of epic proportions. wolf blitzer is off today. i'm candy crowley and you're in "the situation room." all eyes on the supreme court and congress with a potentially historic day on tap tomorrow. one that could be especially bad for president obama. we're expecting the justices' long awaited ruling on health care reform. the president's flagship issue in one that impacts virtually every american. at the same time, eric holder could become the first sitting u.s. attorney general ever held in contempt of congress. the planned house votes stems from accusations the justice department is withholding documents on a failed operation that put guns in the hands of mexican drug cartels. president obama and his staff are bracing for all the possibilities. cnn white house correspondent, dan lothian, has details. dan, what are you picking up there as they do sort of brace for two really important decisions tomorrow? >> reporter: they really do. and on health care they do still believe and are confident that the health care law is constitutional. they've been focused on implementing that law. but as you know, there were some tough questions from the justices during oral arguments. and so this administration is prepared for victory, defeat or something between. since the u.s. supreme court is leak-proof, how the justices will rule on health care is mostly a guessing game. on the line, the president's signature legislative accomplishment, which he continues to tout as the right thing to do. >> i believe it was right to make sure that over 3 million young people can stay on their parents' health insurance plan. i believe it was right to provide more discounts for seniors on their prescription drugs. >> reporter: if the high court doesn't agree completely, what next? top white house aides refuse to speculate. at a recent women's town hall at the white house, health and human service secretary painted a dark picture if the court strikes the law entirely. >> it has some pretty cataclysmic impact. >> reporter: she said the administration was prepared for contingencies for whatever the court ruled. but when pressed about gaming different scenarios, white house spokesman jay carney, didn't answer it. >> you know, i don't know how useful it is to spend at least our time doing that. >> reporter: president obama will learn of the ruling about the same time the public does. carney says there is no war room set up in anticipation of the court's decision. but on capitol hill, key democrats and republicans are gearing up to respond with pre-written messages to three different scenarios. senator john kerry has already announced a news conference. house speaker john boehner has set up a rapid response team that will flood tv, radio and social media. and he's laying the ground work for a battle in congress. >> if the court does not strike down the entire law, the house will move to repeal what's left of it. >> but the obama administration still believes the health care law is the most effective and efficient way to ensure americans so as the clock counts down, there is some tension here. but, candy, i don't know if you were watching the briefing earlier today. a moment of levity when white house spokesman jay carney was asked where the president would be when his announcement made, he said in the war room. he earlier said the war room was his own office. so we don't know exactly where the president will be. and it's unclear whether or not he will step before the cameras to make some sort of reaction comment to the ruling. but this is no joking matter. this is a big deal for the president. he put it all on the line on health care reform. and now they have to wait to see what the supreme court will decide. >> dan lothian, get some sleep tonight. it's going to be a busy day over there. >> reporter: certainly will. >> appreciate it. it could be a double whammy for the white house tomorrow if the house votes to hold attorney general eric holder in contempt of congress. he's accused of withholding documents about the controversial gun running program called fast and furious in which federal agents let weapons fall in the hands of mexican drug cartels. joe johns is on capitol hill for us. joe, is this a forgone conclusion considering that the house is dominated by republicans? >> reporter: well, to some degree, candy. first i got to say i just ran back here to the bureau which isn't far from the capitol. but the last-minute maneuvering on this contempt citation really is not over yet. just a little over an hour ago a top democratic, elijah comings called on the speaker to end this. broadsides the republican effort as riddled with errors, mischaracterizations, it's likely parts of this letter will serve as the basis for the pleadings once all of this gets into the courts. but as it stands now, the house is still set to vote on contempt tomorrow. who would have thought for the first time a sitting u.s. attorney general, the country's top law enforcement officer, could be held in contempt of congress? but that's where things stand. >> we're going to proceed. we've given ample opportunity to comply, even as late as yesterday. the white house sat down with some of our staff to outline what they'd be willing to do. unfortunatel unfortunately,. >> reporter: the white house claims executive privilege and blames politics. last-minute negotiations with the administration have failed. >> house republicans have made the strategic choice to try to score political points by focusing their time and attention on a law enforcement operation from 2009 that was botched and that everyone agrees was botched. >> reporter: there's no dispute operation fast and furious will go down as a bad idea allowing hundreds or even thousands of guns to go walking south of the border in hope that they might lead to bad guys in cartels. but now a very important interest group is ratcheting up the political pressure. the national rifle association wants members of congress to vote for contempt, which could even influence democrats to vote against holder. which raises this question. >> what the heck is the nra doing getting involved and scoring votes on an issue of a contempt citation? >> reporter: the nra says the obama administration was hoping operation fast and furious would lead to new gun control measures. >> it sure looks to me like they facilitated a criminal enterprise to further their political agenda of more gun control laws in the united states. >> reporter: it's an opinion shared by congressman darrell isa. >> we have e-mails from people involved in this that are talking about using what they're finding here to support basically assault weapons, or greater reporting. >> reporter: but that he means greater reporting requirements on people with certain firearms. we've asked for the e-mails but haven't gotten them yet. we also asked speaker boehner for the evidence too, but he wasn't going there. >> i've never indicated that was the case. i don't know that was the case because we don't have the documents. >> reporter: now, the nra, congressman congressman issa, nobody have asserted that any higher-ups had any knowledge of the controversial tactics used in the operation. that's why these people say they want all the information out in the open. candy. >> joe johns in our washington bureau. thank you, joe. we want to get more on this with cnn chief analyst gloria borger. the health care decision, the contempt decision, this is also a big political day for the president. >> it's a huge political day. look, fast and furious, no matter which side of this argument you're on, is a partisan sideshow when you compare to the impact that the health care decision is going to have on the american public. and for an administration that made health care reform the centerpiece of its domestic agenda, no matter how you spin it, candy -- and believe me, there are people spinning away right now planning how to spin, no matter how you spin it, you have to say that if part or all of the health care reform bill were to be overturned that it would be a big dis appoiappoint for this white house considering how much time, energy, effort they put into this. >> is it necessarily then a plus for mitt romney? >> no. >> let's say -- >> it really isn't necessarily a plus for mitt romney. i mean, as i say, you can argue either side of it. but think about republicans. what's been the rallying cry of the republican party that we've seen throughout the primaries and in this campaign? it's anti-health care reform. okay, so if that is taken off the table, then maybe you lose some of the enthusiasm among your base who says, okay, we don't love mitt romney that much, but this issue's taken care of, so maybe we won't turn out to vote for him. there are all different ways to spin this. you will hear mitt romney spinning it himself. and there are all kinds of questions that will remain depending upon -- >> what are those? it does open up -- let's say the mandate is thrown out. that seems to be the most likely thing. the rest of it stays. there's now still a whole set of political questions. >> it's one of those, be careful what you wish for situations, because you might get it. say the republicans are thrilled that the health care mandate is thrown out. the democrats will turn right around and say to the republicans, okay folks, health care mandate thrown out. what are you going to do to keep all those goodies that people really like? like a question of pre-existing conditions, keeping your children on your health care, et cetera, et cetera, for a longer period of time. and republicans will turn around and they're going to say to the democrats, you know what, that's your problem. that's not our problem. we're not going to come up with a 6,000 page bill overnight. you're going to have to figure out how to fix this and what to do. and by the way, candy, nothing will get done until after the election. what you're going to have is a lot of finger pointing and a lot of uncertainty. and republicans and democrats each asking each other the question of, what's going to happen next? >> right. >> what's your plan b? >> right. you ask a democrat and they say the plan in the supreme court, that was our plan a and b. >> and they'll be finger pointing within the democratic party also about, why didn't you guys ever really take the notion that this might be unconstitutional seriously? i mean, whenever we used to ask questions about it, everybody say of course it's constitutional. just read the commerce clause, right? well, maybe not. >> yeah. our chief political analyst, gloria borger, thank you very much. see you tomorrow. >> yeah. all day. >> much more on tomorrow's expected health care reform ruling. we'll look at how it impacts all of us with cnn chief medical correspondent dr. sanjay gupta, and our senior legal analyst jeffrey toobin. also new polls give president obama an edge over mitt romney in three states. jack cafferty is standing by. and former president jimmy carter is slamming the obama administration. his scathing op ed in strategy session. and cheddar bay biscuitsd then choose one of 7 entrees plus dessert! four perfect courses, just $14.99. come into red lobster and sea food differently. [ engine turns over ] [ male announcer ] we created the luxury crossover and kept turning the page, this is the next chapter for the rx and lexus. this is the pursuit of perfection. this is the next chapter for the rx and lexus. recently, students from 31 countries took part in a science test. the top academic performers surprised some people. so did the country that came in 17th place. let's raise the bar and elevate our academic standards. let's do what's best for our students-by investing in our teachers. let's solve this. a living, breathing intelligence helping business, do more business. in here, opportunities are created and protected. gonna need more wool! demand is instantly recognized and securely acted on across the company. around the world. turning a new trend, into a global phenomenon. it's the at&t network -- securing a world of new opportunities. ♪ look who i found. jack cafferty's here with the cafferty file. jack. >> candy, always good to see you. thanks. fresh new polls out today in the battleground states, florida, pennsylvania and ohio. three states that went for president obama in 2008 but are expected to be toss-ups in november. mr. obama leading romney by four points, 45 to 41 in florida. that's within the poll sampling area. the president was helped out with strong support from florida's latinos. in pennsylvania the president leads romney by six points. his lead bolstered by a strong gender gap. mr. obama leads romney by 12 points among women in pennsylvania. and in ohio the president's up nine, 47% to 38%, once again, a big gender gap. history suggests president obama will almost certainly win a second term if he can keep these leads in these three key swing states through election day. in every single presidential election since 1960, the winning candidate for the white house has carried at least two of these three states. they have a combined total of 67 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. but the word battleground has a special meaning in some cases. remember the hanging chads in 2000? the supreme court wound up deciding the election in george bush's favor because florida was mired in an antiquated system that kept the vote count there in question for weeks. and then there's ohio. remember the voting machine fiasco in 2004? you could make the argument that until they learn how to do it, florida and ohio should not be allowed to vote in anymore presidential elections. but the fact is florida, ohio and pennsylvania hold the keys to the white house. and that's a fact, jack. right now things look pretty good for president obama in those three states. here's the question, should the same three states, florida, ohio and pennsylvania, be able to determine the outcome of virtually every presidential election? go to cnn.com/caffertyfile, post a comment on my blog. or go to our post on "the situation room" facebook page. candy. >> thanks, jack. we will see you with the answer shortly. whichever way tomorrow's expected supreme court ruling on health care reform goes, it will put mitt romney in an awkward position. not only is the presumptivive republican nominee sharply critical of the affordable care act, he also helped inspire it. cnn national political correspondent, jim acosta, has more. jim, romney -- this much is clear, we know how he wants the court to rule. >> reporter: that's right, candy. mitt romney has said he thinks the president's health care law is unconstitutional. he hopes the supreme court strikes it down. and at the heart of conservative objections to the president's health care law is its individual mandate. but, candy, that individual mandate is something mitt romney held up as a potential national model in an interview with cnn three years ago. if the supreme court does not bring down the president's health care law, mitt romney vows he will. >> if it is deemed to stand, then i'll tell you one thing, we're going to have to have a president -- and i'm that one, that's going to get rid of obama care. >> reporter: and president obama is warning voters to take mr. romney at his word. >> mr. romney wants to roll back the reforms that put in place that prevent insurance companies from discriminating against people who are sick. i believe it's the right thing to do. >> reporter: as most voters now know, the president borrowed heavily from the plan romney signed into law six years ago when he was governor of massachusetts including a mandate on people in his state to buy health insurance. the same kind of mandate conservatives say is unconstitutional. but in an interview with cnn three years ago, romney touted the mandate as a free market alternative to the president's original proposal to give americans the choice to buy into a government insurance program, a so-called public option that was later scrapped. and do you think this plan, the massachusetts plan, could be a model for the country? >> i think there are a number of features in the massachusetts plan that could inform washington on ways to improve health care for all americans. the fact that we have portable insurance and that we were able to get people insured without a government option is a model i think they can learn from. >> reporter: but there is an individual mandate and that is something a lot of americans aren't accustom to. >> there are a number of ways to encourage people to get insurance. what we did is said you're going to lose a tax exemption if you don't have insurance. i don't think mandate is necessarily the word people want to think about, but incentives to get insured is a good way to help get everybody in the pool that brings down the costs and at the same time make sure that people don't have to worry about losing their coverage. >> but it is a mandate? >> it's a kind of mandate -- >> it's a requirement. >> it's a requirement we said in order to get your tax exemption you would normally get, you've got to have health insurance because we want everybody in the system. no more free riders. >> reporter: romney since said on repeated occasions his plan was only meant for massachusetts. >> our plan was a state solution to a state problem. and his is a power grabby the federal government to put in place a one-size fits all. >> reporter: in this video democrats noted that's not what romney said the last time he ran in 2008. >> back away from mandates on a national basis -- >> oh, no, i like mandates. >> reporter: this time around he spent much of the primaries fighting off attacks from rivals like rick santorum who stood on the steps to blast romney as the worst candidate to take on the president on health care. >> there is one candidate who is uniquely disqualified to make the case. it's the reason i'm here and he's not. >> reporter: if the president's law is struck down, romney has vowed to bring back some of its protections. his campaign released a statement saying, romney supports reforms to protect those with pre-existing conditions from being denied access to a health plan. but the insurance companies say they are worried if the health care law is upheld, but that individual mandate is killed. they say their industry could be in trouble because those consumer protections, they argue without the mandate, are simply not affordable for their insurance industry to cover. and that, candy, people could be dropped from their insurance policies as a result of that. it could be damaging, they say, to the entire industry and consumers as well. candy. >> and you have to assume either they get dropped or the price for that insurance goes unaffordable in some way. >> reporter: that's right. now, the insurance industry will say, some of these companies out there are saying they are going to continue some of these protections that are in the president's plan if it all goes down tomorrow. but obviously there's no guarantee that they will do that. they had those opportunities to have those kinds of protections before the law was implemented. and they chose not to do so. a lot of critics of that industry say they can just go back to that square one if all of this is thrown out. candy, i will tell you, we do expect some kind of word from mitt romney tomorrow after the health care law is either upheld or struck down or something in the middle, we just don't know what kind of comment he's going to give us. it could be like what we saw the other day after the arizona immigration law was decided on at the supreme court. it could come in the form of a statement and not much else later on in the day. we'll have to wait and see what happens, candy. >> okay. jim acosta in virginia. thank you. we are gearin