christine romans will show you why iowa voters may not be asking the same questions as you. let's go ahead and begin with jim in west des moines. you've been with rick santorum almost 24/7. you do let the guy sleep. what's that been like? >> reporter: it has been amazing to watch, kyra. who would have thought when all of this got start that had we would be chasing rick santorum around in the final 24 hours before the iowa caucuses that the international press, he had the japanese, the german and the french, the british press all tailing him yesterday and testifies drawing some very big crowds partly because he is sort of the last alternative to mitt romney to emerge in this process because a lot of evangelical voters in the state have finally said, you know what, let's go with rick santorum inside this high school gymnasium later on this morning along with michele bachmann and ron paul to make some final arguments as a rock the caucus forum here in west des moines. so we're going to hear rick santorum sort of give his closing argument. we're all going to be watching to see what he has to say. don't forget mitt romney is still the man to beat in the state right now if you look at the latest "des moines register" poll. he's the one on top. he was sounding very confident at events across iowa yesterday, predicting that he will win these iowa caucuses. and then newt gingrich, it's interesting, yesterday he was saying, well, you know what, after everything i've been through in the state, it hasn't been very pleasant, i might not win the iowa caucuses. it was sort of remarkable to hear newt gingrich say that. but then earlier this morning on cnn he said, you know what, i might win this thing after all. >> i think it's going to be a very big turnout tonight and i think a lot of people are going to walk in still trying to decide what's the right thing for america and what's the right thing they want to do as iowans to start this process. so i think we could win. we were, after all, up by 13 points. and i think there are probably four of us in a position to win this come late tonight. >> reporter: so these iowa caucuses will pose some very interesting questions for republicans. if mitt romney somehow wins the iowa caucuses, and it's not a very big stretch that he won't or will, basically had is going to be a man who is going to be very hard to stop. if he goes into hnew hampshire and then wins that, he'll have a two-fer under his belt and it will be mitt romney's republican party. unless somebody can stop him. if he doesn't win the iowa caucuses, who is it who is on top? is it rick santorum? is he now the new un-romney? the new alternative to mitt romney heading into these other contests he says he's going to compete in places like new hampshire and south carolina. he doesn't have the resources to do so. or will it be newt gingrich? can he mount a comeback? rick perry. it's so up in the air. that's what makes this fun to watch. we really just don't know coming into the final hours who will come out on top. >> all right. i know. we're going to be paying close attention, jim, and talking a lot more. thanks so much. let's talk about the bachmann, paul, and persony campaigns. paul steinhauser is in des moines for us. let's talk with ron paul who surged in recent weeks. what's he doing to mobilize his followers today? >> reporter: here's the thing about ron paul. he will be out on the campaign trail today. he'll be at that rock the vet event jim is at rye now in west des moines. everybody says that ron paul has the best ground game here. you've seen it from the white house as well. he has energetic followers devote devoted, energetic people who come to caucuses regardless of what's going on. and for ron paul, he would like to win here. sure he would. if he comes in second and third, he's continuing on. this man may go all the way to the convention in tampa in august. that's kind of ron paul's situation. he would like to win, but if he doesn't, he is going to march on regardless. rick perry, the texas governor, spent a lot of money here. his campaign has spent more money on ads, to put up ads on iowa tv than any other candidate. he's still in the low double digits. he would like to finish in third place but a fourth place finish may still be enough for him to continue on. i think you'll see him go right to south carolina tomorrow and also hit new hampshire as well at the end of the week for those debates. bachmann, that is the big question mark. you heard last hour with soledad say i'm moving on regardless. i don't know, if she finishes in the single digits, the low single digits, it's tough. it's tough for her to move on. she doesn't have a lot of money. her campaign doesn't have a lot of money. >> what's your sense about other issues that might impact the turnout tonight? >> reporter: a good question. it is decision day here, right? you can see right here from the "des moines register" newspaper decision day. what to look for, well, first of all the weather. and christine romans can tell you, she was a native here, it's cold. it's supposed to be cold. look, there is no snow. christine, where's the snow? it isn't here. that could be important. a nice weather tonight and that's what we're supposed to be, no snow really, can help the turnout and candidates who don't have those devoted followers and the other thing is the turnout. 118,000 went to the caucuses four years ago on the republican side. let's see if that goes higher. that will be an indication how republicans are really, really ready to try to beat president barack obama in november. remember, this is a battleground state, kyra. >> yes, it is. you'll be there battling it out. christine, we're going to get right to it. usually you are our money gal with your best-selling books and advice on what to do with our financials but you're my sweet iowan as well. paul wants you to tell us about the weather. we'll do that last. >> weather girl, too. >> she does it all. but when you were home you were telling me, and it's interesting, it played right off what we just heard from paul, everybody was talking about ron paul. even your 18-month-old. >> my niece has seen him so much she goo-goos and ga-gas. they are inundated by all the advertising spending, all of this hoopla around these candidates. and what's interesting this time is they're not settled. iowans aren't settled. usually by now i'm seeing yard signs everywhere. i always see the ron paul yard signs and people are trying to figure out who they want to support and asking each other, they're asking me over and over again, what are you hearing? what do you think? what are people telling you what about the tax policy of so and so? they're asking questions now down to the wire. >> are we covering it correctly? i know you're watching -- you're not there as a reporter. you were there as being home with the family and neighbors. and so what's the real deal? >> so when you look at polls and the like and you talk about the evangelical vote, when i'm there talking to people, my family and friends, it's not so cut and dried. they're really still changing their ideas. the quote/unquote evangelical vote is looking for a republican candidate but they're also talking about jesus and what we're supposed to be doing to help our fellow man, so they're also talking about safety nets. they're worried about too much government but they're also, how are we taking care of each other if the economy is not going to come right back? there are nuance discussions happening within these circles and it's not this monolithic discussion happening all the time and the other thing about iowa is that the chi is incredibly important, and this feeling that we're not going in the right direction, they don't like that. it's a very can do kind of a place. but by the same token, things are going okay in iowa. >> and we were talking about your grandmother's farm. >> the farm prices. oh, my gosh. $6,000 an acre on average, a record high last year. everyone has been very nice to grandma these days in iowa. anyone with a family farm suddenly you have real money there in that soil and you have real demand and iowans are feeding the world. there's talk about globalization, about taxes, what these candidates will do, and it really, really matters to a lot of people. >> before i let you go, and on the other side of things -- i remember this because i put windows in my home, you talk to folks there and they do want to hear what the candidates have to say about job creation because they've been losing jobs since houses haven't been built like in the past. pella is suffering. >> and manufacturing has been the sore spot for iowa and the rest of the country like all the other midwest rust belt places. anything that has to do with a tractor, they're hiring and building. anything to do with agriculture is doing well. yes, you're right. that part of the economy there, people are struggling and people are very -- big maytag plant that closed in newton but you're looking at signs of life again in newton a few years later. not clear what it was before, but trying to recover in a globalized new kind of economy. >> learn how to build a tractor, is what it sounds like. >> agriculture has really been a powerhouse there. that's been a big help. >> great to see you. stick around. i love talking politics. >> you'll be seeing me. >> thanks, christine. tonight the country's first real votes, the first true test takes place in the iowa caucuses. watch it happen, special live america's choice 2012 coverage from the iowa caucuses at 7:00 p.m. eastern on cnn. up next, we're turning two of our political buzz players into fortune tellers. they're going to give us their predictions on tonight's iowa caucuses. also, the arson fires in southern california have stopped s. police arrested this man and say that he's the one who started them. but who is he and what set him off? 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[ male announcer ] get the venture card at capitalone.com and earn double miles on every purchase every day. what's in your wallet? cover for me. i have an audition. we're pretty used to the verbal fireworks. we do expect some debate but this morning we want the predictions. let's start with iowa caucuses. and now you have me all screwed up. dana, why do you keep changing your name? it's driving me crazy. do you have her name straight? maybe we should debate that. >> this is the first i've heard of this problem. >> okay, your predictions on the caucuses tonight? >> i think it's romney will probably win iowa. ron paul is in a strong second place and santorum has a surge. >> i need a prediction. come on now. go out on a limb. >> i need my crystal ball. where is my cnn crystal ball? i'm in studio. >> if you had to go with your gut, you're thinking romney? >> romney, from my gut, will probably take iowa. >> will, what do you think? >> i'm going to back into this, kyra. i think predictions are a fool's game but i'm going to give you one. >> that's not good. >> first of all, a lot of people don't understand how a caucus works. tonight some 100,000 withiowa republicans are going to go out to church basements and community centers and talk and debate and persuade for their candidate and then a blank sheet of paper and write down a name. so let me give you three factors that helps each of the three. the republican field is prone to momentum, tides going in and out and right now the tide is going in for rick santorum. ron paul has a ton of very persuasive certificate ga surrogates. that could help ron paul. the 40% will see the electability issue with mitt romney, that he is far and away seen as the most electable and i'm going to predict mitt romney. >> okay. bottom line, no argument there. we have just prevented one fight. why don't we talk about the impact that the iowa results will have on the future of the tea party movement. what do you think? >> this has been kind of a struggle i've seen grassroots go through. they're trying so desperately to find that non-romney candidate, and they've been playing musical politicians for the past several months. people were excited about michele bachmann. she was little known outside of the grassroots movement. she is still relatively new. then everyone went to herman cain and the 9-9-9, newt gingrich and now rick santorum is the non-romney. whoever ends up winning iowa, i don't think it will have a huge standing overall or huge effect on how all of grassroots across the country reacts. i think a lot of individuals will be disappointed if it's someone like mitt romney because it's a very controversial figure within the tea party movement. so it's difficult to say. i'm look iing forward to south carolina and florida. >> will? >> actually i have a question for dana on that front as well. i don't think the tea party is exclusively focused exclusive about the presidential election and she has talked about that. there's a huge election going on at the same time next year. i do wond earp what the influence of the tea party will be. i think mitt romney is on the inevitable path to the republican nomination. so then what happens? does the tea party just fall in line and support mitt romney versus barack obama or is there a possibility or a threat of a third party tea party candidate somewhere down the line? i have to wonder that. i don't know the answer. >> and that's a good point, too. discussing who the presidential nominee is going to be, if it's someone like, say, mitt romney, and i know a lot of people really want to go ahead and throw their hat in the ring and say it's definitely going to be mitt romney, which i don't think so. we still have time. the house and senate races get so little attention and there needs to be more focus on congress, frankly. it's not to say the presidency isn't important but the presidency in this particular election, in my opinion, is not more important than the congressional races with the focus on house and senate. if we have a moderate candidate the in the white house but we have a strong conservative house and senate, that's going to circumvent any sort of rhino moves that this moderate candidate would make. >> so no third party? >> i think third party is a bad idea and i've always thought as well that any -- the grassroots movement should consume the gop from within and not splinter off, not divide the vote and form a third party. third parties historically aren't successful. >> let's talk new hampshire, shall we? we're going to did he haefinite forward. i know we should be talking a lot about iowa tonight. we're trying to bump -- will, why are you rolling your eyes? >> i lost you guys, kyra. i can't hear you. >> are you with me? are you back with me? can you hear me, will? all right, let's try, because i both want them to respond to this. let's see if we can get connected back to will. all right. so looking ahead to new hampshire, we'll try -- oh, he is back. fantastic. will, you got me? >> i have you now. >> terrific. we're talking about new hampshire, predictions for new hampshire. what do you think? >> mitt romney. it's his backyard. and he's surging right now in the polls in new hampshire. i know jon huntsman has placed all of his chips on new hampshire but i don't think he will take new hampshire. >> and romney has consistency in his favor as well. will, what do you think? >> i think mitt romney is the safe bet in new hampshire. let me say this, git who spent the most time in iowa shaking hands, been to all 9 counties, rick santorum is surging and doing well. the rick santorum version of new hampshire is jon huntsman. he's been there. he hasn't gone to iowa. he's been putting his time in new hampshire. you can see a big jon huntsman surge there. >> thanks, guys. will, appreciate it. nice to see you in person. we'll do it again. and don't forget tonight is the country's first real votes, to take place at the iowa caucuses. watch it happen from all sides, special live coverage at 7:00 eastern tonight. and you know the chase is on for iowa's undecided voters. we will look through the eyes of one iowa kcaucusgoer. plus, winter is back with a vengeance and this is exactly what it can do. police blame it on a 30-car pileup in kentucky. ♪ wouldn't you like to get away? ♪ ♪ ♪ sometimes you want to go where everybody knows your name ♪ ♪ ♪ you want to be where you can see ♪ ♪ our troubles are all the same ♪ ♪ you want to go where everybody knows your name ♪ ♪ let's head cross-country now, talking about the weather all over the country. take a look at cleveland city. much of the upper midwest got pounded by lake effect snow, up to a foot and more in some places. and blame the snow on a 30-car and truck pileup. nobody seriously hurt. and blind iing snow blamed r this accident that shut down interstate 80 in washington township, pennsylvania. nearly two dozen vehicles, many of them big rigs, slammed into each other. several people were taken to the hospital, some with serious injuries. in los angeles the arrest of a man has apparently stopped a series of 52 arson fires since friday and here he is, charged with arson. and if he's proven guilty, the question is why did he do it? what exactly do we know? he has sort of an interesting back story. >> reporter: he sure does, kyra. i want to start out by mentioning that los angeles police chief charlie beck in a news conference last night said it's highly inappropriate and pri premature to speculate about a motive at this point. but what has been reported and what it is clear investigators are looking into is the fact this suspect, harry burkhart, apparently had some dispute with u.s. immigration authorities over the immigration status of his mother. they are clearly looking into that among other possible motives. they are still conducting investigations at many of these arson sites and at a residence here in hollywood believed to be mr. burkhart's residence. so that is ongoing. we can report, also, that he will make his first court appearance tomorrow morning, 8:30 local time, to be arraigned in the los angeles superior court in van nuys area of los angeles. he is being held downtown on no bail. kyra? >> all right, casey, thanks so much. and the other story we're talking about this morning is the new beginning for stocks. the first trading day of 2012. and after a pretty dismal 2011 we're all looking forward to a fresh start. isn't that right alison kosik? it looks like wall street is ready to ring in the new year with a new rally, futures pointing up. opening bell ringing in seven minutes. wall street is focusing on overseas reports they got on manufacturing, they did show improvement and here in the u.s. we are expected to get some manufacturing and construction spending reports as well that are expected to show improvement as well. so overall, as we begin 2012 the first trading day investors focusing on the positive. the bulls look alike. they're going to be taking charge. kyra? >> ali is othanks so much. trying to win over uncommitted voters. mitt romney is hosting a grassroots rally. a full schedule of events today. we will check