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MSNBCW The June 20, 2024



1902. no voter ever saw his name on a ballot. he was elected to the senate the old-fashioned way, in a way the founders thought senators should be elected. a state legislature chose and voted for reed smoot to go to the united states senate to represent the state of utah. in his 30 year career as a senator, reed smoot rose to the most powerful chairmanship in the senate, chairman of the senate finance committee with jurisdiction over the federal government ways of raising revenue, bringing money into the treasury. taxation and tariffs. with the stock market crashing in 1929 and the country and during the great depression, reed smoot had the worst idea any chairman of the senate finance committee ever had. it was an idea that would end his career in the senate. the house ways and means committee had the same jurisdiction in the house that the finance committee has in the senate. taxation and tariffs. the chairman of the house ways and means committee loved reed smoot's very bad idea. that idea also ended chairman holly's career in the house of representatives. in 1930, with the country sinking deeper into an economic depression, the chairman put the tariff act of 1930 through their committees and then they both got it passed in the house of representatives and in the senate and by the time it reached the president's desk for signature it had come to be known as the smoot-hawley tariff act. it raised tariffs astronomically, higher than ever before on thousands of goods. it was exactly what donald trump is now proposing as a presidential candidate. economics was a much less complex field of scholarship. in 1930 than it is today. the analytical tools available to economists were far fewer and very unsophisticated compared to today, but even then the smoot-hawley tariffs were something economists could agree on. over 1000 economists signed a petition to president herbert hoover, republican president herbert hoover, asking him to veto the smoot-hawley tariffs. america's most famous industrialist at the time, henry ford, knew it would be a disaster for business and a disaster for the economy. he went to the white house to try to convince republican president herbert hoover to veto the tariff bill written by republican senator reed smoot and congressman willis holly and passed with overwhelming republican support in the house and senate. henry ford called the tariffs, quote, and economic stupidity. j.p. morgan's chief executive said, quote, i almost went down on my knees to beg herbert hoover to veto the asinine smoot-hawley tariff. herbert hoover, a successful businessman in his own right, thought he knew better. and he signed the smoot-hawley tariffs into law and in the next election herbert hoover lost his reelection campaign for the presidency to the governor of new york, franklin delano roosevelt. in the same election in 1932 when voters were living with the disaster of reed smoot's bright idea and willis hawley's support of that idea, senator smoot and congressman hawley lost their reelection campaigns. there is universal agreement among economists that smoot- hawley tariffs made the great depression even worse. those tariffs did not protect american jobs. they killed american jobs. and it meant that the portrait of willis hawley hanging in the offices of the house ways and means committee along with the portraits of the other chairman of the committee and the portrait of reed smoot hanging in the offices of the finance committee along with the portraits of all of the other chairman of that committee, it means that those portraits hang forever in disgrace and infamy. smoot and hawley hurt america more than any other chairman of the senate finance committee and house ways and means committee and history. they destroyed lives. people lost their homes, lost their jobs, lost their hope, because of what senator smoot and congressman hawley did when they did not have any idea what they were doing. just like donald trump. and so when you hear economists now saying donald trump's idea about tariffs is even worse than smoot-hawley, you have to know something to really understand just how bad donald trump's idea is. henry ford would have to reach for a new extreme to describe it because henry ford's phrase, and economic stupidity, would feel inadequate. last week donald trump said he wants to eliminate the tax code. eliminate the personal income tax and corporate income tax and replace the income tax with nothing but tariffs. donald trump wants to eliminate the income tax, replace the revenue to the government with nothing but tariffs. the biggest tariffs in american history. cnbc reports donald trump on thursday brought up the idea of imposing an all tariff policy that would ultimately enable the u.s. to get rid of the income tax. sources in a private meeting with the republican presidential candidate told cnbc. every trump supporter who attends trumps rallies believes donald trump's big lie when he says this. >> nobody ever took money out of china. i took hundreds of billions of dollars out in the form of tariffs and taxes. >> nope, he did not take a penny from china, not one penny. it is reasonable to assume that most trump voters believe that china pays the tariffs imposed by donald trump, because donald trump says china pays the tariffs, but in high school they should have learned and maybe before high school for a lot of students, they should have learned that tariffs are paid by the people in the country that imposes the tariffs. that is how tariffs work. you don't have to take advanced placement american history in high school to learn about tariffs, including the smoot- hawley tariffs. donald trump knows that china does not pay the tariffs that he imposed. he knows that american consumers pay those tariffs. they function as sales taxes on american consumers. and donald trump is consciously lying when he says that his audience about china paying the tariffs and because american consumers pay the tariffs, in effect as sales taxes, and increase in tariffs means an increase in prices through, in effect, sales tax, which is the very definition of inflation. that increase in prices that donald trump's tariffs would bring about. donald trump is proposing the single most inflationary idea of our lifetimes and that is just one aspect of the pain donald trump would inflict with this idea, which harvard economist lawrence summers, the first to raise concerns about possible inflation during the covid-19 pandemic, says is the worst economic policy proposal in u.s. history. in u.s. history. larry summers knows economic u.s. history and that means donald trump's idea is worse than smoot-hawley, much worse. >> replacing the income tax with the revenue with tariff would be the worst macroeconomic policy proposal in u.s. history. it of course burdens the middle class and the poor who purchased goods that exist on international markets, so it is regressive as many economic commentators have suggested, but that is actually the least of it. think of it this way. the smoot-hawley tariffs, which did enormous damage, some people would say made the depression great, were 6/10 of 1% of gdp. if you replaced half of income tax revenues, not all like he talked about. if you replaced half of income tax revenues with tariffs, those would be six times the smoot- hawley levels. that's got the potential to do enormous damage to the competitiveness of every u.s. exporter. to do huge damage to all kinds of workers who use imported goods and what their businesses produce. to create a downward spiral as much higher prices for everything we import. it means consumers have less to spend on everything else. create worldwide economic warfare as the rest of the world responds. this is a prescription for the mother of all stagflation. >> stagflation is a not so easily achieved economic condition of stagnant economic growth combined with high inflation and high unemployment at the same time. we have not seen stagflation in this country in the 21st century, but donald trump is now running to make stagflation great again. leading off our discussion tonight is robert reitz, who served as secretary of labor under bill clinton. he is a professor of policy at uc berkeley and cofounder of inequality media. thank you very much for joining us tonight. i know that you have much to say about trump economic policies, but i wanted to do a quick back of the envelope sketch here because i know for some people out there they are hearing, what? get rid of the income tax? i would be better off. okay, let's say you're making $100,000, and the 22% income tax bracket. you will have sales tax through tariffs in effect that could approach 20% or above. you could have interest rates on home mortgages that go way into the double digits and all sorts of other ways in which you are economically much worse off under the sales tax tariff regime then you would be under an income tax regime and by the way when you lose your job because of all of this, your tax bracket actually goes to zero. >> lawrence, you know, we have come to have such low expectations in terms of coherence and rationality of donald trump that these kinds of proposals can very easily get under the radar. people say well, he is just mouthing off again. the fact of the matter is, this is serious. he doesn't put forward many serious proposals. this one seems to be serious because he does say it in a way that makes you think, well, the income tax, getting rid of the income tax might be a pretty good idea. until you actually think about the consequences. in order to have enough revenue from tariffs to match what you would lose by getting rid of the income tax, you would have to have a tariff that is at least in the range of 138 to 140%. this is way beyond smoot- hawley. this takes us to another planet, because with that kind of tariff, it is like the largest sales tax you could conceive of. that would bring the economy to not only stagflation, but probably much worse. >> that $30,000 car you have your ion becomes a $60,000 car and there is nothing about having your income tax reduced that makes that more affordable for you. professor, there is more. even before he got to this utter madness of let's finance the government through tariffs, there is so much more about what he has been saying about economic policy that you have been taking a part in your way. take us through some of that. >> while he talked about exerting control over the federal reserve board, which would basically eliminate the credibility of the fed in terms of setting interest rates. he talked about rounding up 11 million or 15 million people who are in the united states, who are undocumented, which would have drastic effects on our labor market. not in a positive way, because we need those people. if you look at what they do and how much revenue they actually bring in. he is talking about reducing taxes on the highest income earners and we are talking about all sorts of taxes and what is the effect there? remember in his term of office as president, he told us he would cut the taxes on the rich and big corporations and we would all, all of us, get a $4000 bonus as it trickled down to everyone else. well, did you get a bonus? did anybody you know get a bonus? we can go on and on. this is the most ridiculous, to call it a plan dignified is it. >> then there are the other elements which aren't economic elements, for example just getting rid of obama care. that is an incredible economic hit. nevermind the health conditions that can be affected by it, but the actual economic life of people who defend -- depend on obamacare and cannot afford health insurance without it. >> the interesting thing, lawrence, we are having a substantive discussion right now. we're talking about real people, real policies, real laws, real economics and donald trump does not live in this realm. he throws things out there and he says yes i'm going to get rid of the affordable care act. yes i'm going to give the oil and gas industry free reign to do what they want to do as long as, by the way, they give me $1 billion for my campaign. i'm going to basically wreck the economy with the smoot- hawley, the most egregious form of smoot-hawley on steroids you can imagine and people are not putting this together and they are not seeing the disaster for what this actually is. yes, all of the things he said about democracy, about our democracy, are bad enough, but taking a wrecking ball to our economy and really imposing extraordinary costs and hardship on so many working- class, middle-class, and poor people. well, it is hard to find the words, quite frankly. >> henry ford's word for it was an economic stupidity. professor robert reich, thank you very much for starting our discussions tonight. coming up, you might notice this program is concentrating as much on senate elections as the presidential election. we will be joined later in this hour by someone who knows more about the u.s. senate than i ever will. ira shapiro has worked in the senate and written about the senate for 50 years and will explain the importance once again of the senate, no matter who is president. and next we will be joined by the democratic senate candidate in texas running against republican senator ted cruz. congressman colin allred joins us next. ♪♪ i have type 2 diabetes, but i manage it well. ♪♪ ♪♪ jardiance! -it's a little pill with a ♪♪ ♪♪ big story to tell. ♪♪ ♪♪ i take once-daily jardiance ♪♪ ♪♪ at each day's staaart. ♪♪ ♪♪ as time went on it was easy to seeee, ♪♪ ♪♪ i'm lowering my a1c! ♪♪ jardiance works twenty-four seven in your body to flush out some sugar. and for adults with type 2 diabetes and known heart disease, jardiance can lower the risk of cardiovascular death, too. serious side effects may include ketoacidosis that may be fatal, dehydration that can lead to sudden worsening of kidney 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