and in part because of the president's travels to the midwest and in part because of the new energy that texas governor rick perry is adding to the republican race. wednesday governor perry visited new hampshire, and while it's clear he's the flavor of the moment in presidential politics, the more he speaks, the more people, including many republicans, ask this question -- by so aggressively appealing to the republican base, is governor perry undermining his appeal as a general election candidate? this comment in new hampshire questioning man's role in global warming is new fodder tonight for the perry electability debate. >> i think that there are a substantial number of scientists who have manipulated data so that they will have dollars rolling in to their projects. and i think we're seeing it almost weekly or even daily scientists who are coming forward and questioning the original idea that manmade global warming is what is causing the climate to change. >> here's another comment from perry today that is suspect when put to the fact check test -- >> what six weeks ago the president went to el paso and said the border's safer than it's ever been. i have no idea. maybe he was talking about the canadian border. >> and generating the most heat is perry's iowa salvo suggesting it would be, quote, treasonous for the fed chairman ben bernanke to loosen u.s. monetary policy in an effort to keep the recovery going. >> i don't know what you all would do to him in iowa, but we'd -- we would treat him pretty ugly down in texas. >> on the campaign trail the confident candidate appears unfazed. even amused. >> you know, yesterday president said i needed to watch what i say. >> even perry fans in the republican establishment see signs of potential trouble, quote, he needs more bio and less texas, that's how one top party strategist put it to me tonight. let's debate the perry factor with cnn contributor eric ericson and alex castellanos and david gergen. alex, i want to start with you in the room. if you get on global warming it's a huge issue and big issue with the republican base. but look at the gallup poll, do you think the increase in earth temperature is due to human activities, 52% say, yes, natural changes 43%. a majority of americans say humans is contributing to global warming. governor perry clearly questions and disputes that. if you look at it broken down by partisanship it gets fascinating. it isn't exaggerated, 22% of democrats say so, 43% of independents and 67% of republicans so what governor perry is saying has clear appeal to republicans but is he risking his potential support among independents and even conservative democrats by saying that. >> on all the issues you have to say what you believe. it's what he believes. it's only worse if you're inauthentic, but, yes, that's the concern about rick perry. one of them is that he appeals to the base but that in a general election he could become george mcgovern or even barry goldwater, candidates with intense support but unable to reach across the middle. and you accent that when you shoot from the lip as some texans are known to do, you know, does he have mad cowboy disease. >> and, he talked today, he joked, he mocked the president going to el paso and saying the border is as safe as it's been in recent memory. obviously he's a border state governor. obviously he has a unique perspective being from texas, but if uf just look at the numbers, if you look at the numbers, el paso, texas, on the border is one of the cities in america with the lowest rate of violent crime. others are on the border, too, san diego and phoenix. el paso had 12 murders in 2009. if you go across the border, the town across the border had 2,000. more than double the size of border patrol agents than in 2004. 1,200 national guardsmen across the border and if you look at the study and more attribute it to the economy than the obama administration but the number coming across the border is also down. can the governor's credibility be questioned when he says things that the numbers don't seem to support? >> i think it depends on which numbers you look at, yes, the violence in el paso is down, but in rural new mexico and texas, the violence is up. they are not coming across in el paso. and you had the drug cartels fighting the bloody border right on the border and on the border you have the fast and the furious nonsense with the atn. on the global warming issue, i see the gallup poll, but there are other polls that show a lot of the public doesn't know. this global warming is not going to be an issue in 2012. it will be jobs. yes, rick perry, i think alex is right, he has to be careful what he says. he can get painted into a box. he can get in trouble. i think it's early. i think the big issue is jobs when it comes to -- when it comes to next year, but he doesn't want to get painted into a corner. >> david, it is early. it's his first week on the trail and a lot of candidates say things they take back or modify, and president obama criticized governor perry probably because he said a lot of things as a young candidate 2007 and into 2008, but particularly drawing scorn from a lot of republicans and democrats is the idea that ben bernanke would be treasonous or treacherous behavior if he kept putting money into the economy. last night i had one of the lesser-known republican candidates rick san for rey san the program and he took a shot. >> you don't up the ante on the rhetoric and it's out of place and hopefully governor perry will step back and realize we're not in texas anymore. >> what is he learning, david, this first week on the trail, governor perry? >> he's playing in the big leagues, on the national field. he's won three big elections in texas and he said things that people questioned, but he sort of brushed them off and went on. now he's playing in the big leagues and he'll get a lot more scrutiny. i'm still laughing over the mad cowboy disease from alex. but i tell you this, i -- the border statement today i didn't think much of. global warming, he didn't come out and call it a hoax at least. but i thought what he said about bernanke was a real gaffe, and, you know, on almost treasonous if he goes back to kwantative easing and we treat hem ugly in texas, that kind of swagger will scare the hell out of a lot of voters. you know, he's done well in the early polls in the republicans, but i'm here in new york now, i've had people come up to me on the street and say i'm scared about rick perry. and the kind of comments he makes, you know, he'll play much better obviously in the south than a place like new york anyway, but there are some people out there now who -- who are listening and saying, oh, wow, i didn't realize he meant that. >> and to david's point, john, i think it's exactly right, it's different, it's big league pitching in the presidential campaign. it turns out, for example, there were two governors who signed a letter asking ben bernanke of all people to get moving with that $700 billion t.a.r.p. program. one of those governors was rick perry. so these things kind of come back to bite you in the big leagues. >> another thing that get scrutiny, bp oil spill disaster, and if you go back in those days, he was talking about should we suspend drilling and what should we do. from time to time there are going to be things that occur that are acts of god that cannot be prevented. acts of god that cannot be prevented. we know what happened on the rig was horrible, that there was some negligence involved and questionable maintenance and questionable calls by the leadership. i bet that's one he'd like to have back. >> you know, i'm not sure, you know, at the time it was blown this acts of god thing, you know, anybody who is a lawyer understands what acts of god means, accidents. at the time that that happened there was still a probe and there was a lot of speculation it could have been an accident, yeah. there was a lot of negligence involved at the time but i think most people understood what he meant who aren't in new york and washington. >> aren't in new york and washington. that's a shot at us, i think. >> it is. >> what, john? you know, i'm curious about why the bushies are going after him. why karl rove and the others from the george w. bush, what's the nature of the tension. >> there's inside-texas rivalry, talk among the bushies that as governor he tried to say he was better than george w. bush and supporting rudy giuliani in 2007 he went to an event where he said george w. bush was no fiscal conservative, it goes on and on -- >> it won't hurt him in a republican primary. >> it probably won't hurt him, and there's consultant feuding that happens from time to time, you know how it happens from time to time? >> there's an interesting war now and then. but, you know, the other thing about rick perry is let's give him his due, when he came out of the box, he came out as a man who knew his mind, who didn't have to ask other people who he was and what he believes. and when you contrast that with an uncertain president who, you know, is for what he's against going to libya while you're coming out, you're going to reduce the deficit while you spend more, he actually looked pretty strong and decisive. we've got to watch him. >> and we're talking about him which means he jumped into the debate with a little get of gusto and we'll talk about it in the weeks ahead. a new jobs promise from the president and some advice for you from suze orman. >> i think 2012 could be a very difficult year. i'm on the camp that we have more chance of being in presessipr recession than avoiding it. and the syria regime's violent reaction to the demand to end violence, but do the rebels gain progress as they try to put a choke hold on tripoli? 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[ female announcer ] phillips' colon health. what's vanishing deductible all about ? guys, it's demonstration time. let's blow carl's mind. okay, let's say i'm your insurance deductible. every year you don't have an accident, $100 vanishes. the next year, another $100. where am i going, carl ? the next year... that was weird. but awesome ! ♪ nationwide is on your side a 2-year-old girl is the new face of global outrage as syria ignores international condemnation and continues its deadly crackdown. this horrific video of this young girl shot in the eye comes from the city where syrian forces have been on the assault for four days now. cnn's arwa damon is tracking the story from beirut tonight, and arwa, the government said it's pulling out and the forces leaving latakia, what are your sources telling you? >> reporter: activists that are located in that very neighborhood are saying is that quite simply is not true. they told us that two, maybe three military vehicles, armored personnel carriers pulled out, went to another area, but that the security forces are still fanned out. just a short while ago i got a message from an activist who was saying he was hearing sporp radek gunfire, there were snipers on rooftops, checkpoints, pharmacies, bakeries, all remain closed. families most certainly not coming back, so they're saying that the syrian government is quite simply trying to buy itself more time by making those various statements that it is, in fact, pulling out of this area. >> and, arwa, a couple of weeks ago it was this teenage boy dropped on a doorstep beaten, it looked like he had cigarette burns, and now this horrific video of this 2-year-old girl, inside syria obviously the administration is trying to send a chilling message to these activists, but inside syria, how are they receiving it? is it causing them to pull back or making them have more resolve? >> reporter: when it comes to the demonstrators, just about every single act that is a by-product of the government's excessive use of force has only served to harden them and make them even more determined. the case of this little girl, they find it horrific, yes. but at the same time, they will tell you that it doesn't really surprise them. they fully expect this type of behavior from the government. now, in this case it seems as if she was not deliberately targeted. but they do cite other instances where children, they say, have been deliberately killed, detained, tortured, all to send some sort of a message. they say that this regime doesn't differentiate between adults and children when it comes to silencing voices of dissent. and they'll also tell you this isn't something that emerged ever since this uprising began. they'll tell you that this has been the regime's behavior ever since it came into power, so for around four decades which is exactly why they say it simply has to go. >> arwa damon for us in beirut tonight, arwa, thank you. and in libya rebels claim progress for circling tripoli to choke off the gadhafi food and other supply lines, sara sidner is in libya tonight. i under you just talked to a rebel commander. what is his sense of the state of play? do they believe they have the necessary momentum? >> reporter: yes, the short answer to that. but here's what seems to be happening now. the city that is quite important because it is a lifeline to tripo tripoli, where fuel comes through and other supplies, an easy way to get those things into tripoli and as you know fuel is scarce there, and we're hearing that food is becoming quite scarce for residents there as well. according to this colonel, the situation is that the rebels do not have complete control of zawaia that they have control of some parts of the city but the gadhafi forces are still there on the eastern side of the city and they are shelling into the city and that there are snipers there near the hospital even on top of buildings. those snipers belonging to the gadhafi regime. so, there is still fighting in that city. they do not clearly have control of that city. >> is the goal, sara, to ultimately march on tripoli or just to encircle it and choke off the regime? >> reporter: i think it's two-fold. one, they do want to encircle it and choke off the supplies and, therefore, weaken the regime, but the real goal here is to move into the city. move into the capital, and move out gadhafi and his regime. that is what the rebels have been asking for. they want him to go, and if they -- if they have to do it by force, they say they will do that. there's a lot of optimism. we heard from a commander earlier this week that he believes they will be in tripoli in the next few weeks at the end of the month. >> and, sara, don't answer the question if you're worried about your safety, just say good-bye, but it's impossible not to know of the gunfire behind you. what to make of that? >> reporter: yeah. so, here's what happens. oftentimes and as you've seen throughout this war, when there is celebrations, a lot of times there are lots of people with guns, and people get very happy and very excited. and they start firing, and it's something we all have to contend with obviously. i mean, for our own safety, we're always kind of looking over our shoulder and trying to listen to make sure it's not coming our way, but sometimes it is. and a lot of times it's just enthusiasm on the parts of the rebels blasting into the air. but, again, a dangerous thing, and something that actually we talked to commanders in the early days when i was in benghazi and in misrata for several weeks and said why waste the ammunition? i mean, we know people get excited, but why waste this when you know that you have limited resources. the answer was, we're trying to control the situation, but we can't control everything, john. >> sara sidner, amid what we hope is just the celebration in libya tonight, sara, thank you. let's get some important context from experts nick burns is the former undersecretary of state and cnn national contributor fran townsend is also with us, she's a member of the external advisory board of the cia and the department of homeland security. i want to go to the map first, let's go to libya, sara sidner making the point i want to show you if you see the stripe, it's held by the rebels and tripoli the capital, they are beginning to put a circle around. but the question is the government towns here and the regime towns. fran from you first, from the folks in the intelligence community do they have confidence that the guys finally have their act together and they really might have a chance to choke off and maybe even march on tripoli? >> well, john, this is the most strategic success they've seen coming out of the rebels. and the question is can they put the internal sort of machinations aside? we've seen some indications that there's tension among the ranks of the rebels. if they can put that aside and actually really choke off supplies, it will weaken the hold inside tripoli and really provide them with an opportunity. along with nato support, there's a chance that they can actually achieve their objectives of choking off the gadhafi regime, but it remains to be seen. i mean, look, this will require a sustained and persistent effort that we haven't yet seen. >> let's ask the former nato ambassador, nick burns, the strategy for nato, we see a lot of air strikes in tripoli, if the rebels can get a surround right here, what does nato have to do and will nato, if you will, clear a path, then, to march on tripoli? >> well, john, i think fran is right. it's a consequential week shaping up for the libyan rebels and they have an opportunity if they can take the town to essentially cut off supplies from the western part of libya into the gadhafi regime. nato has intensified its bombing campaign. the reports are that the united states is adding predators, so you're beginning to see i think an opportunity here. both for the rebel alliance but also for nato to put some pressure on the gadhafi regime to relieve this stalemate that has been in place now for the last six months. >> and you see i just brought up here the pipelines here. if the rebels can keep this circle right here, they can also cut off pipelines going into tripoli which is an important economic resource, but i want to move the conversation to syria, if we can. august 7th and 8th, the saudi king said stop the killing machine. the killing continued. the united states and the turkish foreign minister meets with assad, stop, and he says he won't relent in his pursuit of what he calls the terrorists. and august 10th the united states announces new sanctions and i can go anywhere on this map and i will pick this town here, international pressure on the regime and this is what you get, people on the street protesting for their right being shot at. nick burns, secretary of clinton said yesterday we haven't called for assad to step down because we're using, quote, smart power, we want others in the community with closer and more important relationships to step forward, does that pass what i'll call the sniff test? >> well, i think it's understandable that secretary clinton would want to have key countries in the middle east, turkey, saudi arabia, egypt, and others work with her in concert to call, together, for the remove of bashar al assad for his resignation, given the outcry and legitimate ind