and stamina versus a four timed indicted and lie able for sexual abuse and ex president and his meetings to business leaders reveal a candidate would is more erratic now than ever before, who appears to be in a race against himself to say and do the most incoherent and inexplicable thing. his spewing of lies and delusions presented a unique challenge to anyone trying to talk to him let alone challenge him on the stage and tv. trump is free from a gag order that held him back from smearing witnesses and jurors in the case that resulted in his first ever criminal conviction. hillary clinton, the only own person other than president joe biden who has taken trump on, on a debate stage, said this in a brand-new op-ed in the new york time. it is a waste of time to refute trump's arguments in a normal debate. it is impossible to identify what his arguments are. he started with nonsense and digressed into blather and this is only gotten worse but yet expectations for him is to low, if he doesn't light himself on fire thursday evening? will say he was down right presidential. and he and his allies are trying anything and everything to re-set the expectation game. including lashing out at the debate moderators, floating a baseless conspiracy that joe biden is taking performance enhancing drugs and walking back about joe biden's ability from the debate stage. here is some of that. watch. >> i really think he has to debate. he might as well get did over with. probably should do it early so that he can, you know, because he's not going to get any better. >> i assume he's going to be somebody that will be a worthy debater. i would say so. i think -- i don't want to underestimate him. >> the word is that i'm two points up. i don't know if that is good or bad. how are you two points up to biden. he can't talk, he can't walk. he can't find his way off the stage. can't put two sentences together. although he has agreed to debate. so maybe he knows something. he's going to be so jacked up for those debates. you watch. >> he's sleeping now. because they want to get him good and strong so a little before debate time he gets a shot in the [ bleep ] and then they want to strengthen him up. >> you have to be really steeped in right-wing nonsense to know what any of those jabs pertain to. but there is a way to cut through some of the lies and conspiracy theories and noise. one against hillary clinton writing in "the new york times" this, quote, these ploys will fall flat is president biden is as direct and forceful as he was when engaging republican hecklers in march. the president also has the facts and the truth on his side. he led america's comeback from an a historic health and economic crisis with more than 15 million jobs created so far. with incomes for working families rising and inflation slowing, investments in clean energy and advancement in manufacturing is soaring. the prelude to an unconventional debate in america is where we begin today. former obama campaign manager and political analyst david fluff is here. and political strategist and senior analyst matt gout is here and seasoned expert strategist, liz smith rounds us out. matt, i'm going to start with you. because we did some of this together. preparing candidates who weren't the greatest debaters and playing this game, we should just call it a game, the expectations game is a game not really even with the voters in mind but with the media in mind to help shape that first sentence, the first line of the story, the morning after the debate, or i guess we're so old it happens as the debate is happening. what is your sense of -- of what joe biden should really be focused on today, tomorrow and heading into thursday? >> well you're right, the expectations game is a big part of this. because there my view, what is the most important part of the debate is what voters expectations are of the candidate and the delta that existed between what their expectations are and what happened at the debate. that is most important part of this in the course of this. i mean, if i were joe biden, i think hillary clinton's advice is right on. i don't -- one part i don't agree, i don't think facts actually matter in this election. unfortunately, they don't matter to 44% of the population that we know is already locked in and doesn't care. you could argue with them until your blue in the face and it won't change their minds on something. but to me, the debate joe biden needs to concentrate on three audiences and the three audiences are, one, doing well and being aggressive and showing his energy in that way to motivate the democratic base because think that he still has a point or two to gain by motivating the democratic base through his debate. two, if he is able to confront donald trump and put donald trump back on his heels and i think the structure of the debate with the ability to mute the mic may do that. it might help to demote vat his base. and the 8 to 10% of the country that is swingable, that is all that is left in this country, and i think they are looking not so much for a list of policy things, though i think joe biden will be able to annunciate those. they are looking for questions about his age and his stamina and if he could answer those questions in a debate in june, and i think the timing of this is actually really important, maybe more important than other debates that have happened in years past, because this is the only time they're going to see the two people on stage for the next two or three months. the next debate isn't until september. and so that is why i, one, i think this is going to get the largest audience for a debate but, two, it could set the tone for the next two or three months because if donald trump doesn't do well, there is not another avenue to fix that until september. >> david plouffe, what are your thoughts on this, the day before the day before the debate. >> well, i agree very much with matthew. so i think in many respects biden's central challenge is one of the easier ones we've had in recent memory because it is simply, and this isn't pundits, voter have said in polls, they're not sure he could get through 90 minutes and surprised if he doesn't make mistakes. so if he could be forceful and be strong and not cough up a football, that is going a long wray to assuaging the concerns that voters have. and agree with matthew, this is a huge audience but it is not everybody who is going to vote. so if you're a presidential campaign, there is people who are watching it directly, if that is spin proof people will see it. there are tens of millions of people voting in this election who will only see this through youtube and tiktok and instagram so you have to have good moments that you could put money behind and some of that will be organic. so that is right. and then i think the question for trump is, i don't think he's capable of doing this. but if you were simply to say inflation is too high, the border is out of control, you were better off four years ago and here is what i want to do about it, that is also an easy task. i don't think he's capable of doing that. this is the most important 90 minutes in joe biden's political career. it is one in my view point, one of the most important in recent american political history. because if joe biden doesn't do what he needs to do on thursday, and i think he can, he's a solid debater, i'm not sure that trump will debate on september 10th. so i think this is what you have to -- and listen, i helped prepare joe biden for vice presidential debates and he worked hard and he's a long and loquacious speaker and he could get down to two or three minutes and he connects with the american people. even with the challenging poll numbers, he still has had been edge on people like you and as he talked about the economy and health care and democracy, if he does it through that very authentic lense, i think it could be a good night for him. >> liz, i want to put you on the spot. i actually, i think you're three of the smartest operatives that have done this job and you are still doing this job. you're helping the biden campaign and we want to hear about that. but i disagree. i think if you're talking about health care and jobs, i think you're having a different conversation. people that turned on want to see if you're strong enough. that is it. and i think -- i spent the weekend talking to folks about campaigns. people go with the crazy guy over the guy they don't think is strong enough. and trump is talking about getting a shot -- ass is the word that was bleeped. he accused joe biden is sleeping until he gets a shot in the ass. this makes me wonder what they're shooting in trump's ass. this is not the high kind of debate that people talk about in debates and i wonder how you deal with that. there should be wrestling people in the room. trump is not out there as a serious human being let alone a serious candidate for the presidency. >> right. agree with a lot of what you just said. and let's look at donald trump. this is not new. him accusing his opponent of doing drugs, using performance enhancing drugs, getting a shot in the ass before debate. he did this with joe biden in 2020. he did it with hillary clinton in 2016. it is a bizarre tick of his. he know he's a creature of habit and he was a big boxing fan back in the day so some of this might be harkening back to the smack talk that you have before big boxing matches. but putting that aside, i think what -- to your point about what is more important, the substance or the style, agree that style here is going to be really important for both of them. and for joe biden, he's just going to meet the low bar of showing up and being present, somewhat vigorous. with donald trump, it is a little bit different. right. my concern as a democrat is that a lot of people are going to expect the unhinged donald trump. the donald trump that you spoke about in your introto show up. and there is a lot of indications that that might not be the donald trump who shows up. this election cycle, he has a much more professional disciplined team than he's had in the past. look, it is all relative. and we saw that when he's had big moments before, like the night he won the iowa caucus, a very restrain and dare i say boring donald trump showed up. so there is a chance that that donald trump shows up on the debate stage on thursday. and joe biden and democrats need to be prepared for that. and be prepared for someone who is not going to show up and being a raving lunatic. but what you can do, however, is get him on the record, on the things that we know that will be played in the little sound bites that we were talking about. because most people will not be watching the debate in full. they'll be seeing clips on tiktok and with friends that are sharing on social media and we know what the key issues are going to be. it is going to be getting donald trump, trapping him into saying some of the worst stuff he said about abortion rights, trapping him into saying the worse things he said about the election an january 6. getting him to admit to the facts that he was the reason why republicans tanked our best chance at bipartisan immigration reform in decades. and, yes, that is an issue of substance. and i do think it is really important that while we do focus on style, we do have to understand that joe biden has vulnerabilities with the electorate on two key issues. one is the economy and to what david said, he's got to show he's going to be a fighter for the middle class, but on the issue of immigration, that is one of the key issues for voters in these swing states and i do think as someone who advised tom souzzi and new york three, that this is a golden opportunity for joe biden to do something that he hasn't yet. which is to put donald trump on the defensive on this issue and show that he is the person that is stoking chaos at the border, not joe biden and that is a good way to flip the script on an issue where democrats are on the back heel right now. >> let me show some of what donald trump -- i like that -- hey who shows up. this is some of the donald trumps that have shown up in the past. let me play this for all of you. >> you want to call him, do you want to call him. >> proud boys. >> proud boys, stand become and stand by. >> i'm not here to call out his lies. i want to make sure. [ multiple speakers ] >> mr. president, you could let him finish sir. >> he doesn't know how to do that. >> my social security payroll contribution will go up as will donald's figuring he can't figure out how to get out of it. we want to replenish it. >> such a nasty woman. >> because woe rather have a puppet as a president. >> no puppet, no puppet. >> you're the puppet. >> it is pretty clear that you wouldn't admit that russia -- >> i'm just thinking about debate prep and i'm thinking about, you know, the moment that you can't plan for. and the state of the union speech is the right parallel that hillary clinton draws. and she's right to point out this is a response to the hecklers. but it is also to what liz is saying, the response in the room to immigration when the republican senator is sort of nodding and proving as a fact check on joe biden's side against the republicans in the room. i guess, if there is one fact to get through is that joe biden is going to do a republican bill on immigration and donald trump killed it. but the rest of it feels like an ability to stand up to a bully. how do you sort of prep for that in the moment-ness. >> well it is very hard to prep for the moment-ness. you have to lean on the natural abilities of the candidate and i think joe biden has shown that he has some natural abilities to go off the cuff and do that in a way most of the time. i'm not saying all of the time. there have been some instances where he hasn't done it well. but most of the time he does it well. i don't think you need to choose this -- it is a false choice to say style or substance. i think you show strength and show what competence by the substance you talk about. including immigration. and i agree a thousand percent with liz on this. i'm surprised that the democrats and joe biden hasn't used immigration as proactive in this. not that they're going to win the issue on this. but actually put donald trump and the republicans on the defensive in the course of this debate. but i think you show your strong by having command of the substance and show what the american people. but i think fundamentally, when all is said and done, i think what joe biden needs to relate, and he needs to give voters a permission structure, and not say this directly, you may have questions about my age or you may not like me. but every day i'm working on my administration -- my administration is working on behalf of you every single day. and by the way, i'm doing more for trump voters than donald trump has ever done in the course of this. and donald trump over there is not doing anything any day of the week that helps anybody but himself. and i think by talking substance and showing his strength, he has to be able to say, you know, you may not like me, but i'm working every day on your behalf and you may not always agree with me, but that is any north star. donald trump's north star is himself. >> why not say something about the age? why not hang a lantern around your own problem and just you know knock it out as an issue. >> well, i think he could do it. if i spent you know 15 minutes, i could come up with kind of a funny line on this and in the course of this. i've always thought about the choice here and i'm not saying he would say this, but the choice here is the choice if you have to -- nicolle, if you want someone to house sit your home and you two elderly man between your choice and you have to pick one, one, this guy named joe biden who is elderly, he may forget to turn the porch light off and he may take a nap or two. but he's going to water your plants and feed your dog. donald trump, the house sitter, will kill your plants, sell your furniture, and kill your dog and probably let the burglars in so he could split the profits on whatever the burglar is going to get. that is the choice between two older people that will sit your house. somebody forgets the porch light and someone that will sell your furniture and kill your dog. >> that is a -- that is a -- all right. no one is going anywhere. i want to -- i want to put -- you don't have 15 minutes but almost. so work on that line, matt. still to come. there is an eerie quiet among the most maga right-wing extremists. people believe it is because they've invented a new lie. it is not good news. they now believe that donald trump cannot lose. if he does lose, it is because the election was rigged. of course, none of this is true. but it is the potential risk to domestic and national security are very real. and despite what the ex president said, corporate america are not exactly on board with another trump white house. we'll explain. and later in the broadcast, the judge overseeing the new york criminal trial that found the ex-president guilty on 34 felony counts related to his first presidential run in 2016, said donald trump will not be free to publicly speak out against the witnesses who testified against him. one of those witnesses will join us, michael cohen will be here on the ramifications of loosening donald trump's gag order. all of those stories and more coming up. don't go anywhere. fect. new parodontax active gum repair breath freshener. clinically proven to help reverse the four signs of early gum disease. a new toothpaste from parodontax, the gum experts. 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[ speaking minionese ] yippee! and see "despicable me 4" in theaters july 3rd. rated pg. well there has been a trend since the may 30th guilty verdict in the new york case. the movement is among independents and they have moved in recent polls roughly 9 points towards biden. and remember, 21% of independents in a survey shortly after the conviction said that they were less likely to vote for donald trump as a result of the conviction. >> we're back with david, matt and liz. there was something, david plouffe, that one of the republicans running against trump in the primary said to me and it was that even trump has seen the same polling that his opponents in the primary had seen and that is what karl rove just said, that a conviction does damage him. that is why he worked on the mar-a-lago case and the chutkan case to delay. but it wasn't possible in new york. and i wonder to that trend specifically, do the facts that there are more independents than they were four and eight years ago, how does biden build on that? >> well, again, i think that the debate is by far between now and when people started voting, this debate is the biggest opportunity. and i want to double back for a minute. strength is important throughout the entire debate. so when you're talking about dem