caucuses it starts counting. republicans will start choosing candidates in a campaign after everyone you see here and a few you don't, have been the front-runner or the front-runner -- or may soon become the front-runner. some of these boxes may soon be empty. politico's roger simon said iowa caucuses don't pick winners, they eliminate losers. a lot of people could continue on from here even if they don't place well. a loser here may take new hampshire. someone else could win south carolina and yet another may win florida. it's just been that kind of a campaign. the polls here reflect it. take a look. the latest from the "des moines register," mitt romney and ron paul in a statistical tie. rick santorum close behind. newt gingrich fourth and fading. rick perry fifth and climbing slowly. michele bachmann in single digits. that poll came out over the weekend. arg showed romney in front. paul, santorum and gingrich essentially tied for second. it won't be dull and every move matters. >> reporter: at this stage in the race, there's no room for error. >> it's a wide open race. people have been watching the debates. and they're looking for the perfect candidate. >> reporter: mitt romney leading in the national polls, all but ignoring iowa until the last few weeks. his late focus might be paying off. keeping expectations low, but a win now a very real possibility. >> this president's failed. he went on the "today" show shortly after being inaugurated and he said if,fy can't get this as a one-term proposition. i'm here to collect. >> reporter: ron paul spent the past ten days fighting back against questions of controversial newsletters with his name on them. still, mr. paul supporters among most dedicated in iowa and could be the difference in a victory here. >> if liberty is the most important issue, the most important responsibility of government is to protect liberty. and not to be the policeman of the world and not to have a runaway welfare state. >> i do have a hawkeye jacket on. >> reporter: but if anyone has the momentum in these final days, it's former pennsylvania senator rick santorum. he's spent months in iowa. visited all 99 counties and held more than 350 events. today his small staff, campaign headquarters in des moines working the phone. they're trying to capitalize on his sudden surge. trying to ensure that santorum supporters actually show up to caucuses. >> i'm asking you to not settle for someone who, as your nominee, who might be able to win the election, but the election would be a puric victory. in other words, we wouldn't have a candidate who is going to be elected president who will do what's necessary of what america needs. >> reporter: surge comes mostly from evangelicals and takes away the traction from newt gingrich. leading the state just a month ago but relentless attacks from his opponents seemingly having an effect. >> we've gotten into a really sick system. where people raise lots of money to hire nasty people to run vicious commercials. it is sickening the whole process. >> reporter: it's been a volatile race for months with various candidates jumping to the lead only to fade weeks later. michele bachmann, who won the ames straw poll just four months ago, tonight seems far back in the pack. the same for one-time front-runner governor rick perry, hoping for a last-minute push in a caucus that can be as unpredictable as this race so far. >> and, of course, what happens here in iowa matters but it also doesn't matter. i think back to 2008. it was mike huckabee who won here in the state in the gop caucuses back then. rick santorum has been comparing himself to mike huckabee, surging in the polls just in the last few days. over the four days "the des moines register" poll was taken, his numbers significantly began to increase. again, it all remain up to who actually comes out, who goes to those caucuses tomorrow night. santorum is trying to get as many people -- his hard core supporters to attend those events. traditionally a lot may depend on the weather. let's take a look back at 2008 and the field this year. john king is standing by. john, for santorum to be saying he could be like huckabee, it's good for iowa. doesn't mean necessarily he has life beyond here. >> it would make him at the moment the conservative alternative to mitt romney. that is what rick santorum wants us to be saying around this time tomorrow night. let's go back and look at iowa. this is 2008 general election. let's look at the republican caucus. this is hike huckabee, the orange in the middle. . we see senator santorum filling in part of the state tomorrow night, that means he could object his way to victory. you have conservative christian, evangelical voters. they were the key to huckabee four years ago. he won iowa 35% of the vote. mitt romney had 25%. he won in the eastern part of the state, davenport, cedar rapids and dubuque and won in the west, the key area to watch for mitt romney. this is a more conservative part of the state out here. if romney is doing well out here, he could be on the way to winning iowa. the big question is, can he keep conservative voters? this is evangelical country. one new thing in this campaign we don't know, this is the first presidential election where we know the tea party is a force in the republican party. the darker the color, if it's darker green or almost black, these are areas of iowa where voters have said i identify with the tea party. a lot of evangelical party four years ago, a lot of tea party voters as well. evangelical and tea party voters come together around one candidate or are they fractured, split? that's what mitt romney is hoping for. one of the things you want to see here, candidate visits often make the difference. mitt romney has been in the state the least. santorum has visited all 99 counties. which will emerge tomorrow night, old fashioned or mitt romney relying on support. one last thing i would like to show you is tv ad count. governor perry, struggling right now, has up to today, his color the orange, bought the most ads in iowa. will that work for him? you see romney and gingrich roughly in second there. anderson, the key question i want to go back to that initial graphic we had, the key question is this. can the evangelical voters come together, will they come together around one candidate or will it be split between santorum, perry, bachmann, even ron paul? if there's a fractured vote, romney benefits. if they decide to coalesce as they did around mike huckabee, santorum could do strong, some think he could even win. >> john, appreciate it. fascinating. we'll talk to you shortly. i want to bring in our political panel, also braving the icy temperatures in des moines. donna brazell and mary matalin, fascinating, down to the wire as it often is. what do you think is behind the santorum surge? in "the des moines register poll", it really is in the last two days his numbers increased dramatically. >> i think the cnn poll is behind the santorum surge. i talked to a lot of campaigns and pollsters outside who saw him trickling up, crowds greeg, but after the cnn poll all of a sudden it spiked up dramatically. part of it i wonder is it psychospsych psychosomatic. >> is that, mary, part of it, is that he's the last guy that hasn't bennet front-runner and hasn't had the attack ads against him? he's the last guy standing? >> yes, charlie cook, who's by all equations the best of the handicappers says he's the remainder man. people on the campaign say the surge has stopped. so -- and he has -- he had problems coming in and those problems will come out. so, the typical -- nothing's typical this year but the late surge here, the fluidity typically goes to the late surger. but he's really not surging, according to people on the ground anymore. so, it's -- it's -- you know, we're still going down to the wire. >> donna, if you were mitt romney you don't mind santorum surge in iowa. it keeps conservative field divided. >> that's absolutely right. rick santorum has been here for many, many months, campaigned in all 99 counties. he's probably identified with people who will go to the caucuses tomorrow night, stand up, serve as surrogates. i think there's something real behind this momentum. only because the republicans are still sorting out, looking for an alternative to romney. right now santorum is the flavor of the week. >> how much does organization matter here in this final 24 hours? getting people to actually go to the caucuses. -- i was at santorum's headquarters and there were some very young people on the phones and -- that's about it. >> some of the nontraditional campaigns, the cain campaign, gingrich campaign, thought on going on national media, book tours would compel people to go to the polls. then campaigns like perry and paul and romney who are saying, we need to have a ground game, who have spent time organizing in a way santorum until recently nor gingrich have had the money, time on or reverses to do. >> caucuses, it's not just people going in and voting. have you people talking for candidates, talking about the candidates. the better organized fields actually send in people. >> it's necessary but insufficient. it's necessary if it's closing in a tie because an organization will make the difference. but the sufficiency requires momentum. if it's not showing in the polls, the opposite is showing. romney has more momentum here than is being reflected in the polls. momentum plus organization, i think, is the equation -- >> do you think romney will win here? >> if -- it doesn't matter. paul and santorum or victors but he will do better than expected. particularly given the fact he didn't play here till late, he's doing better already than -- >> and he ran before. he had an organization in place. also remember, independents can go tomorrow to the republican caucus, sign a form, register and declare their support for romney. >> democrats can re-register, right? >> absolutely. >> they can also go for paul, the wild card factor. >> as a democrat, what are you hoping for here tonight? i assume an obama supporter, what are you hoping for? >> well, obama have people on the ground. they're organizing tomorrow for the democratic caucus. he has to win the democratic nomination. he's on the post. i'm hoping the obama campaign will outorganize republicans to show they're ready to win the state. >> the democrats who are here, and obama have sent in people to monitor people what's going on, they have their own war room set up, i read that in "the times" today, what are they looking for, best organization on the ground? ? >> is perry still alive? right now their focus is clearly on mitt romney because they think he has momentum. he has the money to go beyond the iowa caucuses. >> and the polls he's most capable of beating president obama at this point. >> that's just a theory. we'll see. >> has a lot to do with name i.d. as well. >> how much life is there for other candidates? someone on our air the other night was saying some can foraging off the land, they don't need a big organization to continue to stay in the race, whether or not they have a chance to win it. >> they don't. this is preseason this year. we have proportional delegations. you'll only get ten delegates out of new hampshire and iowa. you get 75 out of south carolina and florida. some 400, 500 in one election. >> the significance of that is that it could be a long -- >> after barack obama people thought he would be the nominee in 2008. you had kentucky, west virginia, a number of states that went for hillary clinton. he got the nomination but dragged it out. >> i think we're different. as much as the process is different, we don't know because we've never had front-loaded proportionality. we're still republicans and we like order. if mitt romney is knocking it out by the time we get to florida, it will be hard for other contenders to justify -- >> is it possible it could be essentially over tomorrow if romney has -- >> if it's a blowout. >> if it's a blowout. eric is absolutely right. have you a situation on the republican side where the bulk of the delegates will not be chosele until march, april. it could play itself out. you need an alternative to romney and conservatives have to get behind one candidate. >> obama and hillary were evenly matched. this is not -- this is going to sever the men from the boys in the next couple contests. >> we still have a woman in the race. >> i said that generic ily. >> we'll check in with our panel in a little bit. we also have paul and others coming in. we'll check back with all of them. let us know what you think. we're on facebook, google plus, add to us your circles, on twitter@andersoncooper. i'll try to tweet but my hands are freezing. mitt romney is saying we're going to win this thing. exactly what thing was he talking about? we'll tell you that. a surprising mission from newt gingrich, talking about his own ch chances tomorrow. santorum is under fire for some of what he said but also taking heat from ron paul who's calling him too liberal. we'll explain as our coverage continues. nyquil (stuffy): hey, tylenol. you know we're kinda like twins. tylenol: we are? nyquil (stuffy): yeah, we both relieve coughs, sneezing, aches, fevers. tylenol: and i relieve nasal congestion. nyquil (stuffy): overachiever. anncr vo: tylenol cold multi-symptom nighttime relieves nasal congestion... nyquil cold & flu doesn't. ♪ [ female announcer ] if whole grain isn't the first ingredient in your breakfast cereal, what is? now, in every box of general mills big g cereal, there's more whole grain than any other ingredient. that's why it's listed first on the side. from honey nut cheerios to cinnamon toast crunch to lucky charms, get more whole grain than any other ingredient... without question. just look for the white check. you really want to be careful, you can't use something as abrasive as a toothpaste because it will cause scratches. as a result of those scratches, bacteria will get lodged in that denture and as they multiply in the mouth the odor can get stronger. i always advise my patients to use polident. it has specific agents in it that can kill bacteria. using polident daily, you definitely will not be creating the scratches. you're going to have a fresh bright smile, and you're going to feel confident. sounded like a stunning show of confidence. mitt romney turns out to be not quite as we showed you at the top of the hour. he stands as narrow front-runner. late polling here. by no means assured a victory. earlier this evening he sounded like a man clearly predicting a win tomorrow. listen. >> we're going to win this thing with all of our passion and strength and do everything we can to get this campaign on the right track to go across the nation and to pick up other states and to get the balance i need, the votes i need to become our nominee. >> sounds like a clear departure from the cautious tone he was telling. romney reporter said only referred to winning nomination, not a victory tomorrow. newt gingrich is losing some swagger. referring to tomorrow he came out and said today, quote, i don't think i'm going to win. earlier today he said he might and just a few weeks ago he said he expected to win it all, to be the republican nominee. what a short, strange trip it has been. here's gary tuchman. >> reporter: as newt gingrich started this final full campaign day before the iowa caucuses -- >> mr. gingrich, do you still think the caucuses are winnable? >> sure. >> reporter: he expressed confidence he could still leave iowa victorious. later his opinion evolved. >> i don't think i'm going to win. i think you look at the numbers, i think that volume of negativity has done enough damage. >> reporter: the former history professor and speaker of the house has loudly and proudly stated he will not run a negative campaign. but a change is looming. >> do you tweak your campaign message after iowa? >> sure. i think you'll see us wednesday morning in new hampshire being much clearer about the choice between a conservative and a moderate. >> reporter: and newt gingrich says that moderate is mitt romney, the man he blames for most of the negative campaigning against him. >> he's given me no choice except to make clear the difference in the two of us because i would have been perfectly happy to run a totally positive campaign and never mentioned it. he's made that impossible. >> reporter: gingrich is clearly angry, but on the stump at an agricultural museum in independence, iowa, he stays professorial and monotone. >> if you won't show your ad to your grandchildren, don't run it. >> reporter: gingrich's own grandson was by his side, in this case, inside the wheel well of big bud, what is said to be at 14 feet tall, the largest tractor in the world. an ideal back drop in a state where agriculture is so important. >> my position on ethanol is very simple. if i choose the next $1 billion going to iran or iowa, i pick iowa. >> reporter: while campaigning, gingrich took time to plug his wife's history book, which features an elephant as the main character. >> we actually have ellis the elephant here this afternoon. it is his only visit to iowa this trip. >> reporter: children were encouraged to take pictures with the character, notably an elephant and not a donkey. gingrich seems to have accepted the likelihood he will not win in iowa but he rests his hope for a good showing of of voters who are unsure, voters who see the light to come home to him. newt gingrich says he doesn't need to be president. >> this is exciting. it's interesting. it's fascinating. but it's not -- it's not at the center of my being. it's the center of my duty. >> reporter: he does believe the country needs him. gary tuchman, cnn, independence, iowa. dig deeper with chief political correspondent candy crowley, david gergen, who is sensibly somewhere else warm. there's been a lot of talk about how these attack ads have hurt newt gingrich. he did not have the money to respond, right? >> he didn't. i mean, also, you know, what you do is you have a campaign debit, you try to turn it into an asset. he didn't have enough money to respond pound for pound to what he was getting hit with because this was an outside group as well as ron paul was also doing negative ads. he couldn't respond pound for pound. he wasn't until recently even responding on the campaign trail. he tried to turn it into a positive. boy, don't we all hate those negative ads? if you hate negative ads, you better go to the caucuses and vote for me. so, it was a combination of things. i mean, it became a campaign strategy but it was a campaign necessity. he didn't have the money to do it. >> david, as much as one hopes campaign ads don't work, clearly they do, at least in this case. >> they sure did. i don't think he saw it coming. anderson, he told me back in december, he fully expected to be fully vetted by the media. he thought that vetting would be tough on him. the big question is, would he be standing in early january. i don't think he foresaw the onslaught of negative ads coming from within the republican party. he's clearly furious about that. i do think he's going to be much, much tougher as he goes -- heads towards south carolina. he knows he's in the second tier now. one of the interesting questions is, will his anger be so intense coming out of this that, in fact, he may really want to inflict real damage on mitt romney as a potential nominee of the party. >> candy, in terms of -- how does this race differ from others you've covered thus far? i mean -- >> it's -- i mean, first of all, it's far more fluid. throughout the year -- >> everybody's been a front-runner. >> everybody got their shot. now it appears to be rick santorum's shot and maybe jon huntsman in new hampshire. beyond that, it's still fluid. 40 -- 41% say, i could b