we have five months until election day. now every poll that comes out we know it's me particular alsoly dissected as we all try to analyze where the momentum is. this time around we have seen trump looking strong in poll after poll. but, a few recent surveys including one from us here at fox, shows the race tighter and it triggered some wishful thinking syndrome in some corridors. >> big shift among independent voters could signal some new momentum for president biden. >> every poll suggests a tight race. this one shows a little momentum, perhaps. >> probably than biden has had in really months. >> it underscores that the biden campaign theory of the case here is which is that as people started to dial in they would find trump less and less appealing. >> laura: before they start making plans for the second biden inaugural, let's break this down and look at things in some context here. now, first, even with the latest polls, factored in, trump is still leading in the national rcp average, albeit slightly. this is important. remember, back in june of 2016, trump was behind in the rcp average by almost 6 points. and, of course, he went on to win. in june of 2020 though, biden was ahead in the average by 9.5 points. so the facts that trump is still leading at this point is a massive shift from what we have seen happen before. biden is also relying on the women vote to solidify his path to victory. but his current standing among women is the weakest lead a democrat has had since 2004. obviously bush went on to win that now, another key point, while national polls are very interesting, it's fun to dissect them. the 2024 election, like the last, will likely come down to a handful of swing states. and today, a new emerson poll is fantastic news for trump. he is currently up 4 points in arizona and georgia. 3 in nevada and wisconsin. 2 in pennsylvania. 1 point in michigan and tied in liberal minnesota. yes, minnesota. >> it's not that donald trump is winning so big in iowa. that's not the story. it's that he is making it close in minnesota. votes democrat in every presidential campaign and poll after poll i see trump within 2 or 3 points in minnesota i don't think the media understands exactly what is going on right now. yes, trump dropped a few points after being found guilty. that would have destroyed any candidate. the fact that donald trump is still even with or in some cases leading joe biden after being found guilty of 34 felonies, oh my god,. >> laura: by the way that pains frank luntz to say this because he is not a big fan of trump's. is he honest here. now, of course, no matter what the polls say. trump knows he has to do what he has to do which is fight for every single vote. so he needs to keep going to these inner cities, these democrat strongholds, preach the america first gospel, with optimism, and, listen to voters' concerns at the same time. people want cheaper gas, they want cheaper groceries, they want more money in their pockets. and it's time for trump to, perhaps, i don't know, resurrect the old theme song? ♪ ♪ mope, money, money ♪ money. >> laura: this is what the american people care about the brutal unassail i can't believe truth is three and a half years with biden in the white house has left americans, half of americans struggling to stay where they are financially. everyone is paddling joining us now is kevin o'leary. chairman of o'leary ventures. kevin, again, people get stuck on oh, it's about democracy or someone's tone about the press or whether he is nice to cats and puppies. >> is which election again about the economy. >> it is. it's more about the future than the past. some of the issues you just detailed are historic in nature and some cases long forgotten. the challenge for the administration currently is that inflation is really hurt. on food prices they ever up 30% on pre-pandemic on housing and energy. that's not going away. for the average american who doesn't care what the stock market is doing, that is a big debate. border security also huge. foreign affairs, every day in the news. whether you are pro-or con. whichever side. these are big debate issues. but i think we should address the 5,000-pound elephant in the room. this debate, i don't understand why it's happening. if i were biden, and the polls are closing, i wouldn't do this debate. i wouldn't even take the risk. because, unless he is very sharp in it, this could be very costly and i think that's what people are talking about given he may default you are going to vote against trump if you don't like him. i get independent don't like trump you vote for biden. biden has a lot of guts to do this. and team biden must be saying we have got to show up and we have got to perform. we have got to be really clear and concise and sharp on that debate. >> laura: let me just take issue with something that you said that biden has a lot of guts to do this? i think it's the only card they have to play. these -- when frank luntz, who is a -- you know, an absolutely ardent never trumper, i mean, he tries to smooth it over now. but is he a never trumper, it's fine. but, when he is talking as a pollster, about minnesota and other maine and virginia and new york state tightening to 8 points, a state that biden won handily double digits in 2020, that's big. and biden has got to change them. i don't think they had any choice. except to do this debate. his-- strike that justs aren't dumb people. they are pretty smart. that's all they have. they have to do it. >> you may be right. i ran into him in washington. we talked about exactly what you are talking about. i still say why? i mean, if you think there is any. >> laura: because he is going to lose if he doesn't do it? >> have you got perform that night. you have got perform that night. have you got to be sharp. you have got bring it. you have got to bring it. if you don't bring it, that's going to really be bad. >> laura: i think people have thought about this. it's not a novel point. but, the exceptions for biden, i think, are quite low. and i'm going to get into this next segment because i have my whole debate advice angle coming up. the exceptions for him are quite low. i want to get back to this point, kevin, about what matters to people right now. what matters. is january 6th, the economy, is it how much money they have to spend every month to just get by? it seems like that because. >> no, no. >> laura: go ahead. >> i will rank them for you. inflation number one, inflation number two, inflation, number three. you got to deal with those first. then there is border security. then there is foreign affairs and then there is everything else. if you are at the kitchen table in champagne, illinois right now you don't care about anything except the fact you are getting expweezed by 38% increases in protein. by 20% increases in energy. housing that's not affordable. that's it. that's what matters. that's what the debate is all about. everything else, interesting, not as important. >> laura: i think when you look at real median income. families wages. in the first three years under trump, i always take out covid because it was, you know, once in a lifetime we hope nightmare for america. but, in those three years under trump, for the first time in a very long time, blue collar wages were rising a lot of big companies don't like that. they like the never ending flow of cheap lehner in the country thats would good news to middle america and also, kevin, to new immigrants. they had a little money in their pocket. felt good, and they could maybe go on vacation every once in a while with their families. which a lot of people can't afford to do right now. that was then and this is now. and biden doesn't want to talk about that comparison. he can't. >> i'm sure trump will. your buying power has been eroded by 30%. there is no getting around that inflation always hurts the incumbent. you don't want it in an election year. you do not want inflation because it's the one thing that touches people every single day. they buy the bread, they buy the chicken, they go fill up their car. they pay their rent. and wham, you feel it. you just can't get away from it. and that, i think, is going to be the number one election issue. now, how these candidates talk a little bit about how they are going to solve this problem. that will be interesting. but, this debate will be more -- this will be watched by more people than the legendary hillary clinton trump debate. i mean, i'm rolling out the carpets. we are doing the popcorn. we have got guests coming. this is going to be the show. it's going to be a very, very large -- imagine -- massive cohort watching this. this is going to be huge. each candidate's chance to address the independents who will decide this election. this is the show of the season. it's going to beat shark tank ratings i can tell you that. >> laura: do you think this big announcement that melinda gates, one of the richest people in the world is supporting joe biden? is that really the message to anyone out there to connect with the regular working class people? or does that solidify they live in the bubble and don't care how bad the economy? it doesn't matter to her. >> no. she would have been better off to give every independent voter $4,200 that they have lost in buying power they lost since january 1st that would have been way better that could have worked. >> laura: that is good. kevin, thank you. great to see you, as always. all right, as kevin said, that big debate showdown as one week. we're here with chris counahan of our local leaffilter. so chris, tell us how leaffilter is different from every other gutter protection on the market. with leaffilters, patented filter technology, there are no gaps, no openings, no place for debris to get in at all. and we install leaffilter on your existing gutters. it's a permanent solution. you'll never have to climb a ladder to clean out your gutters again. that's amazing, chris. tell me about the process. simple and easy. just give us a call, set up an appointment. we'll come out and give you a free gutter inspection. if they're sagging, we'll repair them. if they're broken, we'll replace them. if they're in good shape, our local team will install leaffilter in as little as a few hours. wow. and i understand you guys have a lifetime no clogs guarantee? 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>> we're going to rebuild our cities and we will work with the democrats to do it. i will be glad to work with the people in new york. we will work with the people in chicago. in l.a. we are going to rebuild our cities. >> laura: i was standing there and it was like yes, good on him for doing that and when pressed on whether he will support a never trump republican larry hogan in his senate bid -- >> -- i'm about the party and i'm about the country and i would like to see him win. >> so you are endorsing him? >> well, nobody has asked me that but essentially i would be endorsing him, yeah. >> and he is also letting bygones be bygones with nikki haley as well. and last weekend in detroit, well, a picture is worth a thousand words. african-american voters, more of them see a republican actively courting their votes for a change on the big issues. they are not doing it by just cheap pandering. so the caricature that democrats are trying to paint donald trump with begins to melt away. substance, results a real record of putting money in people's pockets with a strong economy, of course, it pays off big time for trump. and, remember, trump is really funny. >> i just got this today, somebody handed it to me and said not as a joke. i said anybody have any tic taces and the guy said yeah, i have one. look at the size of that sucker. [laughter] this is called biden tic taces. [laughter] this costs more money than the one that was like 10 times bigger. this is inflation even with live audience take a few minutes make the tv audience which is going to be very big laugh. we all need to laugh. by the same token if at the end of the debate a lot of time was spent on the 2020 election. january 6th, or judge merchan, alvin bragg, fani willis, with trump at all sounding defensive or angry, i think democrats at least will consider that a significant win for them. remember, they know biden is weak. and this is not to say the weaponization of government is not a huge issue, it is a big issue. but it's not what is driving voters to the polls. so i would just quickly dispense with that i could see tapper maybe asking trump something like sir, as a convicted felon, there is a possibility that you may be sentenced to prison and face multiple other cases down the road. how does that make you fit for the presidency, sir? well, know that this type of question is going to be asked and do one thing, well, don't get trump to, you know, try to get trump to lose his cool, that's why that question is being asked. again, trump doesn't need to take the bait. now, on their convicted felon point, i would simply say well, jake, most people see these cases as driven by politics, and they know that i decided not to run for office again, none of them would have been brought. setting that aside, we believe we have a strong appeal in the new york case and we expect to win that appeal. and most americans, jake, have no time to follow the minute details of these cases, they are too busy trying to figure out how to pay their grocery bills and mortgage because of joe biden. their wages, jake, aren't keeping up with inflation. joe biden's inflation. wind open border fanatics believe keeping wages low with millions new immigrants in our cities and towns, they believe that's the answer. under my administration, wages and family income were up. and when i left office, inflation, jake, was at 1.4%. always pivot to what matters most for the regular people watching. it's about them and what they're most worried about. bread and butter issues. inflation, the economy, the border. and trump beats biden on all three issues. he should stick to those. now, biden doesn't know the names of the victims of his border invasion. that's another huge issue. trump should, and he already does. so when the debate wrans, the moderators and biden's people, they want their viral moments. they want to see trump maybe lashing out or losing his cool. but if trump sticks to comparing his record to biden's and also forecast what biden is going to do if he gets another four years, including get us into a war with russia, joe will be the one who is sputtering by the end and lashing out. and the moderators, what will they do then? they will be left with little more than tonight joe biden outperformed exceptions and trump was, although more measured, he was, well, still trump. so, after the debate, it's pretty much status quo. and that's the angle. all right. coming up, a 13-year-old girl gets raped by an illegal. and the liberal media laughs. we're going to expose it, next. ♪ a lot of new dry eye patients in my office tell me about their frequent dry eyes, which may point to dry eye disease. millions of americans were estimated to have it. they've tried artificial tears again and again, but the relief is temporary. xiidra can provide lasting relief. xiidra treats the signs and symptoms of dry eye disease. don't use if you're allergic to xiidra. common side effects include eye irritation, discomfort or blurred vision when applied to the eye, and unusual taste sensation. doctor: why wait? ask your eye doctor about a 90-day prescription for xiidra today. this is our last chance to help save thousands of holocaust survivors who are suffering in the former soviet union today. the needs that these forgotten jews have are something beyond anything you can imagine. have you eaten this morning? i ate the carrot, so i ate half of it yesterday. and this is what she ate in two days, one carrot. please pray for me! the international fellowship of christians and jews began this ministry to help elderly jews living in horrible poverty around the world. we urgently need