good morning. an welcome to "inside politics sunday." i'm manu raju. one year from today, american will go to the polls to choose a president and there are alarm bells going off inside of the white house this morning. there are three big polls out for the race of the white house and none it good for joe biden. the race for president is decided state by state so we want to focus on a series of battle ground state polls from "the new york times," in nevada, trump leads by 10 and by six in georgia and five in arizona and five in michigan and four in pennsylvania. biden has just a narrow two-point lead in wisconsin. now biden won all six of the states in 2020 and needs to win four of them to be re-elected an if you dig deeper into the poll, things look even bleaker. videoers in the six states say biden's policies have hurt them personally and the numbers are flipped when you ask about trump. more say trump policies have helped them personally. and then there are huge cracks in the coalition that won biden the white house in 2020. yes, he's leading among the demographics but not by as much as needs to be. he's ahead of trump in young voters by one point and trump wins 22% of black voter clz would be a huge measure for a republican. and the margins are small for bi biden among hispanics and suburb voters. so let dig into the numbers with melanie zanona and daniel straus, and isaac donor and seung min kim of the associated press. thank you for being here. and isaac and several of you have been talking to your sources this morning. but i want to start with you about what are you hearing about the biden campaign, how they plan to deal with this and this is going to prompt any change in strategy? >> the biden campaign feels in terms of change in strategy, they have a strategy they're basically sticking with it. the came officials that i spoke with this morning say to me, they know the polls don't look good but they say that at this moment, the negative feelings about biden are baked into the way people feel about him, they haven't had a chance to make the positive argument for him and to get voters to think about that with all of the campaigning and advertising they're going to do in the year ahead. they feel like also when you look at this as a question of donald trump versus joe biden, that a lot of the voters have not clicked into the election yet, but they're not thinking about donald trump as being the nominee. they haven't gotten to that stage of it. and in fact, he may not be the nominee. of course, what that means in these numbers might be that if sp someone other than trump is the nominee, then all those attached to donald trump would not be there in the same way. when you talk to other democrats not in the biden campaign, they say they know that joe biden is not going to be necessarily the person who is going to excite the voters and electrify the electorate. but what they need to do is to make this not a choice between joe biden and donald trump. if that is what it is. but a choice between two different visions of the country, to all of the consequences and abortion politics and democracy. that is -- and that joe biden will be on the guy on the ballot. >> and they keep saying it is about a contrast. once voters tune into the contrast. don't compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative. let's talk about the voters in "the new york times" story. they voted for biden in 2020. this is about the voters in that poll. they say the world is falling apart under biden. that is from spencer weiss who is in bloomberg, pennsylvania. i would match rather see someone that i feel i could be a positive role model leader for the country but i think at least trump has his wits about him. and travis waterman from phoenix said i don't think he's the right guy to go toe-to-toe to the world leaders that don't respect him. he voted for biden in 2020 but they see him as weak and now preferred mr. trump. and that poll said that 71 percent of voters believe that biden is too old, even though he's just four years older than donald trump. just 39% believe that trump is too old to be an effective president. >> right. and think with the liabilities facing president biden right now, obviously some of those liabilities, the campaign can work to change. for example, voters said about the economy, certainly the contrasting effort that they're going to make. but unfortunately for democrats, president biden is not getting younger. that is one thing that they could not reverse. so they really have to kind of set that age issue aside and make lyde of it. president biden has been making -- poking fun at himself and getting laughs out of the crowd that way. also pointing to age on the sign of wisdom but that is a vulnerability that is not going to go away and perhaps aggravate as the months go on. i was really fascinated in "the new york times" poll about how he's doing in nevada. because nevada is a state that he did win in 2020. probably trending a little bit more blue in recent cycles. but the fact that he's down ten, and again we are a year out from the election. but him being down ten points in that state, what is really certainly raising my eyebrows. and nevada didn't look great for democrats either. in 2022, obviously, he did well for the most part. but still that was really eye-catching. >> absolutely. and what was will eye-catching, is the numbers on the issues. the determine of the elections an the economy always a central issue. economy, 59% believe that trump would do a better job than biden. 22 more -- 22 favorite on the issue of economy and only on abo abortion, biden has a online point lead. and voters under 30 trust trump better by 28 points. that is a demographic that the biden campaign needs to come out in droves to help him win. and the biden campaign recognizes that the economy is vent ral and point to the positive numbers and signs in the economy. this is how they messaged it. >> today, unemployment is at record lows. our economy leading the world. joe biden passed historic laws to rebuild the country. there are some who say america is failing, not joe biden. >> but there is a clear economic indicator that things are better in the country and they passed a slew of legislation in the first two years. but the challenges is always are voters feeling it? >> there is a perception of democrats is that on the economy they will tell you things are getting better. we've made everything better and the votes won't feel this. so the biden re-election team has to walk a tight rope here. on the one hand they have to tout what they've done and message at the same time, we know that you're still feeling the impacts of a negative economy, of inflation. and we are working to improve that. we still feel your pain. and that is going to be a big, big factor for the biden re-election campaign to take into account over the next -- >> and this is going to prompt a discussion within the democratic party about what to do about biden. whether he's the best candidate for the job. david axlerod, the obama adviser, tweeted whether it is wise for biden to continue on here as the candidate even though he will certainly get the nomination, but can he win a general. that is joe biden's decision. and he said that will cause tremors among democrats according to axelrod. there is a candidate in the race, dean philips, just entered the race a few days ago. he said the polls are bad for biden and biden will lose. >> there is this bizarre and dangerous culture of silence in washington, in certain political and industrial complex circles. that is dangerous. i mean dangerous. and we're putting blinders on. it will make 2016 look like a joyful year. >> so i asked phillips this morning about the poll. he sent me a back a message saying i could offer no statement more powerful than the one made by suffering americans in this poll. he goes on to say that as a democratic nominee, he would defeat trump and pass his bill on worker's family relief pack. do you expect as we get back, congress comes back to session, the democrats will be in panic mode or join the biden campaign and say it is a year out and everything will be fine. >> there is a lot of panic. i don't know if they're saying that publicly. but it does give polling to a generic democrat. and this is going to take the wind out of the sails of some of the republican candidates who are trying to take on trump. particularly a ron desantis or nikki haley who have made a huge part of the campaign on the idea that trump is not electable and better positioned to beat joe biden but based on this polling, not a year out. >> and the trick is who would it be in this scenario. i had a piece with democrats saying it is trial to get on the train. gretchen whitmer saying that, because the doubts over the last year have ceded some of joe biden's problems here and they'll have to figure out what they do. if joe biden said he wasn't running, then we would be back here in the few weeks saying that the democrats are in disarray. that is what the problem is with trump continuing to show strength. >> and trump has so many legal problems. four criminal indictments, something we've seen never before and some of these could go to trial before the election. he's going to testify tomorrow in court in his civil fraud trial. and all of these problems, though, are helping him in the primary. and they don't seem to be hurting him in the general election according to polls today. >> a lot of the swing voters aren't necessarily tuned into the intricacies of trump's legal problems but in the primary he's somehow turned 91 criminal indictments and a host of civil issues into a strength. and he's saying they're coming after me because i'm fighting for you. and it has worked. which is why you are seeing beyond just the long loyalty that republican primary voters have had for trump. it is why he's continuing to lead in all of the republican primary early states and all of the polling. the only person that seems to be gaining any traction is nikki haley as of late. we'll see in the republican debate. >> and she's still significantly -- >> significantly behind. >> 40 some odd points behind. >> exactly. >> and i think where biden is leading on trump is abortion. and on tuesday we'll get a clear preview of whether that is still a potent issue for democrats. there is elections in virginia, an ohio ballot initiative on tuesday. and both parties are testing out their messages. republicans for the first time are punching back trying to actually respond and instead of ignore it. we'll see how that plays out on tuesday. >> and it is such a good point because in ohio there is a referendum there. so far rights have succeeded in six states so far including if places like kansas and kentucky. so abortion is a big deal there. a year out. a lot could happen. the issues could change. and the candidates could too. next, president biden faces pressure to bridge the growing democratic divide on the middle east. and later my exclusive one-on-one with congressman george santos. hear what he had to say about the calls for his expulsion and the criminal charges he's facingng, coming u up. welcome back to "inside politics sunday." i want to turn to the middle east where secretary of state antony blinken traveled to the west bank to meet with the president of the palestinian authority. now blinken has spent the weekend in the region trying to thread the needle between israel's right to defend itself and growing calls for a cease-fire to stop the suffering in gaza. here is how white house's deputy national security adviser john finer described the meetings just moments ago. >> the number of the arab countries are calling for a cease-fire. secretary blinken spoke quite clearly to why we believe now is not the time for an overall cease-fire. although we have made clear that we would support and are advocating for humanitarian pausing. but i think underneath that area of disagreement, there is actually a lot of alignment among the united states and our arab partners on the fact that we cannot go back to a pre-october 7th mindset. >> and president biden said there is progress in achieving a humanitarian pause in gaza but israel air strikes are not stopping. this video shows the aftermath from a strike this morning. and the civilian death toll rises, biden is losing patience in his own party. dana bash asked bernie sanders about that moments ago. >> israel has a right to defend itself. hamas has sworn, it is goal to destroy israel. and they have to deal about that. but they have to be a better way than kills thousands of men, women and children. so once again the immediate concern is you got to have a pause in the bombing. you got to take care of immediate disaster. >> you cover the white house for the associated press and this past week, how are they trying to balance, the president trying to balance this humanitarian crisis happening in gaza which is showing this res olute support for israel. >> it is a difficult line to walk. because from october 7th on they're made clear their staunch support for israel, israel military actions, they've made it clear that they're not going to dictate what israel'sm military does. and they say they relayed this in private, but israel does have to keep the civilian -- the toll on civilians in mind. and you see that coming as you're seeing growing pressures and growing unease from members of his own party. i was struck by chris murphy's statement last week, he's a defender of the administration when it comes to foreign policy decisions and the fact that he said this is basically this is going too far. this is -- there needs to be some sort of a course change. i think that is indicative of what a lot of democratic lawmakers are feeling right now, but israel is an important issue for joe biden. it is an issue with them that goes back decades and it is hard, how do you scale the support back without angering your israeli allies and those who are supportive of israel. it is hard to do. >> as we talked about in the last segment, this is all playing out in the presidential campaign and this is an issue that a lot the voters care deeply about. and isaac, you have a story out today about the tension here within the democratic party and there is a headline of your story biden aides grapple with cracks in coalition. is there tension or frustration between the white house and the president's handling of this issue and what campaign wants the president to do? >> well, look, as i was saying, israel for joe biden is not an issue about politics. he feels that in his core, it goes to things that he thinks about right and wrong and he is not going to back away from his support off israel even if this is a political liability. and some have told him it looks like a political liability. and so you've seen this push to connect with muslim americans and arab americans have been off to a rocky start. someone told many he that one of the first emails went out was addressed saloms, with an "s" at the end. and they're starting to build that up. and reaching up to jewish supporters around the country. it is important here, we sometimes talk only about where the critics are and where the opponents are, but there are a lot of people who are drawned to connect with biden on this, a lot of jewish americans and we could think about this as states that have large muslim populations like michigan and minnesota and georgia and the states also have large jewish populations. so all of the things in balance. >> i'm glad you brought both of those things up. first look at how the polls are saying. quinnipiac poll, do you approve how israel has responded to the attacks. democrats just 33% support the response to the hamas terror attack and 49% say no according to a recent quinnipiac poll. and then you talk about michigan being so critical, this is one that democrats recognize could slip away depending on how biden handled this issue. dianne gallagher spoke to a number of muslim voters an arab voters in michigan and asked thenl about joe biden. >> if you would have asked me a month ago, i would have said absolutely 100% no doubt about it. but honestly the past few weeks have changed everything. >> i will gladly turn in an empty ballot. >> if the election was to be held today, i can't promise you that he will get five votes from arab americans in the city of dearborn. >> that is my home state. and it is shocking and important for any political team to realize that there is a large very active muslim population in michigan and there is an equally large very active very politically conscience jewish population in michigan. and there is fno better petri dish for sentiment among those two groups. and i want to point out that for republicans, this topic is not really international relations. it is a question about foreign -- about biden's competency. so when they attack him on his handling of this crisis in gaza, whether they attack him on afghanistan, they all want to tie this to whether biden is up to the job, up to handling a major world crisis like this. and they think that is effective for the voters that they are reaching out to, this election cycle. >> and there is one michigan democratic congresswoman, rashida tlaib have gotten a lot of attention and not directly condemned the hamas attack and also had this warning for the president as well. >> mr. president, the american people are not with you on this one. [ crowd chanting ] we will remember in 2024. >> one of things that she talks about from the river to sea, she's calls it an aspirational call for free doom and it is viewed as a anti-semitic remark. a rallying cry for hamas to get rid of the jewish state. democrats, how are democrating dealing with rashida tlaib right now. >> there was an effort led by marjorie taylor greene to censure her. no democrat supported that. even democrats who have been critical of tlaib behind closed doors or publicly. they took issue with the fact that it was marjorie taylor greene with this. and it is the face of divide in the democratic party over israel. it is a generational divide. but i will say there has been a slight shift in tone from democrats on the hill who are largely giving israel the benefit of the doubt when it came to their military strategy. now they are saying things like, well, maybe this could backfire. we need a more surgical approach. we need a pause for humanitarian aid and you are seeing that somewhat reflected in the way biden is not talking about this. he mentioning the civilian toll more and more when he speaks publicly. so i think there is an effort to nod to that side of the party but it has created division into the party. >> rashida tlaib has been clear where she is on this issue for a long time. i'm not sure that she demonstrates where this divide is at this point as much as on friday night there was a big gathering of obama campaign al alumni in chicago and he did a live interview on the pause of america and he spoke about talking about the occupation and israel and anti-semitism and all of these things. when he talked about anything that was defending israel or condemning anti-semitism, there was silence in the room. when he talked about how there needs to be a palestinian state, there needs to be a change in what is going on in gaza, there were cheers and applause. that is one measure where some parts are in the democratic party. >> so much will continue to play out as this war carries on. and coming up for us, he's one of the most famous on capitol hill but for all of the wrong reasons. my exclusive interview with congressman george santos, next. >> would you acknowledge fabric atsing large portions of your life. i'm wondering, people want to know why. >> manu, manu, we've gone through this. you're probably not easily persuaded to switch