rockefeller center. and we are talking the 2024 elections tonight, because they just became a whole lot more complicated for the democrats. earlier today, west virginia democratic senator joe manchin announced he would not run for reelection, a decision he called one of the toughest of his life. but this is not goodbye and good luck, manchin says. he's leaving the door open for some sort of future on the political stage. >> what i will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest and created a movement to mobilize the middle and bring americans together. every incentive in washington is designed to make our politics extreme. a growing divide between democrats and republicans is paralyzing congress, and worsening our nations problems. the majority of americans are just plain worn out. we need to take back america and not let this divisive hatred further pull us apart. >> so what is he doing? those comments are raising all sorts of questions about a possible presidential run. however, one thing is abundantly clear. joe manchin's decision is a setback for democrats efforts to hold the majority in the senate, where they currently have 51 votes. manchin was facing a serious challenge for his seat from west virginia republican governor jim justice. and a state former president former won by 40 points. chuck schumer posted his reaction to manchin's announcement, saying this. senate democrats are in strong shape and are well positioned to hold, strengthen, and bolster our majority. >> meanwhile, we are just eight days away from another government shutdown day low-lying. this time, it is speaker mike johnson running the show in the house, where things are not even settled. house republicans couldn't agree on the two spending bills, and they've now left d. c. for the weekend. we've got a lot to cover, so let's get smarter with the help of an all-star lead off panel. peter baker is here, chief white house correspondent for the new york times. juanita tolliver, msnbc political analyst and host of crooked medias what a day podcast. and msnbc senior political analyst matthew dowd. he's also a former george w. bush's strategist and founder of country over party. all right mr. dowd, joe manchin says this was one of the toughest decisions of his life. was it the toughest decision or was he about to face the toughest race of his life against jim justice? is that why he's dropping out? >> well, if you had to weigh tough decisions, a tough decision would be attempting to win west virginia one more time. that would've been the tough decision. i actually find it quite a musing that we're having this conversation about joe manchin 's election prospects less than two days after democrats won in blue areas, purple areas, and red areas, including a place like kentucky, where the democratic governor won again. two days later, joe manchin is making the statement. the other thing i find amazing is, and i think this keeps -- this narrative keeps getting pushed about like there's some centrist party out there that somehow nobody represents. the funny thing about that is, almost on every single issue, the democratic party is exactly where the center of the country's. on roe v. wade, on guns, on raising minimum wage, on higher taxes, on higher income people, all i'm dealing with climate change. so we've been stuck in this debate about, well, the republicans are conservatives, and the democrats are liberals, and there's a center of the country and represented. the truth of the matter is what's moved is the democratic party has stayed where they are. the country has a whole has moved right where the center of the party is. what's moved dramatically is the republican party has moved dramatically right. so joe manchin wanted to present a centrist party and represent a centrist party. there is one sitting there for him. >> everything that you just laid out, matthew, why don't people realize that? >> well, i think because people get caught in this old mantra. they get caught, well, the democrats are liberal, and they mentioned two or three liberal members of congress, but what they don't fundamentally realize and this is where is the center of the party and where most of the members of the democratic house, senate, and presidency. it's where most americans are. and i think we get caught in this debate about left versus right in all that, and if you just go through the top ten issues, go through all the top ten issues that americans are concerned about. on every single one of them, the center of the country is exactly where the center of the democratic party is now and where the majority of the democratic party is now. and the conversation has to be less about the two parties have moved to left into right. it's one party has moved right, the countries moved slightly left, and as i said, there is one party that represents where the majority on issues, where the majority of the country's, and it's the democratic party. >> forget the rhetoric. look at the actual policies that are moving forward. juanita, let's talk about joe manchin's plan. he plans to tour the country and talk with voters about how divided we are. if that's not, i'm running for president, what the heck else are you doing? why would you be doing that? who would be paying for that? >> 100% agree with you, stephanie. and i think he used the explicit presidential announcement formula in this video, where not only did he get the calls for unifying the country in their, he also had a little bit of personal story talking about his dad and points to the bigger at washington, as though he had just been there for multiple terms. i think it's all laid out very clearly, and we should consider this announcement his on ramp to 2024, which again, is another blow to democrats from messi manchin, especially when this messaging has no labels fingerprints all over it. so i'm looking for just when. i don't think it's a question of if, just a question of when joe manchin becomes a third party candidate in 2024 for the presidency. >> peter, what do you think? juanita brings out no labels, who has been saying we're not trying to be a spoiler for president biden. we're looking for someone in the center. if that's what they were looking for, last night, nikki haley and chris christie gave them that offering that's not trump. but it's not who they're getting behind. they still have this phantom centrist of that will likely just hurt biden. >> yeah, i mean, look, the history of independent runs has not been one of success at winning the white house, obviously. we've never had that happen. instead, usually, it points toward one party or the other, or at the very least, it takes votes away from the both. right now, we have rfk junior, son of the former attorney general, the late attorney general, who's running now is an independent. he's gotten around high teens in some of the polls we've seen. although, even, there he's taken drawing from both sides, a little bit more from trump than biden our recent pouring. and of, course you've got cornell west talking about running as an independent candidate as well. he would obviously take more from biden, it looks like, then trump. any other candidate dilutes, in theory, the anti trump coalition, right? that's what biden needs to put together again, that he had in 2020. the people who may not necessarily love democrats, may not necessarily love biden, but really don't want trump to come back again. and they have some other alternative, the question is whether or not that siphons up votes that biden will need. we've seen these polls in recent days, despite tuesday's election, the polls for a biden are not as healthy as the election results we saw on tuesday night. the question was whether or not polls mattered, the white house has no. but they certainly don't want to see joe manchin in the middle there. they certainly don't want to see these other independent candidates out there. >> yes, but of course polls are predictive, and elections actually or have consequences. let's actually look at some highlights from last night's gop debate. >> we've become a party of losers, at the end of the day. >> i'm sick of republicans losing. >> we need a president and a candidate who will actually help our base solidify and attract independent voters into our party. >> anybody who's going to be spending the next year and a half of their life focusing on keeping themselves out of jail and courtrooms cannot leave this party or this country. >> do you want a leader from a different generation was going to put this country first, or do you want dick cheney in three inch heels? we've got two of them onstage tonight. >> i'd first like to say they're five inch heels, and i don't wear them unless you can run in them. >> i'm 100 percent pro-life. i am a hunter percent pro life voting record. i would certainly, as president the united states, have a 15-week national limit. >> we are better off when we can promote a culture of life. >> here is the missing ingredient in this movement, sexual responsibility for men. >> here is finding consensus. we don't need to divide america over this issue anymore. >> i trust the people of this country. state by state to make the call for themselves. >> i'm going to be telling bibi netanyahu, finish the job once and for all. >> the first thing i said to him when it happened, was i said finish them. >> wipe hamas off of the map. >> tiktok should be banned because they are poison in american minds and i would do it week one. >> in the last debate she made, fun of me for joining tiktok. well, her own daughter was using the app for a long time, so you might wanna take care of your family first. >> leave your -- my daughter out of your voice. >> here's the truth. the easy answer -- >> i think everyone collectively agreed last night that no one wants to think about sex and vivek ramaswamy. well that happened, of matthew, donald trump was holding his own rally a few miles away, skipping the debate. and he is clearly still in the lead. are these gop events to see who comes in second, or are they happening just to wait around to see if he drops out, guys, or goes to jail? >> i think it's all of the above, but what i found amazing as we still have these five candidates, who think this is the olympics, where they get a silver medal for finishing second. i mean, the constant conversation is, well, nikki haley's rison or vivek ramaswamy is moved up a little bit or whatever. and what's happened over and over again, donald trump started this race 15 points ahead of who was in second. donald trump today is 40 points ahead of who's in second. that's what's happened in this race. it's gone from a 15 point margin to a 40-point margin as the presidential race goes on. i don't know what goes on in their heads and what they think they're going to accomplish, weather is getting some tv contract or whether they're going to get some position on board or whatever thing they want to get on this. or maybe they just have something they want to say in this. what they all, with the exception of chris christie, who actually is more popular among democrats than he is among republicans. that's fundamentally a problem he has running in the gop primary. in the course of this, none of them, even though all of them want to be the presidential nominee, none of them make a real concerted argument besides chris christie of why the guy that's leading shouldn't be the nominee. so, if things go forward, and i don't even think a conviction at this point would affect donald trump winning the gop race. we've seen every single indictment helping along the way. i don't think conviction would throw him off the course of this race, but republicans have fundamentally changed who they are. and it's no longer donald trump's fault, in my view. donald trump may have instigated this. this party has moved so far out of the mainstream and towards in autocratic party that they keep arguing over all the small things. what they fundamentally haven't done is say we need to turn our party around. >> okay, but donald trump is so far ahead, 40 points. the one thing he doesn't have is wins. okay? he's at his own rally last night standing next to sarah huckabee sanders and they're not talking about a single kitchen table issues, which is what people actually vote on. they're up there, and what sarah huckabee's talking about is conspiracy theories, book banning. and that might work with the republican base, clearly it does, look how well donald trump is doing, but in a general election, americans do not care for that nonsense and that noise. look at the election to nights ago. look at the midterms last year and the last presidential election, which president biden won fair and square. when he does? >> and in 2018, where democrats regain control of the house, right? it all shows in that opening line of the debate montage you showed, republicans are losers. and they will continue to lose because they can't quit trump. they refused to quit trump. every opportunity there given. ink about after january 6th, they could've walked away, but they didn't. mccarthy went and kiss the ring. trump proceeded to pick every senate nominee across the map. and the republicans lost again. i fully expect that to be what happens again in 2024, because they are not going to let him go. they are still beholden to him, and they still stand by, even in the face of all the atrocities he's executed, because they want to continue on this path. and it's the same thing we see with abortion as well. just the same way they don't have a lying to stand up against trump, or a pathway away from trump, they don't have a line or pathway way away from abortion. that is going to continue to cost them in elections, especially if abortion rights advocates are successful in getting abortion related ballot questions on the ballots in states like florida, like nevada, like pennsylvania. it's going to be critical, exactly right. and i say that not just for the top of the ticket in 2024, but also for those senate races, because just like matt said, manchin really dealt a blow to democrats by giving away this one seat in west virginia, but this is a way for democrats to re-strategize, modify their investments, and invest in these ballot questions to be on there so that they know they're trying to drive turnout and drive interest across partisan lines across age demographics, across race demographics, because that's how popular abortion rights are. >> peter, is that the democratic takeaway for the week, get abortion rights on as many ballots as possible? >> that certainly one of the takeaways, yeah. and it's possible that they could get some referendum on a few key stains there. arizona, pennsylvania in particular, our battleground states where they would want to get abortion issue on the ballot. but of course, there is a limit to how much the abortion issue is translated from a direct referendum style choice and a candidate style choice, right? we've seen time and time again that if you ask voters, even in red states, do you want to try and and abortion rights? even red states, they say yes. 7%, i think since the dobbs's person. it's not necessarily always translated into -- a lot of plays in the country at least. remember that tuesday's election were a good goodnight awfully obviously for biden and democrats, who had a lot of -- but was a pretty close election. if you look at virginia, for instance, where a lot of people were cheering the fact the democrats took full control of state legislature and supported 11 governor, the republican governor, some people might run for president. that was a big deal, that democrats took control the legislator. look how close it was. if you look at the race, just one state senate race had 1900 votes changed, just one state house race had 800 votes change. and you would not have had democrats in full control the legislature. so it's a very competitive environment right now, in a lot of places, and the worry for some democrats i hear is don't over-interpret the tuesday results because you still pretty competitive and difficult your head of you. >> you three never disappoint. peter baker, juanita tolliver, matthew dowd, the assignment was to make us smarter. and you got the job done. great to see you all. when we come back, what is next for donald trump civil fraud trial after his daughter ivanka took the stand? david enrich and glenn kirschner are here on her testimony on deutsche bank, and why it matters about the case. later, president biden heads to illinois to celebrate the tentative deal struck between the uaw and automakers. we'll talk to you might have you president fain, who met with the president earlier today. the 11th hour just getting underway on a thursday night. dealdash.com, online auctions since 2009. this playstation 5 sold for only 50 cents. this ipad pro sold for less than $34. and this nintendo switch, sold for less than $20. i got this kitchenaid stand mixer for only $56. i got this bbq smoker for 26 bucks. and shipping is always free. go to dealdash.com right now and see how much you can save. c'mon, we're right there. c'mon baby. it's the only we need. go, go, go, go! ah! touchdown baby! -touchdown! are your neighbors watching the same game? yeah, my 5g home internet delays the game a bit. but you get used to it. try these. they're noise cancelling earmuffs. i stole them from an airport. it's always something with you, man. great! solid! -greek salad? exactly! don't delay the game with verizon or t-mobile 5g >> we have reached the halfway home internet. catch it on the xfinity 10g network. point, and donald trump's new york civil fraud trial, and his lawyers tried to end it early, filing a request to the judge to issue a verdict clearing the former president. the judge did not rule on that request, which means the trial will continue on monday as scheduled. the state rested its case wednesday after testimony from donald trump's eldest daughter ivanka testimony that the new york a. g. james did not find persuasive. >> ivanka trump was cordial, she was disciplined, she was controlled, and she was very courteous. but her testimony raises some questions with regards to its credibility, which will be a question for the finder of fact. >> joining us now, former federal prosecutor and my chief legal explainer glenn kershner and david enrich, business investigations editor for the new york times. but that is not why he is here. he is the author of dark towers, deutsche bank, donald trump, and an epic trail of destruction. david, while ivanka trump was testifying, the entire time all i wanted to do was talk to you. yes, we kept hearing totally different from her brother. she is polite, she is courteous, but that doesn't mean she is honest. she wasn't just a plus one, she was the point person on a number of major real estate transactions for the family business. and we heard a whole lot of i do not recall. what do you think? >> i think she doesn't have a very good memory, apparently. as you just said, she was the point person for the bank's relationship with -- the trump organization's relationship with its primary lender, deutsche bank. and she is really forgotten all the things that have gone on, she forgot a lot. she over an over again was the person who managed to get money for the trump organization would know what their bank would touch it with a ten foot pole. and her testimony, it raises the question of either she has a bad memory, or she doesn't want to delve into the details about why the trump organization was presented with finances. it finances in a very optimistic, rosy way to deutsche bank, that were apparently in order to get better terms or more money out of the bank. >> glenn, what can you tell us about this request from team trump? >> there are requests to have th