sglmplgtsz today on "inside politics," rising fast. a brand new cnn poll out this hour reveals the shifting sands of the 2024 race and the critical battleground state of new hampshire. one candidate has surged to second while another has plummet ed into the single digits. plus substantial evidence. that's what a damning new report from the house ethics committee says about george santos steal ing from his own campaign, among other things. so just how long can the embattled congressman hold on to his seat? and trust but verify that's how president trump is describing his approach to xi jinping, but he also called the chinese president a dictator. can the two super powers still play nice? i'm dana bash. let's go behind the headlines and "inside politics." we start with cnn's brand new polling out of that critical primary state of new hampshire. donald trump remains the front runner. but there are new data points for other candidates that are showing a shift in the field. political director david chalian is at the wall. david, tell us about what this says for the former governor of south carolina. >> you're noting her movement, but we should remind folks here, donald trump is still way out in front of the primary state. our brand new poll conducted with university of new hampshire, donald trump's at 42% of likely voters. nikki haley is at 20%. that's a 22-point lead, and that is big. but i'm going to show you something here. you're going to see her growth. chris christie at 13%. ron desantis and vivek ramaswamy now in single digits. and look at the change over time. nikki haley is up 8% since september from 12 to 20. that's the real movement in this polling. you see trump is holding about even. christie upticks a little bit. the other significant movement here is down 5 points for vivek ramaswamy from 13 to 8. i know there's not much movement for ron desantis, but psychologically, getting down in the single digits is not the right direction. >> so we like to talk about how solid, sticky this support is for the candidates. what's the answer? >> we ask folks s is your mind made up, or is there room for folks to make a case? 52% of likely republican primary voters in new hampshire say they are definitely decided. 35% say they are leaning to someone. just 12% say they are still deciding. but if you add in trump supporters here, just take a look. those who say donald trump is their choice in this primary, 83% say they are solidly locked in. that's the stickiness of his support. 11% are leaning to someone. and as you know, one of the main arguments that we're hearing from arguments not named trump is he can't win. that argument is falling on deaf ears with this new hampshire primary electorate. look at this movement. donald trump back in september, 51% of likely republican primary voters said he had the best chance of winning a general election. that's now up to 57%. so he's up 6 points on eligibility. you see haley has made progress. she's up 5. it's not an argument that donald trump can't win the general election. >> when you initially look at this kind of poll, you think these are just people playing pundit. but it's not just that. it's how they view a candidate and whether or not they think that that republican can bat donald trump, and that dictates their vote. there's another side to this question. >> yes, we asked people, who have you ruled out? you may remember this has been christie's weak point. in september he was -- that's now down to 47%. that's still the largest chunk of the votes. 3 it% say they will never support trump. you see here haley has the lowest here. only 24% ruled her out entirely, but as time goes on and he invests so much in new hampshire, he's making a little bit of progress to at least be considered an option. >> that's really interesting. we want to go back to nikki haley because she is sort of the story along with chris christie in this poll. yesterday she was asked about why she doesn't think this is the right time for donald trump. and what she would say if she were asked to be his vice president. listen to what she said. >> chaos follows him. everywhere he goes, chaos follows him. and in a time where we need to start getting our act together, do we really want to go that route? i don't think we do. i don't think the american people do. >> let me ask you this. if, in fact, he becomes the nominee and he calls you up and says, i want you to be my vice president, would you do that? >> i don't play for second. i have never played for second. i'm not going to start now. >> would you take that position? >> i'm not playing for second. i'm not going to do it. i'm running because this country is in trouble. >> our brilliant report rs are here to break all of this down. jeff zeleny, alena treene and david chalian is now back at the table. jeff zeleny, you were outen the campaign trail a lot, including and especially in new hampshire. does what we're seeing here match with the kind of sentiment you're seeing on the ground? >> it does. i was in new hampshire just a little over a week ago with nikki haley. you can feel the excitementen surrounding her. you can see her in her crowd size. they have not had a trajectory of the race. there's an excitement level that kind of fits the state's electorate. we have covered new hampshire far long time. it's a state where there's a lot of independent minds. so she's been much softer in her views on abortion. she's call ed for a consensus. so yes, it definitely fits that. it also fits the overall picture that donald trump is still in the driver's seat here. and also chris christie. he has a special connection to those independent voters as well. when you add christie and haley up, you're getting close to a challenge there. but that's not how this works. he benefits from the division here. and one small thing on ron desantis. it reenforces the fact why all of his eggs are in iowa's basket. >> that's such a good point. let's pull up some specifics when you look at the person who is still far and away the front runner in new hampshire. policy positions, 67%. physical and mental fitness, 63%. understanding people like you, 60. honesty and integrity, 46. temperament, 37. i don't think anything in those numbers are surprising. >> new hampshire is an interesting state. you look at the other candidates as well. a lot of them see the past to besting trump through new hampshire. that's why they are spending so much time there. s i was in new hampshire last weekend for donald trump's r rally. and i talked to voters. they are very excited about him. even though other people are trying to make a play for the state. they think this is a place where they can gain enough support to become second place. a lot of the voters i talked to were all in on donald trump. very much supports the poll numbers that say the people who have decided and the trump voters are with him. that's what i keep hearing on the road, not just in new hampshire, but in all the other states as well. >> this polling is interesting because of the fact that haley is searching well over ron desantis. but this isn't a true primary competition. trump is far and ahead above all of the other candidates. unless they start to drop out, haley is not going to see any coalescing around herself from the majority of these voters. she's not going to really have a chance at taking donald trump down. there's no indication, despite some republicans say ing they hope they can coalesce around this alternative candidate, there's no indication from establishment that they are actually going to do what they need to do to make sure that happens. >> i want to point out the independents. they can play and go vote in the republican primary. >> they are splitting independents, roughly evenly. trump is so strong. he's dominating in that force. 43% of the electorate in this poll are independents. and if you look back at 2012, the last time there was a republican primary in new hampshire without action on the democratic side, it was about that. it was about 45% of the overall republican primary electoral were independents. and so oddly curious to see how they try to bring in more and more independents into the electorate. >> i want to just look at one other poll. there's lots of interesting data, but one that is really striking is the opinion of vivek ramaswamy. because he was ascending for a little bit. boy, has that changed. look at those numbers. since just september where he was -- this is his favorability, plus 12. now negative 10. >> he's done little to improve his likability. we have seen it on the debate stages. he picks fights, he talks over people, and the things he does on the campaign trail, i'm thinking of one video that his campaign put out about going waste boarding in a suit in miami after the debate, it's very viral. his campaign is more directed toward a different crowd than the new hampshire electorate. that is clear. we have seen a similar fall in iowa in some polling there. but he's still a factor in the race. he's certainly in nikki haley's head. they have been sort of going back and forth. even though he may not seem prepared to win, he could still be a factor. >> he could absolutely be a factor. it's just a reminder that trump is in a category of his own. he can do all of these things that vivek ramaswamy does, but he does it in his own way, and he does it in a way that, of course, alienates some people, but not like this. >> right. and vivek ramaswamy and ron desantis both have tried to be trump 2.0 or a different version of trump, but not really. it's showing that's not actually what's working. especially in a state like new hampshire. they want someone that is actually going to take on those undependents that is going to take on the type of party that trump has created in his image. that's why haley and christie we are seeing move ahead. and they are saying you don't want trump, you can get me who is just like trump. it's not working because trump is on the ballot. >> just to add to that, when i talk to donald trump's team and his advisers and talk about new hampshire, it's interesting because they know that the strategy of others is to try to win through the primaries. similarly, trump's team thinks that if he can do really well in iowa and new hampshire as he's showing to do in the polls, they think that will essentially determine the race. and the others are going to fall like dom knows after that. that's likely going to happen. >> i'm going to speak with chris christie later in this hour. but first, a damning ethics report for george santos. how long can he keep his seat? that's the question now. we'll l tell you m more, next.t. breaking news from capitol hill, a house ethics committee report found substantial evidence that congressman george santos broke the law in their highly anticipated report. the committee write that santos sought to exploit every aspect of this house candidacy for his own personal financial profit. blatantly stole from his campaign and deceived donors into providing what they thought were contributions to his campaign, but were, in fact, payments for his personal benefit. manu raju is live on capitol hill. i mean, i have never read anything like this. it's pretty remarkable. >> yeah, in addition to that, it says in the report he sustained all of that through a quote, constant series of lies to his constituents, donors, and staff about his background and his experience. now the question for george santos is how long he can remain in his seat. he just announced moments ago he would not run for reelection, despite telling me a couple weeks ago he would run, even if he were expelled. we do expect the chairman of the committee tomorrow to file a resolution to kick him out of the house, which would need two-thirds majority to succeed. the question is, can he get there. among the things that are detailed is one of the aspects that he knowingly falsified his financial disclosures with the house. that's part of the 23-count indictment that george santos is facing. he pleaded not guilty to those charges. i asked santos about that exact situation, about allegedly filing those false disclosures with the house. here's what he said. >> in the indictment, it says this is a serious part about filing false reports are the house, allegedly. they said you made up your income. that could be a problem for the ethics probe. did you not list your income properly? >> all i can say is, first, no, that's not true. second, where there mistakes made on those forms, now i know they were. were they malicious, no. did i understand reporting, this is from last year to this year. no, i didn't understand how that worked. and i'm a new candidate. i'm sorry that mistakes were made. >> santos has not formally responded other than through social media i saying if there was a single ounce of ethics in this ethics committee, they would have not released this biassed report. he said the committee went on to extraordinary lengths to exploit my legal team. he did not participate in an interview with this committee. they asked for a volunteer interview. he said no. the big reason why is he would extend this further to next year. but still, this so significant and could lead to his expulsion, something that could happen i by the end of the month. >> that's such an important point that you're making. the eathics committee intentionally didn't put in the recommendation to expel because they wanted it to happen quicker. thank you so much for that reporting. appreciate it. the panel is still with me here. i mean, this is it. it's not that long. the evidence is much longer. but it is so sharp, so blunt, there's absolutely no room for any gray area at all. absolutely about everything that he did. exploit every aspect of his house candidacy for his own financial profit. blatantly stole from his campaign, deceive d donors for payments for his personal benefit, fictitious loans, use connections with high-value donors to obtain additional money for himself, sustained all of this through series of lies to his constituents, to his donors, to his staff. >> essentially, guilty of what we have been read ing about firt in the "new york times" and elsewhere. it's all confirmed. he could putt out a statement at the end through going after the ethics probe, but he did not cooperate. he did not give an interview. he has nothing to say. the reason they didn't subpoena him is because they didn't find him credible. they said he would embellish this. but it's an embarrassment. >> you have been looking through some offed pefd. >> the report says that santos spent some of his campaign money on botox treatments, on lavish atlantic city trips, with his had husband and on that fictitious part that you mentioned, it says he really tried to create this entire fictional narrative around how he was spending the money to cover it all up, and the another important point is the house ethics committee is evenly split. it's half democrats and half republicans. they all unanimously voted in support of this report. >> apparently, i'm told he also spent some of this campaign money on only fans, which is a porn site. so that's good use, i'm sure, of his donor money. this question about what happens in the future, the vote to expel him looks like it's going to happen soon. he did change course and say he's not going to run for reelection. i want to read a tweet from one of his fellow new yorkers. this report confirms we know george san stos a fraud and not serve in the house of representatives. this is why i call ed for his rz i guess nation and believe he needs to be removed from congress. this is a fellow new york republican. we should say politics, theses new york republicans gave the house the majority in the gop. >> they did. and i think what happens next is going to be really fascinating to watch. especially because they have tried to bring up expulsion before for george santos and because they wanted to wait and see. now that they have it, now that they voted unanimously to bring this to the floor, it's going to be a very different game when the expulsion comes up next. the fact that he announced he's not going to seek reelection, even though this report is a smear campaign against him and denying the substance of what is in the report ux that does bring a lot of questions for what will happen next, especially if he does ultimate is expelled from the house, that could mean a special election. what does that mean for the numbers of the small majority. there's a lot to be thought about there. i want you to look at a picture. it's a handshake between two leaders of the two biggest super powers. but there was some a harsh words from president biden for china's long-time leader. we'll talk about that, next. you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? it's true. plus when you buy your first line of mobile, you get a second line free. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening. president biden took questions on the thorny issues facing had his administration in a press conference after his summit with chinese president xi jinping last night. but president biden made the biggest splash when is asked by mj lee whether he still considers xi a dictator. >> mr. president, after today, would you still refer to president xi as a dictator? >> he is. he's a dictator in the sense that he's the guy who runs a cou country. >> my colleague mj is here now to talk about not just that moment after the press conference, but the other sort of notable moments that we heard from the president last night. >> reporter: we did get a fiery response from the chinese foreign ministry to that dictator comment. they said it was extremely erroneous and irresponsible, but the white house has noes interest in dwelling on those comments. they are really pointing to what they say was real progress that was made yesterday at the summit, where they were able to sort of take the heat out a little bit from the tensions between the two countries. they were touting some of the few deliverables that they were able to announce yesterday, including chiefly that military to military communication being reestablished between the two countries. that announcement on cracking down on fentanyl, and the press conference last night was so interesting because even though that summit was entirely focused on u.s.-china relations, the president field ed a numb of questions about the ongoing israel-hamas war. everything on the civilian casualties, the status of the hostage negotiations, where he said he was mildly optimistic, and then he had this to say about the duration of the war and the future of gaza. >> with regard to when is this going to stop, i think it's going to stop when hamas no longer maintains the capacity to murder and abuse and just do horrific things to the israelis. i can't tell you how long it's going to last, but i can tell you i don't think it ends until tallahassee two-state solution. >> reporter: the president answered a number of questions that had to do with the claims there's a hamas control center under the hospital in gaza. the president said he was absolutely confident based on everything he knew, that that was the case, and the white house has been saying that they have their own intelligence making them confident in this view. obviously, there's been a lot of questions about that claim so far. >> mj, thank you so much. appreciate it. joining me now is jim sciutto. let's go back to the discussion about chin