china have hit a brick wall. why and who will take their place as the next hot emerging markets? then andrew sullivan on why he had to wait almost 20 years to get a green card in the united states. it's a fascinating, troubling story. we're also going to look at the war on drugs in mexico. could it actually be working? first, here's my take. a new poll in the united states shows that americans are still deeply frustrated at the slow pace of the economic recovery. that's understandable. unemployment stays stubbornly high. i was just in europe, and they think america is booming. consider this. the u.s. economy is on track to grow between 2% and 3% this year. in europe, by contrast, half the euro zone economies are going to actually shrink this year and not one major european country will grow over 1%. last thursday christine lagard, the head of the international monetary fund and former french finance minister, said there were dark clouds hanging over the global recovery and that the euro zone was at the epicenter of potential risks. borrowing costs for countries like spain, italy, and greece are rising again. what is going on? didn't it look like the europeans had managed to avert a crisis only a few weeks ago? yes, it did. mario, europe's new central banker, had adopted a version of ben bernanke's policies and injected money into the european financial system and economy. his efforts are now being undercut by the germans which reflects germany's obsession about inflation even at the cost of growth. the larger failure shared across europe has been too much austerity. consider the data we started with. the u.s. economy which received monetary and fiscal stimulus will grow at well over 2% this year. european economies that have followed the path of cutting spending, raising taxes to reduce deficits are finding themselves in a downward spiral, cutting spending means laying off people, which means less demand for goods and services, which means the economy shrinks, which ironically, means lower tax revenues and, thus, larger budget deficits. take a look at britain. britain has followed a brave austerity plan cutting government spending across the board and raising taxes. the result? british growth has stalled. the economy will grow barely 0.8% this year. while its budget deficit was predicted to be under $13 billion in february, it was, in fact, $24 billion for that month alone. after its austerity program, spain has hit 20% unemployment. 50% youth unemployment, and now has a much larger budget deficit thap than projected. europe needs structural reforms that will cut spending over the long-term by raising retirement ages and cutting benefits. it also needs pro-growth reforms that open up its labor markets. most importantly, for now it needs to stop in a depressed economy and learn something from the example across the atlantic. 2.5% growth may not look so great in america, but it is a lot better than negative 0.3%, which is the current estimate for the euro zone's economic growth. let's get started. >> we will start with a world tour. joining me now, the former director of policy planning at the state department and now back teaching at princeton. eduard luce washington columnist for "the financial times" and the author of an excellent new book "time to start thinking." brett stevens, the foreign affairs columnist for the "wall street journal" and emmanuel san martin, the new york correspondent for france 24. emmanuel, tell us, it appears that he continues to gain strength, and i was in europe last week. from all indications, he is likely to be at the very least a very strong challenger of perhaps even defeat president sarkozy. he proposes a 75% tax on all income over a million euros. he is outflanked on the left. he is proposing 100% tax on all income over 500,000 euros. what is going on? >> you have to remember, it's a two-round election. what we're talking about here is the first round, so it's like a primary here on the left side. you have -- in a way you have to be on the left to make sure that you are going to be in the second round. you know? every side is -- has to gather. that's what's going on right now. that's what's going on right now. he himself said that 75% is -- it's not going to change anything. we have the real election two weeks later on second round. then people from the center are going to decide this election. you are going to see i guess a shift from this. maybe radical position. >> what's remarkable is how reckless it is both right and left. you have countries like italy, spain, porteral radically restructuring, downsizing the size of their state, imposing austerity budgets because they realize they can't go on as before. in france you have oland with promising 60,000 new jobs for teachers, and then sarkozy promising another sort of form of hand-outs. france seems to be at least judging by the rhetoric coming out of this election living in a different age as if there's still at an age of plenty and prosperity where the welfare state can continue to grow and the continent isn't in the middle of this seismic, economic and generational crisis. >> this is, of course, the economist cover of france. europe's most frivolous election. >> the age of denial. >> what is going on? >> the candidate that to me symbolizes a guy called chaminade. >> that shows how well -- who wants to caulinize mars. he's the french newt gingrich. and i think he kind of symbolizes that the age of denial of this election, but, you know, in two week's time, it's going to become very -- a very real election, and there's going to be two very real choices. i do agree with brett, though, that neither of the platforms put forward by sarkozy or elan are remotely useful to the situation they find themselves in. it has 90% debt of the proportion of gdp. it's made no efforts to reign in its budget over the duration of this crisis. it's lost its triple-a credit rating. it might not be the next spain. spain is the next spain. but it's not that far off. france has lost that sort of franco-german geomotor control of europe over the last few years. >> if elan wins, does it -- will it make left wing politicians in europe say this is the way to win elections? be a left wing populist. promise taxes on the rich. there's a sense in which people have been trying to figure out which way is the wind blowing in the western world? idealogically and elan's win could can be a big moment if he wins. >> i'm not sure there's one template for left politicians across europe at this point. i can't imagine a german politician winning on that platform on the left, and the british have their own configurations. i'm not certain that that's going to be true across europe. the main thing if oland wins, it's going to make u.s. foreign policy a lot harder. all right? sarkozy has been hugely important on iran. he was on libya. on syria. he has really stood very, very firm, indeed, as hard as the president obama, and if he is replaced by someone who is going to look inward, who is not going to be willing to really get out there and take a hard line on countries like iran, the u.s. is going to have a hard aer time. >> i'm not sure about that. there is remarkable policy in france. left, right, it's pretty much always some kind of foreign policy, and the president of the french senate who is a socialist a few weeks ago here and in washington the president precisely says that. nothing is going to change. >> i have to ask about syria. this is another decision point that france, the united states and others will have to take. is anything going to happen? >> something is going to happen, but not fast. i think the annan plan is not working. the administration is moving towards recognizing that publicly. the secretary of defense testified last week that planning is ongoing. secretary clinton is moving toward other measures. it's going to be slow, and it's going to be slow because we're still not ready -- the u.s. is still not going to take unilateral action, so that takes you with the u.s., turkey still, the arab league, it's this game of after you. you know? we're not going to move unless the turks and the arabs are with us. they need us to support. everybody wants the u.n. security council to authorize this. i think we're going to see action, but i don't think it's going to be fast. >> should we go faster? >> of course, we should because we run the risk that assad will roll up the opposition before we have a chance to decide whether intervention is worthwhile. you have 10,000 syrians dead. there's an assumption that the syrians are always going to come out in the street to oppose the regime. at a certain point you kill enough people in the street, they become afraid to come out. >> i have the opposite question. can this insurgency really succeed? are there -- they haven't been able to hold any territory. >> the libya example gives us hope that if nato or an outside power intervenes even in a limited way they can coral strength because they obviously enjoy massive public support and they enjoy a safe haven in turk any, but that rears american leadership, and i think it requires it soon, and i nabbed the reluctance of the pentagon to get itself involved in another middle eastern war, but that has to be balanced against the stakes involved here. i mean, if assad stays in power, we should consider what hap aens to american interests in the middle east if assad stays. not least of them, this touches on our negotiations with iran because we have said repeatedly that the fall of the assad regime, and this is right, would be a major strategic setback to the iranians. where do we stand vis-a-vis iran in the nuclear negotiations if in six months time assad is still comfortably in power, the opposition is in disarray or exile. >> when we come back, we are going to talk about the indian missile test, about china, whatever else comes up when we come back. 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>> i think we're already in the asian arms race. i mean, india could have chosen to conduct this missile test at any stage in the last two, three years. the timing of this is quite interesting, though, given the fact that, you know, china does have a more assertive role in the last two years, but china is also in a transition phase, and i think you have a weak government in india, and this is one way of showing that it's still got strength and can flex its missiles, and, of course, the agony is the god of fire. it can reach shanghai. for the first time india is in a parody. therefore, in nuclear terms with china. i suspect we're going to be seeing a lot more of this. i do suspect this has always been the case with an indian test, whether it's a nuclear or missile test. we're going to see some pakistan version sometime in the very near future. >> what i find interesting about the test isn't so much what it says about india, it's what it says about china, and really i think the failure of chinese foreign policy over the past decades. i mean, now just in the last year you've had burma turn very sharply away from its chinese patron towards the west. the vietnamese next week will be conducting naval exercises with the united states. japan, south korea, taiwan. the entire rim of australia where we're going to be deploying marines, the entire asian rim has decided that their fate isn't -- their future isn't married to an -- it's containing the rise of a very aggressive and somewhat scary state. >> these countries hold -- well, most of these countries hold regular naval exercises and war games with india as well. india's relations with those around china's rim. >> they certainly do well with the united states. they all want the insurance policy of the u.s. navy. >> i don't disagree with you about china's -- the failure of china's policy, but i don't think this is was exactly a brilliant move for india's foreign policy. india does this right when we're in the midst of once again having talks with the iranians where we've got a real problem with north korea and north korea just launched a rocket that failed. just at this moment india really needs to test a -- >> i think india is not britain. that's the thing, and it keeps wanting to demonstrate that. that they -- that it's not going to be a global lieutenant of the united states. there is no treaty there. i understand your frustration. time is not helpful from an american point of view. >> your point that we're clearly -- we're winking at the indian nuclear program while -- >> or just that it makes it so much harder to talk to the iranians or north koreans when they're pointing to another country that is, in fact, a nuclear power that, of course, didn't sign a nuclear treaty, but that, nevertheless, is saying we can do it, just as it's got other countries around that are going to say we too are on the global stage. >> a moment of clarity. i don't think anyone is going to go to sleep tonight lying awake thinking, oh, my goodness, the indians now have a new missile that can reach china. why? because india is basically a responsible and a very democratic power. that's the real issue. we talk about our problems with iran and north korea as essentially legal problems that are potentially in breach of npt. our problems with these regimes they're awful regime with barbarous intentions. it might clear up some thinking about proliferation if we say we don't really mind when india acquires this kind of capability. what we fear is an iran or a north korea doing it. >> brett, why exactly was this wonderful responsible power not willing to impose sanctions on iran when everybody else is actually giving iran a major out? i mean, if they're so great and they're so noble and the iranians -- >> well. >> they don't like to be britain, but they do like to be france. >> i rest my case. >> it's here from the -- >> you can make a case that actually this was not aimed at china as much as the united states in terms of the funeral. trying to say that they are power. when you look and following the u.n. here in new york, among other things, and when you look at what india is doing in the security council -- they've been in the security council for one year, and they align themselves with china, not with the u.s. the ambassador of india, the ambassador on the security council on syria is actually the most -- the defendant of -- >> is the most pro-syrian ambassador among the -- even -- even the russian ambassador is not sometimes. so, yes, there are maybe, you know -- they're not going to use their nuclear bomb against the u.s. but they're not aligning themselves with the u.s. >> it's totally a measure of how much the u.s. wants india's friendship that it now backs india's permanent membership of the u.n. security council even though it has a voting record against the u.s. resolutions, bar none, i think. i may be wrong. it's probably cuba. a few others. india is probably -- >> all good things don't go together. you have a wonderful democracy of this foreign policy. >> it's on the, the values of the state are basically with american ones, and we can live with our differences, our diplomatic ones. >> are we willing to say that, in fact, france's independence is a great thing? >> yes. france is a marvelous thing. i wish our separate prosperity. >> on that note of franco-american friendship, brett stevens, and emmanuel st. martin, and -- thank you all very much. up next, what in the world? despite 50,000 drug-related killings in six years, mexico is winning its wars on the cartels. i'll explain. or ei-ther. or e-conomical. 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