let's go "outfront." i'm erin burnett. out front tonight, herman cain's pain. dropping 11 points in the past month after four women claimed he sexually harassed them. he's now polling at 14% among republicans, down from 25%. that is pain. and his pain was not mitt romney's gain. romney also dropped 2 percentage points, although he's still in the lead. the man who's getting the game, newt gingrich. he is the only candidate up and it is big time. >> it's better than when i was at 4. this is the most volatile race of my lifetime. >> you can say that again. gingrich went on to say, who knows what the polls are going to be two months from now. and there's something to that. before there was cain, there was rick, who dropped from 32% to 12. a drop of 20 percentage points. and before there was rick, there was michele. she dropped from 14 to 6. tonight, herman cain is betting that someone he's known for 46 years can turn it around for him. that's his wife. >> to hear such graphic allegations and know that that would have been something that was totally disrespectful of her as a woman, and i know that's not the person he is. he totally respects women. >> well, 58% of republican women believe herman cain's accuse errors. so we're going to dig into these numbers. avlon joins us, james carville, and nancy. thanks to all three of you. can she do it for him? talking about gloria? >> can gloria save herman cain? this is different than that bill and hillary moment on "60 minutes." the gender difference is stark. it's steep. iowa could turn the whole thing around from january 3rd, her main can is in trouble and the numbers are finally taking a poll. >> would you agree, nancy? >> i do. his integrity and he wasn't the smoothest person out there but he seemed the most authentic. this particular attack is really a gut shot to him. it's one that is going to be extraordinarily difficult to recover from and, unfortunately, the sheer number of women who have come forward have started to tip the scales for other women across the country, saying, if that many people come forward, there must be some truth to it. >> james carville, there was a meeting out today, an editorial board of a newspaper, asked a question on libya. i have to say, i think he just literally -- his mind is so busy with what is going on, i don't think he's able to function anymore. this has take answer real toll on him. >> right. i saw that particular clip. it was pretty amazing. and i've been through these kinds of things before. you have no idea what it's like to jump from 25 to -- >> let me play it for you. >> okay. >> okay. libya. president obama supported the uprising, correct? president obama called for the removal of gadhafi. just want to make sure we're talking about the same thing before i say yes, i agree, i know i didn't agree. i do not agree with the way he handled it for the following reasons. nope, that's a different one. >> he answered the question. this is different than the rick perry thing in a strange way. his mind was just not there. >> look, as a human being -- >> yes -- >> and in a sense i feel sorry for him, what he's going through. i've gone through it. >> yes. >> the man has no right running for president. it's an endeavor not suited to his skill set and it is kind of painful to see this happened. but it happened at must and it happened at will and he's not going to be the nominee and never was going to be the nominee. he said many other things on foreign policy that would indicate that, you know, that i would be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. maybe he's exhausted and he's demonstrated no doubt in this particular area at all. >> it did seem like he was exhausted on a human level. let me ask you, because it does lead to the issue of how people behave in their personal lives. how relevant it is to americans. republican women, 58% agree to and i asked newt gingrich about ten days ago whether morality is relevant for a president. and here's what he said to say. >> no, i don't think it's that important but it's a question of whether you're talking about the totality of his life or you go back and dredge things up. i think there's a desire in the washington press corps to cover gossip as much as possible. just look at the twitter a couple months ago with congressman congressmanweiner. >> he had a point there but interesting that he said that morality shouldn't matter. >> he began with a triple negative, too. that indicates that he's off his game on this. sex scandals suck up too much oxygen and when you start going up in the polls, people start throwing rocks and you're already starting to see that. >> james carville, what do you think of this whole question about morality and the body of a person as opposed to a specific incident. >> i think people look at it -- to some extent they saw president clinton and somebody of enormous ability and he brought all this stuff with him. too this day he remains enormously popular. with people of less talent, you know, it sticks more. but speaker gingrich is getting ready to find out how much it matters because once you're in that position, i guarantee you that they are getting ready to tee up on him. he's going to get the full treatment here. >> and that full treatment is downright vial. sometimes fair, often times just vial. nancy, what do you think, we were talking about michele bachmann at the top, rick perry was at the top. herman cain was at the top. could newt gingrich stay at the top or is there still a chance for someone like jon huntsman? >> i'm not sure that there's a chance for jon huntsman but i would say that the republican primary voters are going through a thing like speed dating. it's not even flavor of the month. it's flavor of the week, for goodness sakes. and it's somewhat of indicative of their lack of warmth for romney. but i don't think the american -- they don't want to fall in love. they want somebody competent on the economy. and i think it's important to remember historically that incumbents are not beaten by opponents, they defeat themselves. and right now, president obama's looking at pretty terrible economic numbers, net job loss of three million, give or take. and if the economy turns around, it's going to be a very different horse race. i think romney could definitely do it. gingrich if he gets an organization might be able to. >> wow. i didn't think you'd go that far. john avlon, i've got to ask you about health care. the american people now show a poll like the mandate for insurance. if he. >> they said bring it on. for the reasons that you just said. if it gets struck down, the most powerful person in is justice kennedy. all of a sudden it will create a base. it's a matter of settled law before the election or they have to go back to the drawing board which could simulate the base. but this is a -- this is going to be one of the driving themes of the next couple of months. >> all right. thank you very much to all three of you. we appreciate it. by the way, president now talking about obama cares, is the way he's playing it obama care. he says obama cares. still "outfront" two republican candidates says that they will get to military strikes against iran. well, we do the numbers on this show. how much will it really cost america to go to war with iran? and ramos kidnapped and escaped in a gunfight. and an american accused of spying for israel spent time in an egyptian jail. he comes outfront with this story. front with this story. 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>> well, i think that iran is a dangerous power. i think it's a hedgemonistic power. it is a threat to the nations in the middle east. and as the president said, it could be a threat to the united states as well. >> do you think the united states can stop them from maintaining those weapons through diplomacy, especially with all of these sanctions that we have. i was in iran a couple of months ago and they seem to get what they need, in part, from places like china. >> if the united states can bring china and russia to bear and went after them in the toughest possible way and we're willing to impact iran's ability to deal in oil, then i think it's possible that sanctions could have a decisive action. i think sanctions are already having an impact. there's no question that we are making it tougher on the iranian regime but it's clear that the iranian regime seems determined to move ahead. >> one thing that amazed me when i was there that the most common bill in iran has the bill em blaze zened on it and they seem to support the program, for whatever reason, from a public relations point of view. so does that mean that it really becomes inevitable? that the people are willing to make the sacrifices that are needed to pursue a new nuclear program? >> well, iran has sold this as a national pride and national achievement for nuclear energy. not for nuclear weapons. they are continuing to deny their nuclear weapons program but, of course, the indications are that they are pursing it. i think the president has had a very strong and proactive policy in this. i think he's been very tough minded on it. he's offered diplomacy, he's offered dialogue, he's gone for tough sanctions. no options off the table. and i think what you're seeing is that we're approaching a decision point with respect to iran. but it's a little bit difficult for me when i watch the dialogue going back and forth. >> yeah. >> that no one has any better answer to this than our president has right now. >> general clark, do you think that america could go to war in iran right now if we needed to? because there are plenty out there that say we can't. that the bluff of the united states could be called, if military force in iran were required. we don't have what it takes. >> well, we wouldn't be going into iran to occupy iran. there's no requirement to do that. we would go in with some fairly significant strikes. i don't think they would be limited just to the iranian nuclear facilities but they made much broader strikes against iran's military and industrial complex and its ability to retaliate. now, ultimately, do we know the iranians have a worldwide terrorist network. we know that they would attempt to respond using terror. >> uh-huh. >> but i think the overwhelming power of the united states would be very, very effective against iran's conventional and unconventional military capabilities, especially in the persian gulf and iran. >> thank you for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thank you. a major league baseball player was kidnapped and rescued in 48 hours. >> where they were holding me was a very remote place and basically a jungle. i was praying to god that they would bring had he moem safely. he was swiped from his venezuela home on wednesday night, throw into an suv, brought to a mountainous region 60 miles away. he's the catcher for the washington nationals team and thought he would never see his family again but then security forces swooped in and in a dramatic fire fight now detained five of them colombian citizens. a reporter with mlb.com, what do you say to people about what happened in that ordeal? >> hi, erin. thank you for having me on. wilson was a little -- obviously he was really relieved. all he talked about was how it was like a movie. the gunfight and that they had to hes skew him. the guys put their arms around his neck, through him in the car and it is the wildest and crazy story that i've ever heard and one of the most dangerous in latin america. >> what happened during the fire fight, that he told you? >> he said he was on the bed, he heard fire, and it was the authorities db he looked out the win deand the authorities and the kidnappers were shooting at each other. this lasted 15 minutes. he hid under the bed, he was praying and crying and didn't know what was going to happen. after about 15 minutes the command doe, the government authorities rushed through the house and yelled, wilson, wilson, are you here? and he yelled, i'm here, i'm here. and they were united and brought back to his family. >> amazing story. thanks so much for taking the time to share that with us. and still "outfront" disturbing details from the penn state sex scandal. new details tonight and we're going to have those for you in a couple of moments. and a woman whose son died while she was jay walking has been convicted of homicide but she's now appealing. and the berlusconi era comes to an end. we're america's natural gas and here's what we did today: supported nearly 3 million steady jobs across our country... ... scientists, technicians, engineers, machinists... ... adding nearly 400 billion dollars to our economy... we're at work providing power to almost a quarter of our homes and businesses... ... and giving us cleaner rides to work and school... and tomorrow, we could do even more. cleaner, domestic, abundant and creating jobs now. we're america's natural gas. the smarter power, today. learn more at anga.us. a vacation on a budget with expedia. make it work. booking a flight by itself is an uh-oh. see if we can "stitch" together a better deal. that's a hint, antoine. ooh! see what anandra did? booking your flight and hotel at the same time gets you prices hotels and airlines won't let expedia show separately. book it. major wow factor! where you book matters. expedia. and now a story we can't resist. it's a very sad day at "outfront," and that's because berlusconi officially resigned of italy. nobody enjoyed his antics as much as we did. he was our own personal class clown, a kid that you knew was going to end up in juve. and the worst part is that italy replaced him with this guy, mario montie he's an economist and went to yale. so far he appears pretty boring. but we'll pretty happy surprised, mario. so we pride ourselves in become a positive show, a show of ideas. so we have looked past italy's prime minister and on to silvio's replacement and number three, prince albert of monacco, he appeared as a character in a facebook book movie. number two, kim jong-il. where do i even begin with this guy? he was popular in that puppet movie but allegedly has a thing for swedish ladies of the evening. and, of course, there is number one. yeah, vladimir putin. there's no many reasons we cannot resist him. he's a sportsman and doesn't own shirts and, best of all, he just released this commercial to encourage russians to vote. ♪ ♪ >> guess that's what a russian election is like? he just couldn't resist and neither could we. out front on our second half, american airlines, the first airline to be fined for delays. we have the numbers. and another person linked to the penn state scandal forced to resign. and accused of spying spent time in an egyptian jail comes "outfront." ♪ at dow we understand the difference between innovation and invention. invention is important. it's the beginning. it's the spark. but innovation is where we actually create value for dow, for society, and for the world. ♪ at dow, we're constantly searching for how to use our fundamental knowledge of chemistry to solve these difficult problems. science is definitive. there is a right answer out there. 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