-- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com under two hours from the start of iowa's presidential caucuses. a vote to shrink the field and perhaps give us a front-runner. mitt romney predicting, quote, we're going win this but his opponents are promising the governor will have a much harder time after tonight. this afternoon the former house speaker newt gingrich told reporters his ads will start drawing, quote, a sharper, clearer contrast with governor romney and on cbs this morning, the former speaker, remember, he's the candidate who keeps promising to stay positive, well, gingrich called romney a liar. >> are you calling mitt romney a liar? >> yes. >> why are you saying he's a lier? >> this is a man whose staff created the pac, his millionaire friends fund the pac. he pretens he has nothing to do with the pac. it's balogna, he's not telling the american people the truth. it's like a pretense he's a conservative. >> governor romney's laughing off gingrich's attempt to be more aggressive. >> i understand the speaker apparently's angry and i wish him well, he and calista. hopefully we'll be able to connect with the american people in the way to get the support that we need. >> cnn chief political correspondent candy crowley spoke with governor romney today. she's live in des moines. has to be a great sense of anticipation but anxiety as governor romney sees an iowa win within reach, but remembers four years ago. >> reporter: absolutely. when he's spent $10 million, only to come in a distant third to mike huckabee. yeah, they are a little burn by this but i have to tell you, it is palpable within the romney campaign that they feel very good about tonight. the governor himself, i had a chance to peek to just as he was briefly going through the rope line after his speech this morning, and you know, even he doesn't want to jinx it. he says a feel good, i think we'll do, i think we'll be in the top three. of course anyone who read the "the des moines register" poll would probably think that. they're looking for a good night. would they love a number one, they would. that's why, john, you are hearing mitt romney kind of brush off newt gingrich. you don't want to tangle right now. you want to stay upbeat and positive, and do some of that, the speeches, with the sort of high flying rhetoric, which is what he did today. >> and to that point, candy, governor romney has focused on president obama, not republican rivals in the closing hours. he also brought his sons out to stup f stuch for him today. >> rather than paying someone to build a fence he decided to work with his five sons and his wife and he was going to build a fence on his own. >> my dad is extraordinarily cheap. he is as cheap a human being as you've ever met member could have afforded to have someone else come in and build that fence but he wanted to do it himself. >> explain to me why they think my dad's cheap, candy, is a good closing message in the campaign. >> reporter: that's right. because what's been the wrap on mitt romney, he's too distant, aloof, he doesn't have one of the story lines people like to tell about their childhood, how they understand the pain of america. this is about putting the flesh on mitt romney that some people say he looks like an executive but he doesn't look like he cares. that's what the family does, that's what wives do, that's what sons do. that's what the campaign has been for the last couple of weeks and he has been out with his family. for mitt romney the message is, make no mistake. for the family it's to humanize the guy as they move teefeerds. he's flesh and bones and that's what this is about out here. >> candy crowley, at the mitt romney headquarters, second time around for governor romney. hopes iowa makes him the front-runner. ron paul's campaign, well, launched its strongest attack so far against governor romney. listen to this. part of a one-minute radio ad. >> romney's record is liberal. and putting him up against obama is a recipe for defeat. that candidate who can beat obama is dr. ron paul. >> cnn's dana bash covering poll campaign. at the last hours to go after governor romney they think they need to peel a little bit from him, if congressman paul is to get what he wants tonight, the prize in iowa. >> reporter: that's right. this is a little bit of a surprise that they're running this last-minute radio ad. not a surprise what the message is, using the "l" word like they did yesterday when n. an interview with rick santorum. those are the two threats that ron paul believes he has tonight. remember four years ago, john, ron paul finished a distant fifth with 10% of the vote. and the expectations were incredibly low last time around. this time very, very different. he has been doing incredibly well in the polls. and that means that the expectations are quite high. his campaign is saying, very similar things to what mitt romney's saying, which is that he hopes to finish in the top three. but look, the question is whether or not what has become lore here, the organization that he has and building for four years whether that will kick in and do well, even better than third. >> ron paul has an older libertarian base but he's depending on younger voters. he doesn't strike me as an "american idol" fan but one former "idol" winner is a fan and ron paul's looking to make the most of it. >> i'm wondering, does anybody know the name kelly clarkson? recently, recently, she endorsed me a couple of weeks ago and something happened because i had to admit, i didn't know a whole lot about her. >> even the pictures, dana, fascinating. the oldest candidate in the republican field, college students behind him, how important are the new, younger voters to the paul recipe for success tonight? >> reporter: incredibly important. i was at that event today. the other two candidates, michele bachmann and rick santorum got good responses but nothing like the 76-year-old candidate from young voters, first-time caucus voters new york question those are the people that the paul campaign are relying on to actually not just say we like ron paul but get out and vote for him. one other interesting thing that i found in talking to young voters there, something you have found in traveling the country and talking to people, they like ron paul because they feel that he is authentic. they're annoyed with the politicians, with the government in general and think that ron paul actually says what he means and does what he says and that's something we don't see a lot in politics anymore. >> dana bash, a big night tonight for her. one reason christian conservatives like the former senator rick santorum is for the same reason. santorum downplaying his expectations tonight "the des moines register" poll showed him shooting up in the last few days. santorum said it would be great to crack the top three. his last-minute stops trying to convince undecided voters he's the best choice to take on president obama come november. >> every decision that's going to be made here in the next few years, whether obama care is repealed or whether it's kept in place, whether taxes are going to grow, whether this deficit that is now crushing the economy and will crush your pocketbooks in the future is going to be dealt with so you won't have a loyer standard of living, it's your future. >> ron paul, mitt romney, rick santorum, they were the top three in the final iowa poll but that doesn't guarantee they'll end the night the big winners. gloria borger here with me for a closer look at different paths to victory in iowa. this is the 2008 map. governor romney did well here. cedar rapids, davenport, dubuque, the cities in iowa, not very big. he did well here, the huge test tonight. a conservative part of the state. team romney says this, they want high turnout, higher than 118,000 last time, more women, more senior citizens, fewer evangelical voters from a percentage standpoint. they believe that gets them victory tonight, why? >> well, because that -- those voters, the evangelicals, would help rick santorum and they don't want that kind of a turnout. women do very well with mitt romney. they like him. and they don't want the sort of ideological purists if you will. those are not his people. his people are that sort of solid 25% that have liked him all along, they believe he's electable and they want those people to come to the polls tonight. . they don't want those -- >> they don't want this. >> they don't want younger voters that ron paul might bring. they just want their dependable mitt romney voters to come out. >> this is the evangelical base of mike huckabee four years ago. come forward 2012. here are the colors. watch this. this will fill in live as results come in. here, interesting questions. we have the evangelical voters. the darker the area on the map, the higher the percentage of evangelical voters. if you talk to people in the santorum campaign, they say they'll go into the caucuses look to perry people in the eye, look bachmann people in the eye and say your candidate can't win, you have to support us to have a conservative voice in the election. what perry hopes bachmann and perry add up to 18 that blocks santorum from winning. evangelicals? >> if evangelicals divide, romney conquers, that's what it is. romney doesn't want the evangelical voters to turn and say, you know what? we kind of like rick santorum now, we think we're going to unify behind a candidate. that's what happened with mike huckabee in 2008 and that was what gave huckabee the huge percentage, 45% of them. he really needs evangelicals to split. >> we'll show you later in the show. we'll break down the tea party vote in iowa. evangelicals big in 2008. the tea party, a new element in 2012. still ahead, it wasn't long ago he was in the lead. now he's on the sidelines. we'll ask herman cain his choice among the remaining candidates. despite his stullables in iowa, rick perry has plenty of fight left. governor perry joins is next with a preview of the tough message he's bringing to south carolina. >> mitt romney has got a real problem when it comes to consistency. those folks in south carolina, i can promise you, they're not going to buy a pig in a poke. >> plenty more to come. setting the stage for cnn's specialage coverage, america's choice for 2012. iowa caucuses. why did we build a 556 horsepower luxury car with a manual transmission? because there are those who still believe in the power of a firm handshake. the cadillac cts-v. manual or automatic, that's entirely up to you. we don't just make luxury cars, we make cadillacs. mathis team of guinea pigs to ty boanso to save some y, d inea pig: row...row. they genatectry, wch le me rf t. guinea pig: row...row.took one, 8 months to get the guin: ..row.ow...row. they genatectry, wch le me rf t. lile cbby one to yell row! guineaig: ro's kof strange. guinig: row...row. such a simple word... row. anncr: t an easierayof strange. save. get online. go to geico.com. get a quote. e u 15% or more on car insurance. running for president can be a humbling experience. just ask rick perry. the texas governor was the summer surge candidate in the gop field but a few big debate gaffes changed everything, forcing perry on late-night tv in hopes of winning a second or a third chance. >> listen, you try concentrating with mitt romney smiling at you, that is one handsome dude. >> perry campaign has bought the most iowa tv ads, yet the final polls show governor perry running fifth among the six candidates contesting iowa. before spending time with us today, perry asked his final iowa crowds to consider the 2012 stakes. >> this election is about stopping a president of the united states and his administration that is abusing the constitution of this country, that is putting america on a track to bankruptcy and, folks, we are going to take america back. that's what this is. >> governor perry, appreciate your time an an important, busy day. you've never lost an election. if you look at numbers, things look bleak tonight. what happened? >> well, let's wait until tomorrow before we say whether anything looks bleak or not. there's 40% of the people still out there haven't made their decision and i've got over 500 plus people that have come over 32 states to work the phone banks and caucus for us tonight. i feel pretty confident that we're going to come out of iowa with some good momentum and head on to the other states and this things a long way from being over. so it's a marathon, it's not a sprint. >> senator santorum has surged in recent days. his folks are going into caucuses tonight, sir somewhere look the bachmann people in the eye, look the perry people in the eye and say they're good candidate but was we need a single concern emerge from iowa as alternative to mitt romney. how do you counter that? >> i agree with that analysis, it's correct, and i'm the only person who has the ability to raise the money nationally and has the ground keep in these other states to do that. that is an absolute correct analysis, but it's not rick santorum. frankly, rick's going to have a real problem when he leaves and people start vetting his background from a fiscal conservative standpoint. this guy's the king of earmarks and pork barrel spending, the liaison between washington and k street. he's got real bags that he's going to have to explain to people and that's in going to be a problem for him. >> if you wake up tomorrow morning and see governor perry in a disappointing fourth or fifth, any point where you say, that's a message we're going home, or are you going to south carolina regardless? >> i'm headed to south carolina. the plane will be warmed up in the morning and we'll be headed to aikens, south carolina, to continue on. i mean the idea that one or two states is going to decide who the next nominee for the republican party is, is just, you know, that's not reality. this is a 50-state campaign and it's about the future of america and i think americans are ready for an outside who are will go to washington, d.c. and overhaul the place and an executive who has the governing experience of 11 years of running the 13th largest economy in the world and doing in a way that has made texas the number one job creation state in the america. that's what americans are pining for. someone who will get washington off of their back, out of their pockets and allow entrepreneurs to have the freedom to risk capital and create jobs. and i'm it. >> governor romney comes out of iowa with a win or strong second and wins new hampshire, how do you stop him in south carolina? >> i think you go and share with the people of south carolina the real message of who has the consistency and is an authentic conservative. mitt romney has got a real problem when it comes to consistency. those folks in south carolina, i can promise you, they're not going to buy a pig in a poke, so to speak, and a massachusetts governor that put individual mandates in place that obama took as the model to create obama care is not going to sell in south carolina. >> do you worry at all, sir, you'll have a repeat of 2008? huckabee, a christian conservative candidate, wins the state of iowa. john mccain comes back and wins the state of new hampshire and south carolina, fred thompson stayed in the race. mccain ekes out a victory. if you look through the data, and i've scrubbed it for years, if fred thompson doesn't stay in, huckabee wins south carolina, you have a different race in 2008. are you worried that if a perry, a bachmann, a santorum, and others stay in the race that you're essentially spoilers on the right and you'll allow romney to sneak through? >> i think this election, and you'll probably agree with this, john, is so different than any election that you've ever seen in the past that to try to go back and make some comparables between an '08 or '04 or 2000 election with what's going on now is an interesting exercise. this election is far from decided. and today won't decide it, i will suggest to you. south carolina will come near giving us a better clue who's going to be the republican nominee. you know we're going to work hard the rest of date here and expect to have a good showing. >> i couldn't agree more, one of the big things we'll look for how din is this republican party from the republican party four years ago, how do the evangelicals break, how do the tea parties break. best of luck in the final hours in iowa and see you on the road ahead in south carolina. >> thank you. godspeed. >> herman cain also among our special guests this hour, as we count down the minutes until iowans vote. we asked mr. cain if he's ready to make an endorsement and whether mitt romney can sew up the nomination with wins in iowa and new hampshire. >> i don't think it's a done deal he'll be the presumptive leader and he would have momentum necessary to get it. next, new developments after a string of five molotov cocktail attacks in the new york area. nyquil:what? tissue box (whispering): he said nasal congestion... nyquil: i heard him. anncr vo: tylenol cold multi-symptom nighttime relieves nasal congestion... nyquil cold & flu doesn't. [ male announcer ] why do we grow quaker oats? because there are mountains to climb. ♪ dreams to be realized. ♪ new worlds to be explored and hearts to be won. quaker oats. energy to get you going, fiber to help fill you up and help keep your heart healthy. super people eat super grains. and help keep your heart healthy. where they grow america's favorite wpotatoes. idaho, everyone knows idaho potatoes taste great. but did you know they're good for you too? they're high in vitamins and potassium. and idaho potatoes are now certified to carry the heart checkmark from the american heart association for foods low in saturated fat and cholesterol. so they're good for my family, and for yours. heart smart idaho potatoes. always look for the grown in idaho seal. welcome back. back to iowa. more politics in a moment. kate bolduan with the latest news you need to know. new york police tell cnn a plan confessed and is being charged in connection with five molotov cocktail attacks over the weekend that targets included an islamic center, hindu place of worship and a deli. the man told them they had a gripe with someone at each of the locations. take a look at this. a news helicopter from cnn affiliate kotv covering a fire in oklahoma when the cameraman spotted a guy running to a pickup truck. the man and his companions wearing camouflage, had guns and seemed suspicious. the chopper relaid the location to the sheriff's department. the men said they were hunting and set the fire to tree a bobcat. one was arrested. if the chopper hadn't been there the fire could have spread out of control. this is pretty wild. who says social media isn't good for your health? you can't say that anymore apparently. damon brown of seattle, washington, he needed a kidney replacement surgery. he created a page on facebook and before long his site had more than 1400 friends and a potential donor. john, it was a family friend, someone that they had known for years and now he can apparently say he found his kidney on facebook. pretty wild. >> that's fabulous. this is the way to bring people together as friends and help other people out. that's great. >> amazing. >> kate, ever wanted to stand up at the oscars or the emmys and be the person who opens the envelope and give the prize? >> how did you know that's been my dream. what do you mean? tell me. >> i'll have you join us later today. we have a secret envelope, given us to by the governor of iowa, two months ago. terry brand stat made a prediction, who will win tonight. we'll show you late in the program. kate will come back and help me out. we'll see you then. >> republican game tonight. president obama's not sitting out iowa caucuses. how he's trying to grab a bit