which came thereafter. notably, the closure of schools and then the full legal lockdown on the 23rd. i see the period from the 16th to the 23rd as essentially, a ratcheting up of lockdown. we went for a non—mandatory lockdown followed by closure of schools, followed by a mandatory lockdown. the same behaviour fatigue argument applied to all three, they are just different levels of mpi. right. and erha -s different levels of mpi. right. and perhaps before — different levels of mpi. right. and perhaps before a _ different levels of mpi. right. and perhaps before a break, _ different levels of mpi. right. and perhaps before a break, i - different levels of mpi. right. and perhaps before a break, i want - different levels of mpi. right. and perhaps before a break, i want to| perhaps before a break, i want to ask you _ perhaps before a break, i want to ask you about _ perhaps before a break, i want to ask you about the _ perhaps before a break, i want to ask you about the rationale - perhaps before a break, i want to ask you about the rationale for. perhaps before a break, i want toi ask you about the rationale for the lockdown — ask you about the rationale for the lockdown it — ask you about the rationale for the lockdown. it is _ ask you about the rationale for the lockdown. it is vital, _ ask you about the rationale for the lockdown. it is vital, mr— ask you about the rationale for the lockdown. it is vital, mr hancock, i lockdown. it is vital, mr hancock, and the _ lockdown. it is vital, mr hancock, and the inquiry— lockdown. it is vital, mr hancock, and the inquiry has _ lockdown. it is vital, mr hancock, and the inquiry has done - lockdown. it is vital, mr hancock, and the inquiry has done this- lockdown. it is vital, mr hancock, and the inquiry has done this in. and the inquiry has done this in relation — and the inquiry has done this in relation to— and the inquiry has done this in relation to a _ and the inquiry has done this in relation to a number— and the inquiry has done this in relation to a number of- and the inquiry has done this in. relation to a number of witnesses and the inquiry has done this in- relation to a number of witnesses at great _ relation to a number of witnesses at great length, — relation to a number of witnesses at great length, to— relation to a number of witnesses at great length, to examine _ relation to a number of witnesses at great length, to examine the - great length, to examine the rationale _ great length, to examine the rationale both— great length, to examine the rationale both for— great length, to examine the rationale both for and - great length, to examine the| rationale both for and against great length, to examine the - rationale both for and against the imposition — rationale both for and against the imposition of _ rationale both for and against the imposition of the _ rationale both for and against the imposition of the lockdown - rationale both for and against the . imposition of the lockdown decision of the _ imposition of the lockdown decision of the 23rd — imposition of the lockdown decision of the 23rd of— imposition of the lockdown decision of the 23rd of march _ imposition of the lockdown decision of the 23rd of march on _ imposition of the lockdown decision of the 23rd of march on the - imposition of the lockdown decision| of the 23rd of march on the premise it was— of the 23rd of march on the premise it was the _ of the 23rd of march on the premise it was the right _ of the 23rd of march on the premise it was the right decision, _ of the 23rd of march on the premise it was the right decision, but - of the 23rd of march on the premise it was the right decision, but also i it was the right decision, but also on the _ it was the right decision, but also on the contrary— it was the right decision, but also on the contrary position - it was the right decision, but also on the contrary position that - it was the right decision, but also on the contrary position that it i it was the right decision, but also. on the contrary position that it was the wrong — on the contrary position that it was the wrong decision. _ on the contrary position that it was the wrong decision. so _ on the contrary position that it was the wrong decision. so you - on the contrary position that it was the wrong decision. so you have i the wrong decision. so you have already— the wrong decision. so you have already explained _ the wrong decision. so you have already explained how _ the wrong decision. so you have already explained how your- the wrong decision. so you have - already explained how your position is it was— already explained how your position is it was the — already explained how your position is it was the right _ already explained how your position is it was the right decision - already explained how your position is it was the right decision and, - is it was the right decision and, indeed, — is it was the right decision and, indeed, should _ is it was the right decision and, indeed, should have _ is it was the right decision and, indeed, should have been - is it was the right decision and, j indeed, should have been done is it was the right decision and, - indeed, should have been done with hindsight _ indeed, should have been done with hindsight considerably _ indeed, should have been done with hindsight considerably earlier. - indeed, should have been done with hindsight considerably earlier. i - hindsight considerably earlier. i want _ hindsight considerably earlier. i want to— hindsight considerably earlier. i want tqust _ hindsight considerably earlier. i want tojust briefly— hindsight considerably earlier. i want to just briefly look- hindsight considerably earlier. i want to just briefly look at - hindsight considerably earlier. i want to just briefly look at the i want to just briefly look at the counter— want to just briefly look at the counter argument. _ want to just briefly look at the counter argument. it- want to just briefly look at the counter argument. it is- want to just briefly look at the i counter argument. it is obvious want to just briefly look at the - counter argument. it is obvious from the evidence — counter argument. it is obvious from the evidence in— counter argument. it is obvious from the evidence in cobra, _ counter argument. it is obvious from the evidence in cobra, the _ counter argument. it is obvious from the evidence in cobra, the evidencel the evidence in cobra, the evidence before _ the evidence in cobra, the evidence before the — the evidence in cobra, the evidence before the prime _ the evidence in cobra, the evidence before the prime minister— the evidence in cobra, the evidence before the prime minister and - the evidence in cobra, the evidence before the prime minister and in. before the prime minister and in particular. — before the prime minister and in particular. the _ before the prime minister and in particular, the cobra _ before the prime minister and in particular, the cobra meeting i before the prime minister and in- particular, the cobra meeting friday the 20th— particular, the cobra meeting friday the 20th of— particular, the cobra meeting friday the 20th of march, _ particular, the cobra meeting friday the 20th of march, chaired - particular, the cobra meeting friday the 20th of march, chaired by- the 20th of march, chaired by michael— the 20th of march, chaired by michael gove, _ the 20th of march, chaired by michael gove, that— the 20th of march, chaired by michael gove, that material. the 20th of march, chaired by. michael gove, that material was being _ michael gove, that material was being placed _ michael gove, that material was being placed before _ michael gove, that material was being placed before the - michael gove, that material wasj being placed before the relevant bodies _ being placed before the relevant bodies to— being placed before the relevant bodies to suggest _ being placed before the relevant bodies to suggest firstly, - being placed before the relevant bodies to suggest firstly, if- being placed before the relevant bodies to suggest firstly, if we l bodies to suggest firstly, if we don't — bodies to suggest firstly, if we don't proceed _ bodies to suggest firstly, if we don't proceed to _ bodies to suggest firstly, if we don't proceed to the _ bodies to suggest firstly, if we don't proceed to the final- bodies to suggest firstly, if we - don't proceed to the final ultimate mandatory. — don't proceed to the final ultimate mandatory, backed _ don't proceed to the final ultimate mandatory, backed by— don't proceed to the final ultimate mandatory, backed by law- don't proceed to the final ultimate mandatory, backed by law stay - don't proceed to the final ultimate mandatory, backed by law stay at i mandatory, backed by law stay at home _ mandatory, backed by law stay at home in _ mandatory, backed by law stay at home in order, _ mandatory, backed by law stay at home in order, there _ mandatory, backed by law stay at home in order, there will- mandatory, backed by law stay at home in order, there will be - mandatory, backed by law stay at| home in order, there will be many more _ home in order, there will be many more deaths — home in order, there will be many more deaths than _ home in order, there will be many more deaths than they— home in order, there will be many more deaths than they would - more deaths than they would otherwise _ more deaths than they would otherwise have _ more deaths than they would otherwise have been. - more deaths than they would otherwise have been. and i more deaths than they would - otherwise have been. and secondly, that the _ otherwise have been. and secondly, that the impact— otherwise have been. and secondly, that the impact upon _ otherwise have been. and secondly, that the impact upon the _ otherwise have been. and secondly, that the impact upon the nhs - otherwise have been. and secondly, that the impact upon the nhs if- that the impact upon the nhs if those _ that the impact upon the nhs if those further— that the impact upon the nhs if those further final— that the impact upon the nhs if those further final steps - that the impact upon the nhs if those further final steps are - that the impact upon the nhs if| those further final steps are not taken _ those further final steps are not taken will— those further final steps are not taken will be _ those further final steps are not taken will be devastating. - those further final steps are not taken will be devastating. the l taken will be devastating. the paperwork— taken will be devastating. the paperwork shows _ taken will be devastating. the paperwork shows that - taken will be devastating. the paperwork shows that on - taken will be devastating. the paperwork shows that on the i taken will be devastating. the - paperwork shows that on the monday the 23rd _ paperwork shows that on the monday the 23rd of— paperwork shows that on the monday the 23rd of march, _ paperwork shows that on the monday the 23rd of march, there _ paperwork shows that on the monday the 23rd of march, there was - paperwork shows that on the monday the 23rd of march, there was a - paperwork shows that on the monday the 23rd of march, there was a great| the 23rd of march, there was a great deal of— the 23rd of march, there was a great deal of debate — the 23rd of march, there was a great deal of debate about _ the 23rd of march, there was a great deal of debate about noncompliance| deal of debate about noncompliance during _ deal of debate about noncompliance during the _ deal of debate about noncompliance during the previous _ deal of debate about noncompliance during the previous weekend, - during the previous weekend, attendance _ during the previous weekend, attendance at— during the previous weekend, attendance at parks _ during the previous weekend, attendance at parks and - during the previous weekend, attendance at parks and so i during the previous weekend, i attendance at parks and so on. during the previous weekend, - attendance at parks and so on. there is, attendance at parks and so on. there is. by— attendance at parks and so on. there is. by contrast. — attendance at parks and so on. there is, by contrast, very— attendance at parks and so on. there is, by contrast, very little _ attendance at parks and so on. there is, by contrast, very little debate - is, by contrast, very little debate on the _ is, by contrast, very little debate on the face — is, by contrast, very little debate on the face of— is, by contrast, very little debate on the face of the _ is, by contrast, very little debate on the face of the minutes - is, by contrast, very little debate on the face of the minutes from. is, by contrast, very little debate i on the face of the minutes from the 23rd of— on the face of the minutes from the 23rd of march— on the face of the minutes from the 23rd of march of— on the face of the minutes from the 23rd of march of the _ on the face of the minutes from the 23rd of march of the data _ on the face of the minutes from the 23rd of march of the data relating . 23rd of march of the data relating to the _ 23rd of march of the data relating to the likely — 23rd of march of the data relating to the likely impact _ 23rd of march of the data relating to the likely impact on _ 23rd of march of the data relating to the likely impact on the - 23rd of march of the data relating to the likely impact on the nhs . 23rd of march of the data relating l to the likely impact on the nhs and also. _ to the likely impact on the nhs and also. on _ to the likely impact on the nhs and also. on how— to the likely impact on the nhs and also, on how many— to the likely impact on the nhs and also, on how many more _ to the likely impact on the nhs and also, on how many more deaths- to the likely impact on the nhs and | also, on how many more deaths will be incurred — also, on how many more deaths will be incurred if— also, on how many more deaths will be incurred if those _ also, on how many more deaths will be incurred if those steps— also, on how many more deaths will be incurred if those steps are - also, on how many more deaths will be incurred if those steps are not i be incurred if those steps are not taken _ be incurred if those steps are not taken do— be incurred if those steps are not taken do you _ be incurred if those steps are not taken. do you follow? _ be incurred if those steps are not taken. do you follow? as - be incurred if those steps are not taken. do you follow? as the - taken. do you follow? as the secretary _ taken. do you follow? as the secretary of _ taken. do you follow? as the secretary of state, _ taken. do you follow? as the secretary of state, i - taken. do you follow? as the secretary of state, i want - taken. do you follow? as the secretary of state, i want toi taken. do you follow? as the i secretary of state, i want to ask you. _ secretary of state, i want to ask you. how — secretary of state, i want to ask you. how clear— secretary of state, i want to ask you, how clear were _ secretary of state, i want to ask you, how clear were you - secretary of state, i want to ask you, how clear were you that. secretary of state, i want to ask| you, how clear were you that the data _ you, how clear were you that the data showing _ you, how clear were you that the data showing the _ you, how clear were you that the data showing the terrible - data showing the terrible consequences _ data showing the terrible consequences of - data showing the terrible consequences of not - data showing the terrible i consequences of not acting, data showing the terrible - consequences of not acting, how robust _ consequences of not acting, how robust was — consequences of not acting, how robust was it? _ consequences of not acting, how robust was it? how— consequences of not acting, how robust was it? how clearly- consequences of not acting, how robust was it? how clearly was l consequences of not acting, how l robust was it? how clearly was the position— robust was it? how clearly was the position set — robust was it? how clearly was the position set out? _ robust was it? how clearly was the position set out?— robust was it? how clearly was the position set out? well, by the 23rd of march, position set out? well, by the 23rd of march. the _ position set out? well, by the 23rd of march, the trajectory _ position set out? well, by the 23rd of march, the trajectory of - position set out? well, by the 23rd of march, the trajectory of those i of march, the trajectory of those data was unknowable. because the trajectory on the 16th was knowable, predicted and the reasonable worst case scenario was happening. of course, we took very significant action on the 16th. the stay at home request, if i put it that way, undoubtedly changed people's behaviour. and therefore, it will have reduced the r number. because of the two week lag between the change of the behaviour in the public to a change in the measured case rate, we had no idea by how much it had reduced r. however, we took the view on the 20th that we needed to close schools, previously we had been hoping to get to easter and easter had school holidays and consider whether they reopen after the easter school holidays. but by the easter school holidays. but by the 20th, we decided this was continuing to go up, the reasonable worst—case scenario, we need to pull that lever, too. and by the zist, essentially, the data that we considered on the 16th with the data going up the reasonable worst—case scenario continued up the reasonable worst—case scenario. cases where people had courted a couple of weeks earlier, so we had a greater confidence that we were on the reasonable worst—case scenario, which was a terrible confidence to have. and therefore decided to go the full measure. and pull every lever available to us. and that was the consideration. so by the 23rd, there wasn't a new forecast of what would happen under the measures that were extant at that point because it would be two weeks before we knew the actual impact on the 16th. it is entirely reasonable to argue that the measures on the 16th themselves would have got to r below one, but it is entirely unknowable whether that argument is true or not. i think it is false. sol that argument is true or not. i think it is false. so i hope this is making sense because it is about how we essentially, it got worse and worse along the lines of the reasonable worst—case scenario, and my objective at that point was to get as many lever is pulled as hard as possible to stop the nhs from being overwhelmed. in the nhs being overwhelmed is incredibly important because as soon as you run out of hospital capacity, the ifr itself goes up and you get more deaths from non—covid related health problems. because people can't get treatment. so the point of overwhelming hospitals is notjust because there is a moral duty to treat everybody. it is because the number of deaths gets materially worse because essentially, the people die because they don't get treatment. and that is what we needed to stop at that point and, therefore, we pulled everything. i point and, therefore, we pulled everything-— point and, therefore, we pulled eve hin. . everything. i have asked you about the data. everything. i have asked you about the data- the _ everything. i have asked you about the data. the inquiry _ everything. i have asked you about the data. the inquiry well - the data. the inquiry well understands _ the data. the inquiry well understands the - the data. the inquiry well understands the risks - the data. the inquiry well understands the risks of. the data. the inquiry well- understands the risks of direct and indirect— understands the risks of direct and indirect mortality. _ understands the risks of direc