0 tonight's last word is -- the 11th hour stephanie ruhle starts now. >> tonight, russia's lead battleship some. ukraine says it fired a missile responsible in a potentially major blow to putin's war. then, he argued trump made him do it, but the jury did not buy it. a new verdict for the january 6th case and what the judge said tonight about the former president and future of our democracy. and what's in the world's elon musk's endgame in his bids by twin or as the 11th hour gets underway on this thursday night. >> good evening once again, i'm stephanie ruhle. as the war on ukraine moves into day 51, there are more signs the kremlin is preparing for a new more lethal onslaught. a senior u.s. defense official says russia now has 65 operational battalion tactical groups in the east and south with more military equipment still incoming. >> clearly, what the russians are doing is trying to do what we call shaping. they're trying to set the conditions for success in the donbas for some future more offensive operations. >> there's also a new warning tonight from russia. to this country. the washington post says it is reviewed a formal diplomatic note from moscow warning that u.s. and nato shipments of weapons assistance to ukraine could bring, quote, unpredictable consequences. the threat comes one day after president biden announced more military aid to ukraine worth $800 million. there is also this sobering assessment from biden cia director about putin himself. >> kevin the potential desperation of president putin and the russian leadership the setbacks they have faced so far militarily, none of this could be taken lightly to threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons. so far, we haven't seen a lot of practical evidence of the kind of deployments. but we watch for that very intently. >> russia did have a major military setback today, confirming the flagship vessel in its black sea fleet has now sunk. ukraine says its missiles were responsible, russia says the ship was damaged after a fire on board. either way, the ships losses an embarrassment for the kremlin. >> well, your first year added annapolis, the thing they teach you is never led to your flagship blowup. >> and they did. as for the west's economic war on russia, european union officials are now drafting plans for an embargo on russian oil products. in today, in moscow, putin conceded that sanctions have -- russia's industry, but he also warned that replacing russian suppliers will create a host of problems for the world economy. we'll have more on that just ahead, but we begin this evening with embassies and bc's irie arouzi, ali, the pentagon says that the next phase of this war could begin in days, and it could be devastating. what are you hearing? >> that's right, stephanie. look, we've seen this my sieve column, heading to the donbas. we know that they are massing tens of thousands of troops there. and the russians have been saying for sometime now that their focus is going to be on the donbas region. but at the same time, they have been disorganized, and they haven't taken the weather into account. there's torrential rain right now in the donbas region, they are having trouble getting their armored vehicles off the road and messing their troops in that region. but no one here is under and illusions that there's a big attack coming. there and the 9th of may such an important date for the russians, it's the day that the nazis surrendered in 1945, and everybody you speak to in the ukraine say, that's a day that putin wants to make a big mark, a big victory for the people back home in russia. so they're expecting something big leading up to that day or on that day. and it could be in the donbas region or anywhere else in this country, frankly. >> how are ukrainians reacting to the sinking of that russian warships? >> look, it was a huge embarrassment to the russians. it was a symbol of russian military might and that military acid is now sitting at the bottom of the black sea. a huge embarrassment to the russians but a big goal to the ukrainians. it's a big boost for the military here to all the officials here, they are really happy that they're able to take out the pride of the russian, navy. and we had reports that in the coastal areas around odessa which are all affected by the ships, people were singing and celebrating when they heard news that that ship had some. so it's a big morale boost for the ukrainians and a huge embarrassment for the russians. >> ali, thanks for joining us this evening. this early morning for you. and with that, let's bring in our experts this evening. retired four star u.s. army general, barry mccaffrey, a decorated combat veteran of vietnam and a former battlefield commander in the persian gulf. william taylor, former u.s. ambassador to ukraine. he's also the united states institute of peace for russian europe, and bury glass more of, he grew up in the soviet union. he saw putin's rise to power. now he's a political activist, chairman of the human rights foundation and the renewed democracy initiative, and of course, you know him as a world chess champion. general mccaffrey, i will start with you. yesterday, we reported another 800 million in military aid headed to ukraine. tonight, russia is warning, the united states and our nato allies, to stop sending weapons and threatening what he is calling unpredictable consequences. what does that even mean? >> not much. poor mr. putin is desperate, he's scared, he doesn't have all options. strategically, he is nearly lost the war. nato has come together, really arming, germany, doubling their defense budget. sweden and finland about to come on board. he's in a disastrous situation. u.s. european command walters is pumping military equipment across the border. 50 nations are taking part, to u.s. and individual operation and ukrainians are putting it into the fighters hands in short order. the jury's out -- this is an incredible display of nato standing behind a struggling democracy fighting for its life. >> ambassador, should we look at putin's warning and interpret it as an escalation of this conflict on moscow's part? >> stephanie, i don't think so. we they've made these kinds of threats and others on many occasions. exactly what general mccaffrey said, they are in a hole. they've lost in every time they have been after kyiv, they've been pushed out of that area. back into belarus, back into russia. this embarrassment of the sinking of the moskva and the elation of the ukrainians, the boost of morale for the ukrainians, this is going badly for the russians. and then making these threats, of course they don't like the fact that there is a lot of weapons coming in from the west into ukraine, and that needs to continue. >> the washington post also reports of this alarming change in russia's propaganda messaging, which you know very well. its troops are struggling in ukraine, the post writes this. on state television, and military analyst doubled down on russia's need to win and called for concentration camps for ukrainians that opposed to the invasion. that report also says other commentators have doubled down on describing ukrainians as nazis. all of that is ridiculous, but it's what the russian people are seeing. why is this -- why is the rhetoric even headed in this direction? why now? >> what else? as has been said here a few minutes ago, the war has orchestrated usually been lost. strategic is one story, nato is getting stronger and ukraine's army is getting stronger also. but as of now, putin's troops can still inflict huge damage on ukraine. and the fact is he appointed the butcher of syria as his head man in ukraine, it shows that they will stop at nothing to show at least something by may 9th which, by the way, was not the real date of german capitulation, but stalin wanted to celebrated as the same day as the free world. he came up with his own date on may 9th. as in syria, the russians use every tool at their disposal, carpet bombing, heavy missiles, and i think that that use of chemical weapons cannot be excluded. again, general dornoch had this expanse in syria. >> you have been critical of the u.s. and our allies, you think that we are not doing enough. we've been doing more since we last spoke. >> things have been changing. we are no longer discussing the principles of giving ukraine real weapons. and we stopped this useless conversation about defensive, offensive weapons. it's about timing now. so i have to give credit to the u.s. and president biden for eventually getting on board and taking the lead. though we will all know that many of the decisions might be wrong, by this administration, where based on pour advice coming from cia and pentagon that heavily underestimated the ukrainian army. and believe that the war would be over in four, or five days. >> certainly not, here we are. day 51 and what happened? the loss of that russian warship. general, how much of a military setback is that? is it really just symbolic and huge emotional or morale boosting win for ukrainians? or is it serious business in terms of the loss? >> well i think it's also a huge boost for ukrainian morale. by the way, i have no doubt in my own life for having followed this for the last 24 hours, ukrainian sunk the ship with two neptune missiles and a deception operation. it was a very clever aggressive move. and there's also unconfirmed rumors that much of that ships party were lost at sea. so we need to listen to it in the coming day. but look, that was the flagship, that was not only pounding ukrainian civilians with cruise missiles for 1000 miles inland, it was also part of the air defense protection of 21 russian combatant and am fed ships. that's how the logistics of getting the support russian army fighting mariupol. so this is a big hole, knocked in their capability. the rest of the fleet has now withdrawn 80 miles away from the coast. so this is a real military setback to the russian -- putin's forces. >> nbc's molly hunter rice and lee talked to ukrainian about russia's -- excuse me, russia's navy efforts to take the city of odessa. we have seen videos for days of those ships sort of trolling the shoreline back and forth. and the ukrainians she spoke to was simply not having it. watch this. >> we will kill them, drowned them, he says. they have no options. >> so you don't think they can take odesa? we will thank them and it will be fish feeding season, he says. and our fish will grow fat. >> our fish will grow fat. ambassador, how big of a win is this for ukrainian morale? >> for stephanie, i heard, first thing this morning from several -- two of my friends in ukraine, they were both ecstatic. both were military, one was former defense minister, the other is in the military right now. they knew exactly what was going on. they knew it was their own neptune that they created, they manufactured, they were so proud. they were so hot. they knew the big problem is coming. one of my friends is on the line out in his room. so they are aware of this big battle that is coming. but this was an enormous boost for this this morning. >> gary, how concerned were you that this is so humiliating for putin he will truly seek revenge? he could bomb ukraine's railways, he could do some really twisted stuff. he does not like being humiliated. >> it's humiliation and he will try to do his best. but again, he lost his faction. and as general just pointed out, russian warships have been used as the prime source of firing missiles to ukraine. they actually cause more damage than russian bombers. that had to fly to high just on low altitude because they're vulnerable for technology and supplied with -- allies. but i think it will it's not just a boost for ukrainians, i think it sends panic to russian sailors, russian troops. because the fact is that it was hit by two, let's be honest, old-fashioned missiles. and, yes clever, deception, i heard, it but it's a sign of negligence. they were so confident that they were out of danger, they were shelling ukrainian cities and they thought, well, okay, how can ukrainians even shoot at us? and i think it may have serious consequences for the morale of russian fleets, russian navy. and without the strategic advantage of the russian navy offered to putin's armies, i think it will soon find themselves in great, great trouble. >> general, let's look ahead, we've been talking about what's coming next, with the russians are preparing for, what are you watching for as we are heading into this next phase of war? >> well, can the ukrainian generals, who have been extremely good and our technical leadership, and the sergeants, they created an and see your core, can they deal with armored warfare, a war of fire and maneuver? we are finally getting longer distance weapons and suffer parallel weapons. but the ukrainians have been doing hybrid warfare. they've been using extremely good special operations forces guerrilla units, but it's been urban defense. now they have a war of maneuver against the russians who have massive armor. i'm encouraged, however, the ukrainians have recalled 200,000 territorial forces. we are rushing to farm them, a body armor, anti tank vessels, the ratio of forces is actually one-on-one now. the only place for russians have a serious advantage is a five fold advantage in air power. so the battle is about to be joined in the coming 30 to 90 days, the existence of the ukrainian army is the vital outcome. can they defeat the russians and still be a force in being? >> gentlemen, before we go. gary, i want to ask you about putin opponent vladimir kara moshe, he is now under arrest. do you have any updates, do any know anything about his situation? >> no, not -- nothing i can add to what you already know. the only question remains unanswered is whether these arrests for 15 days were a last warning basically telling him get out of the country, or he will not see daylight out of prison because they will come up in 15 days with criminal charge against him. i hope for the former, but you never know. the >> you never know, but we hope for the best. gentlemen, thank you very much for starting me this evening,. i coming, up a jury who gets the final say in the case of an accused writer who claimed that he was following presidential orders. but then the judge as in a scathing warning. later, the world's richest man wants to own twitter and promises changes if he gets his way. the 11th hour just getting underway on this very busy thursday night.