the prime minister's ringing round his mps to try to save his rwanda bill ahead of the vote on it next week. tonight — how likely is it go through? how likely is a confidence vote in rishi sunak? and what are the chances of a snap general election? our friday night political panel is here with the famous newsnight whiteboard. also tonight... the people of gaza are looking into the abyss. the international community must do everything possible to end their ordeal. i urge the council to spare no effort to push for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. the words of the seceratry general of the un urging members of the un security council to vote for a ceasefire in gaza. most did — but the us voted against, and they have a veto. we'll talk live to the us's former middle east peace envoy. plus, are there reasons to be optimistic as cop28 heads into its second week? we have the technologies, and massive amounts of money has been pledged. all of these are good things. we are seeing electric mobility moving fast. good evening. there is an election due within the next 13 months, and with several of the prime minister's five pledges stubbornly unmet, his party is turning in on itself over one of them. against record nhs waiting lists, inflation at double the target of the bank of england, and energy bills going back up next month, different groups of conservative mps are this weekend scrutinising rishi sunak�*s new law on the rwandan deportation plan to see if they think it will work ahead of a vote on it on tuesday. immmigration — both legal and illegal — is important to voters according to polls, but not as important as the economy and the nhs. this rwanda bill, broadly speaking, risks alienating mr sunak�*s mps on the right of his party, who don't think it goes far enough, and alienating groups on the left of his party, who think it goes too far. last night we brought you the news that the cost of the rwanda scheme has gone up to nearly £300 million — that's double the initial cost. number 10 sources today suggested it wasn't rishi sunak who signed off the extra money. but suella braverman. here's a quick look back at the events of this week. migration to this country is far too high and needs to come down. does your party have a death wish? i think you can actually see | the prime minister is giving a press conference right now- addressing his immigration proposal. i see two immigration ministers, not one. # over and over. ..# the test. — and i was at the erg last night, they do have this legal star chamber. the conservative party faces| electoral oblivion in a matter of months if we introduce yet another bill destined to fail. i my patience with this has worn thin. joe is here. and we are standing in front of this very expensive —looking white bar because in a moment our panel will because in a moment our panel will be given their predictions, some of what might be happening in the coming weeks and months. first, what's happening behind the scenes of this bill? the what's happening behind the scenes of this bill? , ., of this bill? the government will be rinuain of this bill? the government will be ringing round _ of this bill? the government will be ringing round mps, _ of this bill? the government will be ringing round mps, and _ of this bill? the government will be ringing round mps, and whips, andl of this bill? the government will be l ringing round mps, and whips, and in that spirit i've been doing the same thing this evening. what's important to note is that there are moving parts here, including the legislation itself. one cabinet minister telling me to that if there are better ideas, we can tweak it. the bill is a working document, it will take advice. some closes could be toughened, others removed. this is a pretty open collaborative town because plenty of mps do not know how they will vote just yet, though number ten when i asked about changing the document said it's important to separate substantial changes from tweaking, tweaking as i was part of the legislative process, something substantial they would not be keen on because they think they're bill is good and strong. and they're bill is good and strong. and the background to all of this, we have this strange sense of brexiteer a deja vu with the european research group's so called star chamber being reconstituted —— brexit deja vu. these legal experts who will in the coming days give their advice on the bill and many on the right of the tory party will listen to them. can rishi sunak _ tory party will listen to them. can rishi sunak bring together probably speaking both the left and right of his party to get behind this bill? some sources and the government to might have told me they think so but the whips don't know and probably won't for a while. one cabinet minister described what the whips are doing now is letting mps marinate in a stew, think about it, but they may not know until tuesday morning, the day of the vote, how mps are actually voting, and of course in this past week they have not had a huge amount of success injuring government victories, we had that government loss on infected blood. we had to wait for the star chamber to give its legal advice, wait to see how number ten respond, and this source was predicting that, yes, robertjenrick and suella braverman are unlikely to back the government but they will be enough mps from the right and left of the party who are either prepared to abstain orwait party who are either prepared to abstain or wait until the next stage of legislative proceedings, the third reading, to actually give this a free ride through the commons. the lords will be far more difficult. and of course this is not the only thing the pm is worrying about this weekend because also, he is spending his time at number ten preparing for the covid inquiry, he is due in front of it on monday.- the covid inquiry, he is due in front of it on monday. thank you very much- _ front of it on monday. thank you very much. let's kick— front of it on monday. thank you very much. let's kick around, i front of it on monday. thank you i very much. let's kick around, then, what could happen politically in the coming days and weeks. with phillip blond — director of respublica, which describes itself as an "independent public policy think tank" — and a man who knows the thinking of the �*new conservatives' — those on the right of the party including suella braverman — tim montgomerie, founder of conservativehome website who has advised three conservative leaders, and rachel cunliffe — associate political editor, new statesman. phillip is here, welcome. so let's get your predictions, the rwanda bill, will it go through or fail? get your predictions, the rwanda bill, will it go through orfail? it bill, will it go through or fail? it will fail either in its third reading or in committee stage. imilli reading or in committee stage. will there be a no—confidence vote in rishi sunak? i there be a no-confidence vote in rishi sunak?— rishi sunak? i think in time as a result, rishi sunak? i think in time as a result. yes- _ rishi sunak? i think in time as a result, yes. 0k, _ rishi sunak? i think in time as a result, yes. ok, when _ rishi sunak? i think in time as a result, yes. ok, when do - rishi sunak? i think in time as a result, yes. ok, when do you i rishi sunak? i think in time as a i result, yes. ok, when do you think there will be _ result, yes. ok, when do you think there will be a _ result, yes. ok, when do you think there will be a general— result, yes. ok, when do you think there will be a general election? i result, yes. ok, when do you think| there will be a general election? as there will be a general election? 33 late there will be a general election? is late as possible for the new incumbent, and that i think will be january 25. incumbent, and that i think will be janua 25. i ., ., ~' january 25. who do you think the next prime _ january 25. who do you think the next prime minister _ january 25. who do you think the next prime minister will - january 25. who do you think the next prime minister will be? - january 25. who do you think the | next prime minister will be? it's a difficult one _ next prime minister will be? it's a difficult one but _ next prime minister will be? it's a difficult one but i _ next prime minister will be? it's a difficult one but i think _ next prime minister will be? it's a difficult one but i think the - next prime minister will be? it�*s —s difficult one but i think the next prime minister will be the one most likely to depress the vote of nigel farage and most likely to be taken seriously by conservative voters on migration, and that is suella braverman.— migration, and that is suella braverman. , braverman. 0k, we will definitely discuss that _ braverman. 0k, we will definitely discuss that further, _ braverman. 0k, we will definitely discuss that further, phillip, - braverman. 0k, we will definitely discuss that further, phillip, in i braverman. 0k, we will definitely discuss that further, phillip, in a l discuss that further, phillip, in a moment. let's bring in tim with his predictions. the rwanda bill, will it pass orfail? i predictions. the rwanda bill, will it pass or fail?— it pass or fail? i hope so, if it's aood it pass or fail? i hope so, if it's good enough — it pass or fail? i hope so, if it's good enough for _ it pass or fail? i hope so, if it's good enough for a _ it pass or fail? i hope so, if it's good enough for a judge - it pass or fail? i hope so, if it's good enough for a judge that l good enough for a judge that most conservatives respect, it should be good _ conservatives respect, it should be good enough for the parliamentary parix _ good enough for the parliamentary parix do— good enough for the parliamentary party. do you think there will be a vote of no — party. do you think there will be a vote of no confidence _ party. do you think there will be a vote of no confidence in _ party. do you think there will be a vote of no confidence in mr - party. do you think there will be a | vote of no confidence in mr sunak? party. do you think there will be a i vote of no confidence in mr sunak? i hope not and don't think so. the party— hope not and don't think so. the party is — hope not and don't think so. the party is mad but i don't think it's that mad — party is mad but i don't think it's that mad. i , , ., party is mad but i don't think it's that mad. i , . ., that mad. when is your prediction for the general _ that mad. when is your prediction for the general election? - that mad. when is your prediction for the general election? i - that mad. when is your prediction for the general election? i think l that mad. when is your prediction for the general election? i think it will probably _ for the general election? i think it will probably be _ for the general election? i think it will probably be spring _ for the general election? i think it will probably be spring but - for the general election? i think it will probably be spring but i - for the general election? i think it will probably be spring but i think| will probably be spring but i think it should — will probably be spring but i think it should be earlier, actually, there's— it should be earlier, actually, there's been talk this week of january— there's been talk this week of january election. the longer this parliament goes on, the angry voters are becoming, sol parliament goes on, the angry voters are becoming, so i would like it january— are becoming, so i would like it january but i think it will be spring _ january but i think it will be s-urin. �* ., ., ~ , spring. and who do prime minister will be? keir— spring. and who do prime minister will be? keir starmer. _ spring. and who do prime minister will be? keir starmer. he doesn'tl will be? keir starmer. he doesn't deserve it. _ will be? keir starmer. he doesn't deserve it. we — will be? keir starmer. he doesn't deserve it, we should _ will be? keir starmer. he doesn't deserve it, we should have - will be? keir starmer. he doesn't deserve it, we should have beenl deserve it, we should have been governing — deserve it, we should have been governing for a decade after 2019 but we _ governing for a decade after 2019 but we have squandered it all. thank ou, tim. but we have squandered it all. thank you, tim. rachel, _ but we have squandered it all. thank you, tim. rachel, come _ but we have squandered it all. thank you, tim. rachel, come on - but we have squandered it all. thank you, tim. rachel, come on down, i but we have squandered it all. thank you, tim. rachel, come on down, as they say. ok, the rwanda bill, pass orfail? i they say. ok, the rwanda bill, pass or fail? s they say. ok, the rwanda bill, pass or fail? ~' ,, ., ., , or fail? i think the star chamber is from both the _ or fail? i think the star chamber is from both the left and _ or fail? i think the star chamber is from both the left and right - or fail? i think the star chamber is from both the left and right of i or fail? i think the star chamber is from both the left and right of the | from both the left and right of the party— from both the left and right of the party continued _ from both the left and right of the party continued have _ from both the left and right of the party continued have serious i party continued have serious reservations _ party continued have serious reservations about _ party continued have serious reservations about it, whichl party continued have seriousl reservations about it, which it sounds like _ reservations about it, which it sounds like they— reservations about it, which it sounds like they might, i reservations about it, which it. sounds like they might, there is a realistic— sounds like they might, there is a realistic chance _ sounds like they might, there is a realistic chance the _ realistic chance the government could _ realistic chance the government could sense the _ realistic chance the government could sense the feet _ realistic chance the government could sense the feet and - realistic chance the government could sense the feet and in fact| could sense the feet and in fact pull the — could sense the feet and in fact pull the bill before _ could sense the feet and in fact pull the bill before it _ could sense the feet and in fact pull the bill before it even i could sense the feet and in fact pull the bill before it even gets| could sense the feet and in fact i pull the bill before it even gets to vote _ pull the bill before it even gets to vote. ., �* , , vote. that's interesting, we will talk further _ vote. that's interesting, we will talk further about _ vote. that's interesting, we will talk further about that - vote. that's interesting, we will talk further about that in - vote. that's interesting, we will talk further about that in a i vote. that's interesting, we will- talk further about that in a moment. will there be a confidence vote in rishi sunak? i will there be a confidence vote in rishi sunak?— will there be a confidence vote in rishi sunak? ~' ., rishi sunak? i think the thing about the confidence _ rishi sunak? i think the thing about the confidence vote, _ rishi sunak? i think the thing about the confidence vote, they _ rishi sunak? i think the thing about the confidence vote, they have i rishi sunak? i think the thing about the confidence vote, they have to l the confidence vote, they have to .et the confidence vote, they have to get enough — the confidence vote, they have to get enough letters to _ the confidence vote, they have to get enough letters to get - the confidence vote, they have to get enough letters to get across i the confidence vote, they have to i get enough letters to get across the line, sometimes that _ get enough letters to get across the line, sometimes that happens i get enough letters to get across the line, sometimes that happens when there _ line, sometimes that happens when there is— line, sometimes that happens when there is a strong _ line, sometimes that happens when there is a strong contender and i there is a strong contender and they know— there is a strong contender and they know who _ there is a strong contender and they know who the — there is a strong contender and they know who the successor will - there is a strong contender and they know who the successor will be, i know who the successor will be, sometimes _ know who the successor will be, sometimes it— know who the successor will be, sometimes it happens— know who the successor will be, i sometimes it happens by accident with no— sometimes it happens by accident with no plan, so— sometimes it happens by accident with no plan, so there isn't - sometimes it happens by accident with no plan, so there isn't a planj with no plan, so there isn't a plan at the _ with no plan, so there isn't a plan at the moment but _ with no plan, so there isn't a plan i at the moment but sometimes mps do .et at the moment but sometimes mps do get a bit _ at the moment but sometimes mps do get a bit overexcited. _ at the moment but sometimes mps do get a bit overexcited.— get a bit overexcited. general electric bought _ get a bit overexcited. general| electric bought your prediction get a bit overexcited. general i electric bought your prediction for the time in?— the time in? almost as late as possible, maybe _ the time in? almost as late as possible, maybe not quite i possible, maybe not quite 2025 because — possible, maybe not quite 2025 because that looks _ possible, maybe not quite 2025 because that looks desperate i possible, maybe not quite 2025. because that looks desperate but not in the spring — because that looks desperate but not in the spring-— in the spring. if you do think the next prime minister _ in the spring. if you do think the next prime minister will - in the spring. if you do think the next prime minister will be? i in the spring. if you do think the i next prime minister will be? barring rush invading _ next prime minister will be? barring rush invading the _ next prime minister will be? barring rush invading the united _ next prime minister will be? barring rush invading the united kingdom, | rush invading the united kingdom, keir starmer~ _ rush invading the united kingdom, keir starmer.— rush invading the united kingdom, keir starmer. thank you. we would talk further — keir starmer. thank you. we would talk further with _ keir starmer. thank you. we would talk further with rachel, _ keir starmer. thank you. we would talk further with rachel, phillip i talk further with rachel, phillip and tim about some of their predictions, some of them quite extraordinary predictions. thank you very much for thinking through those questions. philipp lahm, let's start with you, you think the next prime minister will be suella braverman, —— phillip blond, talk us through the scenario that might lead to that. �* , ., s the scenario that might lead to that. �*, ., ,, ., ., that. let's talk about what the conservatives _ that. let's talk about what the conservatives need. they i that. let's talk about what the | conservatives need. they most that. let's talk about what the i conservatives need. they most need those who voted for them in 2019 to vote for them again. they are twice as valuable as any other voters because of the distribution of the vote. the prime minister, or the candidate, who is most likely to win for them is the one who is closest to their most pressing concerns. migration. who would those voters take most seriously on migration? or do they think would deliver on it? but what is the mechanism that gets to her being the next prime minister?— minister? once you have a no-confidence _ minister? once you have a no-confidence vote - minister? once you have a no-confidence vote and i minister? once you have a| no-con