♪ donald trump dominating right now. this is the picture being painted from new polling out this morning, polling in georgia, polling in michigan and in iowa. will a president of harvard be forced out of her job for what she said about genocide before congress? major developments expected before the end of the day. and a trail of destruction in tennessee, six people are dead after multiple tornadoes ripped through the northern and central part of the state, including the nashville area. one of those tornadoes traveling more than 40 miles on the ground. we are following these major developing stories and many more all coming in right now right here to "cnn news central." ♪ this morning there is some new insight into where the presidential race stands right now and also where it may be headed with new cnn polling out this morning from two key battleground states. donald trump is leading president biden in both in georgia has a five point lead in michigan in this hypothetical matchup. trump is now a ten-point edge. biden won both states in 2020. yes, still a hypothetical matchup, still need to get through the primaries. as for the more immediate focus then and more immediate concern for trump's republican rivals, new numbers are just coming in from iowa as well, now 35 days to the iowa caucuses, donald trump is holding a 32-point lead. important perspective on that, in the history of des moines register polling, that is the largest lead that any republican has held this close to the caucuses. so how does this current state of the race impact the campaigns? we will see. donald trump for his part, off the trail today, and also not going to be in a courtroom as previously scheduled. last night he made a last-minute decision to not testify as the final star witness in the civil fraud trial against him in new york. fred? >> indeed, this morning donald trump is not heading to his civil fraud trial like he was scheduled to be doing about right now. he scrapped the plans unexpectedly. in a last-minute post yesterday writing he, quote, already testified to everything and has nothing more to say. the reversal also came after he doubled down on his dictator remarks at a dinner in new york city. cnn's kristen holmes joining us with more on all of this. kristen, no court today. more dictator talk, and now more polling momentum. what are you hearing from that team? >> reporter: -- decision for him not to testify. his lawyers have been pushing back on the idea that he would show up in court and it seems they won out on that, donald trump decided not to actually take the stand, but this is far from the end of his legal troubles. when i talked to his team what they're really trying to figure out now is how to navigate these various upcoming trials, including the one here in d.c. where he is charged with trying to overturn the 2020 election, which is slated to happen in march, which really will be the peak of primary season. so they are trying to figure out how to navigate that. now, as you look here, this is what i want to show you, this calendar here in january, look at all of the dates here. this is what we're starting to see. this election season is ramping up. he is expected to travel at least two total weeks here between new hampshire and iowa leading into that caucus and then that primary. again, legal troubles aren't over and they are still going to be discovered, he is still going to be needing to meet with various lawyers and that is going to impact how far out he can plan his travel. one thing to pay attention to, as his polling numbers go up, as he seems to be getting more support from the republican party he's also ramping up his rhetoric including mentioning that dictator comment, one more time, over the weekend at an event in new york. take a listen. >> dictator for one day, but "the new york times" said -- and do you know why i wanted to be a dictator? because i want a wall, right? i want a wall and i want to drill, drill, drill. >> reporter: one thing just to point out here is that this was an answer saying that he wanted to be a dictator for a day when he was asked by an ally, sean hannity over and over again if he were to be reelected would he abuse power and instead of answering directly, he deflected and said that he would be a dictator for a day. as we have seen as his poll numbers continue to go up, as it seems to be inching towards the nomination, that question was a response to a number of anti-trump republicans and democrats who said that if trump were to be reelected again that they believed that he would be a dictator or abuse power. again, when he was asked that directly he deflected and now it seems he's doubling down on that line. >> thank you so much. >> let's talk more about the new polling coming in this morning, the picture that it paints. harry enten is here. harry, we have new cnn polling out of georgia and michigan, but let's start with the most immediate. how republican -- republican caucusgoers in iowa are feeling. i mean, we're 35-ish days out from that big contest. what do you see in this? >> look, i see donald trump a dominant front runner. he is over 50% of the vote. look, 45% plus in iowa during the december before the caucuses. he is one of only five to ever reach that point. ronald reagan is the only other candidate who was at 50% of the vote plus. when you are talking about history we're talking about donald trump being matched by one other candidate, mondale, gore, clinton all won those caucuses. reagan lost the iowa caucuses so it's not over yet. mind made up, 70% of trump backers say their mind is made up, compare that to just 34% of haley backers in iowa and 30% of desantis backers in iowa. when you put it all together you see a candidate polling higher than anyone ever has in iowa and a candidate whose backers say they are very much behind him. >> where is the softness in that support? you're really not seeing it in iowa. let me ask you, then, about hypothetical matchup between trump and biden in the very key states of georgia and michigan. what do you see? >> what do i see here? i think that this is a big, big problem for joe biden in the center of the electorate. this is independents to backed biden over trump, in georgia and michigan in 2020 the majority of independents backed biden over trump. look at now. look at 2023. just 35% of independents backing him in georgia, just 30% in the state of michigan. you can't win with those types of numbers if you are joe biden. losing that support in the center of the electorate it's not just on his far left which i think a lot of people have been focusing on, it's in the center of the electorate where joe biden is losing a lot of support. let me put some more historical context. michigan polls where trump led biden, the entire 2020 cycle there were zero, kate. zero. not a single one in the 2024 cycle so far we're already at two polls. so this gives you an indication that these polls are very different than they were back in 2020. this is a much stronger trump candidacy at this point. whether or not that holds, i don't know if we know the answer to that question. >> and that's the thing, right? we are talking hypothetical. voters haven't gone to the polls in any contest quite yet. historically speaking this can shift in a big way, people are talking about how barack obama at this point, you know, in the -- at this point he was behind in polling and then of course he pulled it out. >> i think the one thing i would point out is this contest you have 11 months to go, if you look in iowa you really only have one month to go. yes, caucus polling can shift, yes, ronald reagan lost his lead in 1980 but the fact is he still went on to win the nomination. here is the other thing, kate, it's not just iowa, it's new hampshire, it's south carolina, it's national. trump has a dominant lead in the caucuses and primaries so far. maybe something will change, but i'm not seeing it. >> what you are also saying is we've heard a little bit of the whole idea of strengthening the alternative with consolidating the field. you are not seeing that. you're seeing donald trump gaining strength as the republican field is narrowing. >> exactly. >> thank you, harry. >> thank you. >> john? >> and that's exactly where i'm going to pick up. with us is seung min kim, white house reporter for the associated press. i want to read a quote from ann seltzer who does the des moines register poll, this poll out showing donald trump at 51% support and she said the field may have shrunk but it may have made donald trump even stronger than he was. i would call his lead com commanding. there's not much benefit of fewer candidates for either ron desantis or nikki haley. the shrinking field not helping the opposition to trump. >> reporter: you know, the strategy behind the non-trump candidates has been the thought that perhaps you could, you know, consolidate the vote by everyone dropping out, everyone aligning behind one candidate. that's what you're hearing a lot from republican officials who don't want trump to be their nominee, but you see from at least the des moines register poll that that is not happening. since the last major poll -- [ no audio ] -- and you would think that getting fewer non-trump candidates would help someone else in the race, but, yes, trump is getting stronger here. i think the only major bright spot for either ron desantis or nikki haley from the des moines register poll is that about 46% of caucusgoers still haven't made up -- [ no audio ] -- likely caucusgoers to make up their minds and take away that support for donald trump, but as harry rightly pointed out, i mean, this is a commanding lead that donald trump has right now and it's unclear whether -- whether desantis or haley or anyone else will be able to make that up in the next four weeks. >> so that point of minds being made up, though, as harry pointed out, you know, 70% of donald trump's voters and trump is at 51%, most of trump's voters have made up their minds. in other words, they're sticking with him, while desantis and haley only a third of their voters say they're going to stick with them. the issue of electability is a major calling card, particularly for nikki haley. now, in this poll the question of do you believe trump can win against biden, the idea of electability for donald trump, it's getting better for him. in october just 65% said that they felt that donald trump could beat joe biden. now it's 73%. so maybe that argument that trump can't beat biden, voters don't see it like that anymore. >> reporter: right. and that's actually the only major argument that haley and desantis are making against donald trump right now. if you look at their comments from over the past weekend, campaigning in iowa, that was their main criticisms primarily of donald trump. they keep pointing out over and over that in a general election where you do have independent vote, you have obviously democrats voting in the race that donald trump cannot win another national election, but obviously polls right now bear that -- bear that perhaps not to be true and, again, we are a year out from the election. you know, there's plenty of time for voters' minds to change in these head to head matchups clearly, but right now if the election were today, the numbers don't look good for, you know, not only president biden, but also for that argument from donald trump's other challengers that he can't win a national race because according to this polling, according to, you know, the cnn polls out today in georgia and michigan, these two critical swing states in a general election, donald trump certainly can win again. >> and if you are ron desantis or nikki haley, particularly in iowa, what you are trying to do is figure out where those votes might be that can help you gain against donald trump. and one of those areas is first-time vote, people who have never voted in a caucus before, those people who may not have been old enough last time. the problem is that among first-time caucusgoers, the new voters this time around donald trump is trouncing them. he is at 63% among first-time caucusgoers with desantis and haley at 12 and 11. how do you explain that. >> reporter: it was one of the most fascinating results from that poll. it appears that donald trump is attracting perhaps younger caucusgoers who would be obviously first-time voters in the sense and bringing out people who perhaps chose to sit out in the previous contest. and it all just speaks to -- i don't want to say inevitability because nothing is inevitable at this stage, but it just shows this commanding lead that may be insurmountable for any of his challengers in the next several weeks until the caucuses and the next several months through the primary campaign season. >> it's hard to figure out where haley and desantis go in iowa to find these votes. they do have a month left to figure it out. seung min kim, thank you very much for that. coming up for us, rudy giuliani heading to court to find out just how much the lies he pushed in georgia, especially about two georgia election workers, how much it will cost him. and hundreds of harvard faculty members are throwing their support behind the university's president. this as pressure is mounting for her to resign over a disastrous congressional testimony and questions about genocide. and with billions of dollars in aid on the line, president biden has invited the ukrainian president to the white house, they will be hosting him tomorrow. can president zelenskyy win over republican lawmakers? we will be back. all right. we have video in from just moments ago showing rudy giuliani arriving to a federal courthouse in washington, d.c. why he's doing that is correct that's because jury selection is under way right now in the federal defamation trial against rudy giuliani. donald trump's former attorney has been sued by two georgia -- two former georgia election workers. ruby freeman and her daughter shaye moss. you may remember them, you should remember them. the judge has already found giuliani liable for deframing them. they say he essentially ruined their lives when giuliani falsely accused them of tampering with ballots during the to 20 election. this was all part of giuliani's efforts to help donald trump overturn trump's 2020 election loss in the state. cnn's katelyn polantz joining us with much more on this. katelyn, what is at stake here as we know that jury selection is under way, what's at stake here for rudy giuliani? >> reporter: kate, there is the potential that rudy giuliani could face a staggering amount of money that he will have to pay these two women. let's just start with that. what they're asking for from this jury. so because rudy giuliani said many things about them that the judge has already found he is liable for, he did defame them, he was claiming that they were switching votes as they counted ballots. it just wasn't true and they faced significant harassment because of how far those messages were sent from rudy giuliani. the amounts they're asking for for reputational damage alone, they're asking this jury to find -- to award them between 15.5 and $43 million. on top of that they want the jury to award them payment for the emotional distress that they -- that he had caused them after the election. not just him, either, donald trump as well. the trump campaign, everyone who was putting forward what giuliani was saying and repeating those things. and then on top of that they're asking for what's called punitive damages, that is punishment, the punishment for his outrageous conduct and an amount of money that would deter rudy giuliani and others from doing something like this in the future to them or other people. and so all of that put together could be an enormous amount of money that giuliani already is saying he doesn't even have a few hundred thousand dollars to pay them for attorney fees that they've been awarded. so that alone is significant. on top of that this is going to be an episode in court where we see in this federal court in washington the real harm that took place after the election to these two women. giuliani is expected to testify for himself, if ruby freeman and shaye moss' attorneys don't call him first to the stand. they also are going to be taking to the stand to testify and we're going to be hearing clips of testimony recorded video testimony of others who were working with donald trump and the trump campaign and rudy giuliani after the 2020 election. so an episode, a mini trial, of all that is very likely to be tried again in criminal cases against donald trump and others. >> and two people who not only say that they were truly harmed by the lies told, that a judge has found they were as well. katelyn, thank you very much. fred? joining me right now for more on all of this cnn's senior legal analyst and former federal prosecutor elie honig. wow, those are some big figures, i'm still stunned by that. so the judge has already found the former new york city mayor rudy giuliani liable for defamation and now it's about rendering what's going to be the penalty. a jury is going to make that decision. jury selection beginning. what are the challenges of seating a jury for one of perhaps the most -- one of the most famous politicians in this country? >> that's a great question. how do you seat a jury when everyone knows rudy giuliani? we're going to see a bigger version of this when donald trump goes to trial, a criminal case there, this is a civil case. the answer is you do not need to find a pool of jurors who have never heard of rudy giuliani. ideally you would like that, but that's impossible here. what you have to do and what they will ask the jurors starting today is do you have any pre-determined views on this case that would prevent you from ruling fairly based solely on the evidence you hear in court. the jurors will answer, some might say i despise the guy, some people might say i admire him and would rule in his favor. as a lawyer you have to use your common sense, do i believe this juror and then you have the ability to eliminate certain jurors if you think they are biased. the goal is not to get people who have never heard of rudy giuliani, the goal is to get people who could be fair. >> what's going to be the process here. we are talking about 15.5 to $43 million potentially in damages. what are some of the things that the jurors are going to hear or have to weigh? >> we're in a sort of unusual posture here because rudy giuliani's team has already agreed, stipulated, that his comments were defamatory. he said he's not going to contest that. that's why we jump right over into the damages phase. the jury will hear evidence liz cheney like a mini trial, they will certainly i would assume hear from ms. moss and ms. freeman the plaintiffs about how their lives were upended. we got a sense of that. >> a big taste when they testified on capitol hill. >> they testified in the january 6th committee. sounds like rudy giuliani will testify. i don't know what he's going to say. >> why would that be advantageous for him? >> i don't know is the short answer. his team could argue, well, the amount these people were damaged, the financial damages, were somehow limited but i don't know what rudy's testimony could add to that. maybe he will -- i mean, who knows. maybe he will apologize, express some remorse, maybe he will say he was misunderstood or he misspoke, something to try to mitigate damages because that's what we're talking about here is how much are the damages going to be. >> let's shift gears to his buddy, former president, who was to be in court today for his new york civil fraud case. he promised everybody, he touted he was going to be there and then he had second thoughts. i mean, why? >> it was the least bad option for him. i think h