>> tonight, the biden-trump rematch now less than two days away. why trump is not trash talking the first debate even though he agreed to all the rules. then, and alarming new warning about trump's plans for the economy and what they would mean for your money. plus, my talk with senator joe manchin. why he left the democratic party and how he will be voting come november as the 11th hour gets underway on this tuesday night. good evening. once again, i am stephanie ruhle line from aspen, colorado and we are now 133 days away from the election, and less than 48 hours away from the first presidential debate between president joe biden and former president trump. we have been watching us trump has been talking about this debate for months and we think you need to know what he has been saying throughout these months, so let's start with the last few days were he seems to have some big problems with what will happen in this first debate. watch. >> number one it was cnn fake news right? who hates trump. [ inaudible ] who really hates trump and data bash and then they said think of this. it's like death. there is two us and two of them. it's like death. >> i think fake dapper would really help himself but you will see immediately if it is or not. i will probably be dana bashes the other i will probably be negotiating with three people but it's okay. i've done that before. i will be debating three people instead of one instead of one half of a person. >> trump has said repeatedly that the debates that are proposed to him was an offer he could not accept like complaining about not having an audience but here's the thing you need to know. he did accept that offer and if you look at things trump has said in the past, he should be feeling right about his chances on thursday night. in april, his campaign was calling for more debates with biden, and for them to start earlier in the campaign. he is getting that. in may, trump told himself -- himself told hugh hewitt that he would be going to take anyone as a debate moderator because it didn't make a difference then there was this challenge to six weeks ago. >> come on, joe, let's do it. anywhere, anytime, anyplace. >> okay, so just a month ago, donald trump wanted to debate joe biden quote anywhere, anytime, anyplace with anyone as a moderator but here we are 48 hours out and he is insisting he got stuck with the deal he just could not accept, that he did it anyway and talking as much trash as he can about the moderators down the format as we get closer to the big night. let's find out white. -- why. let's get smarter with the help of my leadoff panel and bring in peter baker, chief correspondent for the new york time and former deputy assistant attorney general harriet -- harry lippmann. donald trump likes to portray himself as this great businessman yet, now he is claiming he took a deal that he could not accept, but he did accept it and tonight he actually told the washington examiner, i could not have said no. yes, he absolutely could have. what do you make of this? from the cheap seats here, he sounds nervous. >> he is managing expectations and this is an 11th hour attempt . all campaigns do this. what is different here is that usually it is some official that peter and i are out with for drinks on background talking anonymously. the difference here is that donald trump is doing his own debate expectation management and like a lot of things with donald trump, that is unique, but it is really hard to erase four years of trash talk or downplayed expectations were basically saying that joe biden is so incompetent with four days of saying no, he is a masterful orator and these parameters are unfair. for more than four years, donald trump has been waiting the predicate for this debate and i don't suspect he will have a lot of success trying to change voters' perceptions about what qualifies as a success. >> peter, that is the that point i want to get to. all of a sudden out of nowhere after video after video saying that joe biden can't walk straight, he's feeble, now he's talking like president biden is this master debater. is it sleepy joe his favorite tag name for the president? what in the world is going on? >> yeah, you know, look, obviously he recognizes that the way he has set things up in previous weeks made it so easy for joe biden that all biden had to do was go to the debate and not dribble on his tie and he would be seen as a winner because he is not, in fact, the doddering, senile old man trump has been trying so suddenly has to recalibrate. it's not particularly subtle or much of a mystery here. he is just trying to set expectations and reset the bar so it doesn't look too terrible when biden stands up to him and doesn't look like he is the old man the republican videos have been trying to portray. that does not mean biden will have it easy. it's obviously a challenge for president biden and he will have to go up against the guy who was bombastic and loud and aggressive in a way that biden does not like to be himself, but i think the expectation setting game is not going to change the factors here. everybody knows what's going on. >> sources tell nbc news that president biden's team is preparing him to get under trump's skin if trump starts the night more restrained than usual. what do you think about that strategy? paladins going to rattle his cage? >> item is always going to be more aggressive. he saw this in the run-up to the state of the union were biden likes to take a shot at trump. you listen to him closely and there is a great benefit and listening to presidents closely on what they say to their donors at fundraisers. he calls trumps names at that time and that really gets to the core of what biden thinks about donald trump, which is not a whole lot. he's called him a loser. he's got even further, so yeah, biden wants to take a shot in the big picture here certainly within the context of the biden campaign is they want him to be portrayed as a fighter and someone who is not afraid of trump. that has the ancillary benefit of going after trump but also shows the american people he's ready to fight for them and that is the clear strategy heading into this. >> peter, hillary clinton, the only person on planet earth who has debated both trump and biden wrote an op-ed for your paper about what we should be watching for thursday night. what stuck out to you? >> yeah, she is remembering, of course, what it was like to debate donald trump, who engages in bullying tactics and throws out a blizzard of claims and falsehoods in conspiracy theories and even you know, as she puts it in the op-ed, stopped her, at one point, on stage. her point is in terms of advice to president biden, is not to let trump do that to him, not to let trump dominate the stage but also not to let it fluster him, that in fact trump is trying to get him the president that is off his game. the president has been trying to get under trump's skin for the last few weeks in a way that has been unusual and may be effective. you mentioned the sleepy joe nickname trump is given the president. lately president biden has been calling him sleepy down because he seemed to fall asleep at his trial in new york for hush money payments, so i think you'll see a pretty vigorous debate by both the president. he has in fact at times looked his age in public but on these big nights, the big events like the state of the union, he has brought a lot of vigor and energy to it and that is probably what we should expect on thursday night. >> explain this one to me because cnn is saying that the moderators will not fact check the candidates during the debate. they are saying it's not the right arena for it. are you aware of that? we interview people all the time. we moderate discussions. when someone gives us a line of bs we call them out for it. why would that happen in a presidential debate? >> yeah, i mean, define fact check. i have a feeling if donald trump comes out as you know, the soviet union doesn't dominate eastern europe or says something that is clearly false i know jake and dino well enough that their muscle memory will kick in and they will instantly want to correct him. will there be a 14 point refutation of the history of the soviet union and eastern europe? no, or there will be and that is what they feel will be sort of required but if either candidate says something that is obviously untrue, i expect journalistic instinct to take over and i have enough respect for both of those anchors, both of those journalists that they will -- it's kind of what we like to do, right? if someone we are interviewing in real-time so something that is obviously untrue, it's an opportunity to ask a follow-up or to press, so you know, it's really what is the definition of fact check and it is a loophole that any producer could walk through, any correspondent, any philadelphia lawyer could figure out that's my toss to harry, right? this is a legal loophole anyone could go through. what is a fact check? >> we have a new topic for harry, because there are some developments in trumps legal cases today. today, judge merchan was in trumps gag order as he is awaiting sentencing next month. can you break down what this means? >> yes, the important point is not that he loosened it, but that he kept part of it, so what he says is the trial is over. i can't protect witnesses anymore. go ahead and have your beef with michael cohen, stormy daniels and the jurors. i wish i could protect them but they've been discharged but it is still my job to protect the integrity of the proceedings. you still can't go after court personnel, people working on it. it's limited by what is now in front of him but you can think, or trump actually asked to scrap the whole thing and it really matters between now and sentencing and certainly after sentencing basically for years to come now, he is under the jurisdiction of the court. he's a defendant, a convict, not a normal, free person and still, judge merchan can tell him what to do it pain of putting him in jail if he doesn't obey. >> all right, harry. if that was not messy enough, today trump's camp is claiming that jack smith's team mishandled evidence at mar-a- lago. smith filed new evidence showing the complete mess they found at mar-a-lago. boxes filled with golf shirts ground next to sensitive documents that the president never should've taken out of the white house that he has his personal effects jammed in there with. what do you think of that? >> messy closet but very clean law. what they have said is there has never been the case, and there has never been a case, that has upheld trumps claim. what trump would have to show is that they destroyed evidence and did it on purpose. what happened here is they encountered the mess you just showed us and they kept, box by box, integrity. trumps beef is you bury the order. i mean look how much you put those back in the box without the order, but the bigger point is, so what? you know what was in the box before. you know what is in it now. nothing is been destroyed and certainly there is no bad faith, so it's a very far- fetched claim that would take most judges, 99% of judges would just dismiss it on the papers. of course, we have the canon factor here. we will see what she does with it but there is really nothing to this at all, and the claim is, and it is accurate, each box, box by box integrity and we don't have to somehow make sure that the same order of these messy pages that we found at mar-a-lago remain in some fashion. >> i don't want to let you go before i ask you one more thing about canon because today she seemed less likely to buy trumps claim that evidence should be tossed out. you have an l.a. times column where you say she is taking a huge gamble with how she handled this documents case. can you explain why? she seems to be betting on one thing, being donald trump's home grow. >> there you go. that is the gamble, but peter's colleagues, charlie savage and alan fuhrer had a real good report last week that showed two judges including the chief judge asked her to not keep the case. that is remarkable a, that she did it. b, that she rebuffed them and i think it really illuminates quite a bit how she has been conducting herself. very few, i would say zero new judges, would want to rebuffed a chief judge in the way she did and i think it does make it clear she is heading on another board that would be dj t exactly as you say. >> harry, hans, peter, thank you so much. peter, i did see your son today and he's having a good time. when we come back, the economist have entered the chat. the stark warning about how a second trump presidency could hurt your wallet. i'm talking about the people who actually understand how the economy works. later, house republicans have faced competitive primaries for weeks and tonight, one democrat just lost his seat. the latest from tonight's primaries, the 11th hour getting underway on a tuesday night in aspen, colorado. rway night in aspen, colorado. dracula, let's fight back against discomfort. with new poligrip power max hold & comfort. it has superior hold plus keeps us comfy all day with it's pressure absording layer. time for a bite! if your mouth could talk it would ask for... poligrip. dave's company just scored the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. high five! high five... -i'm on a call. it's 5 years of reliable, gig speed internet... five years of advanced security... five years of a great rate that won't change. yep, dave's feeling it. yes. but it's only for a limited time. five years? -five years. introducing the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering 5 years of savings. powering possibilities. truth telling. turn up the volume for this. tonight, a new warning about the stakes this november. 16 nobel prize-winning economist say that if former president donald j. trump wins quote, his plans will reignite inflation and cause lasting harm to the global economy. jeffrey sonnenfeld of yale who works with thousands of business leaders everyday pointed out that the business community has not embraced trump. in fact, no fortune 100 ceo has donated to trump this year. wall street financier steve ratner is a contributing writer to the new york times but you know him as the morning joe economic analyst and andrew is working an extra long day, the leader of cnbc's swap box. let's start with these economies. they say trumps policies could cause an inflation bomb. >> yeah, there are a lot of risks here. trump is talking about extending his tax cuts which means massive deficits. his talking about tariffs which add enormously to inflation. tariffs are paid for not by the government, not by china, but by the consumer. hopefully this will be getting people starting to pay attention. >> andrew, you interview business leaders everyday who like to understandably complain about inflation. they don't necessarily say that president biden is business friendly but when you have 16 nobel prize winners saying trumps policies will be a disaster, how are the business trump enthusiast going to respond to this? >> the trump enthusiast i think actually just look away is what the trumpet busiest do but i think those that are a little bit more with the program look at this and say this is not a good thing. the hardest part about this is that to the extent that ceos are trying to figure out what is happening here, they can look at these numbers and say the inflation piece just on its face would be terrible but they're also saying to themselves, what is going to happen to taxes and that is a very tangible thing. whatever it is, is going to be a tangible number. >> joe biden is going to raise the taxes up to 38 percent. >> i'm not arguing that. just in terms of understanding the psychology of the ceo today or this billionaire class will talk about and whether they're going to vote for biden or trump, the most important piece is actually something very different, which is that they hate uncertainty. is this hates uncertainty more than anything else and there's going to be uncertainty over taxes and regulations and all these things but the true uncertainty -- they've lived through this movie before of real uncertainty, the polarization of what happened inside their companies, in the country, on the flex channels, email i think that in a very differently permeates the brain and why we don't always discuss. >> uncertainty over the rule of law. >> yes, uncertainty over the rule of law. i think many ceos, not all, but a lot fall into this category. we now have this wonderful phrase, double haters. they don't like either of them particularly so they are waiting trump and they don't like the democracy stuff. they don't like the january 6 stuff. they get it. they understand trump is a truly bad guy. they get that but on the other hand, the economy did reasonably well, to them, anyway. then they look at the president who they view as a person of integrity but older. they worry about the vice president, quite frankly, and they worry about regulatory overreach. they all have their grievances. the crypto crowd has a grievance against the s.e.c. and it goes on and on like that so that is what they are waiting at the moment. >> let's talk about these different business groups. this group the sort of sprung up , the silicon valley, elon musk, some people in the hedge fund community who are all of a sudden. trump. is that not a power story, that they realize trump is a transactional president and they just bought themselves access to potentially [ inaudible ] >> i think the access piece is important but i think elon musk has the sort of what he calls the woke mind virus idea as the challenge. i'm not buying into that. >> of course president biden and his support of electric vehicles has been good for his company. >> yes, so this is very interesting. i've always thought this was one of the great challenges for president biden, which is that president biden did not kiss the elon musk ring early on because he was kissing the union ring early on and as a result, ilan took personal offense to this. this is when they were inviting all of the other business. they were inviting all of the ev automakers except for tesla and telling the country that these are the automakers of the future. that then i think actually created this strange rift read all of these are very personal. you might even say petty issues, but i think they became -- almost metastasized in interesting ways and that is why we are seeing some of this crowd go that way. >> i think that. i also think they believe, rightly or wrongly, that trump will not do all the crazy stuff he is talking about doing. >> why do they think that? >> they just think it. >> they forget january 6 happened? >> well, let's separate the economic from the democratic stuff. they are two somewhat separate issues but on the economic stuff, they think trump will have -- there will be enough grown-ups in the room that if they support him now and get that access they can talk some sense into him but look, fundamentally, you are right. the democracy thing should be disqualifying. end of discussion. it should be. >> one of the things i just want to say we are here on tv talking about this. you are not going to see a lot of ceos talking about their support for biden. i think that's an important thing to think about. i think that right now ceos who think they support biden either -- i don't want to say they've been bullied per se but have been bullied into silence. they're saying a, it's possible trump wins and if he does, we don't want to be seen as being on the other side of him and i think that in terms of the amendment, which is going to play out in the public over the next several months, you're going to see stories of ceos or businesses supporting biden or trump. i don't think you will s