of what _ months. were you concerned, mindful of what you _ months. were you concerned, mindful of what you had said at the stock—take meeting about the need to plan stock—take meeting about the need to ptah for— stock—take meeting about the need to plan for this massive threat, that try plan for this massive threat, that by this— plan for this massive threat, that by this date, the 8th of february, the director of the body required to produce _ the director of the body required to produce central government plans were still— produce central government plans were still working about work to be done _ were still working about work to be done to— were still working about work to be done to create a plan of activity across — done to create a plan of activity across government. | done to create a plan of activity across government.— done to create a plan of activity across government. i think it was reasonable _ across government. i think it was reasonable that _ across government. i think it was reasonable that this _ across government. i think it was reasonable that this work - across government. i think it was reasonable that this work was - reasonable that this work was continuing, but if this was at the work or expense of other work, as you have implied, i think that was not a sensible use of time. around this time, and this is just to give an idea of what is happening in parallel, you can see debates between me and others, where my firm, certainly, —— my surname, was to bring the number below one. that was a different strand of work, and i think that takes on a different direction. . i think that takes on a different direction. , ., ,., direction. yes. that point, professor. _ direction. yes. that point, professor, is _ direction. yes. that point, professor, is this, - direction. yes. that point, professor, is this, that - direction. yes. that point, i professor, is this, that when direction. yes. that point, - professor, is this, that when it became — professor, is this, that when it became clear, having become clear, that there _ became clear, having become clear, that there was sustained transmission in the united kingdom, and that— transmission in the united kingdom, and that containment had bite necessary inference, failed, what you advocated was a delay in the upswing — you advocated was a delay in the upswing of the overarching first pandemic wave.— upswing of the overarching first pandemic wave. that is correct. althou . h pandemic wave. that is correct. although to _ pandemic wave. that is correct. although to be _ pandemic wave. that is correct. although to be clear, _ pandemic wave. that is correct. although to be clear, that - pandemic wave. that is correct. although to be clear, that was i pandemic wave. that is correct. i although to be clear, that was not clear that that had happened at that point in time. ijust wanted to make sure we separated those in time, that was later. the sure we separated those in time, that was later.— that was later. the strategy that they should _ that was later. the strategy that they should be _ that was later. the strategy that they should be a _ that was later. the strategy that they should be a delay _ that was later. the strategy that they should be a delay in - that was later. the strategy that they should be a delay in the - they should be a delay in the upswing. _ they should be a delay in the upswing, which some people have called _ upswing, which some people have called a _ upswing, which some people have called a mitigation strategy, as opposed — called a mitigation strategy, as opposed to suppression, but there is a huge _ opposed to suppression, but there is a huge debate to be had about delayihg — a huge debate to be had about delaying a wave, squashing the peak, sguashihg _ delaying a wave, squashing the peak, squashing the sombreros, just a form of suppression, and we're not going to go— of suppression, and we're not going to go that _ of suppression, and we're not going to go that debate. | of suppression, and we're not going to go that debate.— to go that debate. i can give you a lona to go that debate. i can give you a long answer... _ to go that debate. i can give you a long answer... !_ to go that debate. i can give you a long answer... ! that _ to go that debate. i can give you a long answer... ! that is _ to go that debate. i can give you a long answer... ! that is in - to go that debate. i can give you a long answer... ! that is in part, i long answer... ! that is in part, while we _ long answer... ! that is in part, while we are — long answer... ! that is in part, while we are not _ long answer... ! that is in part, while we are not going - long answer... ! that is in part, while we are not going to - long answer... ! that is in part, while we are not going to go . long answer... ! that is in part, l while we are not going to go into that debate. —— why. set in at the end of— that debate. —— why. set in at the end of february and the beginning of march. _ end of february and the beginning of march. it— end of february and the beginning of march, it was apparent to you that mearrs— march, it was apparent to you that means of— march, it was apparent to you that means of control having failed, the virus _ means of control having failed, the virus was _ means of control having failed, the virus was here, it is transmitting throughout— virus was here, it is transmitting throughout the community. we now know. _ throughout the community. we now know. of— throughout the community. we now know, of course, there were hundreds if not _ know, of course, there were hundreds if not thousands of seedings during every— if not thousands of seedings during every half—time, from italy, france and spain. — every half—time, from italy, france and spain. -- — every half—time, from italy, france and spain. —— during half term. that seemed _ and spain. —— during half term. that seemed to _ and spain. —— during half term. that seemed to be — and spain. —— during half term. that seemed to be the appropriate response for you. to delay the upswing — response for you. to delay the upswing of the pandemic wave? yes, i think thins upswing of the pandemic wave? yes, i think things that _ upswing of the pandemic wave? yes, i think things that delay _ upswing of the pandemic wave? yes, i think things that delay the _ upswing of the pandemic wave? yes, i think things that delay the wave - upswing of the pandemic wave? .;e:3 i think things that delay the wave and pull the number below one for practical purposes, once you have lost control of the same things come initially. ijust introduce a public health concept which i think is useful for this, health concept which i think is usefulfor this, which is the ladder of intervention? we start at the things that have the lowest in the sense, negative impact, and to escalate up, so you would start with, take this example, washing your hands, and etiquette, you move up your hands, and etiquette, you move up through isolation cases, up to really quite intensive things like closing the school, and as .com in a place that i don't think we really would have anticipated, using the full force of the law to insist on people staying at home. that escalation that the idea of that was that you escalate up, as you need to, and in things that are more and more onerous, or moan —— more and more onerous, oi’ moan —— more and more onerous, or moan —— more and more interrupting of people's normal life, economic and social, as you get further and further into trouble, basically. i'm not saying thatis trouble, basically. i'm not saying that is exactly what we're doing here, but concept was part of what many people tried to think through at this stage. find many people tried to think through at this stage-— many people tried to think through at this stage. and to be clear about when it became _ at this stage. and to be clear about when it became apparent _ at this stage. and to be clear about when it became apparent to - at this stage. and to be clear about when it became apparent to you . at this stage. and to be clear about. when it became apparent to you that steps _ when it became apparent to you that steps might need to be taken to delay— steps might need to be taken to delay the — steps might need to be taken to delay the upswing of an epidemic, as opposed _ delay the upswing of an epidemic, as opposed to _ delay the upswing of an epidemic, as opposed to suppressing it entirely, you had _ opposed to suppressing it entirely, you had irr— opposed to suppressing it entirely, you had in fact started raising this issue _ you had in fact started raising this issue as _ you had in fact started raising this issue as soon as the end ofjanuary, because _ issue as soon as the end ofjanuary, because you — issue as soon as the end ofjanuary, because you e—mailed professor ferguson — because you e—mailed professor ferguson asking for his views as to what _ ferguson asking for his views as to what could — ferguson asking for his views as to what could be done for delaying the upswing? _ what could be done for delaying the u swin: ? . what could be done for delaying the u swin: ? , ., , what could be done for delaying the uswinu? , ., , . , what could be done for delaying the uswinu? , ., , ., i. , upswing? yes, from very early on, my view was that — upswing? yes, from very early on, my view was that we _ upswing? yes, from very early on, my view was that we need _ upswing? yes, from very early on, my view was that we need to _ upswing? yes, from very early on, my view was that we need to find - upswing? yes, from very early on, my view was that we need to find out - upswing? yes, from very early on, my view was that we need to find out a i view was that we need to find out a group of things that will get the number below one, if possible. and the chinese had demonstrated it was possible. so then the question was can you do it in a way that is sustainable and sustainability was my other big concern here. can we come back — my other big concern here. can we come back to _ my other big concern here. can we come back to sustainability? - my other big concern here. can we come back to sustainability? is - my other big concern here. can we come back to sustainability? is a l come back to sustainability? is a subject— come back to sustainability? is a subject its— come back to sustainability? is a subject its own. being aware that the chinese had applied locked arms and it— the chinese had applied locked arms and it had _ the chinese had applied locked arms and it had worked, that was the general— and it had worked, that was the general understanding by the end of february. _ general understanding by the end of february, the united kingdom, why, as you _ february, the united kingdom, why, as you develop the strategy of delaying the upswing of the wave all squashing their levels, squashing the sombrero, did you rule out a complete — the sombrero, did you rule out a complete suppression strategy? what was it— complete suppression strategy? what was it because of the rest of the uhcoited — was it because of the rest of the uncoiled second wave, or, for some other— uncoiled second wave, or, for some other reason?— other reason? yes, i think some of the output — other reason? yes, i think some of the output of _ other reason? yes, i think some of the output of some _ other reason? yes, i think some of the output of some of— other reason? yes, i think some of the output of some of the - other reason? yes, i think some of. the output of some of the modelling is slightly misleading, in my view, it implies that you have a completely unmitigated fast way, and then a completely unmitigated second wave, which makes no logical sense. ultimately, i think humans cannot do think more precisely than they can, rather than over complicating, but my view with epidemics as they are either doubling or halving. the idea that you can somehow hold something at an hour of one, it strikes me as fanciful. you either beloved —— above one or below one. if you are above one or below one. if you are above when it will carry on exponentially. you can delay it, but delay does not necessarily imply that you will get our below one. you could just reduce our, and therefore just push out the number of days it is doubling. —— r. sorry i'm giving you a technical number, but it is worth... he could not get r below one. those two are incompatible. the only way to get an epidemic way to turn over is to get r below one. in reality. turn over is to get r below one. in reali . ., , ., , reality. the reality that inquiry has had a _ reality. the reality that inquiry has had a great _ reality. the reality that inquiry has had a great deal _ reality. the reality that inquiry has had a great deal of - reality. the reality that inquiry i has had a great deal of evidence reality. the reality that inquiry - has had a great deal of evidence of needing _ has had a great deal of evidence of needing to — has had a great deal of evidence of needing to get the reproduction number— needing to get the reproduction number below one, but why then... how did _ number below one, but why then... how did this — number below one, but why then... how did this whole debate... and we have had _ how did this whole debate... and we have had it _ how did this whole debate... and we have had it reflected in witness evidence. — have had it reflected in witness evidence, in the press, the statement of david halpin, of the behavioural insights team come in at downing _ behavioural insights team come in at downing street, did this notion of, or the _ downing street, did this notion of, or the belief of, that you and your colleagues, were flattening the curve. — colleagues, were flattening the curve, delaying the peak, rather than— curve, delaying the peak, rather than focusing on bringing r below one, than focusing on bringing r below one. which— than focusing on bringing r below one, which epidemiology —— epidemiologically, is what you are aiming _ epidemiologically, is what you are aiming to— epidemiologically, is what you are aiming to do... there is lots of debate — aiming to do... there is lots of debate of— aiming to do... there is lots of debate of whether you are actually suppressing it, but what was the genesis— suppressing it, but what was the genesis of— suppressing it, but what was the genesis of all of that? so, ultimately. _ genesis of all of that? so, ultimately, my _ genesis of all of that? so, ultimately, my view - genesis of all of that? so, ultimately, my view was l genesis of all of that? sr ultimately, my view was quite a genesis of all of that? sr3, ultimately, my view was quite a lot of rather fanciful discussion occurred, including between people who did not come in my view, fully grasp the technical aspects they were talking about, if i'm a plant, which led to a confused public debate. that applies to a number of debates, there were a number of others. —— blunt. on several occasions, as you have properly had the privilege of reading, my documents, compared to other people's whatsappedwhatsapps. i think they are confusing, rather than in lightening the public. —— whatsapps. lots of people like to talk, so i think it is a confusion, some of it stemmed from it, and actual strategic lack of knowledge being a dangerous thing. in actual strategic lack of knowledge being a dangerous thing. in terms of strate: , being a dangerous thing. in terms of strategy. you — being a dangerous thing. in terms of strategy. you have — being a dangerous thing. in terms of strategy, you have referred - being a dangerous thing. in terms of strategy, you have referred to - being a dangerous thing. in terms of strategy, you have referred to the i strategy, you have referred to the coronavirus— strategy, you have referred to the coronavirus action plan a 3rd of march. — coronavirus action plan a 3rd of march. can— coronavirus action plan a 3rd of march, can we have that? 57508. this was published, as you know, the 3rd of march. _ was published, as you know, the 3rd of march, and she provided comments on multiple _ of march, and she provided comments on multiple iterations of this according to your statement, and no doubt. _ according to your statement, and no doubt. it— according to your statement, and no doubt, it reflected your views on the clinical— doubt, it reflected your views on the clinical and public health matters. _ the clinical and public health matters. why was this plan to the extent— matters. why was this plan to the extent that it still is, as you said. — extent that it still is, as you said. with _ extent that it still is, as you said, with clinical public health matters. — said, with clinical public health matters, not put before sage? do you know? it is a — matters, not put before sage? do you know? it is a policy document, - matters, not put before sage? do you know? it is a policy document, so - matters, not put before sage? do you know? it is a policy document, so we i know? it is a policy document, so we put all policy documents before sage, they would have had a more difficultjob. essentially, it has three components, for complainers, sorry, three of which i think i reasonably thought through, for this, but one of which, for practical purposes, was almost irrelevant by the time it arrived. contain, delay, mitigate, research. slow down, professor. a tactical points made under those three components which had been thought through, reasonably, in my view, were ok, for a document at this quite high level, that, admirably, there was an attempt to make this a four nations documents, but by the time you have got something all of government, and in four nations, it is not an overnight process. and the contain stage of things was near or at its end, pretty well at the point that this document hit the printing presses. that is just a practical reality. presses. that is 'ust a practical reali . ., ., ,'~, ' presses. that is 'ust a practical reali . ., ., ., reality. paragraph 3.9 on page ten sa s this, reality. paragraph 3.9 on page ten says this. if _ reality. paragraph 3.9 on page ten says this. if it _ reality. paragraph 3.9 on page ten says this, if it does _ reality. paragraph 3.9 on page ten says this, if it does take _ reality. paragraph 3.9 on page ten says this, if it does take hold, - says this, if it does take hold, towering — says this, if it does take hold, lowering the peak impact of pushing it away— lowering the peak impact of pushing it away from the winter season, so there _ it away from the winter season, so there is— it away from the winter season, so there is a — it away from the winter season, so there is a reference to the peak, so that refers— there is a reference to the peak, so that refers to our earlier debate, but surely. — that refers to our earlier debate, but surely, is the chief medical officer. — but surely, is the chief medical officer, you must have had a view on the publication of a document on the 3rd of— the publication of a document on the 3rd of march, commissioned in the first week— 3rd of march, commissioned in the first week in — 3rd of march, commissioned in the first week in february on the 10th of february, in fact, but the secretary— of february, in fact, but the secretary of state... which... and it was— secretary of state... which... and it was the — secretary of state... which... and it was the sole document published by the _ it was the sole document published by the british government... it was out of— by the british government... it was out of date — by the british government... it was out of date by the time it was published.