and some democrats are concerned that this is a, happening too late, and b, that it's possible the white house is agreeing to a deal stall essentially jam democrats into agreeing to something that does not go far enough on the issues that they care about, an they'll ultimately be in a position of either voting to agree with their president and raise the debt ceiling or risk default and untenable position in their view. >> untenable in their view. let's dig into the detail. what do we know about the framework that's being discussed and especially the parts that democrats don't like? >> reporter: well, based on our reporting today, this broad outline which again has in the been agreed to would include roughly $3 trillion deal that would have about $1 trillion in spending cuts, some of which would kick in immediately, some would be spread out over time. and then there would be a tax component and an entitlement component that would happen after the debt ceiling is raised. but other democrats -- and i should point out that democrats that we're talking to who are upset are frustrated and concerned that this tax component might not have teeth, might not go far enough for them. but other democrats say, whoa, wait. no details have been agreed to. how could anybody be angry when we don't have a deal and no one knows specifics? so it's a lot of jell-o that hasn't been hardened and a lot of people getting emotional about the mushy jell-o. >> people are getting emotional. amazing number of e-mails today from labor groups and -- saying don't touch the medicare. as we watch if the jell-o takes further shape, where do we go from here? >> reporter: more meetings, more discussions. i have not gotten word of anything yet happening tomorrow but i wouldn't be surprised. we are told that there is still the option of a medium deal, although that i haven't heard truly discussed in any serious way. there is still also this alternate fall back plan, the break your glass plan as gloerch yeah borch er's been calling it. it is also moving forward if this deal plan should fall apart. but they're going on two fronts at once. >> expanding on jessica's reporting, let's take a closer look at some of the republican hard lines. in a moment you'll hear from a house republican who says this is no time to compromise. there's strong evidence from numerous experts, many of them conservative economists, that his position has serious consequences. consequences that many hard liners simply don't want to acknowledge, or they just prefer to gloss over. presidential candidate michele bachmann has already made a pair of campaign ads promising not to raise the debt ceiling period. she also downplays white house warnings about blowing through that august 2nd deadline. >> this is a misnomer that i believe that president and the treasury secretary have been trying to pass off on the american people. and it's this. that if congress fails to raise the debt ceiling by $2.5 p trillion that somehow the united states will go into default and we will lose the full faith and credit of the united states. that is simply not true. >> congress woman louis gom exrt of texas also minimizing the risk. >> there is money you. go day-to-day. you look at the assets that are available. there is money to pay those things. i can't help but be a little cynical here. because we find out the president has a big birthday bash scheduled for august 3rd, celebrities flying in from all over. and lo and behold, august 2nd is the deadline for getting something done so that he can have this massive -- maybe the biggest fundraising dinner in history for a birthday celebration". >> and here's iowa congressman steve king. >> it's not default. they've been calling it default to try to stampede people into taking a bad deal here in this congress. the american people understand this. they understand at least intuitively that it would be the president who would willfully default if there's to be a default. i'd like to think the investor markets understand that, too. >> keeping them honest, there's little reason to think that's true. and plenty of people in the gop establishment and the business community sending up warning flairs. officials at the bond rating company standard & poors today briefing freshman republicans about what might happen. political reporting tonight they were cautioned that one possibility is "a death spiral in the bond market". s & p is already on record warning it may downgrade u.s. debt. so is moody's. even if the country only approaches august 2nd without a deal. moody's chief economist is a former advisor to john mccain's presidential campaign. he warns that even brooefl failing to raise the debt ceiling would be disastrous. here's what he told me recently. >> by the end of july i think the markets will be pal pably unsettled. by august 2nd turmoil in the financial markets. >> he says a recession would follow. opponents say you can simply prioritize spending after august 2nd limiting it to the bare essentials. doing that would mean cutting federal spending by about 40% that. means a lot less money flowing into the economy. now follow the dominos that. potentially could trigger a recession which lowers tax revenue coming into washington and drives up spending on things like unemployment checks. then as the fed chairman ben bernanke warned congress recently, you have to start dipping into those bare essentials. >> so just as a matter of arithmetic, fairly soon after that date there would have to be significant cuts in social security, medicare, military pay or some combination of those in order to avoid borrowing more money. >> that's ben bernanke. remember initially a republican appointee. here's a portion of the letter sent to congress and the white house. just one page of text, 19 pages of signatories from major corporations and the u.s. chamber of commerce. the money "the debt ceiling does offer a needed catalyst for serious negotiations on budget discipline. but avoiding even a technical default is essential. this is a risk our country must not take". a new cnn polling tonight reflects that concern and also the obstacles to reaching a deal. a strong majority of democrats and independents say there would be a major crisis or major problems if the debt ceiling is not raised. 72 and 60% respectively. but republicans are split. 50/50. the polling also shows the democrats and independents by even bigger majorities, 83 and 65% prefer a deal with spending cuts and tax increases. while only 37% of republicans want such a mix. which is why some of the lawmakers you just heard are holding so firm against any compromise that includes revenues or some of them against even raising the debt ceiling at all. believe it or not, the country's been here before. even those president back then was a staunch conservative and a tea party hero today, listen to how he handled it. >> this bringmanship threatens the holders of government bonds and those who rely on social security and veteran benefits. interest rates would skyrocket. instability would occur in financial markets, and the federal deficit would soar. the united states has a special responsibility to itself and the world to meet its obligations. it means we have a well-earned reputation for reliability and credibility, two things that set us apart from much of the world". >> ronald reagan, nearly 24 years ago. facing debt ceiling hard liners back then in both parties. i spoke earlier tonight with one of the current hard liners, the georgia republican congressman tom grace. >> congressman, you told bloomberg news earlier this month, this is "no time to compromise". blaming compromise for what you consider the fiscal mess washington's in right now. but the other view of that is that compromise is exactly what's necessary. the republicans control just one piece here. republicans have the house, democrats have the senate and the presidency. what gives house republicans the right to say, no, we won't compromise? >> well, john, you're right about my statement before. that is this is no time to compromise. we've had years and years and years of compromises. that's led to $14 trillion in debt. and if we're going to get out of this mess we've got to hold firm to what we know are the true solutions. the house passed a very bold proposal. probably the most incredible proposal to empower the taxpayers this week. now it's in the senate. and as your polls have shown, that is 66% of america, a supermajority of america believes this is the right way to go, which means they don't want to compromise anymore, either. >> well, we have a new poll out today where two-thirds of americans say you should raise the debt creel wlg a plan that has a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. let's focus on your plan, the cut, cap and balance plan. leader reid said it doesn't have a chance in a million of passing the senate. they'll take the vote on friday. the president said he would veto that legislation. so the question facing washington and the question facing the house republican majority is where do we go from here? if you can't get your way would you prefer the government default? >> first of all, to the leader of the senate and to the president, they apparently underestimate the zeal and the spirit of the freshman class and the message from the american people last november. it should still be ringing loud and clear in their ears as to what the american people said last year, and that is we've got to tackle the tough decisions today. we can't keep punting it down the road and kicking it off to the next generation. that's why the house put together a great plan to really embody what the american people were saying last november. >> but the question is, if you can't get that plan, you call it bold, whether or not the american people support you the reality in washington is you can't get it passed, so the question is what next? and there are some conservatives who say, why can't republicans learn to say yes? meaning if the president gives you a proposal that would cut $3 trillion from the deficit over the next 10 years, that would give you cuts in medicare, reforms in social security, start to shrink the growth of government but in exchange wanted some tax revenues from republicans, you would say no to that? >> the president has had plenty of time to put a proposal out there. this is way too late in the ball game for that. we have what, 10, 12 days before the deadline that they have set themselves. napkin sketches and frame works and plans and press kchss, that's not going to save our nation from $14 trillion in debt. there is only plan that's been proposed that's been passed through the house of representatives that sits in the senate right now awaiting passage as well. the senate just needs to act. they need to do what the american people expect them to do. that is let's balance the budget once and for all. >> congressman, your plan will not become the law of the land. it cannot. the president said he would veto it. it does not have the votes in the senate. the question you face you were sent here to do that. i understan that. you respect your promises in the last election. if you can't get anything would you take something, otherwise you might end up with nothing. if the president won't sign your plan and you won't agree to his plan you get nothing. >> i'll remind you the president in 2006 said he did not support raising the debt limit because that was a lack of leadership. the president also said during a recession is no time to raise taxes. but he's reversed his position twice there. i think he has an opportunity, maybe he'll reverse his position once more once the senate puts this on his desk. i challenge the president, challenge the senate, pass it. put it on his desk and let's see the president stare the american people in the eye and deny them a fiscally responsible plan that cuts spending, caps the federal government and balances the budget. i mean, the american people deserve that opportunity. that's what the house has presented him with. >> standard and pops sent up some folks today to tell the house freshman if you default there'll be catastrophic effects on the economy. the chamber of commerce warning today default is not an option. when you hear that, when you feel that pressure, does it matter to you at all? >> well, i think they're talking to the wrong individuals. we've already passed the proposal that solves the problem that you're addressing. >> assuming my mathis right and they don't have the votes in the united states senate, the question would become then what and whether you're willing to compromise on your principles and on your campaign promises. again i respect those campaign promises. if we get to august 2nd would you prefer if a deal requires compromise, prefer no deal and see what happens? >> well, it's all about cutting the deficit now, capping the federal government and balancing the budget. that is the only thing that's going to save us from the $14 trillion in debt. there is no other plan that has been presented at all that would even come near to that. so i don't know why we want to compromise the next generation, compromise america's future. >> when the secretary of the treasury, when the leaders of the chambers of commerce, when the president of the united states said there would be economic catastrophe, do you believe there would be if we got it that point, august 2nd and did not have an agreement? >> you know, that's still yet to be seen how the markets will react. again we can't make long term decisions based on short term reactions in the markets. we know clearly right now that there's a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace about a lot of things washington's done. we need to restore that certainty. and the only plan that does that is the cut, cap, balance plan. that's why it's been endorsed by so many groups, why there's been hundreds of thousand of americans who have signed the pledge for that and why 66% of americans according to your very own poll support that plan as well. >> well, our polling tonight shows something a little bit different. shows that most people want a plan that includes some revenue increases. two-thirds of americans want that. but i want to focus on the point. because america's never been at this point. and so when you have secretary geithner saying it would be a catastrophe, interest rates for everybody would go up, unemployment might go up. the chamber of commerce which disagrees with the obama white house on just about everything says it has about the same view. what do you think would happen on august 3rd if the government open had so much money it would have to decide, yes, probably social security checks would go out, probably interest on the debt would be paid, but then the government would face some pretty horrible choices, wouldn't it? >> well, the president and the secretary, going to go into a cash flow management situation. they will have to make decisions on how they're going to allocate the resources. because as you pointed out, there'll be still a tremendous amount of tax revenue received by the federal go. . almost $200 billion a month comes in. there's plenty of resources there to take care of social security and medicare and the v.a. benefits and a lot of the federal government. but the president's going to have to make those decisions. but the great thing is is he doesn't have to wait until then. he doesn't have to wait until august 3rd because there's a plan that will prevent that from happening that sits in the senate right now. unfortunately harry reid is trying to kill it as opposed to promote it. right now we need solutions and not just those who are trying to kill things. let's promote this legislation. may move it to the desk of the president and get past the tough time. >> congressman graves, appreciate your time tonight. >> thank you, john. >> let us know what you think. you're on facebook on follow me on twitter @ john king cnn. our political panel weighs in on this. the story of a conman turned good guy turned conman again. now isha sesay the brutality we've seen already in syria has been horrifying. but there's new word tonight that it could just be the beginning. new reports tonight of a growing crackdown on ordinary people. regime stepping up attacks on its own citizens. that and much more when 360 continues. pain relieving crea. it blocks pain signals fast for relief precisely where you need it most. precise. only from the makers of tylenol. precise. got the mirrors all adjusted? you can see everything ok? just stay off the freeways, all right? i don't want you going out on those yet. and leave your phone in your purse, i don't want you texting. >> daddy... ok! ok, here you go. be careful. >> thanks dad. >> and call me--but not while you're driving. we knew this day was coming. that's why we bought a subaru. but there's new word tonight breaking news tonight on the budget talks. congressional democrats wrapping up a meeting with the president tonight. jessica yell ling president obama trying to win them on a deal. she says some democrats are expressing doubts not wanting to face the dilemma of choosing between entitlement cuts and a government default. as you saw earlier, a tight group of house republicans are resisting any kind of compromise with this president. i spoke about the talks earlier with the former george w. bush press secretary ari fleischer. these days you can follow him at twitter.com/ari fleischer. also -- >> gloria borger, one reason we know there might be some progress, everybody is nervous. the democrats are nervous the president might be selling them out on social security and medicare. republicans are nervous, speaker talking about tax increases with the president of the united states. what are your sources telling you specifically about where they are? they're telling me the same thing. everybody is nervous and there is no deal until there's a deal. and a good sign, john, is that the president is now meeting with democrats separately. because it's very clear that he has to kind of tell them, this is what's really on the table. and he has to get their input. and then the republicans are meeting with members of their own caucuses. and that's also a good sign. so it's very clear they're running things by their own constituents in congress. but having said that, i think the big obstacles are still the big obstacles. the question is, will you raise taxes, right? >> will you raise taxes. let's go to the republican on that one. ari fleischer, you know how this works from your days on the hill and at the white house. the house proposal will die in the senate tomorrow. then the real negotiations begin. how much of a leash does the republican speaker have negotiating a deal with the president of the united states that could include the ex piration, allowing the bush tax cuts to expire at least for those at the top end, the wealthy? >> john, i think the only way that tax cuts for the upper income tier expires is if barack obama is willing to put on the table the individual mandate. that's a pretty loud and clear message that he's been getting from republicans in these negotiations. clearly there is something in the air, and it's big in washington tonight. the new element is something called a trigger. there's been a lot of talk now involving the president and republican leaders in the white house about creating some type of mandatory incentive so that if they don't get the structural reforms done it triggers some type of terrible financial price, a calamity if you will, that puts the back of the congress against the wall so they have to deliver on entitlement reform and tax reform. what's driving that is the tea party came to washington. made structural changes in washington. so they really are still trying to figure out how to have a