >> as for that talk of a brokered convention, an adviser told me it's hard to priskt what might happen. a brokered convention is sort of like big foot, no one has ever seen one before. wolf? >> we'll be in close touch through the night. dana bash is joining us from birmingham, alabama. dana, tell me where you are exactly, what you'll be looking for tonight. >> as you said, we're in birmingham, this is jefferson county, alabama, where we'll be all evening long. is a from all over the county, about 177 presentence. they'll bring is into this vault, and come with me, we're going to go inside. i'll tell you exactly what we'll be looking at later. first of all, when they come in, they'll go to this window, where they'll be dropping off they microchips. in the be mitt romney to see if he could get his vote counseled up, it could be -- as jim was just talking about, it's kind of a dead heat between him and newt gingrich. ultimately what we're going to see here is we'll be watching through this window. they're actually going to be reading, on these computers, reading the vote results as they come in. we'll be right here with them, with these election officials to try to get you the numbers, to try to get a sense of how well mitt romney or newt gingrich, because again, talked to all the campaigns, party officials in this state, they say this is definitely one of the key ones to watch. >> i know we'll get an edge, because you're there. here's another question. how unusual, dana, is it for alabama to be such an important state in a republican primary? >> i was talking to some election officials, asking about, you know, trying to get a sense historically how important jefferson county has been for the republican primary, and they didn't really have a good answer. it hasn't gotten this far. for example, the last contested republican race, of course was four years ago. it was just john mccain and mike huckabee in this state. it was pretty close, but didn't have that much of an impact. they're not used to having this kind of attention. i should also say, in other states, it is an open primary. that means that you don't really have a sense of the party rental station strays, because people don't have to say i'm a republican or democrat, they just have to choose which primary they're going to vote for. >> all those political ads in president obama and -- all right. thanks very much. dana, bring in gloria borger. how important are these races, two in the deep south tonight. >> very important, but important in different ways. first of all, for mitt romney, as we know he's had a lot of difficulty in the south. 2008 did not win a primary there. if you want to prove you're conservative and it attract the most conservative in your parties, it would really help him to win mississippi or alabama. newt gingrich, you know, newt gingrich, his star back they are viewed by republicans as a start. >> well "new york times"/cbs poll today is so interesting. they asked about candidate qualities. you see here who can beat barack obama. only 25% for romney, 47% for santorum, so this is the kwanry of the republican party. the person they believe can beat barack obama is not the person they think represents their values. so that's why you see so many republicans being kind of am bivalent about this race, because they're divided. >> they certainly are. as far as president obama is concerned, we know romney has not done all that great with so-called look iing they seemedo have the same exact problem. look it. barack obama, blue collar voters, down 16 points since february, only 34%, but over $100,000, he's up one point. these are the voters that mitt romney does well with. these are the voters that mitt romney has problems with. if you're going to win in the battleground midwest, and you're going to try to appeal to the very important voters there, you've got to start appealing to these voters. so far, neither of these candidates has a lock on that. that's a problem for both of them, quite frankly. >> the pain at the pump is hurting the folks out there. that's probably reflected in a significant drop in his approval. >> and the economy in general. if the economy is getting better and wall street mayfield it, these are the people who don't feel it. >> not yet. jessica yellin will have more on this part of the story. also stand by for my interview with mitt romney. he's going to join us live in our next hour. i'll interview him here in "the situation room." more on what's at stake for newt gingrich tonight. jack cafferty has "the cafferty file." plus condemnation from president obama, as new details are emerging right now about the civilian massacre in afghanistan. 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[ male announcer ] ask your doctor if chantix is right for you. sgleefr jack cafferty is here with "the cafferty file." jack? >> today's southern primaries in michelle obama and alabama might be newt gingrich's in mississippi and alabama might be newt gingrich's last assistant. he he should have an advantage in the south, but the polls say he doesn't. they show him virtually tied in both alabama and mississippi. pennsylvania trisha murphy writes republicans who won in the south alone were doomed. candidates included barry goldwater and mike huckabee. she describes a southern strategy as a recipe for disaster. howard kurtz also writing in "the daily beast" suggests the media drumbeat for gingrich's exit is growing louder, because we want the race to go on longer. senator lindsey graham says the race is already about over. it's romney's to lose. cnn estimates that romney has 459 delegates, compared to 203 for santorum, just a paltry 118 for newt gingrich. back to newt. he says even if he doesn't have a good day today, he'll stick around. maybe not. if gingrich loses in one or both of these states, money might be harder to come by. without money, he goes nowhere. so here's the question. do mississippi and alabama represent newt gingrich's last stand in go to cnn.com/caffertyfile, post a comment on my blog or go to our post on "the situation room's" facebook page. allegedly carried out by u.s. army sergeant. the president deplored the killings today in some of his strongest language yet. >> over the weekend, as many of you know, there was a tragic incident in which a number of afghan civilians were killed. what i've maid to president karzai when i spoke to him is the united states takes this as seriously as if it was our own citizens and our own children who were murdered. we're heartbroken over the loss of innocent life. the killing is outrageous and unacceptable. it is not who we are as a country and does not represent our military. new information just coming into "the situation room" about the alleged shooter. let's go to our pentagon correspondent barbara starr. what are you learning? >> wolf, at this hour, cnn has learned that instead alcohol may have been a factor in this incident. two senior u.s. officials are confirming to cnn they are looking into the possible that alcohol was involved. one u.s. official telling us that when investigators searched the base, they found alcohol in the area where this man had been living. the staff sergeant, the suspect, another official also confirming they are looking at alcohol as a factor. toxicology tests on the staff sergeant suspect have not come back yet. so we cannot say with certainty that they have been able to tie alcohol to this incident, but there are things that are leading them to believe that alcohol may have been involved, including finding alcohol on the base. alcohol is available in afghanistan, but this is an islamic country, and this will be something very difficult to explain to the people of afghanistan. second thing we have learned at this hours, there is imagery. at these small bases, as you know, for perimeter security, they have very high-powered cameras mounted around the base at an altitude above ground. this is called persistent surveillance, so they can monitor the area and see what's coming and going 24 hours a day. those cameras picked up images of the staff sergeant both leaving the base and coming back to the base, but we are adamantly told the cameras could not see as far as the village, the nearby village where he conducted this alleged crime. there is no imagery of that being conducted, but they do have imagery of him walking out alone and coming back into the base alone. wolf? >> i take it, barbara, they still haven't released the identity, the name -- i spoke to general allen yesterday, and he said they were waiting to do that, but what's the rationale for delaying releasing his name? >> reporter: under the military justice system, wolf, names of suspects are generally not release released until the charges against them are formally made. when those charges are made, the charges are made public and the names are generally made public. there's a lot of concern in the military right now, though, that the name will leak out, and of course there is a good deal of concern about his family. as we said yesterday, his wife and children have been moved inside the base at lewis mcchord at washington state. a lot of concern that everything is done to keep them safe. >> we hope they will be safe. we'll have more developments in this unfolding story coming up, including taliban threats again american troops, threats of beheading, chopping off their heads in retaliation in revenge for what happened. we have more information in our next hour. opposition activists in syria say at least 36 people died in violence today. lisa sylvester is monitoring that, some of the other top stories. lisa, there's new danger to people trying to get out of syria. what's going on? >> that's right, wolf. the u.n. says about 30,000 syrians have fled this kind of onslaught. now the refugees face another threat. human rights watch sis syrian forces are placing landmines near the country's borders. the group says the opposition has cleared mines of russian origin. president bashar al assad continues to blame violence on armed terrorist groups. president obama today announced the united states is taking on china over rare minerals. it's joining europe and japan in a trade case over china's growing export restrictions. known as rare earth, they are key to the production of many high-tech devices like flat-screen tvs. the u.s. says china is hoarding the minerals. and maybe add author to what 12kr50ibd whitie bulger. court documents show he may have written two memoirs. one manuscript was seized in 1995, and juan was found where he was arrested last june. he has pleaded not guilty to all charges against him, including 19 murder counts. fires on board military ships keg difficult to detect and control, but the u.s. navy is hoping this guy can help. the naval research laboratory is working with researchers from virginia tech and the university of pennsylvania to create a human-like robot based on this one. it will be able to throw fire extinguishing grenades, maneuver up and down ladders and stay balanced at sea. testing should start next year. there you see the fire fighting robot. >> the technology continues. thank you. the republican primary is also continuing. it's felt almost like a scorched earth campaign in some states. just ahead we'll ask two strategists how much harm this is doing. state vipts are all about dipsy and protocol, but a visiting ally will get this. go. from the crack, off the backboard. 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[ announcer ] put more play in your day. beneful. play. it's good for you. eric, obviously you're very influential among these republicans and conservatives, but you're not thrilled by any of four, are you? >> i'm not thrilled by any of them. i talked to a reporter today, one of the local reporters over at "the clarion ledger," he said they're not hitting the sweet spot, and i think we're seeing that nationally. >> so you think romney has made some inroads? >> i think he has. if mitt romney were torque either alabama or mississippi, that would be a big story. i think the movement is headed toward him, the momentum, i think he'll be the nominee. santorum, gingrich and paul can maybe make him drag it out. >> clearly the establishment want romney. they're ready for this to be over with, but you're not an establishment republican? >> no, i would love to find someone else to come in, realistically. >> do you think that could happen? >> i think unless something happens through -- i think in alabama, we see -- i think conservatives are saying it's time to get to the main eye vent. >> what if gingrich loses in both says? >> i think he needs to get out. i don't think he will. >> why wouldn't he? >> because he seems to be a man on a mission. so many people have counted him out for so many long. someone said like bruce willis in "the sixth zen" hesense," he doesn't know he's dead. >> maybe the money for his campaign will dry up and you could use that super pac money for day-to-day operations. he doesn't want to emerge from this experience with personal debt. >> if his money dries up, and after the last races, he needs the money, he's not getting it. ironically newt seems to want to stop mitt romney, but he may be keeping rick santorum from being ability to beat romney, which he says romney will be weak, but for some reason he thinks he's helping santorum. >> let's say he drops out, loses both states, alabama and mississippi tonight. santorum is in it. next tuesday is illinois. what happens? >> i'm not sure santorum will be able to make up ground, but i think it helps when he moves into louisiana, kentucky, west virginia. >> santorum says romney and his super pac are outspending him, what, 10 to 1? is that true? >> it is. and in ohio 6 to 1. we've seen if you can get romney to about a 3:1 spending ratio, you can beat him. gingrich and santorum have a legitimate point. he won't be able to outspend the president in the general. >> based on my conversation with insiders, they're getting increasingly confident it's theirs, they can taste it, and they're already starting to think about running mates. >> i think that's legitimate. if we get to june, and this hasn't wrapped up, with you romney is inching ahead, there will be huge moment actual to get santorum and gingrich out. you'll see evangelicals starting to pull back, saying we want to beat barack obama, do we really want to damage the nominee at the same time, i'm stag are, though, that romney has been running for five years and can't close the deal. >> what about santorum staying in and trying to hurt romney. maybe romney will lose, but this will establish santorum as the front-runner for 2016, assuming barack obama's reelected? >> i fear that, because i don't think santorum is really a strong candidate. this year i think we're fighting over three weak candidates. the republicans typically go with the guy who didn't win last time. that troubles me for 2016, because you will have a man who would not very often in political officer since 2006. this comparison, 1976, ronald reagan loses narrow lynn, then incumbent gerald ford, ford goes on to lose to jimmy carter in 1980, ronald reagan runs again and wins. santorum seeing himself as reagan. >> well, i would say