debate pinata have on texas governor rick perry's front runner status? >> there's no government purpose served for having little girls inoculated at the force and compulsion of the government. this is big government run amok. it is bad policy. and it should not have been done. >> and can the tea party deliver on this bold promise? >> look, we are going to choose the next republican nominee. >> right. >> we are not going to accept what the republican party hands us. but up first tonight, stunning evidence of why the stakes of that republican civil war are so consequential. new lows for president obama on just about all of the tests you use when an incumbent asks for four more years. the president's overall approval rating, at a new low. his grades on leadership, worst ever. and nearly 6 in 10 americans now doubt the president has what it takes to manage the government effectively. yet, another low point. on the road today in ohio, the president suggested republicans know he's on the ropes and are now willing to punish unemployed americans to keep his numbers down. >> already yesterday, there were some republicans quoted in washington saying that even if they agree with the proposals in the american jobs act, they shouldn't pass it because it would give me a win. give me a win? this isn't about giving me a win. this isn't about giving democrats or republicans a win. it's about giving the american people a win. >> let's get behind these startling new numbers tonight with democratic polster cornell belcher. he worked for the obama campaign, and our senior analyst david gergen, who has advised democratic and republican presidents. i'll go to the wall and i want to break down some of the numbers. it's truly stunning, especially when you look at how things have played out over the course of the obama presidency. this is the overall approval rating. how is he handling his job as president. back at the beginning of 2009, very high numbers. drops down. drops down. here we are now 43% in our new poll out tonight, that's a low for the president of the united states. 43% of americans approve of his handling, which means the majority of americans disapprove. that's one way to look at it. how is he handling the economy? we know that is the top issue in the country right now. again, watch this drop. drop more. and drop even a bit more. 36% approve of his economy. that is not a low, he was just below that a few weeks ago, but it's trouble for any incumbent. this is another new low for the president of the united states. is he a strong and decisive leader? look at this drop throughout the nearly three years of his presidency, now less than a majority, that is trouble for a incumbent seeking re-election. one more and we'll start the conversation. this one to me is incredibly important, especially if you think about how george w. bush lost support, they thought the katrina response was botched, they didn't think he was a competent chief executive. can president obama manage the government effectively? watch this drop over the course of the presidency, 42% now, 4 in 10 americans, just a little more than that, think he's up to the task of managing the government effectively. cornell belcher to you first. as the democrat who would be helping this democrat, an incumbent seek re-election, when you combine overall approval rating down, economic approval rating down, leadership, strong and decisive leader, managing, the american people, their grade of this president right now does not suggest he'd get four more years. >> well, two things, and let me put this in context, you know, his numbers aren't poor alone. when you look at sort of the congressional job approval numbers, those numbers have gone down, too, with the 30s now with republicans taking over into the teens as well. and approval or disapproval doesn't necessarily immediately equate to support. you know, my mother, for example, if i ask her, is the president doing a great job on the economy, when she looks around at the neighborhood and she looks at gas prices, not so much, but does she support the president? absolutely she does. another thing in that poll that you didn't point out when you asked questions about sort of does he care about people like you and does he have vision, the majority of americans still think that the president cares about people like them and he has vision. and one last point, we make a big brouhaha over the poll numbers that come out, but you put this in historical context, if you go back to august of 1983, reagan's job approval was in the low 40s and if you go back to september of '94, '93, you know, clinton's job approval numbers were also in the low 40s, so put some context around it. given all the economic angst that are out there right now, it's fair to say americans aren't happy, and the buck does stop with the president. >> the buck does stop with the president. before i bring david gergen in the conversation, all valid points. the american people like this president. they like him personally, but when they don't think he can manage the government effectively and he's not a strong and decisive leader, and that leads to a shorter word, weaker. you mentioned the numbers about reagan, i want to show you jimmy carter 14 months before he ran for re-election, his approval rating was 30%, disapproval, 55%. the president of the united states right now, barack obama, his approval rating is 13 points higher, 43%, but his disapproval matches jimmy carter as 55%. when you look especially at the leadership and can he manage the government effectively, how alarmed should the president be? >> these are very sobering numbers for the white house, and i think they send a message that's very clear. i think cornell makes some very good points, the president still has a reservoir of goodwill out there, people do like him, they want him to succeed. what we saw in the numbers is he took a dive because of the debt ceiling fight and the downgrade of our credit rating. >> and he didn't get a bounce out of his congressional speech. presidents usually get a bounce when they address the country. >> thank you. that's exactly where i wanted to go. because the big surprise in all of this to me is coming off a terrible august, i can understand why his numbers were down. however, when a president goes to a joint session, in, you know, essentially in the evening, and can command a big audience, typically a president like bill clinton got five- to ten-point jump in his numbers. here this president got no bounce that we can see whatsoever. and that has consequences as you know, john, he's going around the country trying to whip up pressure against the republicans to pass a jobs bill. if you don't get a bounce out of that kind of speech, it's really hard to put pressure on, isn't it? 43% is not exactly something you can lash people with. >> that's the challenge of the moment. can he move the dial? can he get the public to support him in this policy fight? there's another issue, i want to go back to the wall a little bit as we head into the campaign. i want to look at the map this way. you take into context the numbers about the president. here's the 2008 election maps, blue states, obama, red states, mccain. electorally, he won in a landslide and he did it among independent voters and 31% of independents approve, 65%, two-thirds of independents, disapprove of how he's doing as president. that's one key constituency. take a look at this map. look where the blue is, the midwest critical to the president's victory in 2008. handling the economy, on handling the economy, 34% approve, 64% in the midwest, a lot of big bellwether states disapprove of the handling of the economy. the obama campaign said it was rewriting the map in the west, they hope to do better this time, john mccain is not running, they thought arizona might be in play. the president in the west on the economy, the number one issue, approve, 38% disapprove, 62%. when you look at the map and the numbers, this is a much different campaign than 2008, not a little different, it's hugely different. >> can i jump back in? >> yes. >> one of the -- well, were. but, however, again, this is not like the republican brand is mercedes, if you look at the congressional job approvals and the independent voters, the republicans are doing even worse and it's worse when you tie the republicans to the tea party and the extremism going on right now. in the end it won't be a referendum on the president, it will be a choice. yes, the president is going around the country trying to sell his plan, but in the end it's the president who cares about him and who has a vision or however the republican nominee quite frankly is going to say i'm going to double down on the bush-year policies. >> i want to change the map as you jump in. cornell said he's going around the country. i want to show people where the president is going and how important it is. this is the president's travel through april. purple states are what we call battlegrounds, but he's going to the places he won last time, he's going to trying to keep this map in play. david gergen, cornell makes the point this is not a referendum. he makes a point that there will be a choice. but often that depends, we don't know that quite yet, do we? often when it's an incumbent, it is a referendum. >> it is to a significant degree a referendum, john, going back to the carter experience when reagan ran against him. when reagan ran and won that race, a third of the people who voted for reagan said they did so because he wasn't carter. they didn't want carter anymore and they took a gamble with reagan, a gamble that many of them thought paid off, of course, so there's a referendum quality about this. it's more than just a choice. we're going to see something tonight in this ninth district of new york, we'll all be waiting to see the results. if a democrat wins, i would expect that, but if a republican wins that district, which hasn't been in republican hands since 1923, that is going to -- that's going to be another straw in the wind. i -- i -- one -- what i do agree with cornell on is this, we don't know yet know the republican nominee. and you really -- to win re-election, you have to know who the opposition is. and if it's somebody who, you know, broad swaths of the american people do not think is acceptable, then the president's chances will go up. there's no question about that. but on the referendum issue right now, cornell, i think referendum is part of any presidential campaign when you run for re-election. it's baked into the cake and the president has to deal with it. that's the hard truth. >> david gergen, cornell belcher, hard truths, fascinating campaign ahead of us, we'll watch the numbers and it play out and we'll test your theories, mr. belcher, as it plays out. thanks. militants wear suicide vests attack the u.s. embassy in kabul. and next beating rick perry at the moment, well, it means being on defense. will his tea party support stay high now that his record as texas governor is under constant attack? 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cnn contributor erick erickson of the conservative blog redstate.com is here tonight as is billie tucker of the florida tea party alliance. i'm curious, will tea party voters especially stand by governor perry as they learn more and more about his texas record? let's start with the hpv vaccination. he signed an executive order that required -- required -- young girls to get a vaccine to protect them he says against a sexually transmitted disease. let's listen. >> unless texas has a very progressive way of communicating diseases in their school by way of their curriculum, then there is no government purpose served for having little girls inoculated at the force and compulsion of the government. this is big government run amok. it is bad policy, and it should not have been done. >> look, i think we made decisions in texas. we put a $3 billion effort in to find the cure for cancer. there are a lot of different cancers out there. texas, i think, day in and day out is a place that protects life. >> billie, do tea party voters want a governor or president who tells parents your daughter must get this shot? >> no. no, they don't, john. they don't mind the government maybe putting out psas about health concerns, but they certainly don't want an executive order coming down from an individual telling us that we have to inoculate our children. you know, the government puts out psas on flu shots and it's something that we all go out and take care of on a personal basis. but, no, we don't want the governor to tell us to inoculate our children, absolutely not. >> on the evening after, do you detect some peopling saying, hmm, i got to look more closely, because governor perry has only been in the race a month but he shot to the top quickly. are constitutional conservatives saying maybe we need to peel back the pages a little bit? >> well, i think there are two dynamics in this, john. the first is, yes, i think this will give some people pause and they won't lock into him if they were going to right now. they'll wait and see for another debate, but there's another one as well, i think this could have had more damage against rick perry until michele bachmann started talking about it after the debate and someone approaching her who said the vaccine caused mental retardation and other issues. and by today the rhetoric from a lot of his critics was completely anti-vaccination, including mmr shots, et cetera, and i think that discredits a lot of the conversation. it was unintentional, but it happened. i don't remember a candidate imploding so fast after a solid score like michele bachmann other than the dean scream in 2004 scoring from scoring solid shots on perry last night to today -- even rush limbaugh saying she'd jumped the shark. >> it's been a long time since we had a dean scream reference on the show. i'm happy for that. the vaccination was one thing where you heard rick santorum saying big government run amok, certainly not a label a conservative wants pointed to. another place that he came under attack, we were at a luncheon where the tea party voters in florida were still angry about how illegal immigrants get benefits from the government and governor perry was defending in texas, children of illegal immigrants get in-state college tuition and financial aid, congresswoman bachmann said no way. >> right. >> i think that the american way is not to give taxpayer subsidized benefits to people who have broken our laws who are here in the united states illegally. that is not the american way. >> you know support for governor perry pretty strong among tea party voters. when you talk to them after the debate and today and i asked erick the same question, do they need to look more closely or now that i know more about him, i can't support him, what's the reaction? >> they want to look more closely. a lot of people last night were stunned a little bit by a couple of his comments and specifically, yes, about the -- the illegal immigrants that are getting benefits, it's not about legal ones, it's the illegal ones. we believe in the rule of law. so, yeah, we're going to take a look. we've not made any decisions but there was some pause last night. people wanted more. they hoped to get a rick perry that was just perfect and they found out he's not. >> he's not. >> no. >> it's pretty fascinating going forward mitt romney who is more of an established republican wants to go after rick perry on social security, and they are looking ahead to the iowa caucuses that they want to go after perry essentially saying he's not as conservative as you think. he's not as loyal to the tea party principles as you think. listen to this exchange about immigration and border security between governor perry and senator santorum. >> unlike governor perry, i believe we need to build more fence. i need -- i believe that we need to secure the border using technology and more personnel, and until we build that border, we should neither have stormtroopers come in and throw people out of the country nor should we provide amnesty. what we should do is enforce the laws in this country with respect to employers and we should secure the border. >> but the idea that you're going to build a wall from brownsville to el paso and go left for another 800 miles to tijuana is just not reality. what you have to have is boots on the ground. >> erick, will that hurt him? he's essentially saying you're not going to build a fence, or are people past that? >> you know, to a degree, i think it's going to hurt him with some tea party activists. not all tea party activists are closed-border tea party activists. some are very much -- very free trade and supportive. you know, he's gotten the endorsement of brian sandoval, the governor of nevada, and that will boost him on the electability scale and i think things like this some tea party activists are starting to realize none of the candidates are perfect, they'll not get their perfect candidate. we'll see. i suspect if the candidates play it right, immigration will be his achilles' heel now that hpv has kind of imploded. but i think perry's going to be able to get a message that will sell to the tea party activists. >> there are a lot of peo