editorial report." i'm paul gigot. and we're counting down to cnn's presidential debate, the first of two, which is set to take place in atlanta on thursday. president biden is at camp david this weekend preparing for the showdown as a new fox news poll finds him in a tight the race with donald trump leading his republican rival 50-48 among registered voters. that's within the margin of error but represents a 2-point gain for the president from last month even as questions continue to swirl about the president's age and ability to serve a second term. is so how crucial is next week's faceoff to putting those concerns to rest? let's is ask "wall street journal" columnists and fox news contributor karl rove. if welcome, karl. so i want you to start out with that fox news poll. this would suggest -- i know it's the only one poll, but this would suggest with some other evidence that there's been some movement towards joe biden since the felony conviction of president trump. do you agree? >> i agree. in fact, take a look at the evidence. here it is, these are the polls vince june -- since june 1st. if they're in red, donald trump won 'em, if they're in blue, joe biden is leading. trump up by 1, biden up by 1, a tie, trump trump by 2, biden up by 2, a tie, so there's been a trend since the may 30th guilty verdict in the new york case. in fact, if you look at the real clear politics national average which is 11 polls, national average, it's trump up by one-half of 1%. and if you look inside that at the 111 polls, number 9 -- should be number 111 has him up by -- is 1 him up by 55 points, excuse me, number9 -- number 9 by 5 points. we continue to see close numbers. we're likely to see that lead dissipate because the most recent polls have had biden ahead. paul: now, where's the movement? as i look at it, looks like the biggest move has been among independent voters who naturally aren't the firmest partisans and are up for grabs. is that how you see it? >> yes, i've got a board for that one -- [laughter] paul: folks, this wasn't planned in advance. >> no, no plan. i read you -- [laughter] i know who you are and where you're coming from. biden has had numbers that have been moving up a little bit under women and seniors. he's feel underperforming among women. trump is doing well among black, hispanic and young comparative previous republican campaigns and his own. and you're right, absolutely, the movement is among independents, and they have moved in recent polls roughly 9 points towards biden. and that's where it's coming from. and, remember, 21% of independents in a survey shortly after the conviction said that they would be less likely to vote for donald trump as a result of a conviction. so 1 out of every 5 independents has said we're hess likely and about just 1 out of every 11 has a moved into the biden camp since then. paul and, of course, that is probably playing into the biden strategy which is to call trump a convicted criminal and hit, bang away at that, bang away on that. what -- how should trump respond? >> well, i'm not certain how useful it is. i think this is one of those things that is better left to the, you know, to the organic process of letting people get the information and imbibe it. i think in the debate itself the more that biden talks about convicted felon, the more it gives trump a chance to say, well, your son has already been found guilty of a gun violation because he was a druggy, and he's now going to be up for tax evasion, so this lends to the view that all politicians are the same. and so i'm not certain that this is going to be, you know, maybe you touch it a little bit, but it would be, to my mind, not the best thing for biden to do in the debate. if you want to look at what each one of them needs to achieve, baden, most important of all -- biden, most important of all, needs to leave us with a sense of sustained mental acuity so we say the guy is up to the job. paul: right. >> we can't have have word salad. he's got to turn this into a choice, it's me and him, and there are big differences on important issues. and it's got to be i get you, i'm about you with. trump, other than, he needs to come across as reasonable. we cannot see the donald trump of 2020 in that first debate where he was screaming and yelling and interrupting. it's got to be a referendum, here are the things, cost of living, energy, national defense. these are things, you know, crime, immigration bigtime. these are things, here's what biden has done wrong. and it's got to be about the future, not about the past and particularly not about his past. if he spends his timesharing his rage rain agreement over the new york decision or claims that the election was rigged, that's not going to stand him in good stead in this election. paul: all right, karl. biden's, i think, going to hit the felon point all the time. biden is also going to talk about january 6th. biden is going to talk about you called these rioters heroes. >> yes. paul: he's going to talk about the four charges against him. and you know jake tapper, jake tapper is going to do the same thing. can trump really not address those, or are you saying he ought to just say, look, you know, you guys are both running existence me, and i'm going to pivot to -- against me, and i'm going to pivot to that i care about you, voters, not about all this stuff that biden cares about. >> exactly. yeah. i think he's got to do two things, teally conviction, short and -- steely conviction, short and to the point. this is all going to be tossed out on appeal because this was a bogus deal, and i know what you two are trying to get me to do, i'm not going to fall for it. i'm going to talk about the things we care about which is the cost of living that people are finding it hard to keep up with, the crisis at our border, a sense of the decline in public safety in our cities. i'm going to talk about, you know, the fact that we're no longer energy independent, i'm going to talk about the things that people are thinking about around the kitchen table, and i'm not going to get suckered into talking about this. it's going to be tossed out on appeal because it was a bogus deal. paul: all right. and for biden, i guess, it's an upside if he kinds coherent. briefly. >> a big victory. and he was helped in this, ironically, by trump who said we gotta, you know, he's a terrible debater, he can't string the two sentences together, and if he does all right, we've got to drug test him because he's going to be on cocaine. lower expectations -- raise expectations for the opponent, don't lower them. paul: thanks, karl, appreciate it. still ahead, as the presidential candidates get set to square off in atlanta on thursday, the biden campaign places a $50 million bet that donald trump's criminal conviction will drive swing state voters away. so will that bet pay off? 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>> yeah. not just on tv, on bill billboards. look, here's what they're trying to do, democrats are essentially trying to say to voters, we hit you with a lot of arguments about donald trump, a lot of details, russia collusion and impeachment, the january 6th commission, classified document withs. you don't need to pay attention to any of those detail, all you need to know is he's a convicted criminal. a jury of 12 of his peers said is so. all the things that you ever worried that you might want to think about trump, you are now safe to believe those, and this is the only choice in the election between me or a convicted criminal. it is a very big bet, paul. they have the money to do it. they've outraised trump. but it's also a way for biden to try to deflect or change the argument away from his own record, and the question for me is whether or not trump falls for that bait and just really responds to this rather than trying to get voters to think about the future and the prospect of more, four more years of joe biden. paul: dan, you heard. carl: rove talk about the movement on the fox poll among independents. does this suggest to you that biden's strategy is working, hitting him as a criminal? do you think it's actually making some inroads? if. >> i do think it's making some inroads. i believe i've said on this show several times that i was intrigued by the polls that have appeared in the past in which some people said that if trump were convicted, they would reconsider their support for him. i personally have never fully understood why other than people have is, may have a red line of some sort, that if a presidential candidate's convicted or, they don't feel like they can vote for him, it hooks like that is ago happening among independent voters. paul: and the election is so close that even a few percentage points makes a difference on that. >> yeah. the question is whether the biden campaign is going to be able to load up their entire campaign on those two words, convicted criminal. do they have the talk about something else. it's a long way to the election, and trump will have to respond at some point. i think he's going to simply have to assert some detail about the manhattan trial and the fact it is the on appeal and that he expects it to be overturned and move on to other subjects. but at the moment, it's having an effect. paul: yeah. i mean, kim, or karl rove's advice was have is some, something of a response particularly in the new york case, say it's going to be overturned on appeal, say some of these cases, i guess, are political and then move on and pivot to making this back to a referendum campaign against joe biden and contrasting the record of donald trump's first term with the record of joe biden's first term. is that good advice? >> yes, it's excellent advice because there is so much to work with there. talk about the inflation. talk about energy prices. talk about baby food shortage aings. talk about -- shortages. talk about the unsettledness of the world and joe biden's failure and weakness in response to our adversaries overseas. but also don't just talk about your past, donald trump's more successful four years in terms of economic and foreign policy, but make some promise about what you're going to do in the future. use this opportunity to play out a bit of an agenda. trump does that a little bit in some of his stump speeches, but he tends to be a bit all over the place. be very precise and make -- give people a reason to want to vote for you. paul: inevitably, dan, this is going to be also voter judgment about the men they see on stage. trump, it's got to be a question of temperament, does he keep cool, calm, can he -- or does he blow up is and get angry? with biden it's -- he tends to keep calm, but it's a question of if he does look coherent. there's some risk too because, as you know, he really only speaks from the teleprompter now. and when he does ad lib are, it can be a wild run. [laughter] >> it can be. and, you know, you just have to step back for a second and consider the way everybody is describing this debate. it's a debate between two men if who are running to become president of the united states, and and what is the top issue? the mental health of both guys. [laughter] can you believe it? if. paul: no, i can't, actually. [laughter] but we have to. >> but that is it. and, you know, i think joe biden, as you said, he has only read off teleprompters and cards for the past three years. he never does, speaks extemporaneously. and i would go so far as to to say that a this rule that they have during the debate to put a mute button on the other candidate while the other is speaking probably works in trump's favor because it's going to force biden to talk at length without teleprompters. and the question is, is he capable of doing that. i will say that in terms of getting under one another's skin, joe biden is unflappable. he will never if break, he will never if snap. he'll keep smiling, and if he can keep talker he'll sound like a reasonable -- talking, he'll sound like a reasonable, semi-competent person. trump, on the other hand, is really prone to reacting when he gets attacked personally. and the question is whether he's going to be able to stay on target or whether he'll blow up -- >> but biden's game plan in part is going to be poke the bear. >> totally poke the bear. paul: when we come back, our panel takes a closer look at a busy week at a the supreme court as the justices crack open the door to a wealth tax and uphold a federal gun ban for those under domestic violence restraining orders. ♪ dad and i finally had that talk. no, not that talk. about what the future looks like. for me. i may have trouble getting around, but i want to live in my home where i'm comfortable and my friends are nearby. i can do it with the help of a barber, personal shopper and exercise buddy. someone who can help me live right at home. life's good. when you have a plan. ♪ ♪ dupixent can help people with asthma breathe better in as little as 2 weeks. so this is better. even this. dupixent is an add-on treatment for specific types of moderate-to-severe asthma that's not for sudden breathing problems. dupixent can cause allergic reactions that can be severe. tell your doctor right away if you have rash, chest pain, worsening shortness of breath, tingling or numbness in your limbs. tell your doctor about new or worsening joint aches and pain or a parasitic infection. don't change or stop asthma medicines including steroids, without talking to your doctor. ask your specialist about dupixent. ♪ rising costs. selective coverage. for countless americans, the complex specialty care they need has always felt... just out of reach. ♪ at evernorth, we give members unrivaled access to the most complex therapies at the best prices. while providing enhanced support like in—home nursing at no additional cost. that's wonder made possible. evernorth health services. a slow network is no network for business. that's why more choose comcast business. and now we're introducing ultimate speed for business, our fastest plans yet. we're up to 12 times faster than verizon, at&t, and t-mobile. and existing customers could even get up to triple the speeds at no additional cost. from the company with 99.9% network reliability and advanced cyber security, it's ultimate speed for ultimate business. and it's all from comcast business. ♪ paul: as we await the supreme court's pivotal decision on presidential immunity, a closer look at a pair of decisions this week that could have far-reaching implications. the justices on thursday upheld a trump era tax on foreign earnings, cracking open the door to the wealth tax that many democrats are eager to pass. and on friday the court upheld a federal law that makes it a crime for people under domestic violence restraining orders to own a firearm in a case that has been closely watched including by first son hunter biden. finish we're back with dan dan henninger kim strassel and and also joined -- dan dan henninger kim strassel and also joined by allysia finley. the unrealized asset tax, five justices said that basically ducked the issue that they had said hay wanted to settle. why is? >> that's ironic, of course, because they took up this case to settle the question of whether congress can tax the unrealized gains or capital gains or appreciated assets. here hay ducked the question and they -- they ducked the question and upheld this mandatory repatriation tax which was on the shareholders of foreign-controlled companies. this is actually a small venture. and it was intended to hit multi-nationals, but it's narrowed a couple. they didn't actually answer question that they took. they had a very narrow ruling upholding this tax but without actually -- or leaving the door open to this wealth tax, as you say, because they didn't address this question. and amy coney barrett, in a concurrence signed by justice alito, chided the majority for not addressing this question. and they said, well, it's a slam dunk. no, the answer is, no, congress cannot do this. paul: that's what a justice barrett wrote, dan. why do you think -- and i've been pointing to chief justice roberts and brett kavanaugh, justice kavanaugh in particular, why do you think they ducked this question? >> i think justice kavanaugh, i suppose the answer would be with that they're trying to show some deference to congress and and congress' intent. and i know that there's lack of clarity on that. but justice, chief justice roberts especially, the course, paul, is under such political pressure right now, and this case was a close call. and i think maybe they were taking an opportunity the here to show some deference to a congress which is democrats were constantly attacking them. i'd hate to suggest they're making a decision like this purely for political reasons, but i think on a close call like this one leaving the questionsal hisia's racing, maybe another case that was where they went. paul: kim, so we leave this case with four justices sayings it is unconstitutional to tax unrazed gains, five -- unrealized gains, one justice said, oh, you can tax pretty much anything you want -- [laughter] and then four others who said, who were quiet on the question. so what do you think's going to happen? are democrats going to take this open door and run through it? >> you'd think that the s