change the cost to you for a gallon of gas. if you don't think you're going to see $5 a gallon by summer, the iranians may be telling you to think again. oil prices rose monday to a nine-month high after tehran announced it was cutting off oil exports to britain and france, threatening the same to six other european countries. oil is iran's lifeline. it makes up for 80% of all its exports with the top customers being china, which gets 22% of the crude, the eu, which takes 18%, then japan, 14%. india, 13%. and south korea, 10%. so if those are the customers, why do we care? most of our oil comes from canada, saudi arabia, mexico, venezuela, and nigeria. we care in america because oil is an internationally traded commodity and when the supply is interrupted anywhere, it causes shock waves everywhere and iran knows it. outfront tonight, iran expert ashman of the new america foundation, and former military intelligence officer, paula broadwell. she's also the author of the "all in: the education of general david petraeus." let me start with you, ashman, if i can. how much impact do you think iran is hoping to get from that cutoff of oil from france and great britain. >> this is largely a symbolic move, because britain hasn't been buying oil from iran for over a year. france buys only a modest amount. but as you rightly noted in your intro, when iran does these kind of things, oil prices spike. and the reason oil prices spike is because there's so little spare capacity in global oil markets right now, that oil prices spike on the smallest headlines. iran threatening to close the straight of hormuz, disruptions in south sudan, riots in nigeria. think of the oil market as a drum that's tightly wound, and the smallest thing -- we basically don't have enough room left in that drum. so iran certainly benefits when oil prices spike like this. >> so let me ask you, paula, is this a security concern or purely an economic concern or does it cross over to both for the united states? >> tom, it clearly crosses over to both, but you both put this in important context, that really britain and france don't receive that much iranian oil. for them, it's a sort of saber-rattling initiative. they're posturing and trying to show that they have some power to increase the cost of oil in the international market. but you have to look at where they send most of their oil, and that is to asia. and they are not reducing their sales to asia. in fact, saudi arabia has stepped up to show great leadership and has said publicly and in the news now that they're able to increase their production by 2 million barrels per day to assuage asian concerns over the supply of iranian oil. so it has the -- you know, the global economy, we're all interconnected, and we have to look at how all the countries will be affected by iranian oil supply. but the u.s. is pretty dependent on foreign oil and it does implicate our national security concerns. if you look at how much oil the military uses in these large scale boots on the ground operations, for example. but just our economy to keep it running on a daily basis requires a lot of foreign oil. it's something to consider in the grand scheme of our grand strategy, for sure. >> and tom? >> yes, sir. >> it's worth noting that we as americans, we drive about 3 trillion miles a year. and it's also worth noting that right now, we actually are experiencing record gasoline prices. average gas prices right now are about $3.50. we've never had that high a gasoline price at this time of the year. so most forecasts are looking at the late april/early may, summer driving season going into $4.25, and you mentioned in your intro, $5, that's not unreasonable, certainly if we see a war with-like situation in iran. >> and certainly if we see any other disruptions in the scale of what's happening here. let me ask you something, paula. the underlying tone to all of this is very much a security issue. the cornerstone of all of this is that we're convinced that they're trying to get a nuclear weapon and we don't want them to have it, so we're putting pressure on them, a lot of nations are. let me start with the first question. how close do you think they are to already having this? >> well, analysts both in the u.s. and with our allies in europe and close allies are very concerned about iran's capability to get the nuclear bomb, is israel, obviously. they think iran is about one to two years away from getting the bomb. so i think to bring it back to an earlier point you made, iran is trying to make a signal that they can stand up to this, and concern the world that they will retaliate or that they can send ripples around the globe if we are to attack or strike their nuclear facilities. but the reality is that a strike would only kick the can a little further down the road. they do have a high likelihood of getting the bomb, but what's our response? and a there has been a unified response -- go ahead. >> there has been a unified response in the world. >> if you look at a unified response comes from the u.s., the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, the central leadership, all saying we are not going to stand for this. but the economic pressure we're putting on iran right now is showing some, i think, some success, and i think the europeans are taking this a little bit more seriously, as far as putting more diplomatic and economic pressure on iran to stop. >> let me to come to you with the last question if i can. we've seen this before. when people are under economic constraints, you often see nations do something like they cut off oil supplies, they say, on one hand this, on the other hand, they say, we want to talk about our nuclear supplies, all of which buys time. do you think that what iran is doing right now is aimed at a result, a specific result, or is it all aimed at just this, just keep the shells moving so no one knows exactly where the "p" is and voila, you have a nuclear weapon. >> it's a good point you make, tom, they certainly are trying to buy time. but as paula has noted and others have noted, these sanctions are really hurting the iranian economy. the iranian real has plummeted 30 to 40%. there's not a single multi-national bank that will do business with iran. even dbai and the persian gulf are tightening their iranian business. iranians are having trouble importing steel -- >> i'll have to cut you off there. thanks for being here, paula as well. keep it in mind as your gas price ticks up how this ripple effect is going all around the globe. ew. seriously? that is so gross. ew. seriously? dude that is so totally gross. when we come back, the santorum surge continues. up double digits. when it comes to eating up mitt romney's lead, he's not being conservative at all. under surveillance tonight, target. the big box retailer's bull's-eye is on you. and ahead of the avalanche, a woman survives a deadly snowslide in washington state and we'll show you the amazing product that saved her life. rosi is it safe to get it? but what, so we should go broke with imports? look, i'm just saying. well, energy creates jobs. 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[ male announcer ] ocuvite. help protect your eye health. a brand-new gallup poll shows rick santorum's lead in the republican race for the white house is getting wider. he's now ten points ahead of mitt romney, among republican voters, which means in just a week, santorum has jumped six points and romney has dropped by the same amount. notably, santorum hasn't been gaining traction by focusing on the economy. instead, he's grabbing headlines for everything else. look. >> it's not about your jobs. it's about some phony ideal, some phony theology. oh, not a theology based on the bible. a different theology. but no less a theology. i refer to global warming as not climate science, but political science. yes, prenatal testing, amniocentesis does result more often than not in this country in abortion. that is a fact. >> all our polls, all the people say over and over again they care about the economy. so the question is, with that kind of talk, how real is the santorum threat? outfront now, john avalon, and jamal simmons joining us. jamal, you didn't make it, you were caught in traffic on friday, so you didn't make it, so i'll give you the first question today. look, how happy are you to see rick santorum beating up on mitt romney? >> well, it's -- i think it's good for the republican party. no, seriously. i think watching the two of them go at each other is what this whole debate is going to be about, from the conservative evangelical republican stream to the more moderate business-oriented republicans. you see it nationally. you also see it in places like michigan. it's very interesting. mitt romney in michigan, you know, i'm from detroit, so in detroit, you know, everything is about the palm. detroit's here. santorum does very well out here along your pinky finger, which is where the christian conservatives are, and mitt romney does very well over here outside of detroit, where all the wealthy people are. and that is the place around the country i think you're seeing those lines continue around the country. >> all right. jamal, you're not going to take the bait here. so let me turn to john. john, what do you think about that? is he for real? can he win? >> he can win the nomination. i mean, and look, democrats want to make some popcorn, because this is a fun fight to watch from their perspective. but the problem is, i think, actually, the republican party's starting to see -- they're reaping what they sew. when they burn down the big tent and purge the right, part of the problem is a candidate like rick santorum can throw a lot of red meat rhetoric on social issues and do very well in low-turnout, high-intensity primaries. but that does not necessarily translate to being a good general election candidate. that's one of the things republicans need to resolve. >> what about you? >> the electorate is moving a bit slower than the elites who are following the election very closely. for example, in 2004, john edwards really picked up steam, but he only picked up steam after john kerry really had locked it down. so, similarly, here, we're seeing a situation where rick santorum is doing fairly well with primary voters while a lot of people at the center of the action are seeing a lot of his vulnerabilities. >> you raise an interesting point here, because all along, i've looked at the polls. this is what you can say about mitt romney. he has pretty consistently stied at this sort of higher level. and first it was herman cain, then it was newt gingrich, and now maybe it's rick santorum. they spike up from down low, they dominate for a while, but they can't hold it. what do you think? can they hold it? that speaks to two different dynamics. >> romney is an unusually weak front-runn front-runner. eventually romney can become a bumper sticker. someone will make a lot of money off that. but he's got the money and organization to really withstand the various fluctuations. and this surge of support is followed by a fall in partisan support, part because of going negative on him. and many of them can not sustain. i think it does speak to romney. he has some real organizational strengths, but he has some real weaknesses. that's why these other candidates keep surging. one thing ryan said i have to take issue, mitt romney does not have this locked down. if he were to lose michigan, his home state -- >> i definitely don't mean to imply that he has it locked down. what i mean to say is that a lot of santorum's vulnerabilities that are catching on with people who are focusing on the election very closely, it hasn't caught on with voters who see still see him as a happy warrior, rather than someone who is a huge k street enforcer. >> jamal, there's a sort of rumble out there that the democrats are beginning to triangulate rick santorum and go after him, at the same time, i hear democrats saying, oh, i would love it to be rick santorum, because we can beat him. if you can beat him so easily, why are you triangulating? >> it's a little bit of whack-a-mole. every time one of these people pops up, you want to knock them down. you don't want them to gain so much steam that they start thinking about them. rick santorum has ideas that are so far outside of the mainstream, not just where the democrats are, but particularly independent women, where democrats really need to make a case, that you don't really want him to build up a head of steam. and right now you are seeing this fight take place. the one difference between santorum and romney, i have to say this, and hillary and obama in 2008, is that hillary and obama have very strong bases in their parties. they have devoted people who are behind them. you don't see that kind of devotion for any of these republican candidates. >> oh, i don't -- maybe not for the candidates, but for the idea of conservative. i'm going to wrap it up pretty quickly. let me ask you a quick question. what's the good news in all of this for mitt romney, if there is any good news? >> i think there is no root -- no good news for mitt romney in all of this. >> nothing good in all of this? >> yeah, i think that even he's eroding in arizona, eroding in all of these places that should have been his firewalls. it's very bad. >> john? >> he needs to plant a flag and say you know what? i am the most electable candidate. i can bring the independents into the tent if you give me a chance, but instead he's hitting rick santorum, calling him a rino. that doesn't even pass the laugh test. >> in name only. >> he's resorting to that kind of color -- >> reinan, john, jamal, thank you all for being here. we'll be talking about this more, i'm sure, before november. join us at 8:00 p.m. wednesday for a lot more talk about it at the arizona republican presidential debate, moderated by our own john king. you don't want to miss it. tonight, in our "under surveillance" segment, the big business of big brother. the next time you go shopping, there's a chance the store knows what you want long before you walk through the door. this is kind of spooky, when you think about it. cashing in on your consumer habits is nothing new, of course. but there's one chain that is reportedly taking it to a whole new level. target. "the new york times" magazine made some strong allegations this weekend with an article on how the chain uses credit cards, surveys, and a guest i.d. number to find out just about every facet of your life. "the times" says the store uses algorithms to know whether someone is getting a new job or even having a baby, and then sends coupons tailor-made for that occasion. personalizing your shopping experience, is that what this is really about? outfront tonight, cnn legal contributor, paul callan joins us. paul, this sounds kind of spooky. what do you think? >> well, it's another example of sort of big brother in the private sector. it's amazing how much they know about us. and to think that target has developed an algorithm that can figure out when a woman's pregnant when nobody knows but she. it's truly amazing. but i think it's a future that we're facing. technology's become so sophisticated that they're able to figure out buying habits and make predictions. >> let me take you beyond target here. by the way, target said about this article that they weren't so keen on this. they felt like a lot of this -- the information was false, it was misleading to people, target really did not like -- we tried to call them today, they told the "the times," they didn't like this information out there. but let's go beyond that poll. what about the general -- there's the target response right there. "almost all of your statements contain inaccurate information and on and on. let's look at beyond target, though, paul. is there anything illegal in all of this? we've put this technology in the hands of all sorts of companies to track everything we do. and sometimes it feels kind of invasive, but are they doing anything illegal? >> no, they're not doing anything illegal. what they're doing is, in a very sophisticated way, doing the same thing that macy's and gimble's did, remember in "miracle on 34th street," they're figuring out what consumers like and then they're -- >> paul, are you blaming this on santa claus? you're blaming this on santa claus, aren't you? >> heaven forbid, they'd be on to santa claus, too, if they could. all they're doing is here being very sophisticated about marketing and figuring out what our tendencies are. but here's what scares me, tom, if they can figure out a woman is pregnant, but when can they figure out if she has a sexually transmitted disease or if she is suffering from some kind of disabling condition? and then can they sell that information to employers who maybe wouldn't want to hire her because she's pregnant? >> and frankly, let me tell you something, paul, your profession makes me nervous about this, because i can also see attorneys out there, rubbing their hands, saying, if all of this information is there when a divorce comes up, when a child custody case comes up, they're going to start saying to the courts, you know, i'd like access to that. how about giving me the paperwork i need to get it. >> absolutely, tom. and you know, we've already seen that. in matrimonial litigation, they look at facebook, get access to your e-mails. i litigate business litigation cases. the first subpoena that goes out is for your g-mail account and your business account. so all this information is potentially available to lawyers, to the courts, and to, now, target. >> i love the way you throw out that term, "matrimonial litigation" that's got a warm feeling. >> i hate those guys. >> makes you want to curl up in front of the fireplace. paul, stick around. we'll talk to you later on. there are reports that whitney houston's daughter got high right after the funeral. listen, this kind of stuff goes around all the time in terms of reports. some of it's rumors, some of it's not. but here's a legitimate question, is bobbi kristina headed down the same dangerous path as her mother? and if you haven't noticed, linsanity continues. jeremy lin and the knicks play new jersey tonight, but wait until you hear what he left in the locker room and what it is now worth. stick around. it's hard for my crew to keep up with 2% cash back on every purchase, every day. 2% cash back. that's setting the bar pretty high. thanks to spark, owning my own business has never been more rewarding. 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