captions paid for by nbc-universal television and welcome to "today" on this thursday morning. i'm meredith vieira. >> i'm matt lauer. the house of representatives set to vote on this tax cut promise today, expected to be a lot closer than it was in the senate, where it was 81-19. >> despite a new call from president obama to pass the bill without changes, house democrats say to expect a heated debate over at what point estates should be taxed and how much. we're going to get the latest from capitol hill straight ahead. also ahead, new details in the brutal murder of yeardley love, a lacrosse player at the university of virginia. attorneys for her ex-boyfriend who also played lacrosse for uva and is charged in the case are casting doubts about how love died, and they want her medical records to allegedly prove their case. we are going to have more on that coming up. plus, important news for parents. the government outlaws drop-side cribs that can be found in millions of homes, hotels, and day care centers. so what if you already have one? we will tell you what you should do coming up. let start this morning in washington where the tax cut bill heads to the house after passing a senate vote. nbc's capitol hill correspondent, kelly o'donnell, has the latest. kelly, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, matt. there is a complication to this that can only happen one time a year and it is here, the politics of christmas. with pressure to get so many important things done, there is really a lot of fighting going on and democrats and republicans are not spreading holiday cheer. 'twas the fight before christmas. >> this is a terrible way to run the federal government's business. >> reporter: the senate to-do list is long. >> the senate will come to order. >> reporter: republicans say there is only time left to fund the government before the money runs out this saturday. >> we ought to pass the tax legislation and keep the lights on. everything else, mr. president, can wait. >> reporter: democrats say they are not leaving town. >> yet, some of my republican colleagues have the nerve to whine about having to stay in action, do the work of the american people. >> reporter: republicans' message to harry reid, don't mess with christmas. >> the democrat leadership somehow thinks that by being here christmas week, that that's an act of courage, that they are being courageous by having congress here because we are doing all these important things. >> reporter: but reid blames republicans for stalling bills all year. >> so it's offensive to me and millions of working americans across this country for any senator to suggest that working through the christmas holidays is somehow sacrilegious or disrespectful. >> reporter: today, the senate will debate the new s.t.a.r.t. treaty with russia. >> we are ready to be here all weekend. we are ready to work and vote. >> reporter: the nuclear arms reduction treaty is a top priority for the white house. vice president biden says the senate must get it done before heading home. >> i hope i don't get in the way of your christmas shopping, but this is the nation's business. this is a national security at stake. act. act. >> reporter: both democrats and republicans in the senate did pass the president's tax cut compromise wednesday. >> the yeas are 81. the nays are 19. >> reporter: today it goes to the no-so-happy house where liberal democrats are upset the president refuses to reduce tax breaks for the wealthy. >> it appears our leadership is attempting to avoid our wishes and bring this bill forward without major changes. it will be a disaster for the american people. >> reporter: and the president has showed some calm but impatient pushing toward the house, saying don't make any changes. and on the senate side, they are saying don't make any changes, but today they will still try to peel back some of the benefits on the estate tax, but it is expected to be much tighter and there is still a lot of hope that this tax cut compromise can get done today. matt? >> kelly o'donnell on capitol hill for us. thank you very much. indiana republican congressman mike pence has already announced he will not vote for the tax cut deal. congressman pence, good morning to you. >> good morning, matt. >> you said this is a tough call. how do you think it will go in the rest of the house? do you think it will pass? >> i think it is a tough call. no house republican wants to see taxes go up on any american. and most of us have been fighting to make sure that no american sees a tax increase in january, but for my part, i just believe that this tax deal will do little to create jobs. it adds to the national debt. i think we can do better. i think we can take time to do better and congress should do just that. >> even as you make this decision, one of your fellow republicans, paul ryan, is criticizing it, saying this is purely a political decision. as a matter of fact, i think he goes further to say it's a purely personal, political decision, that as someone who is being considered or perhaps considering running for president in 2012, you can't be seen as too cooperative with the democrats or president obama. how do you respond to that? >> well, i would respond, look, we -- my decision is based exclusively on what i think is the right thing to do for the american people and that is -- you got to recognize a couple of things. first, uncertainty is the enemy of our prosperity. a two-year extension of the tax code is not going to encourage the kind of investment that's going to begin to create jobs in this economy. and i really believe that this -- this congress ought to take a breath. we ought to roll our sleeves up and we ought to do what we can, like john f. kennedy did, like ronald reagan did and embrace permanent extensions of all the tax rates. i'm arguing, you know, let's not do this take it or leave it deal from the senate. if the liberals want to have an amendment today on raising taxes, let every house republican vote on what we know would help this economy -- >> you it's really not a take it or leave it deal, congressman, because there's promise in this deal. there are things in this package that neither side likes, but that's the basis of compromise, and isn't that what's better for the country at this particular moment? >> well, i think, yeah, i hear about the compromise. i know that this deal was largely negotiated by leaders in the senate and the white house, despite the fact that the constitution clearly says the bills relating to taxes should begin in the house of representatives. but, look, bottom line is this is not about whether or not there was compromise involved. it is about what is it going to take to get this economy moving again? and a two-year tax extension that simply takes tax increases that are scheduled for january and says they're going to come two years from january is not going to encourage the kind of investment that will put americans back to work. i was in muncie, indiana, just the other day, matt, and i had a banker walk up to me and say, look, nobody is going to come in and sign a five-year note and borrow money and create jobs on a two-year tax code. that is the reality. what we are asking for is an up or down vote on making all the current tax rates permanent. i think most americans know that's what we should be doing to get this economy moving again. >> congressman mike pence from indiana. congressman, thanks for your time this morning. i appreciate it. >> thank you. >> it is 7:07, here is meredith. >> matt, thank you. so what do americans think about what is going on in washington? chuck todd, nbc's political director and chief white house correspondent has the results of the latest nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. chuck, good morning to you. what does the poll show us about how americans feel about the tax deal? >> good morning, meredith. well, let's start with that tax deal. 59% approve of the overall deal. that includes 54% of democrats, 68% of republicans. in fact, even self-described liberal democrats, 50% of them support this deal, 47% disapprove of it. so, there is broad support here, and i think that's why you saw it fly through the senate, and it will probably only hit little speed bumps in the house but probably get through. >> obviously, the white house hopes this bipartisan bill is passed because, as the president put it, he took a real shellacking in those midterm elections. he needs a victory here. the poll shows 54% of the people believe that the president got the message after midterms. how are his approval ratings? >> well, they did, but only about half of that group believe he's making necessary adjustments. now, his approval rating is actually -- took a bit of a hit compared to last month. he is sitting at 45% approve, 48% disapprove. part of that has to do with the fact that more people tell us the country is headed on the wrong track than at any time during this obama presidency. now, one remarkable thing about the president's approval rating it is actually kind of static over the last year, and our pollsters say considering everything he went through, including that shellacking in the elections, the fact that he still is at 45% is actually quite remarkable. >> a good sign. let's look ahead to 2010. you started to match president obama up against potential gop candidates. how does he fare? >> against an unknown republican, he is in a bit of trouble. he only gets 42% of folks saying that they would support him for re-election, 39% would pick the republican candidate. now, put some faces with those names, and he actually gets a bit stronger. matched up against mitt romney, the quasifront-runner, very early, of course, 47% for the president, 40% for mitt romney. against john thune, one of the unknown candidates, kind of like mike pence, no national name recognition, the president sits at 47%. you kind of see a pattern here, thune at 27%. then match him up against sarah palin, and you see some problems here for sarah palin because the president gets 55%, palin gets 33%. that is more about sarah palin than it is president obama because look at these negative ratings, meredith. >> yeah. >> she is sitting at 50% negative. >> palin, for all the exposure she has had this year, does not do well with the voters. >> not at all. in fact, there is a real divide. you dig inside the numbers. sitting at that 50% negative rating makes her the most unpopular politician we tested in our poll this month and tied for the most unpopular we have tested all year. only nancy pelosi scores an equal rating. women are more negative toward her. really, the only positive group of voters sitting out there, meredith, are fox news viewers, that is one of the only groups of voters where she has a positive rating. >> we'll leave it on that note. chuck todd, thank you very much. >> you got it. >> it is 7:11. once again, here is matt. >> thank you. we are learning more about the gunman who opened fire at a school board meeting this week before he turned that gun on himself. his wife spoke out on wednesday. nbc's mark potter is in panama city, florida, with the latest on this story. mark, good morning to you. >> reporter: good morning to you, matt. the more we look at the shooter here, the more we see a man with a criminal past who was mentally troubled and believed in conspiracies. he was also well-armed. >> you may leave. you may leave. >> reporter: as 56-year-old clay duke armed with a the millimeter handgun threatened the bay county school board and then opened fire, a terrified witness called 911. [ gunshots ] >> oh, my gosh, he is firing. he is firing. he is firing. i don't know -- >> are you secure where you are? >> we need an ambulance. >> reporter: in confronting the school superintendent, four board members, and their attorney, duke said he was angry his wife had been fired from her teacher's job. rebecca duke, who is separated from him, says he suffered from economic and emotional pressures. >> the economy and the world just got the better of him. and along with his bipolar, it just set him up for this horrible event. >> reporter: while police confirm rebecca was fired from her teaching job, they say she was unaware of duke's plans to lash out at the school board. even his former lawyer agreed the gunman had mental problems and wasn't shocked he was involved in the shooting. >> please don't. please don't. >> he was the guy who everybody you hear about on the news that believes in the end of the world and conspiracy theories and things of that nature. he was that type of guy. >> reporter: in the year 2000, duke was convicted of aggravated stalking and shooting into a vehicle in a case involving his ex-wife. he was sentenced to five years in prison. >> he was dressed in full camouflage, had an assault weapon, and basically was planning on killing her the day that he was going to meet her at her house. >> reporter: despite what happened at the school board, rebecca duke insists he was trying to turn his life around. >> he wanted a second chance. he lived in a very quiet community out in the woods so that he could -- wouldn't have to deal with the stress. >> reporter: police say they believe duke planned the school board attack for some time and arrived there tuesday with lots of ammunition. >> he had an extra magazine that was fully loaded in his back pocket at the time of the shooting. and then he had another box of ammo. >> reporter: neighbors describe duke as quiet and a loner, much different from the aggressive gunman who opened fire on school officials, then took his own life after being wounded in a gun fight. now, later this morning, school board security chief mike jones who confronted clay duke and ended the shooting, will tell his side of the story at a news conference, and he is being hailed here by many people as a hero. matt? >> mark potter in panama city for us this morning. mark, as always, thanks very much. it is 13 minutes after the hour. once again, here's meredith. >> thank you. there are new developments in the julian assange case. just this morning a british judge has granted bail to the wikileaks founder. peter alexander is live outside the court with more. peter, good morning to you. >> reporter: meredith, be clear, this was a significant victory for julian assange. his attorney says they have now collected the $315,000 needed for him to be released on bail. that means he could be a free man anytime now, and his attorney, mark stevens, spoke on the court steps just a few minutes ago. >> as you can imagine, we're utterly delighted and thrilled with the results here today. we think it was an unnecessary appeal. >> reporter: followed by a crowd of cameras, this morning's ride to court may be julian assange's final trip in police custody. the founder of wikileaks seen here through the police van's heavily tinted windows is in for an extraordinary change of scenery. from solitary confinement at a prison to this 600-acre estate outside london, so big it straddled two counties. assange's own lawyer jokingly referred to as mansion arrest. the ten-bedroom english manner volunteered by vaughn smith, the owner of a british club for journalists where assange has appeared in the past. >> i let him stay there. i believe in supporting the underdog. he's a friend of mine. i trust him. >> reporter: smith acknowledged it will likely be one of the most unusual christmases i have ever experienced. for the man who has made freedom of information his life's work, the price of his own freedom is $315,000 cash bail. with several prominent celebrities offering to help cover the cost, including documentary filmmaker michael moore and mick jagger's ex-wife, bianca jagger. the former computer hacker will also be under curfew wearing an electronic monitor and he'll be required to check in with authorities each night. assange still faces possible extradition to sweden for questioning after allegations of sexual misconduct by two women assange met at this wikileaks seminar this summer, allegations he denies. "the new york times" reports that federal prosecutors seeking to build a case against assange in the u.s. are now looking for any evidence of collusion between assange and the army intelligence analyst, bradley manning, the man who is suspected of leaking the classified information. meredith? >> peter alexander in london for us this morning. peter, thank you very much for your reporting. >> i have to tell everybody that ann curry is a little under the weather this morning and she's watching. ann, we hope you feel much, much better. we have natalie standing by at the news desk and natalie has all the headlines of the morning. good morning. >> wishing ann well. good morning to you guys, and good morning everyone. a hotly anticipated white house review of the war in afghanistan has just been released this morning. nbc's jim miklaszewski is at the pentagon for us. good morning, mick, and what does the report say? >> reporter:t does the report say? >> reporter: good morning, natalie. the president's review says the afghanistan strategy is pretty much on course, that in many parts of the country, taliban momentum has either been stopped or even reverse bud it also warns that any progress is still fragile and reversible. still, big concerns about receipt liability of the afghanistan government and those taliban safe havens across the board terror in pakistan. but when i was in afghanistan last week with secretary of state gates, i never have seen him or the u.s. military commanders there more optimistic about that mission. they do warn, however, that it still remains a long, hard fight and that american troops are going to be on the ground there for years. natalie? >> jim miklaszewski at the pentagon for us. thank you, jim. freezing temperatures and icy roads in the southeast are to blame for five deaths in mississippi and alabama, including three high schoolers. several school district notice area canceled classes due to dangerous road conditions. federal government has now banned drop-side cribs that are a tape is until millions of americans homes. nbc's pete williams has the story. >> reporter: cribs with one side that can be dropped down can make picking up the baby easier but an edge can come loose and a child can get caught in the gap. the government says 32 infants have died that way. that's what happened to 10-month-old tyler witt of new york. >> i rocked him, i put him to bed at 1:00 in the morning aft his 1 a.m. feeding and i never imagined that would happen. >> reporter: 11 million of the cribs have been recalled and some retailers have stopped selling them. now, the consumer product safety commission has voted unanimously to ban drop-side cribs a topped toughen federal crib testing. >> i believe these new standards will markedly reduce crib-related hazards and ensure young children sleep more safely in their cribs. >> reporter: under the new rules taking effect in june it will be illegal to make or sell drop side cribs that includes reselling them, too, on websites like ebay, craigslist or second hand stores. child care centers and hotels will have two years to phase them out and he replace them with cribs with stationary sides. drop-side cribs still in home cbs safely used if the sides are locked into place so they cannot move. pete williams, nbc news, washington. australian officials are launching a criminal investigation into wednesday's shipwreck that killed at least 28 asylum seekers, including 11 children on the shore of christmas island. november foreclosures dropped to their lowest rate in 18 months, according to realtytrac, but the dip is a result of freensz repossessions imposed for improp letter handled evictions and foreclosures. now 7:19, you are up to date. to become meredith, matt and al. >> natalie, thank you very much. >> sure