good evening, everyone. i'm erin burnett. outfront tonight, we told you so. the economy is doing a lot better. today, the third month in a row of frankly really good job numbers. today's jobs report shows the u.s. added 227,000 jobs last month, and more people felt optimistic enough to actually get back into the labor force. that's why the unemployment rate held firm. now, everyone is increasingly optimistic about the jobs picture in america, something we at "outfront" have been saying for month. our strike team said there wouldn't be a double-dip recession last month, and after the december jobs report, we were all excited when we said this could be president obama's morning in america moment. that was ronald reagan's theme for his victorious 1984 re-election campaign, and last month after the strong january jobs report, we said it again. and we're glad all of the talk about the double-dip is gone, but we're realists and the problem is there are real problems out there. wages are not growing as quickly as inflation. that means the standard of living for average americans is lower today than a year ago. and two, there are pitfalls ahead. and the president sees them, too, though he isn't counting his re-election chickens yet. >> i did not run for this office just to get back to where we were. i ran for this office to get us to where we need to be. >> well, there are some serious pitfalls the economy might plunge into which could send the president's re-election hopes into oblivion. right now, it looks really good for him. one issue we talked a lot about on the hoe is iran. oil prices could go as high as $150 a barrel, according to analysis. now, if that happens, that means gas prices at the pump go to about $5 a gallon. if oil goes as high as $200, which in some analysts' expectations could hannon, even briefly, that would take prices at the pump to $7. that means consumers would get hit hard, and companies get hit hard, and a lot less money for hiring and raises. it would mean a double-dip. conrad is here to talk about the real pitfalls oat out there. let's start with the one about the iranian situation. your concern is you don't need outright conflict to continue to have a real problem with gas. >> if you think about it, the issues we had with libya, oil prices rise, even though there wasn't that significant of an impact on oil supply. there is the risk that even though there isn't a conflict, the concern could make oil prices rise further, and it's a potential significant cost increase for the consumers, and a fairly sizable part of the consumer's budgets, about 6% of consumer spending is on energy. and unfortunately, as you go down the income scale, it's a larger impact on consumers, so lower-income consumers spend more on energy as a part of their budget. >> and it's interesting when you talk about libya a year ago, because at that time, we were talking about that libya was going to be a huge future supplier of oil but not a current one, yet it had a huge impact on the oil prices. libya is still a huge disaster, and everyone is complacent. it puts it in context. you're also concerned about something we have talked about on the show, complete and utter disfunction. the disfunction in the government that caused the country to be down graded. >> there's not a matter if there's gridlock, no impact going into 2013. if there's gridlock, we'll see an increase in the tax rates. the tax cuts of 2003 expire. we have an expiration of the pay roll tax cuts. we have health care reform and increase in dividends, which dividends taxes which could impact the stock market. gridlock in washington is a big problem. we need to see progress on past reform and addressing the potential increase in taxes. >> abysmal what happens in washington. you wonder if they realize how much it hurts the economy. last but not least, the debt problem. half of our debt held by countries overseas. what happens if china simp ly gets back? >> that goes back to the point you made. in the middle of last year, the u.s. dent was downgraded. and one of the reasons was the disfunction in washington. it further downgrades the debt, you could see a situation where foreigners would be less likely to invest as much. i don't think youfr rr going to see foreigners sell, just buy less. and we have very low borrowing rates, which are some of the benchmarks that are based off at about 2%. a year ago, they were 3.5%. if we were to see a pull-back by foreigners, if there wasn't another marginal buyer for treasury securities, you could see interest rates go higher, if we see treasury rates back at 4% by the end of this year, which is what we're expecting, you're talking about mortgage rates in the 6% to 7%, versus 4% right now. >> that's a lot of money. thank you very much, conrad. appreciate it. >> now james carville and rhiann join me. let me start with you, james. first, the good news. your guy, barack obama, i know he's careful how he talks about it, but he's got to be thrilled with the jobs numbers. >> i think they are, and it's very, very good that he's very, very careful. you know, people see this and they are good, but there are still a lot of things in the economy. look, this economy was wrecked by the financial crisis. now we know that coming out of these things is brutal, and very hard. and i think these numbers are in line with this, and people are starting to give him a little built of credit for what's going on. they're seeing some improvement, but it's still, as you point out, a lot of pitfalls and the president has to be careful how he talks about this. >> mitt romney also talked about the jobs numbers today. i find it strange that he harps on the fact that the president said the unemployment rate would never go above 8%, because if it goes below 8%, it's going to be difficult for mitt romney. here is what he finally said when someone asked him about it in jackson, mississippi today. >> don't forget, by the way, this president, how many months ago was it? 37 months ago, told us that if he could borrow $787 billion, almost a trillion dollars, he would keep unemployment below 8%. it has not been below 8% since. this president has not succeeded. this president has failed, and that's the reason we're going to get rid of him in 2012. >> i just have to say, looking through the numbers today, i don't understand why he's harping on the 8%, because if it go business low 8% this year, which it well could, he's going to have to eat his words. he could be harping on the lack of income growth, which is a real issue for americans. why isn't he doing it? >> i think because it's a clear indicator, a clear benchmark, and the problem is, and james is right about this, a picture is very a confusing one, on the one hand, we have strong job numbers. on the other hand, we have weak gdp numbers. so you're right to guess that hey, maybe the unemployment rate could go below 8% which really will confuse the romney message. on the other hand, i imagine his advisers are saying, wait a minute, the gdp numbers look weak enough that it looks like the labor market is going to soften as we go further into 2012. >> james, it could in part with what we're seeing with oil prices and iran. how does this play into the president's calculus of how he's going to address iran, what the united states does, whether or not it supports israel? >> we have elections coming up, some people talk about netanyahu causes elections in 2012. we'll have some version of elections in iran. how this plays out, i'm not exactly sure. i know that bob gates, one of the most experienced people in the government said this was the hardest problem he has dealt with. he's the president of the united states, and there's always troubled spots around the world, always things like this, as predicted, as a result of the financial crisis, this economy has been fragile, slower than people like, but it's starting to gain some momentum, and the president is looking um, looking stronger and better, and romney's answer is not very convincing at all. it's just -- it looks like he's harping back to 37 months ago. i don't think that has any resiliency with voters or people right now. >> let me ask this question, james, strategically, ability the 8% versus the lack of income growth. the average american income is not rising as quickly as inflation, which means they're feeling worse off in terms of what they can buy than they felt a year ago. they point out it's a complicated thing for romney to say. is it complicated for him to say? why does he not go after that? >> a lack of income, that's been a problem for the middle class in this country since 1973. it's bad because inflation is so low, and if you're not keeping up with low inflation -- >> pathetic. >> some of you friends in wall street would say in a soft labor market that we have been through, it's not surprising that right now employees don't have leverage with employers so they're making less, and that maybe has something to do with the fact that the job numbers are getting better. i don't know, but i'm extrapolating on a cajun mind. when you have a soft market, people are willing to work for a few pennies less. that could be what we're seeing, and hopefully, as the economy gains momentum, employees will have a little more advantage to. >> thanks. we hope that happens. it will be interesting given the global competition for jobs. >> a viral video about a warlord who has been viewed now 60 million times. does it tell the whole story? we'll go live to africa tonight. and an exclusive report on a woman found strangled. what the man in custody said the victim's husband told him to do. and a rare look inside a prison housing somalian pirates. they're all like, "hey, brother, doesn't it bother you that no one notices you?" and i'm like, "doesn't it bother you you're not reliable?" and they say, "shut up!" and i'm like, "you shut up." in business, it's all about reliability. 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[ beeping ] ...to bring all the right results. it's the at&t network -- doing more with data to help business do more for customers. ♪ to montgomery and o more abigail higgins had... ...a tree that bore the most rare and magical fruit. which provided for their every financial need. and then, in one blinding blink of an eye, their tree had given its last. but with their raymond james financial advisor, they had prepared for even the unthinkable. and they danced. see what a raymond james advisor can do for you. 60 million. that's how many people have now watched the viral video about ugandan warlord joseph kony. that number is growing and growing. kony is notorious for packing victim's body parts off, kidnapping young children, forcing them to become young soldiers and forcing some to become sex slavers. it's horrific. the video, some say, does not tell the whole story. it does call for the warloerd to come to justice, but the u.s. is already working on that. you may recall that president obama send 100 military advisers to uganda in october. they were sent for the purpose of capturing kony. david, i know you have spent time there. there's a lot of talk of what joseph kony may have done in ugan uganda. some were diskissing hacking the limbs, truly horrific. some are saying he may not even be in uganda. where might he be? >> he's definitely not in northern uganda. while the powerful message has been put out, some say it's simplistic and loses some of the key facts in the issue. one of the key facts is he's not in northern uganda. the lra fled uganda some six years ago, to east and central african republic. that's where they are, operating there, in south sudan, and they're hankering down in the forest, hiding from ugandan and u.s. forces. and in many ways, erin. >> i can understand why so many ugandan government are upset with that, but is this newfound fame, the fact that this video has gone viral now, going to help find kony or not? >> good question. a lot of people are approximating, wondering if 60 million odd people know now who he is, is he going to use it to his advantage and try to gather people around him and push back? or is it going to make him easier to catch? >> i think neither is true in the shortterm. >> joining us to talk more about this manhunt going on, the u.s. military's involvement in it is rick nelson, a former counterterrorism expert. good to see you. what do these quote/unquote advisers do? are they cia agents? >> thanks for having me on. these are special operations forces. what they're doing is what is known as an indirect action mission. which has been the bread and butter of the force for some time. it's something like training and equipping host nations or indigenous forces, which is what our forces are doing in uganda. >> what has made this guy so difficult to capture? if they have been there since the fall and helping others in the region, i mean, people protecting him and it's that hard to find him? >> well, with the area that david outlined, erin, it's about 1.4 million miles, about the size of the south china sea. when you're planning a manhunt in an area that large with dense foliage and coverage, it's difficult, and that's one of the things u.s. forces are doing, helping the ugandan and local forces operate in that environment for long periods of time so they can have an effective manhunt. >> what do you make of the ugandan government say he's not even in uganda, and government was talking about the fact he could be in the central african republic. could you trust the governments to be quote/unquote good guys, not be protecting someone like this? >> we never really know. that's why it's important to equip the ugandan military to equip them with what they need to make their own analysis. >> i'm curious one thing we have done, ron paul has talked ability the u.s. military and pulling back, we look at how many military sites the u.s. has around the world, about 2,000 of them. this is one example of where we put american troops in a country to do work. how do we decide to go after this warlord instead of that warlord or help this country instead of that country? or is it random or what is getting media coverage? >> that's a good question, erin. a lot of decisions are made at the national security koenl level. we need the rest of the continent to be stable, and uganda has been a strong supporter of the amazon mission in somalia and helping to bring peace and civility to that nation, so it's important for the u.s. and the international community to support those. >> thank you very much. tonight, new twist in the murder mystery of a michigan mother found strangled in the back of her mercedes. we told you about this funirst month ago. we're learning today about questionable actions by investigator in the case. her clothes never made it to the crime lab after her body was found, and this is something that has continued to raise questions for us. police initially refused to believe her handyman. he had confessed to killing gin. he was charged finally this week with murder and conspiracy to commit murder, although they didn't say conspiracy with whom. the 48-year-old handyman has an iq of a third grader, claimed that the victim's husband, bob bashara, promised him a couple thousand dollars in cash and a used cadillac to carry out the hit. bashara denied the claim. an exclusive interview with a longtime friend of the handyman. ted, this is a friend who convinced him to go to the police. what can he tell you about him? >> well, he is a religious guy. he said he wished he could have done more. absolutely, he does not regret convincing his friend to turn himself in. >> i figured if i would have had more information, maybe. >> standing in his front yard, this man broke down talking to us about the murder of jane bashara. >> sorry. but i want justice served. >> he said his friend, joseph, came to him after jane bashara was found strangled to death. >> i sat and cried with him. sometimes the situation can get out of -- you have to make the right choice. >> he said the choice was to tell police what he said happened, that he killed her in her garage, that her husband, bob bashara, convinced him to do it. >> he was manipulated. >> he said he went with him to turn himself in on february 3rd, but after he told his story, police let him go. he was eventually arrested more than a months after he said he initially confessed. bob bashara remains free and maintains his innocence. >> we have cooperated with law enforcement agencies and will continue to do so. >> news that bob bashara had a girlfriend and also owned an s & m dudgeon below this shop, the ritzy community of gross point park. >> they said bashara's private life has clouded the investigation. >> it would appear that things such as that, things that aren't admissible in the courtroom, are what caused them to zero in on bob bashara. >> gentz pled not guilty at his arraignment. he's undergoing a mental evaluation, trying to see how much he does understand about this. until that is done, they don't have a preliminary hearing or trial date set. >> i'm curious about a couple things. you're talking about evaluating his intelligence. we've reported the iq of a third grader, maybe 80. how do you think that's going to affect the question of conspiracy to murder. don't they have to have a conspiracy with whom and arrest someone else as well? >> well, speculation is that the other people possibly involved in this will be charged, and a lot of people in this community think that may be bob bashara. his attorney says he hopes that doesn't happen, but he warns his client that indeed could be the case. >> there have been allegations of shoddy police work. when you're talking about gentz, he confessed, police let him go, and eventually, they charged him. we were talking here about jane bashara's clothes, the clothes in which she died never got to the kram lab. is there concern that a lot of is were not dotted, ts were not crossed to affect police being able to ultimately figure out who did this. >> as far as not arresting gentz right away, who knows? maybe they were monitoring him, who knows. where but the clothes thing has raised a lot of eyebrows. the bottom like is detroit police told us today, we sent the clothes that she was found in to the state crime lab with the state police. the state police told us today, we never received those clothes. what happened to the clothes? who knows? the bottom line is there could have been critical evidence on the clothes, and they're missing. >> ted, thank you very much. reporting from michigan tonight. a flight attendant terrified passengers on an american airlines flight. the woman who videotaped the meltdown comes "outfront" and we talk about how overtaxed and exhausted people who are flight attendants and pilots in the country might be. and president obama called president putin today, and we know a number of things that they talked about. no one else knows. we found out. we start the second half of the show with stories we care about, where we focus in on our reporting, do the work, and find the "outfront 5." first, the third mukt of better than expected job numbers. 227,000 jobs added in february. there are still concerns, wages are not growing as quickly as we need them to be. inflation is growing more quickly. and conrad told us earlier there is still some serious risk to the economy from a possible conflict or discussion of a conflict with iran, which could drive oil prices higher. >> number two, bashar al assad not losin