tea party demanding more cuts in federal spending, a cap on future budgets, and a balanced budget amendment. but at a republican caucus meeting speaker of the house john boehner told everyone in his party, and i quote, "get your ass in line." and listen to senator john mccain. >> what is really amazing about this is that some members are believing that we can pass a balanced budget amendment to the constitution in this body with its present reputation, and that is foolish. that is worse than foolish. that is not fair. that is not fair to the american people. to hold out and say we won't agree to raising the debt limit until we pass a balanced budget amendment to the constitution. it's unfair. it's bizarro. and maybe some people who have only been in this body for six or seven months or so really believe that. others know better. >> the ground is still shaking in d.c. over this tonight, with no doubt many late-night phone calls going under way right now. we'll cover all of the angles, and here are some of the other stories we will dig into as well. the end of al qaeda? some say bin laden's death has the terrorists on the ropes. but other security experts have their doubts. remember the last time we heard "mission accomplished"? and ronald reagan called it the 11th commandment. republicans shall not attack other republicans. that commandment was shattered today. can john boehner pick up the pieces? then, in a new poll his numbers are higher than congress. he gets good marks for job creation. but for disaster relief not so much. no, it's not the president. even mr. obama answers to this higher authority. now let's get back to our top story. on capitol hill tonight speaker john boehner has just rewritten his plan to raise the debt ceiling. he had to after the congressional budget office said his numbers did not add up. now the question is can he sell it to his own party? cnn congressional correspondent kate bolduan is on capitol hill tonight, and kate, the speaker clearly took the whip to his party today. i guess my biggest question to start the night off is are members responding? >> reporter: well, it seems that -- it seems that they're doing better than yesterday, i think is the best way to say it in terms of trying to get them in shape and get them in line and get them to vote for his proposal. you mentioned this meeting this morning. the house speaker in there acore cording to sources told them very bluntly to get your you know whats in line, and this he's speaking to the conservatives who first at least were opposing his bill because they wanted deeper cuts, but as they were leaving this meeting, i was outside, tom, and i heard more and more members say really kind of it's better than nothing and we can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. so they look like they're in better position than they were yesterday in terms of passing this through the house. but of course we don't count the votes until the votes are counted. but adding to that confidence this evening for this vote tomorrow, tom, is this new congressional budget office, these new cost estimates coming out. this is welcomed news for house speaker john boehner because it now meets the test that he set out for himself, that the amount of cuts would be higher than the amount they would be raising the debt ceiling. now they say it meets that test, although it's still short of his original target, but i think they're going to take this evening. >> there are 87 of these republican freshmen, kate. he obviously has to peel off a good number of them to make this thing work. you said there's a sort of nibbling around the edges of people talking about it. do you have any idea yet how many would be ready to move into his camp? >> reporter: it's hard to say. but even if you do the rudimentary math yourself, his margin of error is thin. there are 240, if i remember correctly, house republicans, and democrats are trying to get unanimous opposition to this bill, and he needs 217 votes to pass this bill because of some vacancies. so he really can't lose more than i think it's 23. so his margin of error is very small if he's going to pass this with only republican votes. >> so he's got to get about 3 out of 4 of the freshmen who are currently drawing the line here, he has to get into his camp. what about the democratic side on this? harry reid's plan was also out there. the cbo also said his numbers don't quite add up either. but where does that plan stand tonight when you look at it compared to the house plan, the senate plan? >> reporter: it's really funny because the senate plan's been out there just as long as really john boehner's plan but nobody's really focusing on it at the moment and the reason being really because the senate itself seems to -- definitely there is a sense that they are waiting to act until they see what happens to john boehner's plan in the house in what they decide to do going forward. the honest truths is that neither plan at the moment looks like it can pass the opposing chamber. so in the end they're going down these paths, they're going through the motions, even though they're very serious about these measures but in the end it's going to have to come down to some kind of compromise, tom, that they clearly have not found yet. >> and the it's going to come down to counting those votes you say they can't really count yet but they're trying. kate bolduan, thank you so much for joining us. if we don't get a deal out of washington before the big bad debt ceiling deadline, one of the guys you can blame or thank, depending on how you see it, is congressman joe walsh, a republican from illinois. he's one of those freshmen who rode the tea party wave into washington last fall. we mentioned them a moment ago. he spoke out against a compromise at a tea party rally in washington earlier today. listen. >> i'm a freshman. maybe i'm naive. but i don't think unless we force -- unless we force republicans and democrats to balance their books every year, they won't. the only way we can do that is to force them. the only way we can force them is to put a balanced budget amendment in the constitution. we have to do that. we can't yield. >> and congressman walsh joins me now live from capitol hill. congressman, welcome back to the show here. listen, you know what i'm hearing more than anything around d.c., people are saying about you and some of the other people who are really holding the hard line here, don't these guys know how to take a win? because the feeling is that you've forced enormous concessions. what will be enough? >> let me first start out, tom, and go after senator john mccain in your lead. it's bizarro and insulting for a guy like john mccain, who's been here for so long, it's politicians like him that have gotten us to this point where we have a government we can't afford. i mean, shame on him for saying that, for going after those of us who were elected six months ago to change the way guys like him have operated in this town forever. look, my leadership, john boehner and eric cantor, are doing a fantastic job. and the new numbers that they put out now in the boehner plan do look much better. all i'm saying is i think we've got a moment in time here where we can do better. the crisis is so severe, so severe. and we've got a president and a democratic party and i think too many folks over in the senate who just don't understand how severe this crisis is. >> define for me, if you would, what better is at this point because you talked about the numbers a minute ago. you've also talked a lot about the idea of a balanced budget amendment. i'm telling you, mr. representative, having looked at it as closely as i can, i don't see how you get approval of that measure right now. so if you can't pass that, what can you settle for? >> well, when we look at numbers, tom, i mean, we've got a $14 trillion debt now. we're going to add another 12 to 13 over the course of the next ten years. even the ryan budget that us -- that we republicans passed is going to add to that debt. a trillion dollars over ten years is not a big number. it's great progress. and again, i give my leadership a lot of credit. we have changed the debate. all i'm saying is i think the administration -- everybody's been scaring us on this august 2nd thing. i want to make sure that we can get as good of a solution for the american people as we can and push hard for a balanced budget amendment. i know, tom, that people in this town will say it's impossible. but there are republicans, strong majorities of republicans who support it, and there are democrats who have been on the record supporting the balanced budget. >> i know you've challenged the august 2nd deadline in saying that's not the real deadline. but you've also acknowledged to me on this show that there is a point at which you think we'll get into trouble. are you not afraid at all about what would happen if we end up going into default? >> tom, we're all afraid. and nobody up here wants default. it hasn't been helpful for this administration to hold the word "default" over our head for three or four months. we're not going to hit default on august 3rd. tom, we know we've got 170-some billion dollars in revenues coming in in the month of august -- >> yes, but you've also acknowledged to me here that whether or not we hit it on august 2nd it's not off in some distant five-year, ten-year mark, it's sometime -- >> absolutely. >> -- in the near future. again, let me get back to the question here. tell me now if you can, and tell your leadership and the democratic leadership, what will it take -- what does it take for me to put you in a car tonight? what's your deal that you say hit this, hit this, and you'll be on board? >> tom, i think these troublesome conservatives in the house, many of whom were sent here in january to change this town, we want to try -- it's a spending problem. we want to try -- >> i understand. tell me what that means. i mean, i understand that. and i accept that. and you're right. you wouldn't have been elected if not a lot of americans agreed with you. many do agree with you. what's the deal you want to take back to them and say we agreed to this and to this and that's okay? >> i want a profound deal that will change this town so we never get to this point again. and that's huge spending cuts, and most importantly, that's some sort of spending reform that changes the way this town spends money. and again, the best one we've got out there right now is a balanced budget amendment. many of us want to keep pushing for this as hard as we could. look, the boehner plan with the new numbers looks pretty interesting. and we're going to give it a hard look. we just want to fight for as much as we can because i think that's why people sent us here. >> i understand that. the other question i keep thinking about. you know in negotiations like this you can go too far, and i think that's one of the concerns, even among people who support your cause. it's like i'm offering a house for $500,000 and you say you'll give me $100. if you get me down to $100,000, you've won, but you're still not going to get it for 100. >> i know, tom. and i think we're getting close. and the factor here that's clouding a lot of this again is this sense of panic. i think your profession has helped create this. i know the administration has helped create this. and so it's got this town all worked up. whether it's august 2nd, 3rd, or 8th i think that what america needs is the best and biggest reform package we can put together. the boehner plan is a great start down that road. we just need to figure out if it's enough. >> two other quick questions here. one, when a plan like this comes along and it changes, you know tham of the people who are standing with you are also being leaned on by other republicans who are saying you've got a good deal, it's time to start moving. what is your sense of the core of those of you who are standing here, are you all standing together? do you feel like some are peeling off now or are ready to peel off? you sound to me like you are actually even ready yourself maybe, maybe in the next couple days to say okay, it's enough, i'll make a deal. >> well, i think we're going to vote on something tomorrow. and i would tell you, i think leadership has done a great job. they made a very persuasive case to many of my colleagues that this is as good as we can get right now and it's pretty darn good. i'm not there yet. and a number of members aren't. but leadership, i think, is picking them off one at a time. they're doing a great job of trying to persuade members. >> do you have -- if john boehner called you tonight and said okay, i heard you, i watched you on "in the arena," i heard what you had to say, what can i give you now -- maybe it's not everything, but what tonight do you want? what if you can get a balanced budget amendment vote but it doesn't succeed? does that serve any purpose to you? is that important? >> that would be a big step. and if it didn't succeed, tom, a huge valiant one to two to three to four-month effort at building a movement behind a balanced budget amendment. you know, part two of the boehner plan is there will be another tranche of potential debt ceiling raise down the road -- >> so let me make sure i understand. if you could get the vote, if democrats and republicans say we will have a vote on a balanced budget amendment, even if it failed, you would say this is a victory of a sort and we can move forward? >> it's movement in the right direction. is it enough, tom, for a guy like me right now? no. i need passage out of both houses. i know that's a tall lift. but i really want my leadership to keep pushing for that. and let's see how this plays out. >> all right. well, i understand -- i fully understand your position, the sense that as you said this is a once in 100-year opportunity for people like you to push the way you are. and we'll see how it plays out. congressman, thanks so much for being here. congressman joe walsh. and i'm sure we'll check in with you as it goes on here. >> thank you. when we come back, is al qaeda finished? the secretary of defense says we're close to declaring victory over these terrorists. but i'll talk to security experts who say al qaeda is stronger than ever and may have some big plans. that in just a moment. 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[ female announcer ] one a day women's. as we approach the tenth anniversary of 9/11, is al qaeda almost wiped out? that is the surprising question raised in an article in today's "washington post." defense secretary leon panetta is quoted as saying, "we're within reach of strategically defeated al qaeda." joining me now from washington, two experts who can tell us whether to believe this and why it's even being claimed. michael scheuer is a former cia counterterrorism analyst who headed the bin laden unit. and chad sweet worked both in the cia and homeland security. welcome. let me start with you, michael, if i can. should we have any faith in this claim that we're close to defeating al qaeda? >> i think we should have zero faith in it, sir. it's one of those things that when i was in college the jesuits taught me to never lie about anything. but if you lied about something, don't lie about something people can check. and if you simply pay attention to the open source material and look at the expansion of al qaeda since 2001, they now have operational platforms in half a dozen places -- >> let me interrupt you while you're saying that, and we're going to bring up a map because i want you to explain this but i want people to be able to look at it at the same time you're saying that. in 2001 tell me where they were and then tell me where they are now. >> in terms of large operational bases at 9/11, they had afghanistan. to plan, to recruit, to store material, to train, to strategize in safety. today they still have part of afghanistan. they have a big swath of pakistan. they're in yemen. they're in somalia. they're all the way across north africa in a growing movement that's now reaching down into the western part of africa. and so just objectively you really don't need an opinion. you just need to look at the facts, sir. al qaeda is much bigger and much more geographically dispersed than it was at 9/11. >> chad, would you agree with that? and what kind of operations are we talking about in places like algeria and eenggypt compared t what they had in afghanistan when they had the harboring government of the taliban? >> i couldn't agree more with michael. and i'd actually go a step further to say not only is he right that they have now expanded geographically and have multiple launch points for operations but if we step back and look at that map you'll see it lays over very nicely with what we're witnessing with the arab spring. we're also witnessing a dysfunctional nato operation both in afghanistan as well as in libya that leads to openings for al qaeda there. as michael points out, they in each one of those countries are seeing instability that can be exploited. and let's step back and look at what we learned from the bin laden treasure trove, which is essentially that al qaeda was much more centrally controlled than many in the intelligence community thought and i thought and many in the chertoff group. but what it shows is the old guard, what we'll call central a.q., al qaeda, was basically trying to force the young guard to follow their past performance, which is to do these long, multiyear planning attacks for very iconic operations with catastrophic proportion. now the younger guard doesn't believe in that. they're much more in tune -- anwar al awlaki to do lower-level attacks. and i think what we'll see is more of a leaderless jihad, which is now ironically more unleashed by the death of bin laden. so it is an issue of jeefrk distributi geographic distribution as well as the fact they're willing now to conduct much more lower level attacks on softer targets. >> michael, one of the things i remember even from the earliest days after 9/11 was the sense that intelligence analysts were saying it is a mistake to think of al qaeda as an organization, it is both an organization and an idea and a free-flowing movement, and so even if you knock off the leaders of this group here, here, here, and here there are still a lot of them out there. >> well, i think that's exactly right. and i think great credit should go to the central intelligence agency and the special forces for amassing a very impressive body count of al qaeda leaders. but that's all we really have, is a body count. we don't have a measure of progress against them. and you know, to go back just for a couple years, the real turning point in this problem was the invasion of iraq. it transformed the group and the man, bin laden and al qaeda, into just exactly what you said, tom, into a philosophy and a movement. and now we see that everywhere, including in north america, in europe and canada an