of the vote and 209 seats. the social democrats got 25.4%, just shy of labour, but only 23 seats. and he says that he has been told had they come second with closer to 30%, then scores of seats would have fallen their way. so here's the question he asks — what vote share does reform need to get to for them to live up to nigel farage�*s earlier claim? his claim was about votes, not seats, _ his claim was about votes, not seats, remember? so it's very hard. i'm still_ seats, remember? so it's very hard. i'm stillthem— seats, remember? so it's very hard. i'm still them because i don't know the exact— i'm still them because i don't know the exact answer with the fact is it would _ the exact answer with the fact is it would have — the exact answer with the fact is it would have to be a significantly higher— would have to be a significantly higher voucher than the conservatives because the reform uk is enormously inefficient because it is enormously inefficient because it is spread _ is enormously inefficient because it is spread evenly throughout the countrx — is spread evenly throughout the country. think back to 2015, ukip -ot country. think back to 2015, ukip got almost — country. think back to 2015, ukip got almost 4 million votes and got one mp~ _ got almost 4 million votes and got one mp. the s in p whose vote is considered — one mp. the s in p whose vote is considered in scotland had 2 million voles _ considered in scotland had 2 million votes in _ considered in scotland had 2 million votes in well over 50 mp. partly to do between your vote and geography and the _ do between your vote and geography and the reform uk is quite inefficient because they get pockets of support everywhere. the one thing i would _ of support everywhere. the one thing i would say, — of support everywhere. the one thing i would say, went to a conference yesterday — i would say, went to a conference yesterday and it was pointed out to me and _ yesterday and it was pointed out to me and it _ yesterday and it was pointed out to me and it was pointing out the obvious— me and it was pointing out the obvious but had not crossed my mind is in terms _ obvious but had not crossed my mind is in terms of— obvious but had not crossed my mind is in terms of conservative vote share, _ is in terms of conservative vote share. the _ is in terms of conservative vote share, the impact of reform uk it is going _ share, the impact of reform uk it is going to _ share, the impact of reform uk it is going to be — share, the impact of reform uk it is going to be huge because in 2019, the brexit— going to be huge because in 2019, the brexit party did not stand in seats— the brexit party did not stand in seats where the conservatives looked like they— seats where the conservatives looked like they were going to win. so the impact _ like they were going to win. so the impact of— like they were going to win. so the impact of conservative vote share on those _ impact of conservative vote share on those seats — impact of conservative vote share on those seats is going to be enormous. that's_ those seats is going to be enormous. that's the _ those seats is going to be enormous. that's the point. it does sort of reinforce the vote will be split on the right perhaps with no voice in parliament for those who are feeling disaffected and abandoned by the conservatives. i disaffected and abandoned by the conservatives.— disaffected and abandoned by the conservatives. i think the greatest imaue conservatives. i think the greatest ima . e will conservatives. i think the greatest image will probably _ conservatives. i think the greatest image will probably be _ conservatives. i think the greatest image will probably be to - conservatives. i think the greatest image will probably be to sitting i image will probably be to sitting conservative _ image will probably be to sitting conservative mps _ image will probably be to sitting conservative mps where - image will probably be to sitting conservative mps where they. image will probably be to sitting i conservative mps where they are losing _ conservative mps where they are losing votes _ conservative mps where they are losing votes but _ conservative mps where they are losing votes but not _ conservative mps where they are losing votes but not losing - conservative mps where they are losing votes but not losing the i conservative mps where they are . losing votes but not losing the seat to reform — losing votes but not losing the seat to reform uk — losing votes but not losing the seat to reform uk but— losing votes but not losing the seat to reform uk but they— losing votes but not losing the seat to reform uk but they are - losing votes but not losing the seati to reform uk but they are obviously having _ to reform uk but they are obviously having a _ to reform uk but they are obviously having a majority— to reform uk but they are obviously having a majority going _ to reform uk but they are obviously having a majority going down - to reform uk but they are obviously having a majority going down to - to reform uk but they are obviouslyl having a majority going down to such an extent _ having a majority going down to such an extent that — having a majority going down to such an extent that that's _ having a majority going down to such an extent that that's going _ having a majority going down to such an extent that that's going to - having a majority going down to such an extent that that's going to help i an extent that that's going to help lara or— an extent that that's going to help lara or some _ an extent that that's going to help lara or some of— an extent that that's going to help lara or some of the _ an extent that that's going to help lara or some of the other- lara or some of the other parties -et lara or some of the other parties get in _ lara or some of the other parties get in yougov— lara or some of the other parties get in. yougov expects _ lara or some of the other parties get in. yougov expects reform l lara or some of the other parties. get in. yougov expects reform uk lara or some of the other parties - get in. yougov expects reform uk to -et get in. yougov expects reform uk to get four— get in. yougov expects reform uk to get four seats — get in. yougov expects reform uk to get four seats with _ get in. yougov expects reform uk to get four seats with nigel— get in. yougov expects reform uk to get four seats with nigel farage - get in. yougov expects reform uk to get four seats with nigel farage as l get four seats with nigel farage as leader _ get four seats with nigel farage as leader 0he — get four seats with nigel farage as leader. one thing _ get four seats with nigel farage as leader. one thing for— get four seats with nigel farage as leader. one thing for sure - get four seats with nigel farage as leader. one thing for sure is - get four seats with nigel farage as leader. one thing for sure is this. leader. one thing for sure is this leader. 0ne thing for sure is this is nigel— leader. one thing for sure is this is nigel farage's _ leader. one thing for sure is this is nigel farage's time _ leader. 0ne thing for sure is this is nigel farage's time to- leader. one thing for sure is this is nigel farage's time to be - leader. one thing for sure is this is nigel farage's time to be an l leader. one thing for sure is this. is nigel farage's time to be an mp. he cannot — is nigel farage's time to be an mp. he cannot afford _ is nigel farage's time to be an mp. he cannot afford to _ is nigel farage's time to be an mp. he cannot afford to lose _ is nigel farage's time to be an mp. he cannot afford to lose again. - is nigel farage's time to be an mp. he cannot afford to lose again. hel he cannot afford to lose again. he obviously— he cannot afford to lose again. he obviously was _ he cannot afford to lose again. he obviously was a _ he cannot afford to lose again. he obviously was a last—minute - he cannot afford to lose again. he . obviously was a last—minute addition to the _ obviously was a last—minute addition to the lrallot— obviously was a last—minute addition to the ballot paper, _ obviously was a last—minute addition to the ballot paper, and _ obviously was a last—minute addition to the ballot paper, and i— obviously was a last—minute addition to the ballot paper, and i suppose i to the ballot paper, and i suppose he is _ to the ballot paper, and i suppose he is gambling— to the ballot paper, and i suppose he is gambling everything - to the ballot paper, and i suppose he is gambling everything this - to the ballot paper, and i suppose . he is gambling everything this time. he does— he is gambling everything this time. he does not— he is gambling everything this time. he does not want _ he is gambling everything this time. he does not want to _ he is gambling everything this time. he does not want to go _ he is gambling everything this time. he does not want to go down - he is gambling everything this time. he does not want to go down as - he is gambling everything this time. he does not want to go down as anl he does not want to go down as an appointed leader— he does not want to go down as an appointed leader who— he does not want to go down as an appointed leader who failed - he does not want to go down as an appointed leader who failed to - he does not want to go down as an appointed leader who failed to get| appointed leader who failed to get elected _ appointed leader who failed to get elected for— appointed leader who failed to get elected for the _ appointed leader who failed to get elected for the eighth— appointed leader who failed to get elected for the eighth time. - appointed leader who failed to get elected for the eighth time. therej elected for the eighth time. there was somebody — elected for the eighth time. there was somebody who _ elected for the eighth time. there was somebody who i'm _ elected for the eighth time. there was somebody who i'm talking - elected for the eighth time. was somebody who i'm talking to elected for the eighth time— was somebody who i'm talking to for the european parliamentary elections are mentioned today that it was coincidental that nigel farage announced his decision to run, which was very sudden, at the same time the polls were starting to emerge in the polls were starting to emerge in the united states which showed that the united states which showed that the conviction in manhattan had actually affected donald trump's share of the vote. and the person questioned whether that about turned because there was speculation that nigel farage was going to serve some role in a donald trump administration, whether that about turn was because maybe he had seen the writing on the wall in the united states. he will probably deny that, but there must be some reason that, but there must be some reason that he decided to jump that, but there must be some reason that he decided tojump in. share that, but there must be some reason that he decided to jump in.— that he decided to “ump in. are you su: arestin that he decided to “ump in. are you suggesting that — that he decided to jump in. are you suggesting that nigel _ that he decided to jump in. are you suggesting that nigel farage - that he decided to jump in. are you suggesting that nigel farage is - suggesting that nigel farage is opportunistic? suggesting that nigel farage is opportunistic?— suggesting that nigel farage is o- tortunistic? , ., opportunistic? perish the thought, that's not my _ opportunistic? perish the thought, that's not my role. _ opportunistic? perish the thought, that's not my role. but _ that's not my role. but extraordinary, thursday with the decision in court, the verdict and monday he decides to run. yeah, and there has been _ monday he decides to run. yeah, and there has been lots _ monday he decides to run. yeah, and there has been lots of— monday he decides to run. yeah, and there has been lots of briefing - there has been lots of briefing about how he was mocked by members of the public who begged him to run and all the rest of it but as he said committed support for reform uk his very widely spread in there is no particular one seat where it looks like they are going to storm it particularly, apart from perhaps collected which is the one where he his elbow the reform uk so he can stand. so we definitely want to get on the one gravy train that keeps rejecting him in westminster. i was looking down at my phone during your previous question because i was trying to check what happened with the dauphin the last time nigel farage suit stood and he was beaten by the man in the dauphin suit last time he run. i'm not sure there will be anyjoe candidates this time and clacton as i'm sure there will be attraction to him and there will be attraction to him and there will be a candidate between nigel farage, the conservative canada and labour candidate, who incidentally is a man of colour, where the novelty can turn up and try and take some of the vote. but what is really interesting is you have a reform uk is widespread and i suppose fairly solid but a minority across the country were asked to conservative vote, while is quite close as abortion and most polls, has a really strong pockets and places in wiltshire in the home counties and it's going to be very difficult to dislodge a blue candidate from those areas. itjust is. it's going to be very, very tricky even in a situation we have now where many conservative voters think about staying home to get someone else in instead. but staying home to get someone else in instead. �* , , w' , instead. but 'ust very quickly, the number of — instead. butjust very quickly, the number of seats _ instead. butjust very quickly, the number of seats reform - instead. butjust very quickly, the number of seats reform uk - instead. butjust very quickly, the | number of seats reform uk surely instead. butjust very quickly, the - number of seats reform uk surely has some context to what role he plays after the election. first, some context to what role he plays afterthe election. first, he some context to what role he plays after the election. first, he has to get into parliament but if they had a number of seats, then that suggestion or argument that the right might move towards reform uk becomes much stronger. lgrgte right might move towards reform uk becomes much stronger.— right might move towards reform uk becomes much stronger. we have got that comint becomes much stronger. we have got that coming anyway. _ becomes much stronger. we have got that coming anyway. nigel _ becomes much stronger. we have got that coming anyway. nigel farage - becomes much stronger. we have gotj that coming anyway. nigel farage and reform uk could lose every single seat they stand in in five weeks' time of the conservative party is going to be gutted and moved to the right anyway. nigel farage in his party are going to have a huge impact on how the conservative party reforms and models itself after the route. whoever wants to talk about what is what happened when the labour government comes in and what is most important thing at what sensible people in the party are worried about is with the opposition looks like? because that's what the conversation starts to be, then what happens with a limited government in, it's going to change as well. we are going to have to alter and deflect some of that. we will end up with just more conversations about far more a nigel farage way of doing things. with that he wins or is not, he will affect things sadly. i paras he will affect things sadly. i was ttoin to he will affect things sadly. i was going to point — he will affect things sadly. i was going to point you _ he will affect things sadly. i was going to point you to _ he will affect things sadly. i was going to point you to the - he will affect things sadly. i was going to point you to the list - going to point you to the list of candidates on the website but a very smart producer has just put that list in front of me so i will show you these are the numbers who were standing in the clacton constituency at the moment. can we see that list? this is not the final list but as it stands at the moment and the final deadline is tomorrow night so we will get the full list tomorrow. but there it is and it is on the bbc website. the conservatives might... the conservatives, i suppose, might point to a trend that goes beyond the uk. across europe this weekend, the parties in power are bracing for a drubbing in the european parliamentary elections, and again it is the populists and the hard—right that stand to gain. in america, joe biden's approval rating is stuck in the 30s, but better than many of those he shared a stage with today. the canadian prime minister justin trudeau is on 35%, the german chancellor 0laf scholz on 26%, the french president emmanuel macron even lower on 23%. and who is the most popular leader on the tracker? well, according to axios, its argentina's javier milei on 61%, a self—described "anarcho—capitalist" who promised to burn it all down. what happens if the european union shifts so decidedly to the right on sunday night? igrgieiiii shifts so decidedly to the right on sunday night?— shifts so decidedly to the right on sunday night? well kimmich i 'ust sa it's not sunday night? well kimmich i 'ust say it's not quite i sunday night? well kimmich i 'ust say it's not quite as i sunday night? well kimmich i 'ust say it's not quite as clear-cut h sunday night? well kimmich ijust say it's not quite as clear-cut as i say it's not quite as clear—cut as you implied _ say it's not quite as clear—cut as you implied because the far—right party— you implied because the far—right party lost — you implied because the far—right party lost a vote share in spain recently — party lost a vote share in spain recently and in poland you have seen the far— recently and in poland you have seen the far right — recently and in poland you have seen the far right lose power so it's not all happening across europe in the same _ all happening across europe in the same way— all happening across europe in the same way but it does look like the film same way but it does look like the right is— same way but it does look like the right is going to do well in that european — right is going to do well in that european elections. the answer to your question partly hinges on how well they— your question partly hinges on how well they do but one immediate consequence is i think it's going to be very— consequence is i think it's going to be very difficult for ursula von der leyen— be very difficult for ursula von der leyen to _ be very difficult for ursula von der leyen to get the majority she needs to be _ leyen to get the majority she needs to be regarded as a european commission president. i think for the denver— commission president. i think for the denver area and policy concerns, the denver area and policy concerns, the one _ the denver area and policy concerns, the one area — the denver area and policy concerns, the one area where a shift to the right in— the one area where a shift to the right in the — the one area where a shift to the right in the european parliament could _ right in the european parliament could have a real marked effect on what _ could have a real marked effect on what the _ could have a real marked effect on what the european union does is on net zero. _ what the european union does is on net zero, the climate crisis because a lot of— net zero, the climate crisis because a lot of these parties share and have _ a lot of these parties share and have infected the centre—right european people's party with a certain— european people's party with a certain scepticism about a big push in at zero â€