results. 50% for scott walker. he's on the left of your screen. 50% for tom barrett, the democrat, the mayor of milwaukee. he's on the right. scott walker is the incumbent republican governor. this is a race to recall him, to remove him from office. based on the exit polls that we've been conducting throughout the day. right now the exit polls show it's 50% for walker, 50% for barrett. doesn't get much closer than this. obviously we are in no prediction to make a projection of the winner in this race. also by the way for the lieutenant governor race, the lieutenant governor rebecca clayfish. she is also being -- there's a recall election for her. and mitchell, the democratic challenger. 50/50 in that race as well. based on the polls we're getting. john king is at the magic wall. john, it's suggested we're going to be working a long night tonight if it's as close as the exit polls suggest. >> let's take a deeper look at more exit poll questions. let's look deeper see if we can learn anything about the electorate in wisconsin tonight. number one, you have city voters, urban voters, and rural voters. let's see how they're voting tonight. you see a big win for the democrat there. 2/3 in urban areas for the democrats. it tends to match up with the 50/50. scott walker needs to match that in rural areas. that's about 1/3 of the vote. let's see in the rural areas. he is, indeed. but not a margin. this could be important to us. do rural voters in national elections, they tend to be trending republican. the republicans winning here. the question is will that margin be enough? let's go over the look again. there was a big question here about turnout. younger voters are important to the democrats. i talked to someone on the ground earlier who voiced concern. we'll look at that. the republicans have to be happy with this number. older voters have been trending republican in recent years. we'll see how they voted tonight. that percentage of the electorate is higher than 2010 when scott walker was elected. what about income groups? this has been a vote about jobs and economy. 25% of the electorate, those who make between $50,000 and $75,000 a year. why do we have a 50/50 race? because we have a split in the state of wisconsin. let's look at one more here. these are the big issues. this is stunning to me. how did this start? restricting collective bargaining rights asking employees to pay more for their pensions. how did they feel on election day? look at that. 37% strongly approve of limiting those rights. 38% strongly disapprove. let's take a breakdown on how they voted. walker not surprising there getting 95% of the votes for those who strongly approve of what he did. let's check the other side here and see if mayor barrett has equal numbers. there you go. 97% there. you see the polarized electorate around the issue. 50/50 in the horse race numbers. we see the breakdown. we see that people are tired by the partisanship. they're disgusted by both parties. we're going to count the votes. we have key counties to look at. we're going to be at this awhile. >> indeed. stand by, john. i don't want you to go too far away. once again, the exit polls showing a 50/50 race right now out of the exit polls. all the polls in wisconsin are now closed. the stakes certainly extraordinarily high in this election with republicans and democrats alike. they're watching wisconsin for signs of what's to come in november. no one knows that better than the chairman of the republican national committee. also a native of wisconsin. thanks very much for joining us. i know a lot of republicans were expecting a win for walker. you may still win, but it looks incredibly close right now. first of all, what are you hearing from your republican sources in wisconsin? >> well, everyone we're talking to and our field staff and walker's team, we feel good about where we're at right now. we've had to work hard in this state for everything we've had. it's a big turnout operation -- >> when you say you feel as good as you've ever felt, 50/50. all the other polls showed a lead sometimes three points, sometimes five points for walker. are you surprised that the exit polls now, the exit polls we've been gathering throughout the day show a 50/50 tie at least as of now? >> i'm not surprised it's going to be close, wolf. i'm not surprised exit polls show it close. it's going to be a close race. where the polls come from, how it's sampled, and where it goes. i think it makes a big difference. ultimately ipg people in the state of wisconsin are going to reward people of their word that keep their promises. that's scott walker and rebecca clayfish. i expect that to be the result tonight. >> the results from tonight, let's say it's very close. what if anything would that say to you about wisconsin coming up in november because the democrats in presidential contests have carried wisconsin for a long time. >> well, you know what? it's true. it's a state that could go red under the right circumstances. but i think we've consistently shown over the last couple years in tough battles, republicans can win here. we've got a great ground operation. i think we're better than the democrats on the ground. and we have to be. in order to win in wisconsin. i always -- i kind of think this narrative about their ground effort and our air effort is a false narrative. we have to have a better ground game to win in wisconsin. that's why we have won here over the last few years. i expect that to hold true tonight. we're going to see hopefully very soon scott walker on the stage behind me in victory. >> as you know, scott walker raised a lot more money than tom barrett, the democratic challenger. maybe six, seven, eight, ten times. yet see how close it is. how do you explain that? >> i think the unions are spending a whole lot of money you don't see yet. there are undisclosed unions. i don't think anyone doubts the fact that we wouldn't be standing here tonight if it wasn't for big public employee unions that paid for walkers to get this. we're here because of big unions. people around the country care about the future of this state because what happens tonight could have an impact on whether we win wisconsin or not in november. i think that's what you're seeing around the country. >> hold on to that a minute. i want to go to john king. he's got the exit polls on the presidential contest with these voters in wisconsin. we're telling our polls ters what are they suggests ahead to november? >> even though they're split on the governor, the recollection you will have to say you can ask the chairman about this. president obama has a significant edge in wisconsin. 54% said they plan to vote for president obama. 42% say they plan to vote for governor romney. why is that? let's go over here. we asked the voters who would improve the economy? 45% say obama would support the economy. that is the key question. let's dig deeper on the economy. which candidate would better help the middle class. president obama with a 13 point advantage. you have to say the obama campaign despite what happens in the end has to feel pretty happy. >> let's get reince's reaction to that. what do you have to say to that? >> i think you can't poll today what's going to be the case in two months. this president left democrats at the alter in wisconsin when they needed him most. and i tell you what. they're going to have a circular firing squad if walker wins tonight. then president obama is going to come in here in two months and say you remember me? you have to get me elected. and they will look at the president saying thanks a lot we appreciate the help when we needed you most. that's a dynamic measure you can't measure today. you'll be able to measure it in a couple months. >> he's the chairman of the republican party. we'll stand by together with you and maybe we'll talk with you later as well. right now the exit polls showing 50/50 between governor walker and the challenger tom barrett. much more coming up on this. also coming up this hour, highlights of the queen's diamond jubilee. piers is in london with more on that. >> thanks, wolf. i'm here at buckingham palace. saluting the queen's 60 years on the throne. to the street parties going on well into the night. this is the event of a lifetime. i'll have all the must see moments coming up. first back to wolf for the latest news on the wisconsin recall election. >> and it is breaking indeed. thanks very much. much more of the results in just a moment. and our political all stars on how this state of wisconsin, the election there, could be a preview of the romney versus obama battle in november. stay with us. ♪ how are things on the west coast? ♪ ♪ i hear you... ♪ rocky mountain high ♪ rocky, rocky mountain high ♪ ♪ all my exes live in texas ♪ ♪ born on the bayou [ female announcer ] the perfect song for everywhere can be downloaded almost anywhere. ♪ i'm back, back in the new york groove ♪ [ male announcer ] the nation's largest 4g network. covering 2,000 more 4g cities and towns than verizon. rethink possible. looking at live pictures coming in from the capital of wisconsin, madison, wisconsin. the vote is now complete. but the results only beginning to trickle in. take a look at what the actual numbers that we have right now in wisconsin, the exit polls showed 50/50 tie right now. this is about 1% of the vote is in 57% for scott walker. 42% for tom barrett the democratic challenger. hari trivedi not getting much. i want to bring in our political all star panel. dana lash is editor of big journalism.com. tonya acker is joining us. and our newest cnn contributor ryan liz correspondent of "the new yorker" magazine. good to have you on board. ryan, give us your thoughts. it wasn't necessarily supposed to be this close. 50/50 according to the preliminary exit poll numbers. we'll see what the actual official numbers bring in, but it's very, very tight despite the fact that the republicans completely out spent the democrats. >> not to completely drag it into the politics and the president, but if barrett loses this thing by a tiny margin, there's going to be a lot of second guessing from democrats asking why the president didn't go into wisconsin and make a last-minute appeal. >> why didn't he? >> well, look. if obama loses wisconsin in the fall, he's got -- you know, he's lost the race. democrats have won wisconsin in every presidential election since 1984. i think he's not really worried about wisconsin. i think he learned a lesson in the earlier races in his term like in 2009 when he campaigned in a couple of states. new jersey and virginia. and republicans won. and i think they're cautious about where they send the president and how they use his political capital. i think they didn't want to send him in there. and then see walker win. because that would be embarrassing. he did obviously endorse barrett, the democrat. he put that on his twitter feed last night. as you know, wolf. sending out a tweet is about the lowest level of endorsement you can do in politics these days. >> yeah. it's not very impressive. let me bring tonya into this conversation. he was in neighboring minnesota. he was in neighboring illinois. he flew over wisconsin. didn't want to get near wisconsin. and as ryan says, if the republicans wind up eking out a narrow win, there's going to be a lot of second guessing whether the president could have done more to help the mayor of milwaukee become the governor of wisconsin. >> i think it's important, wolf, to remember the uniqueness of the election. this was a recall. this is not an election in the first instance. only two governors in the history of the united states have been recalled. the notion of having a president come in. there'll be a lot of second guessing regardless how it turns out. a recall election, i'm a californian. it's something we like in my state but they don't often work. and there are a lot of voters -- it's interesting how close this is because there are a lot of voters that aren't necessarily supportive of the governor but didn't necessarily think the recall was the appropriate mechanism for getting him out of office. i think there are a lot of different factors at play. it's maybe premature to think this is a national referendum on barack obama. >> i suspect might not necessarily be a national referendum if you look at the lopsided advantage. the polls show the president has over mitt romney. romney didn't make an appearance in wisconsin either. though plenty high profile republican surrogates showed up to back the governor. why didn't mitt romney come into wisconsin? >> i'm not sure. i think it would have been a really good idea for romney to go to wisconsin. and i think it would have been a very good showing. it would have shown a unity. but at the same time, reince priebus who was on with you and i thought it was entertaining how he said the president left democrats at the alter in wisconsin. we didn't have the rnc chairman saying that wisconsin was going to be a dry run for november as the dnc chairman has for weeks. i think democrats made it more important for president obama to show us. i do agree with what's been said. if this turns out to be a small margin of victory, there could be ill feelings there. but i think it would have been interesting for both candidates to be there. >> you know, the one thing, though, wolf. the flip side of that is in a polarized environment, you can send the president into wisconsin and it could have the opposite effect. it could drive turnout on the other side. so that could be the calculation in the obama world as well. >> and dana, what happens if walker loses narrowly to barrett. what would be the impact? walk us through the fallout from a democratic win in wisconsin. >> oh, it's going to be a massive fallout. if there is an absolute victory for democrats and i think it's going to take more than just one win. we're also talking about clayfish and the others in wisconsin. if there is an absolute win for democrats. say they take control of the senate and get the governor's office. that's going to be pretty huge. it'll be somewhat of a puric victory because of everything they spent. but at the same time that will also chill reform. that we'll see in other states. we're hearing of the recall function being used to get bobby jindal out of the office in louisiana. this is going to be replicated in other states as well. it's going to be considered a tactic. i worry about the state of elections. i worry about voter integrity. and i think this is also going to be a test of the grassroots movement. they have been instrumental in fund raising. i took part for rebecca clayfish. that saw $54,000 grassroots folks raised for that in one day. it's been a huge participation. at the same time is it going to deliver results? it's a true test to the tea party. >> let me let tanya weigh in on this. walk us through the fallout from a democratic win and a republican win. give us a sentence or two on both. >> well, you know what's interesting is you talked about the money differential here. we have a stiting governor who got 2/3 of his money from out of state. the fund raising was about 8 to 1. barrett raised about $4 million. even to have it this close, i think you're going to see lots of democratic operatives who will sell this as a victory even if their candidate loses. if he does lose, i think if you see how well barack obama is polling in wisconsin, again, i think it would be a mistake to think even barrett's loss here is going to have too much blow back on the president. i think there are lots of reasons why people might oppose this recall and still support the president and still perhaps take issue with the governor's policies. i think dana made a good point. people want to be treated as such. and there might be some folk who is in this close election might be inclined to support the president and democrats. don't think this is an appropriate use of a recall process. >> hold on for a moment. stand by. we're going to continue this conversation. obviously a very, very close contest in wisconsin right now. the preliminary exit polls showing 50/50 tie in effect for scott walker the republican incumbent governor, tom barrett the mayor of milwaukee. the challenger. much more on this story coming up throughout the night. also coming up, piers morgan is in lon don with all the must se moments of the jubilee celebrations. ♪ ♪ we all need it. to move. to keep warm. to keep us fed. to make clay piggies. but to keep doing these things in the future... at shell, we believe the world needs a broader mix of energies. that's why we're supplying natural gas to generate cleaner electricity... that has around 50% fewer co2 emissions than coal. and it's also why, with our partner in brazil, shell is producing ethanol - a biofuel made from renewable sugarcane. ♪ >>a minute, mom! let's broaden the world's energy mix. let's go. [ male announcer ] for our families... our neighbors... and our communities... america's beverage companies have created a wide range of new choices. developing smaller portion sizes and more low- & no-calorie beverages... adding clear calorie labels so you know exactly what you're choosing... and in schools, replacing full-calorie soft drinks with lower-calorie options. with more choices and fewer calories, america's beverage companies are delivering. good evening. i'm at buckingham palace where the diamond jubilee is winding down. nothing can put a damper on the festivities. not even the weather. we've got all the must see moments. >> here we have the queen getting out of the carriage. 86 years old. let's just watch. >> and the other carriage now arriving as well. this is the last we will see of the queen before she appears on the balcony about an hour or so before the fly pass. senior members of the royal family going inside. duke and duchess of cambridge. prince harry. all in immediate succession. and they will be the ones on balcony with her majesty. that's the last we're going to see of the queen for awhile. probably taking off her shoes for a moment having a cup of tea or whatever while she gets ready for this amazing appearance. here in the square the people are now going to start to move and they're going to try to start to get down the mall as far as they can. >> just watching one of the last bands here at the palace. take a look at this. you don't see this very often and will never see another diamond jubilee again. soak in a bit of the atmosphere. >> just look at the crowds and you can hear the band. you can probably pick up the band over the microphone. you can feel it all around. all these people, thousands and thousands, perhaps a million. surrounding buckingham palace as we're all waiting for the big moment. there's this huge balcony over our shoulders where we will see the queen and her closest members of the royal family. here you go. and we're moments away from that. >> look at that. these crowds. i mean, look at the scene. you just don't see this anywhere in the world. >> we're waiting for the big wave. no kisses today. >> how do you know? >> because her husband isn't here. >> there might be other kissing on the balcony. >> we want to welcome in best selling author. we've got better weather today. we also have india hicks and katie nichol. my question is just who the significance of who we will be seeing in a matter of minutes on the balcony. it's the closest of the royals? >> it is. the duke of edinburgh isn't here. the duchess and duke of cambridge and prince harry. usually at the queen's birthday parade you get to see the whole plethora of the royal family. not this time. the jubilee has been done to the golden jubilee and the silver jubilee. this is a slimmed down appearance by the monarchy. >> why? >> because it's about the line of succession. by