Transcripts For CNNW World Business Today 20110826 : vimarsa

CNNW World Business Today August 26, 2011



the leader of libya's national transitional council called for more financial support for the new government from other nations. japan's about to get another new prime minister. kan announced his resignation. parliament will vote on tuesday to choose the country's next leader. kan was struggling for approval even before the march disaster struck japan. his ratings have gotten worse since. people along theest east coast are getting ready for hurricane irene. six states are in emergency mode. thousands of toof tourists and residences have been evacuated. it's been 11 days since the hunger strike began, but he says he'll keep going until death or until parliament approves his version of tough anti-corruption legislation. those are the top stories from cnn, the world's new leader. i'm zain verjee and world business today starts now. good morning from cnn london. >> and good an from cnn hong kong. i'm andrew stevens. welcome to world business today. >> more qe or no more qe some that's the question at jackson hole. and liquidity on wall street. one look at the potential impact of hurricane irene on downtown manhattan. >> but first, ben bernanke's impending speech at jackson hole is front and center in investors minds this friday. let's take a look at how that's affecting european markets. they've opened on the day of the big conference lower with particularly heavy losses coming from the dax down to the untune of 2%. we've also got the cac 40 being led lower by stocks after a company being down graded by one of the brokeragers. but it seems we're raising some of the optimism that we saw earlier this week. >> seems to be that any big moves by ben bernanke is starting on to be discounted now at that meeting. here in asia, it was pretty much the same sort of story. shares edging higher at the start of trade, but the word to describe what was going on here also very cautious. that's how the day ended. the nikkei up just a fraction, 0.3%. apart from the fact that it doesn't have much of an impact. australia down by about a third of one percent. >> in the u.s., stock markets dropped off sharply on on thursday. investors seemed to hit the breaks after three days worth of gains. take a look at the declines. on thursday, the dow ending the day down to the tune of 1.5%. similar situation for the broader s&p 500 index, but it was the nasdaq that was down nearly 2%. as to definitely feeling the brunt the most. >> and in the pre-market action in the u.s., it looks like stocks may be getting a bit of a reprieve with futures point to go a slightly higher open today.dow as you see this. certainly a lot more on that crucial ben bernanke speech at ja jackson hole, but wall street traders also looking at the closely at the weather. >> that's right. up and down the east coast of the united states, people are currently bracing themselves for hurricane irene. this is the most serious hurricane threat to the country since hurricane katrina six years ago. currently six oil refineries are sitting in what could be the path of the storm. the likelihood of irene actually disrupting smis on the eastern seaboard of the u.s. already sent again and oil prices higher on thursday. now, utility companies are also warning about pretty extensive power outages in the affected regions. they're preparing for strong winds to top he will trees and knock down power lines if the storm does make landfall in those areas. for some indication on the financial damage, experts say that's reason's path is looking very similar to hurricane gloria's, that was category 3 storm that hit the u.s. east coast back in 1985. it cost a total of $900 million. but what i want to show you is that that pales in comparison to the costliest hurricane ever on record, it is of course hurricane katrina standing at $81 billion. it was another category 3 storm that of course devastated parts of the gulf coast back in 2005. and on top of the financial costs, it's the damage hurricane irene may do to the country's financial center that's also causing concern. irene could be the most destructive hurricane to hit new york city since 1938 and the every a eventual all path of the storm sun known. michael bloomberg, the mayor there, reminding new yorkers to be vigilant. >> the national weather service is now predicting that new yorkers will begin to feel the effects of irene in the early hours of sunday morning and based on the latest forecast, it will be a category 1 storm. let me remind you you that this kind of forecast is very imprecise and we're talking about something that a long time away in meteorological terms. so what we have to do is assume the worst, prepare for that and hope for the the best. irene's exact course, strength and time of arrival remain difficult to be predicted with precision because this is a very large and also very slow moving hurricane. >> let's not forget wall street is in lower manhattan. and as chad myers explains, that area could be one of the hardest hit when irene reaches new york. ? t >> the true threat with a land falling hurricane just to the west or right at new york city will be in-undays, will be water going into new york harbor. it's also the tip of manhattan. if you push water up that harbor and then up the two rivers, this is the east river, this is the hudson river, you will get the water to back up and go up. it's called storm surge. the storm surge will be all the way through battery park. it will also be all the way up the west side here of lower manhattan. a little spot right there. that's where the world trade towers used to be. that's a big hole now as they've been digging that out to put other things in that area. a little bit farther to the other side would be new jersey, as well. completely in-undated. flying you right into here, this is all old swamp land, this is all landfill in the first place. they put buildings here because it was very expensive property. and back to the other city, this is hoboken, jersey city, water everywhere here as about an eight foot storm surge would go over the board walk, the concrete walk that's along the water, and get all the way back into the buildings here of southern new jersey. and this is just one of the areas here. this is one of the a marios that's the craziest scenario here of damage to new york city with water rushing in from the south, all the way as the storm pushes water in as a rotating hurricane at 85 miles to 100 miles per hour. i though you've heard of typhoo typhoons cyclones. different oceans call them different things but it's the same. we call them hurricanes. remember, there are subways that could get flooded, too. let's check on the progress of hurricane irene right now. jennifer delgado is at the cnn "weather center." how is it looking? >> right how it looks like it's been weakening over the last several hours. we're waiting for the latest update from the national hurricane center. but you have to to keep in mind, too, new york city, that's the u.s.'s most densely populated city. so a lot of concern there. right now it is pulling away from the bahamas. you can see over on the last several hours, the eye becoming cloud filled, pulling in more drier air as we go through today, it will continue to move up parallel well offshore from florida. and thens as we go through saturday morning, looks like it will start to approach the carolinas. and i also want to point out to you the winds 185 kilometers. we still could see a bit more strengthening out of it. right now category 3. likely making landfall it looks like very close to cape hatteras as we go through saturday afternoon and then it looks like continuing to skirt up the coastline of the u.s. and as we go through sunday, things will deteriorate for parts of the northeast, specifically new york, as well. we do have a hurricane warning still in place for areas in red. you can still see that includes north carolina. tropical storm warning in place for south carolina. and that means conditions are expected within the next 48 hours. you can see 48 hours for the hurricane watch areas up along areas including del mar as well as new york. we're worried about the winds and heavy rainfall, but the storm surge potentially will be very bad. we're talking very rough seas as irene makes its way up the coastline and we're talking for areas, you can see the carolinas, very dangerous winds. this is going to cause power outages. the same for the northeast. if about it continues to hug along this track, that is going to be bad for new york. if it moves over towards the east a bit more, certainly that will be an improvement for new york city and we're hoping, again, new york city really dodge this is one. last but not least, we have a extra typhoon and the winds right now 241 kilometers. if you put this in the atlantic with the winds right now, this would be a category 4 and you can see the effects working in through parts of the philippines. there is that's really impressive there and since this time yesterday, it's really intensified. and the track now a bit moreover towards the west. so it looks like it will be passing that northern coastline as we go 24 hours out, look at the winds still 232 and we won't see a lot of weakening out of it or forward speed will be rather slow, too. so that will increase the had toing potential for the parts of the philippines as well as we go 72 hours out towards taiwan. and then five days out, it's still going to be just off the coast of taiwan. so certainly this is going to be a problem. i know we're all talking about hurricane irene, but we still have to watch the super typhoon, as well. back over to you. >> jennifer, as always, many thanks. and coming up, the countdown is on for ben bernanke's speech in the u.s. we have full analysis in just a moment. it's been a volatile week for gold. it's heading back up again after tuesday and wednesday's big selloff. as you see, $1786 per houps. a rise of $21.35. you're watching world business today. >> well, investors are turning their attention from wall street to wyoming hoeisting the world' top in the central bank. ben bernanke will be commenting and they'll be looking to see if he announce as third round of support for the world's largest economy. this is the venue that bernanke chose to announce a second round of quantitative seizing. the $600 billion that he pumped in to the u.s. economy brought some confidence back to the world's markets, setting off a rally for stocks. take the s&p 500, for example. from the time that bernanke announced qe-2 until the program actually ended, it gained 24%. >> a lot of people in the market hoping he'll do a qe-3 for the same sort of effect. we're joined now by frederick newman from hsbc global research based here in hong kong. nice to have you on the show. two question this is one. what do you think ben bernanke will say and what would you like him to say? >> well, the market would like to hear him say we'll print more money as we just heard, but we don't think he's likely to announce that. it is just 00 big a step now. inflation is too high in the u.s. to just turn on thepresses. what we'd like him to say is layout the options and simply say if things were to continue to deteriorate in the u.s., the fed stands ready to act. and that could be in the form of printing more money or some other measures potentially. >> there has been suggestions that he's running out of tools, if you like, to tackle the problem. is that true or does he have plenty more to use against this? >> actually, he has quite a bit more to use. the fed can print money, it can buy certain assets in the u.s., it can start buying stocks, it can start buying houses and mortgages. it's more that the government in terms of fiscal stimulus, there we spent all our bullets so far. but in terms of monetary policy, there are still options left on the table. >> some will call this a med indicated high particularly for the u.s. markets because we see the reaction in the stock markets for for this and the time has come for the u.s. economy really to to suck it up and for people to deal with with the pain and take it from there. is there any truth in that, do you think or does the economy still need a lot of support? >> i think the u.s. still needs all the support it can get. there are massive pressures on deleveraging, high unemployment, a lot of americans tell out of jobs. so it's important for policy makers to do everything they can. and a big risk if you're a monetary policy official, ben bernanke or trichet in europe, the economy can spin into a deep recession. >> people are deleveraging as you said. even if borrowing costs are low, people aren't necessarily going to start spending more. they need to deleverage first. so you're pushing on a piece of string in a way. >> but if you push really hard on a string, sometimes you end up pushing it and i think the they're here is that, yes, the demand for money is very low, but that means perhaps the fed has to to be all the more aggressive in doing something p we tend to have the view that the entire american economy is on its back. but really 90% of americans still pay their mortgages, we still have a lot of people who would potentially buy a house if the mortgage rates came down just a little bit more. so at the margin, there is still some effect that can be gained. >> let's take a hypothetical here. aggressive printing of money to get the u.s. economy going again. what would the impact of that be in asia? >> well, it's a bit tricky for asia because obviously a lot of that money would eventually head into asia because here the prospects are bright and it does fuel in-nation in this region. >> which is a big problem right now. >> in hong kong, for example, we have inflation of 7% currently. so that would be a worry for asian policymakers that more and more of that money would come into to asia and just stoke inflation. but that's obviously not something that ben bernanke has to worry about at this hospital in time as he delivers the speech. >> certainly won't impress the chinese policymakers. okay. fred, as always, thanks so much for coming this. it's no surprise, but at least now it's official. japan is getting another new prime minister. we'll have a live report. and also look into the time line for will power shift after the break. [ female announcer ] what if your natural beauty could be flawless too? discover aveeno positively radiant tinted moisturizers with scientifically proven soy complex and natural minerals. give you sheer coverage instantly, then go on to even skin tone in four weeks. aveeno tinted moisturizers. strength for the euro, the pound and the yen gechagainst the u.s dollar, this coming ahead of the jackson hole meeting as the federal reserve will be deciding potentially upon a third round of quantitative he'sing. welcome back from cnn london an hong kong, this is "world business today." >> it's been nearly six months since the double disasters that struck japan leaving the country financially reeling and also struggling for sablt. japan's prime minister was having popularity problems even before the tragedies of march 11th, but now that situation has hit a watershed moment. he's announced that he's stepping down as prime minister. let's go hilive in tokyo. why has he now decided it's all too much for him? >> reporter: well, he's decided because he made a promise earlier in the summer that after two key bills can it pass the parliament, which happened today, that he would officially step down. what he did today is gave up his post as the head of the party, in effect that means the premiere shift, the next premiere will be voted in by the full parliament next week on tuesday. and what this means for squa pan is that an unpopular prime minister, one who was deeply criticized for his handling of the disasters, for the nuclear crisis and also the economy, the economy is big here, it is what many analysts say eventually did lead to the demise of prime minister kan, he is now out of the way. it clears the way for the sixth prime minister in just five years for will country. that ongoing revolving door, that political instability is leading some analysts now to say that this shows japan is broken on a number of fronts. here's what one analyst told us. >> the broken political system is begin to ning to reflect the broken economy system, the inability to deliver positive growth in a long term sense and the inability of the politicians to deal with that. >> reporter: that political instability just in week led moody's to downgrade japan's credit rating just on on wednesday saying that there needs to be more secure political leadership in order to have any sort of positive sxhik outlook not world's third's largest economy. >> this message just doesn't seem to be getting through, does it? is there any indication that the next prime minister will fair any better than his predecessors? >> reporter: not at all. in a eat thing. if you talk to anybody, any economic analyst, any business leader, even corporate squa pan, they're all extra or thely pessimistic that the next guy will do any better. so it leave as lot of people, especially here in japan, to toss up their hands and say does it even matter. the question is whether or not the next premiere is going to be able to get some sort of consensus to bring back some of that magic. and we're talking about six years as go. so it's got to be some be who has some sort of populous platform in order to move this country forward. but again, a lot of people are saying that they are just in the that optimistic it will happen again. >> just explain to us when that analyst, when you talk about this broken political system, how is it broken? what has happened in japanese politics for us to reach this sort of stalemate? >> it is a very, very long answer and we could write books upon this. many people say it really gets down to the consensus driven culture of japan, that you have to have consensus to move anything forward. the parliamentary system, as well, thrives on consensus. but it's extraordinarily difficult to get that especially when you have so many political facts out there and people who just don't want to rock the boat. and that's something that's really a part of japanese culture. if they can find the right person who is willing to rock the boat, it's still acceptable to that norm of culture that's going to be a little bit of magic that this country certain needs. >> certainly sounds like it needs something magical to happen to get this thing moving again. as always, good to talk to you and thanks for your analysis. naoto kan sur privived a li more than a year, more than his predecessors. investors around the world are wondering what bernanke will say. after the break, we'll look at what's putting the fed chief under pressure. from cnn london and hong kong, welcome back, you're watching "world business today." >> let's check back on how the european markets are fairing about 90 minutes into this final trading session of the week. all eyes firmly fixed on the underside of the atlantic where we will have ben bernanke and his colleagues meeting at jackson hole, wyoming. and despite a lot of optimism about potentially a third round of economic stimulus in the form of quantitative easing or qe-3, it seems the market is not necessarily buying that argument. as you can see, these markets suffering. the kax down tdax down the most. >> most of the markets in asia down, as well. the nikkei did manage to eek out a small gain despite of or perhaps because of the resignation of naoto kan. the nikkei up just a fraction. nina. >> turning now to the u.s. pre-market action, after some sharp falls on on thursday's session, stocks looking a little shaky as we head towards the start of trade on wall street. futures pointing to just a slightly higher open at the m

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