limited four day cease-fire with hamas. it will take effect sometime in the next 24 hours. >> lawrence: this is what we know under the deal 150 palestinian prisoners will be handed over in exchange for 50 hostages taken by the terrorist group. >> carley: that includes a 3-year-old girl killed on october 7th. jeff paul joins us this morning. good morning. >> it took the israeli government more than six hours debating here into the early morning in tel aviv. this agreement between israel and hamas might not only offer a pause in the fighting it. could give a sliver of hope to all the families of the hostages that were taken back on october 7th. now, under this u.s.-qatari-egyptian brokered deal israel will receive 50 hostages, women and children, in exchange israel will then release 150 palestinian prisoners. now the hostages as we understand it will be freed in groups of 10 to 12 people over a span of four to five days. during that time, there will be pauses in the fighting. prime minister benjamin netanyahu who has been under increasing pressure from the families of the hostages says while it was a tough decision, it was the right decision. but he also added their campaign to crack hamas continues. >> we are at war and we will continue this war until we achieve all our goals. to eliminate hamas, to bring back all of our hostages and missing people and to ensure that in gaza there will be no factor that threatens israel. >> hamas released a statement regarding the agreement saying, in part, we affirm that our fingers remain on the trigger and our victorious fighters will remain on the lookout to defend our people and defeat the occupation. now, we could see the first batch of hostages released from gaza starting as soon as thursday. and previous releases, those hostages have been sent to the rafah crossing. they then crossed into egypt. from there they are choppered back to israel. they go to the hospital, they get checked out. and then eventually they are debriefed by the israeli security forces here to kind of figure out what they experienced and what they saw. back to you guys. >> brian: jeff, i was just wondering you hear the reports they are going to be in groups of 12 to 13. most people agree that they are going to include a 3-year-old girl, american girl whose parents were killed last month. her name is abigail i'm wondering if you heard the same thing? >> yeah. that is -- we have heard as many as three americans could be included in that grouping. we don't know when, exactly they are going to be coming. one thing i would caution against is each day there's going to be 10 to 12 of these people being released. you hope there are these pauses in war and that both sides agree, you know, stick to their agreement because you got to think if you are one of the family members and they are in the third or fourth day of these releases, you are just praying that nothing goes wrong. >> brian: women and children first. all right. thanks. thanks, jeff. leaves 200 though still being held. >> carley: this is a deal that only l. only release one fifth of the hostages. we do have a fox news alert to get to here. >> brian: families of hostages are speaking at the vatican right now after meeting with the pope. let's listen in. >> life taken from their house in c kibbutz. hamas left them handcuffed 300 meters from their house. later on, mercedes' wife was murdered together with their neighbors. dror was injured but we don't know the severity of the injury. and we are all waiting for him. his oldest grandson has a birthday tomorrow. he is going to be 11 years old. this is the first birthday that he is not going to be with us. let's be the last one. we need to bring him home. we need to bring them all home now. thank you. >> hello, my father alex and my uncle were kidnapped from can a kibbutz. my uncle got shopped while he was kidnapped. my father 75 years old. man with a serious heart disease. have to get his medication daily to survive. we don't know if he get the medication. we don't know if he survived this 47 days. we just want him back for his certain children, certain grandchildren and four children. my c father is -- holocaust. he everybody, thousands in the world about learning from the holocaust. and now his second holocaust by hamas. and all the world need to understand what happened on the 7th of october. all the war crimes we this and condemn hamas and bring them home. bring them home now, the clock is ticking for them. >> i would like to stand to see you all and say thank you for listening to us. my name is alexandra. and i'm here on behalf of my sister karina. you can see her in this picture. she is my only sister. and she is all i have in this world. she was kidnapped from her bed in her pajamas with other girls. other girls were murdered and she was taken hostage. my sister is a pure, innocent child. she wants be to help people. and this is why i'm here. i want to ask you to help my sister. so she can come home and then help others. i can remember crystal clear two things. the first is what she wrote me on the 7th of october morning, before she was taken. she wrote me and i'm citing if i won't make it alive, please be happy in your life and take care of mother and father old life. do not think in sorry. live. this is her wish. this was her wish. and the second thing is that by saying that she made me remember when we were young when we didn't understand a lot of our lives she always laughed and told that i would die before her because i'm the older sister and that she will live longer than i. and i'm here talking about it because i really want to die before her and every time that she is there with all the other hostages, every minute, every hour is a critical time for them to stay alive. we do not know anything about them we know that some are injured. some need medicine. every one of them need to come home and not in coffins. they should come home to tell their stories. tell the stories of the other people who were murdered, so they can be our future. we need them safe and sound and alive. thank you very much. >> carley: wow, those were families of some of the hostages speaking in vatican city after meeting with the pope. their message is that the clock is ticking. these people have been living through this nightmare of not having their families for over six weeks now. for some of them their nightmare will be over. hopefully with this hostage deal. let's bring in dan o'shea former hostage negotiator and retired navy seal commander. dan, good morning to you. what do you think about this deal 50 israeli hostages in exchange for 150 palestinian prisoners. it feels lopsided, but 50 hostages will be headed home to their families, nonetheless. >> yeah. this is exactly why hamas took the hostages in the first place. they knew this was going to be their only bargaining chip when the idf offensive rolled in, which was inevitable. it is still a deal that could turn south very easily and the fact that there is so much media coverage and conversation at very strategic levels, being involved in this for years in iraq, until the hostages are home safe, we still have a long way to go. but this is a step in the right direction to start returning the hostages home to their families. >> lawrence: so, dan, early in the negotiation qatar and egypt are negotiating the deal they say, look, we. the hostages' names. hamas says we can't give you the names because different fractions within our organization have the hostages. so, my question is, you know, what changed in that part of the negotiation and do you trust hamas seeing how early in the negotiation. they said they didn't have all the names of the hostages. >> well, again, we're not just dealing with hamas. islamic jihad, potentially criminal groups. there is probably no one authority or chain of command. again, we are not talking about a nation state or an army. we are talking about a terrorist organization. so, of course, nothing should be trusted from hamas because they brought this whole situation to them on october 7th of what they did that day. that's why i'm very -- i'm not 100 percent optimistic about that this is going to go smoothly as everyone hopes. because, everything goes outside -- once a plan is initiated in a combat zone, the first -- everything gets thrown out the moment something can change. this is a very volatile situation. so we still have a long way to go before we start even getting the first tranche of hostages back reportedly on thursday. >> brian: the first are women and children. they understand they need a commitment from hamas to identify and locate the other hostages held by groups. we heard that right away. as soon as they got them over the border, all these other groups just started grabbing all the hostages from the hamas. so, they said one of the conditions is you got to go round them up. the other thing i'm wondering, too. from a surveillance level, you put a drone high up in the sky and you see where these hostages emerge from is it possible that a couple hostages -- one was rescued, they give great intelligence. the other ones gotten out might be able to get intelligence. now we are going to have 40 potential, i guess, resources to try to find out where the rest are. absolutely that do brief will be critical. information share will give insight to the status of all the other hostages. of course they will try to get a full name and accounting. we don't know how many locations these hostages are held at. there could be five locations there could be 50. there could be 200 different locations for where these hostages are being held. we presume they are in the tunneling system which won't give a lot of probably geo coordinates for them because these hostages likely don't know where they were for the last 45-odd days. nonetheless, the intelligence coming out will be very helpful for determining the status, health and safety of the rest of the remaining 200-plus hostages. >> carley: as 50 families are going to be celebrating the release of their family members, the other palestinian militant group, islamic jihad said late yesterday one of the israeli hostages that they were holding died. so these hostages are still in great danger and time here is of the essence. as a hostage negotiator yourself, can you take us behind the scenes and tell us what goes in to a negotiation of this size, scale, and level. >> to be frank and i said this in multiple interviews this is not a negative yasmghts the two principle parties' hamas and israel did not sit across the tactical. this deal was done through third party intermediaries. diplomats from across the u.s. -- across the world, including the u.s. sheikhs, heads of organizations, the red cross. this deal was manufactured between multiple parties but not the principles that's why i'm very cautiously optimistic that this will serve as a blueprint to get the rest of the hostages out there is nothing like this situation in a traditional negotiation role. >> you wonder where the hamas fighters are going to go every time you pause five days give me 40. another 5 days. give me another 20 days i will give you another 10. and these families, and i can understand it say you have to stop. it could be my kid you have to stolen. this the ultimate leverage as you opened up saying, dan. appreciate you joining us today. >> thank you. >> carley: fox news alert, the son of a south carolina clerk who was involved in the alex murdaugh trial was behind bars. we will tell you what we know about that coming up. >> brian: plus, a fascinating story open ai has new ceo and it's a familiar face. what it means for the future of the company we can't quite figure out. >> lawrence: first, a fox weather alert. a storm system 30 states. janice breaks it all down on the maps, next. >> brian: lawrence hit quad boxes. ♪ ♪ look who saved slider sunday again! here we go... 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(christmas music) ( ♪ ) weathertech gift cards have the power to wow everyone on your holiday list. offering a variety of american made products... weathertech! nice! like floorliners... cargo liner... seat protector... boot tray... cupfone... sink mat... pet feeding system... anti-fatigue comfortmat...and more. order the weathertech gift card instantly for the perfect gift at weathertech.com. while i am a paid actor, and this is not a real company, there is no way to fake how upwork can help your business. upwork is half the cost of our old recruiter and they have top-tier talent and everything from pr to project management because this is how we work now. >> brian: a fox weather alert. storms pounding states with rain, wind and snow. disrupts travel plans for millions. pouring up and down the east coast. i know it was pouring on me this morning but i digress including here in new york city 48th and sixth. causing major problems at airports across america on what could bees, as you have heard before, the busiest travel days in u.s. history. and right now folks are pouring into airports across the country to get to their holiday destinations. nearly 300 flights have been delayed this morning with another 40 already canceled. let's check in with senior meteorologist janice dean for a fox weather forecast. janice, i said a lot. you say more. >> i will confirm that you complain to me earlier today that you got wet from the car. >> brian: 20 feet. amazing. very b biz up from 183,000 last year. are going to be busy today. take a look at it. 974 flights, 316 delays, 40 cancellations, the worst delays, los angeles, new york, washington, d.c. now, the storm system that brought the rain, the widged, the tornadoes and even the snow is going to exit the east coast today. and a much quieter forecast although we have a new system moving into the northwest and that's going to be our next weather maker as we get into the weekend. but, you know, looking good for much of the country. but i know it's been very trying over the last couple of days. our forecast airport delays, you know, boston definitely and even florida. they have been dealing with feet of rain over the last couple of weeks. there is your thanksgiving forecast. so not too bad at all. our next storm system moves across the rockies. but pretty quiet and the temperatures are not too bad. macy's thanksgiving day parade spectacular forecast. lots of sunshine. a little bit of a wind but not enough wind to ground those balloons. so that is the good news. carley, i'm going to toss over to you. you never complain about the weather. >> carley: thank you, janice. did i get wet this morning. i didn't have umbrella. first day of complaint i'm officially filing it. >> janice: all good out of the way. >> carley: it's out of the way. we have a fox news alert to get to. a son of a south carolina clerk who was involved in the alex murdaugh murder trial is now behind bars. sources say jeffrey colton hill was arrested for recording conversations of the deputy county administrator. that official was the liaison during the six week long murdaugh trial. it is unclear if his arrest was related to those proceedings. the suspect's mom becky hill read the guilty verdict in the murder trial. she is facing jury tampering accusations from the murdaugh legal team. wow. to another fox news alert here. two men dead and five others hurt last night after a shootout in philadelphia, at least five guns and at least 70 shell casings were found at the scene. police believe the deadly incident was drug-related. the five people rushed to the hospital in critical condition are expected to survive. the shooting remaintenance under investigation. and new overnight, republicans hold on to a house seat after a special election in utah. celeste maloy beating democrat state senator kathleen reeve by more than 30,000 votes. the pro-trump candidate will fill the last remaining seat in the house giving republicans a 9 seat majority. malloy is a former aid to congressman chris stewart who resigned back in september. those are your headlines, lawrence, over to you. >> lawrence: thanks, carley. >> carley: you are welcome. >> lawrence: new polls spelling trouble for democrats ahead of 2024. donald trump leading joe biden for the first time in nbc polling history. as a new fox news reveals the top three g.o.p. contenders all ahead of president biden if the election were held today. vice president kamala harris admitting it won't be easy saying quote we are going to have to earn our re-election. there is no doubt about it. the president obviously have a lot of work to do to earn re-election. but i'm confident we're going to win. so, what do voters think? let's ask them. joining us now democratic voter jahmiel jackson and g.o.p. voter purcell. thank you so much for joining the program. i will go to you first, juliana, are you surprised by all this polling. >> i'm not surprised. i think every american can see the effects of democratic policies. the democrats, you can see when you go to the grocery store, when you go to the gas pump, the inflation in our country. joe biden has emboldened our enemies. he has [inaudible] on global stage. i'm looking for a republican candidate stand up to enemy fight peace through strength and back our allies like israel right now. >> lawrence: jamiel, you see the polling data and first time in history, in nbc history that the democratic party is not doing so well. even kamala harris is saying it's going to be a tough road ahead. what do you think? >> i'm actually not surprised by the polling either. i think it's about time democrats start having the stuff conversations about the election. about who is going to replace joe biden. it cannot be kamala harris and it can't be governor newsom. i also think we also need to start addressing let's say the migrant crisis that's affecting almost every major city that calls itself a sanctuary city where i am from, philadelphia and chicago. one of the things i watched two days ago was cardi b.'s viral how dirty the city is going to become because of the migrants. maybe she should go on x and tweet out to president xi so he can come to new york city and maybe mayor adams will clean the city up. i think it's going to take major moves for the actual voters who will democrat to start voicing their opinions, even if it's a vote of no confidence for joe biden to show the democratic party we need to start having conversations about who is going to put our best foot forward for the next four years. >> lawrence: such a good point maybe they will clean up the city. juliana, what do you think about -- it looks like democrats and independent voters are open to the republican side just because of the past policies of former president trump. what do you think about that? >> i think americans can look back and see were they better off four years ago or better off now. i think they know they are better off four years ago. the economy is for a lot of people. they can see that president biden, his policies just haven't brought their families to where they should be. i think, as i said, america has been presented as weak. we want to see a strong america and a strong nation and that's not something that president biden has put forward. that's something that republican candidates can put forward. >> lawrence: jamiel, it looks like, also, when it comes to the voting block of black voters, they are not all saying they are going to vote for republicans, but a lot of black voters are saying, look, i will give the republicans a 1409. or i will just stay at home. but it doesn't seem