i'm candidate crowley, and you're in "the situation room." just coming in, a new snapshot capturing the big picture, a cnn lorcp poll shows support for president obama up slightly from last month 67 this new poll shows a five-point lead over romney, though still within a sampling error. the same poll shows a seven-point lead for the president over rick santorum. that is up only slightly from january. we want to bring in cnn's chief analyst gloria borger. so i look at this and think maybe a problem for mitt romney? >> absolutely a problem for mitt romney. as you pointed out, in january neck and neck. now president obama is up. what's mitt romney's calling card as he campaigns he electability? what do republican voters say they want in all those dpit polls we've been taking and all those primaries? somebody who can beat president obama. he kind of loses that argument. it's early, this is good news for president obama. we should say it's february, these numbers can change. >> and he can also say i'm the most electable, i suppose. >> absolutely. >> even though we all lose. >> that's right. why has the approval rating gone up? imgts i think there's lots of reasons. right now it's at 50%. disapproval at 48%. first of all, the voters have seen nothing else other than republicans argue with each other over -- since new year's. secondly they believe, according to our poll that the economy is heading in the right direction, at least more of them believe that the economy is heading in the right direction. and there's another thing that is very important to the president's improving fortunes. that is independent voters. take a look at these numbers. we asked of the approval of obama's handling his job, then we broke it out with independent voters. you can see here, in february, 50%, that's up five points in the last month. so it's clear that independent voters are warming up to barack obama again, probably because of what they've been watching. >> i always say politics is really 90% perception. and you see a real divide? >> right. it's along the lines of who do these candidates really care about wloz policies favor the middle class? you see here that ron paul, the anti-big government republican does the best, candidate, followed by rick santorum, who beats barack obama, which is very interesting, because rick santorum is running as a pop you list candidate, anti-elise, a great story to tell, coal miner father, for example, but who fares the worst? you see it right there -- mitt romney. inch are. >> well all nose they number are great, but if you can't -- there was a lot made last year about republicans were more enthusiastic. has that changed? >> there had used to be a huge enthusiasm gap, as we call it. now, if you look at they numbers, you see back in october, not too long ago, there was a 121-point enthusiasm advantage for the republican party. now two points. so again that can change, but so far it looks lie the primaries have not really worn well with republican voters and with independent voters. >> a good time to erase it from voters' minds. >> there is. there's plenty of time. >> thank you so much. gloria borger, our chief political analyst. the new lineup with rick santorum and mitt romney at the front of the race means a new run of ad wars. joe johns is working that part of the stories. joe, some of these ads are pretty amazing. >> that's for sure, candidate, heating up again as the schedule compresses with more contests sort of bunched together in a short space of the calendar, including february 28th, arizona and michigan, and super tuesday, march 6th. the contenders really just need to compete in a whole bunch of places at one time. >> there they go again. comes out of the block with a negative ad whose surge in the polls suggest he's the guy to beat. >> rick santorum, big spender, washington insider. >> the santorum compare returned fire with a humorous ad depicting a guy that looks a lot like romney. >> romney and his super pac, with a staggering -- >> reporter: it's funny all right. even mitt romney laughed about it in an interview. still from a political perspective, what matters is whether the ad works. bret o'donnell is an independent strategist who just finished a stint with the romney campaign. >> i think it's a different strategy to try to rebuff the attacks from the romney folks. you know, telling the truth about issues is what seems to be the most effective. >> it's a complex problem, how to respond to the pro-romney super pac attacks the newt gingrich dug do so well. he has yet to recover. they have up until now achieved near total dominance in the campaign air wars. the latest buy, about eight states, about $1.5 million. >> every state so far romney and restore our future have absolutely dwarfed all the other candidates and the other groups in terms of spending. >> the ad battles partly reflect how hard it is to reach voters in a bunch of states in a time where there have been fewer and fewer debates and fewer opportunities to get unfiltered messages out. >> the debate i think next week will be critical for both candidates, because it will be the first time that senator santorum hag stood in the center of the stage as the front-runner, so the pressure will be on him to occupy that role and to see how that debate goes down between he and governor romney. >> as we approach that debate, the question is how can santorum compete against an organization with a lot of money. he appears to be looking for creative ways to have an impact, though he doesn't really have the resources to match romney. candy? >> joe johns, thanks very much. iran is flaunting its nuclear capabilities. state television shod president ahmadinejad loading what state television said were fuel rods into a nuclear reactor. the stay announced a goal of producing enriched uranium, but some sees a more pressing threat. chris lawrence is here with us. hard to imagine there's a problem more pressing than rage getting nuclear capabilities. >> in this case there is. u.s. military officials are preparing to fijd an asymmetric war. what that means is iran declares a military exercise zone that infins on the shipping lanes or inn gates riots during the pilgrimage in saudi arabia, even raiding desalinization plants that other nations use to get drinking water. it's not as dramatic as iranian subs blasting away at u.s. carriers, but u.s. officials say it's much more likely. they look like suicide speedb t speedboats around small, nimble boats that could be use to raj larger ships. a u.s. navy official says the threat has been overblown, but spilgts how iran has been developing the ability to wage low-level war. >> a lot of people think that iran has to start blowing things up to be effective, but we've seen that's not always the case with the speedboats harassing vessels in the gulf. could be done to shipping lanes. >> the folks that are conducting this time of activity understand what the limits are for u.s. and international vessels, wartime vessels in terms of their engagement profiles. they'll stay out of that engagement profile, but will keep everybody else very attentive to what they are doing. >> retired general james "spider" marks says it could disrupt the shipping lines. >> iran and its support from china, maybe from russia, could drop into the gulf capabilities, trigger mechanisms that we heretofore have not seen. >> reporter: we believe they may have smart mines that could detect the size of a tanker and then go off? >> proximity types of passage, disruption, water type of movement, signals, absolutely. >> reporter: iran did deploy troops from several islands in the shipping lanes. nations like saudi arabia get 60% of their drinking water from desalinization plans in the gulf. that could be prime targets to sabotage. >> you start thinking about a shortage of drinking water or perhaps a few oil spills that contaminate the water and cause a disruption in the food supply. it's one of the reasons, candy why the u.s. is rushing to get this mother ship on the to the area where they can quickly deploy special operations forces, get the mine sweepers out there. those aren't the assets you bring to some big battle like we saw in world war ii in the pacific form it's what you use for the low-level warfare. >> is there muscle flexing going on here on either side? is a lot of this at the precipice of some sort of conflict? oar is this just don't this far and no farther sort of stuff. >> the one thing i keep hearing from sources at the pentagon is the lack of communication, and how when you don't have that line of communication, even very small incidents can quickly mushroom. >> we've seen that happen. thanks so much, chris lawrence. good to see you. right now lawmakers are working on something that impacts the paycheck of every working american. we'll get the latest on efforts to extend the payroll tax cut. the obama campaign finds itself embroiled in a chimichanga controversy. plus american coins nickel ago diming the u.s. government. now there are plans to change our change. oving backward. 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[ female announcer ] discover what's next in your life. get this free travel bag when you join at aarp.org/jointoday. jack cafferty is here with -- and this will surprise you -- "the cafferty file." it's always good to see you, even from afar. >> it's a pleasure to have you with us. thank you. president obama has broken a promise to cut the deficit in half. the latest budget forecasts a $901 billion deficit for 2013. if you add in the trillion dollar plus deficits he's run and the estimated $200 billion in economic stimulus, that's about $5 trillion in red ink during his first term t george w. bush said the previous record, $3.4 trillion in deficits, but it took eight years to do it. president obama is on track to add it in four years. this is part of the reason why our national debt stops $15 trillion. the weekly standard crunched the numbers and found out that deficit spending, just under president obama now equals more than $17,000 per person in this country, about $70,000 for every family of four. in february of 2009, shortly after he took office, president obama pledged to cut the $1.3 trillion deficit he inherited from president bush in half. meanwhile, a quick look at what's happening around the world might provide a glimpse of what our future hold. greece saw more violent riots this week following their government as approval, and the credit rating agency moody's downgraded six european countries, including italy and spain amid concerns over the continent's debt crisis and sluggish economy. here's the question -- where is the united states headed? if president obama is adding an estimated $5 trillion to the national dead in his first term? post a comment on my blog or go to our post on "the situation room's" facebook page. my guess is after the election, taxes will go up big time. >> jack, i love you, but you are always a little depressing. >> it's just my nature. >> i know. thank, jack. we are following developments on capitol hill that directly impact the paychecks of 160 million americans. right now house and senate negotiators are trying to put finishing touches on a deal -- they're also working to extend unemployment benefits and avoid a fee cut for medicare doctors. cnn congressional correspondent kate bolduan joins us live. where are we in the process? >> inching closer. i'm told by some key negotiator 99% there. take a listen right here to one of the key negotiators brokering this deal, democrat ecsenator max baucus. >> we're there. what really counts is to get the job done. we apply the unemployment benefits and payroll tax cut for americans. we're there are. there are just a couple wrinkles that sometime get in the way, but i think they'll be ironed out today. >> reporter: they won't detail what the couple wrinkling are, but we are told that one issue has to do with how they'll cover the cost of some of this. republicans already gave in on covering the costs, dropping their demand, if you will, to cov coversh they dropped their demand on that, but negotiators have agreed that they will still cover the cost of extending unemployment insurance as well as a voiding the cut -- and that seems to be where quite a bit of the focus is. >> clearly they wanted to get beyond this issue, yet i can't help believe that conservatives are not happy about extending that payroll tax cut without paying for it. i know they met with speaker boehner. what are you hearing? >> reporter: you are right, they are not happy. one of them being congressman jason chaff its, and they're not happy about it, and other conservative members say they're not going to be able to support it if the payroll tax cut is going to be extended, it would need to be paid for. so they are not happy about it, but i'm still not seeing the significant blowback from members that we have seen in the past that seem to threaten any passage. congressman la tourette put it to me best last night. he told me he thought there was recognition, in his words this isn't if i were winning, and we need to get this issue behind us, for republicans, it seems to be a victory of sorts. you can be slur, candy, democrats are already privately claiming victory, that they were able to get republicans to cave on this issue as they push forward on a deal. >> when it trouble, change the conversation. >> ah yes. president obama's campaign manager tweets about a chimichanga, and now there are demands for an apology. and federal regulators are moving to restrict a particularly annoy kind of call. and a firecracker going off in a man's mouth? we'll tell you about an electronic cigarette that exploded. >> announcer: with nothing but his computer, an identity thief is able to use your information to open a bank account in order to make your money his money. 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[ male announcer ] tempurpedic. the most highly recommended bed in america. it's the perfect time to save up to $200 on your own ergo. find out more at tempurpedic.com. mary snow has the top stories in "the situation room." >> a fire in central honduras has killed more many victims were sleeping as the blaze fred. others were said to be trapped inside after guards abandoned their post. more than 100 prisoners are still accounted for, but authorities say they don't know how many forced their way out of the prison and fled. they say a short circuit or mattress fire may have sparked the blaze. federal regulators are making it harder for telemarketers to call or text you. new fcc rules will limit robo-calls as well as automated text messages. one officials says it will close loopholes in the existing regulations. information calls such as school closing information and flight cancellations will still be allowed. a florida man has been hospitalized after an electronic cigarette a fire official says it appears to have caused the problem and describes it as similar to a firecracker exploding in the victim's mouth. these types of cigarettes, i guess they're used to help quit smoking. >> that was my question. what the heck is an electronic cigarette in you answered the question. wow. dangerous, apparently. thank you so much. president obama's approval numbers are on the rise, but how come? we'll talk more about it in our strange session. plus chimichangas and latinos, details of the tweet that's causing controversy for the obama reelection team. we had to create it. introducing the 2013 lexus gs, with leading-edge safety technology, like available blind spot monitor... 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