but investigators say the whole thing was made up "today," thursday, december 16, 2010. captions paid for by nbc-universal television and welcome to "today" on this thursday morning, i'm meredith vieira. >> i'm matt lauer.the house of representatives set to vote on this tax compromise today, expected tbe closer in the senate, where it was 81-19. >> despite a new call from president obama to pass the bill without changes, house democrats say to expect a heated debate over at what point estates should be taxed and how much. going to get the latest from capitol hill straight ahead. also ahead, new details in the brutal murder of yeardley love, a lacrosse player at the he university of virginia. attorneys for her ex-boyfriend who also played lacrosse for uva and are charged in the case are casting doubts on how love died d they want her medical records to allegedly prove their case. we are going to have more on that coming up. plus, important news for parents. the government outlaws drop-side cribs that can be found in millions of homes, hotels and day care centers. so, what if you already have one? we will tell you wh you should do coming up. let start this morning in washington where the tax cut bill heads to the house after passing a senate vote. nbc's capitol hil correspondent, kelly o'donnell, has the latest. kelly, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, matt. there is a complication to this that can only happen one time a year and it is here the politics of christmas. with pressure to get some important things done there is really a lot of fighting going on and democrats and republicans are not spreading holiday cheer. twas the fightefore christmas. >> this is a terrible way to run the federal government's business. >> reporter: the senate to-do list is long. >> the senate will come to order. >> reporter: republicans say there is only time left to fund the government before the money runs out this saturday. >> we ought to pass the tax legislation and keep the lights on. everything se, mr. president, can wait. >> reporter: democrats say they are not leaving town. >> yet, some of my republican colleagues have the nerveo whine about having to stay in acon, do the work of the american people. >> reporter: republicans' message to harry reid, don't mess with christmas. >> the democrat leadership somehowhinks that by being here christmas week, that that an act of courage, that they are being courageous by having congress here because we are doing all these important things. >> reporter: but reid blames republicans for stalling bills all year. >> so, it says to me and millions of working aricans and me acrosthis country, any senator suggest working through the christmas holidays is somehow sackry limp joyce or disrespectful. >> reporter: today, t senate will debate the new s.t.a.r.t. eaty with russia. >> we are ready to be here all weekend. we are ready to work and vote. >> reporter: the nuclear arms reduction treat city a top priority for the white house. vice president biden says the senate must get it done before heading home. >> i hope i don'tet in the way of your christmas shopping, you about this is the nation's business. this is a national security at stake. act. act. >> reporter: both democrats and republicans in the senate did pass the president's tax cut compromise wednesday. >> the yeas are 81. the nays are 19. >> reporter: today it goes to the not-so-happen had i pow where liberal democrats are upset the president refuses to reduce tax breaks for the wealthy. >> it appears our leadership is attempting to avoid our wishes and bring this bill forward without major changes. it will be a disaster for the american people. >> reporter: and the president has showed some calm but impatient pushing toward the house, saying don't make any changes. d on the sena side, they are saying don't make any changes but toy, they will still try to peel back some of the benefits on the estate tax, but it is expected to be much tighter and there is still a lot of hope that this tax cut compromise can get done today. matt? >> kelly o'donnell on capitol hill for us. thank you very much. indiana congressman mike pence announced he will not vote for the tax cut deal. congressman people, good morning to you. >> good morning, matt. >> you said ts is a tough call. how do you think it will go in the rest of the house? do you think it will pass? >> i think it is a tough call no house republican wants to see taxes go up on any american. and most ofs have been fighting to make sure that no american sees a tax increase in january, but for my part, i just believe that this tax deal will do little to create jobs. it adds to the national debt. i think we can do better. think we can take time do better and congress should do just that. >> even as you make this decision, one of your fellow republicans, paul ryan is criticizing it, saying th is purely a political decision. as a matter of fact, i think he goes further to say i think it is a personal, political decision, meone being considered or perhs considering running for president in 2012, you can't be seen as too cooperative with the democrats or president obama. how do you resnd to that? >> well, i would respond, look, we -- my decision is based exclusively on what i think is the right thing to do for the american people and that is -- you got t recognize a couple of things. first, uncertainty is the enemy of our prosperity. a two-year extensionefgts tax code is not going to encourage the kind of investment that going to begin to create jobs in this economy. and i really believe that this -- this congress ought to take a breath. we ought to roll our sleeves up and we ought to do what we can, like john f kennedy did like ronald reagan did and embrace permant extensions of all the tax rates. i'm arguing, you know, let's not do this take it or leave it deal from the senate. if the liberals want to have an amendment today on raising taxes, let every house republican vote on what we know would help this economy -- >> not a take it or leave it --. permanent extension of the deal. >> not a tke it or leave it deal, there is compromise in this deal there are things in this package that neither side likes but that's the basis of coromise and suspect that what's better for the country at this particular moment? >> well, i think, yeah i hear about the comprise.i know that this deal was largely negotiated by leaders in the senate and the white house, despite the fact that the constitution clearly says the bills relating to taxes shou begin in the use of representatives. but, look, bottom line is this is not about whetherr not there was compromise involved. it is what is it going to take to get this economy moving again? and a two-year tax extension that simply takes tax ireases scheduled for january and says th are going to come two years from january is not going to encourage the kind of investment are that will put americans back to work. i was in money circumsnce indiana, just the other day mattand i had a banker walk up to me and say, look, nobody is going to come innd sign a five-year note and borrow money and create jobs on a two-year tax code. that is the reality. what we e asking for is an up or down vote on making all the current tax rates permanent. i think most americans know that's what we should be doing to get this economy moving again. >> congressman mike pence from indiana. congressman, thanks for your time this morning much i appreciate it. >> thank you. >> it is 7:07, here is meredith. >> matt, thank you. so what do americans think about what is going on in washington? chuck todd, nbc's political director and chief white house correspondent has the results o the latest nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. chuck, good morning to you. what does the poll show us about how americans feel abo the tax deal? >> good morning, meredith well, let's start with that tax deal. 59% approve of the overall deal that includes 54 of democrats, 68% ofrepublicans. in fact, even self-described liberal democrats, 50% of them support this de, 47% disapprove of it. so, there is broad support here and i think that's you why saw it fly through the senate and it will probably only hit little speed bump notice house but probably get through. >> obviously, the white house hopes this bipartisan bill is passed because as the president put it he took a real shellacking in those midterm elections. he needs a victory here. the poll these 54% of the people believe that the president got the message after midterms. how are his approval ratings? >> well, they p, but only about half of that group believe he is making necessary adjustments. now, his approval rating is actually -- took bit of a hit compared to last month. he is sitting at 45% approve, 48% disappro. part of that has to do with the fact that more people tell us the country i headed on the wrong track than at any time during this obama presidency. now, one remarkable thing about the president's approval rating it is actually kind of static over the last year and our pollsters say considering everything he went through, including that shellacking in the elections, the fact that still is at 45% is actually quite remarkable. >> a good sign. let's look ahead to 2010. you started to match president obama up against potential gop candidates. how does he fare? >> against an unknown republican, he is in a bit of trouble. he only gets 42% of folks saying that they would support him for re-election, 39% would pick the republican candidate. no put some faces with those names and he actually gets a bill bit stronger. matched up against mitt romney, the quasifront runner, very early, of course, 47% for the president, 40% for mitt romney. against john thune, one of the unknowncandidates, mike pence and national name recognition, the president sits at 47. you kind of see a pattern here, thune at 27%. then match him up against sarah palin and you see some problems here for sarah palin because the president gets 55, palin gets 33. that is more about sarah palin an it is president obama, because look at these negative ratings, meredith. >> yeah. >> she is sitting at 50% negative. >> palin, for all the exposure she has had this year does not do well the voters? >> not at all n fact there is a real divide. dig inside the numbers. sitting at that 50% negative rating. makes her the most unpopular politician we tested in our poll this month and tied for the most unpopular we have tested all year. only nancy pelosi scores an equal rating. women are more negative toward her. really, the only positive group of voters sitting out there, meredith are fox news viewers, one of the only group of voters she has a positive rating. >> on that note, chuck todd, thank you very much. >> you got t. >> is 7:11 once again, here is matt. >> thank you we are learning more about the gunman who opened fire at a school board meeting this week before he turned that gun on himsf. his wife spoke out on wednesday. nbc's mar potter is in panama city, florida with the latest on this story. mark, good morning to you. >> reporter: good morning to you, matt. the mor we look at the shooter here, the more we see a man with a criminal past who was mentally troubled and believed in conspiracies, he was als well armed. >> you may leave. you may leave. >> reporter: 56-year-old clay handgun threatened the bay coun school board and then opened fire, a terrified witness called 911. [ gunshots ] >> oh, my gosh, he is firing. he is firing. is firing. i don't know -- >> are you secure where you are? >> yes. need an ambulance. >> reporter: in confronting the school superintendent, four board members and their attorney, duke said he was angry his wife had been fired from her teacher's job. rebecca duke, who is separated from him, says he suffered from economic and emotional pressures. >> the economy and the world just got the better of him had. and along with his bipolar, it just set him up for this horrible event. >> reporter: while police confirm rebecca was fired from her teaching job, they say she was unaware of duke's plans to lash out at the school board. even his former lawyer agreed the gunman had mental problems and wasn't shocked he was involved in the shooting. >> please don't. please don't. >> he was the guy who everybody you hear about on the news that believes in the end of the wld and conspiracy theories and things of that nature. he was that type of guy. >> reporter: in the year 2000, duke was convicted of aggravated stalking and shootininto a vehicle in a case involving his ex-wife. he was sentenced to five years in prison. >> he was dressed in full camouflage, had an assault weapon and basically, was planning on killing her the day that he was gonna meet her at her house. >> reporter: despite what happens at the school board, rebecca duke insists he was trying to turn his life around. >> he wanted a second chance. he lived in a very quiet community in out -- out in the woods so that he could -- wouldn't have to deal with the stress. >> reporter: police say they believe duke planned the school board attack for some time and arrived there tuesday with lots of ammunition. >> he had an extra magazine that was fully loaded in his back pocket at the time of the shooting. and then he had another box of ammo. >> reporter: neighbors describe duke as quiet and a loner, much different from the aggressive gunman who opened fire on school officials then took his own life after being wounded in a gun fight. now, later this morning, schoo board security chief mike jones who confronted clay duke and ended the shooting, will tell his side of the story at a news conference and he is being hailed here by many people as a hero. matt? >> mark potter in panama city for us this morning. mark, as always, thanks very much. it is 13 minutes after the hour. once again, here's meredith. >> thank you. now the latest on the arrest of julian assange, the wikileaks founder back in a london court this morning. nbc's peter alexander i there for us. good morning, peter. >> rorter: meredith, good morning to you. just a short time ago, julian assange's lawyers say they have collected the $315,000ash bail needed for assange's release that means at the end of today's hearing, if the appeal is denied by a brish judge, julian assange willalk out of this courthouse a free man. followed by a crowd of cameras, this morning's ride to court m be julian assange's final trip in police custody. the enigmatic founder of wikileaks, seen here through the police van's heavily tinted windows, could be preparing for extraordinary change of scenery from solitary confine n a prison to this 600-acre estate outside london so big, it straddles two counties. assange's own lawyer jokily reversion to it as mansion arrest. the ten-bedroom english manor volunteered by owner vaughan smith, the owner of a british club for journalists where assange has appeared in the past. >> i let him stay there i believe in supporting the unrdog. i think's friend of mine. i trust him. >> reporter: smith acknowledge it had will likely be one of the most unusual christmases i have ever experienced. for the man who has made freedom of information his life'swork, the price of his ownreedom is $315,000 cash bail. with several prominent celebrities off attorney general help cover the cost, including documentary filmmaker michael moore and mick jagger's ex-wife, bianca jagger. ba comes with strict conditions. the former computer hacker would be under curfew, wearing an electronic monitor and requid to check in with authorities each night. assange stil faces possible extradition to swede.for questions over allegations of sexual misconduct by two women assange met at this wikileaks seminar this summer, allegations he denies. asan only's mother who flew in from us a trail to support her son, described had his attitude toward his time behind bars. >> of course anger was actually the term that he used. >> reporter: the "new york times" is today reporting that federal prosecutors trying to seek a case against asan only in the u.s. are trying to find any evidence of possible coalition between asan only and the army intelligence analyst, bradley manning, the man who is suspected of leaking those classified documents. so for now, we stand outside and wait. meredith, back to you. >> peter alexander, thank you very much. t's get a check of the rest of the morning' top stories. natalie is over it news desk while ann is a little under the weather today. i hope she feels better. good morning, natly. >> wishing app well. good morning to you guys and good morning everyone. a hotly anticipated white house review of the war in afghanistan has just been released this morning. c's jim miklaszewski is at the pentagon for us. good morning, mick and what does the report say? >> reporter: good morning, natalie. the president's review say the afghanistan strategy is pretty much on course, that in many parts of the country, taliban momentum has either been stopped or even reverse bud it also warns that any progress is still fragile and reversible. still, big concerns about receipt liability of the afghanistan government and those taliban safe havens across the board terror in pakistan. but when i was in afghanistan last week with secretary of state gates, i never have seen him or the u.s. milita commanders there more optimistic about that mission. they do warn, however, that it still remains a long, hard fight and that american troops are going to be on the ground there for years. natalie? >> jim miklaszewski at the pentagon for us. thank you, jim. freezing temperatures and icy roads in the soueast are to blame for five deaths in mississippi and alabama, inuding three high schoolers. several school district notice area canled classes due to dangerous road conditions. federal government has now banned drop-side cribshat are a tape is until millions of americans homes. nbc's pete williams has the story. >> reporr: cribs with one side that can be dropped down can make picking up the baby easier but an edge can come loose and a child can get caught in the gap. the government says 32 infants have died that way. that's what happened to 10-month-old tyler witt of new york. >> i rocked him, i put him to bed at 1:00 in the morning aft his 1 a.m. feeding and i never imagined that would happen. >> reporter: 11 million of the cribs have been recald and some retailers have stopped selling em. now, the consumer product safety commission has voted unanimously to ban drop-side cribs a topped toughen federal crib testing. >> i believe these new standards will markedly reduce crib-related hazards and ensure young children sleep more safely in their ibs. >> reporter: under the new rules taking effect in june it will be illegal to make or sell drop side cribs that includes reselling them, too, on websites like ebay, craigslist or second hand stores. child care centers and hotels will hav two years to phase them o and he place them with cribs with stationary sides. drop-side cribs still in home cbs safely used if the sides are locked into pce so they cannot move. pe williams, nbc news, washington. australian officials are launching a criminal investigation into wednesday's shipwreck that killed at least 28 asylum seers, including 11 children on the shore of christmas island. november foreclosures droppeto their lowest rate in 18 months, according to realtytrac, but the dip is a result of freensz repossessions imposed for improp letter handled evictions a foreclosures. now 7:19, you are up to date. to become meredith, matt and al. >> natalie, thank you very much. >> se thing. >> a first check of the weather from al roke >> i have amazing video for you here. good morning. the snow is falling and reaching the ground in virginia. here's a live picture of 81. you can see the snow already on the ground there