consumer-driven economy like that of the united states, how people feel is the key determina determinant. the number you'll tell our viewers about shortly is consumer sentiment, how do you feel about the economy now, how do you feel about it in the future, and this number is as strong as it's been since october of 2007. i want to take you back to october of 2007 and tell you what was going on. dow was at 14,000. it had set a new record. we had just started to see weakness on the housing front. but things were still feeling pretty good. it was only after that, only after october into december of 2007 when the recession started did people start to say, uh-oh, something is wrong with this economy. remember, john, it's when people, americans, consumers start to feel something is wrong, they start to act that way, they spend less, and this starts to create job losses. so this is very key that we're back up to where we were in october 2007 when things felt pretty good. >> it's key, and you've mentioned the reasons for the upside. what could derail this improved sentiment? >> anything and everything. gas prices, you just said, was one of the key motivators for stronger consumer sentiment. well, gas prices, as you know, have very volatile. we still don't know what's going on with iran, and that's been causing oil prices to be up and down. europe, we know many more serious problems going on. just today we heard a major spanish bank asked for a $19 billion bailout. china, growth is slowing down. china buys all of those raw materials, many of them from the united states, including commodities. lots of things can go wrong. but we're feeling better than you might think right now. >> ali velshi, our chief business correspondent, thanks. let's look at why this matters so much in presidential politics. this is a determinant that a lot of pollsters and strategists use, they think it's more important than the president's approval rating. why? the average number is 95.9. if the incumbent president is above 90, especially in the 95 range, that incumbent president, going back to 1956, he wins if he's around 95. the average among incumbents who have lost, 78.4. if the president is below 80, the president's in trouble. where are we today? right there. 79.3. guess what? the president of the united states can be happy about that. this is the high mark of the obama from the president si, 79.3. it's also almost exactly where george h.w. bush was back in 1992. he's the last incumbent president to lose. you have to get above 90 to be an incumbent to be confident you can win. let's take a look at this through time. in ronald reagan days, he won re-election, started october 1980 in the 70s. by this time in 1984 he was above 98. he ended above 96. the average among incumbents above 95. bill clinton in 1996, let's bring this up for you, 1994 in the low 90s. at this point he dipped to 89, but a little before election day in 1996 bill clinton of course coasted to re-election. here's the history, right now, this is the michigan consumer sentiment index. it was way down in 2010. it was down 79.3%. that is where we are right now. that's again, as i said, almost identical to george h.w. bush. the question is can this president get that above 90 by a few weeks before the election. that's the big determinant. it's the high point of the obama presidency now. if you look at recent history, it would tell you as of yet it's not high enough. being donald trump apparently means never having to say barack obama is american. it's been more than a year since the president released his long-form birth certificate from the the state of hawaii. the donald still doesn't buy it. he stopped by "the view" this morning. >> i have something for you. my birth certificate. >> ah. like to see obama's. >> so, just what is mr. trump up to now? let's check in with our senior political analyst, david gergen. about a year ago we thought this was settled. eve pln trump said i assume it's real. why now? >> i have no idea. you have no idea which way it's going tounce bo next. they're just testing out themes. but donald trump loves to stir up a controversy. >> he does. most times i would plain ignore it, but he's a major surrogate for governor romney. he said on that same program i'd love to be considered for vice president or he wouldn't rule it out. he's had a big fund raise we are governor romney and speaker gingrich next week in vegas. the romney campaign has a big raffle if you go online. put in $3 and win a chance to have dinner with the donald and governor romney. is there any burden on the romney campaign to say, whoa, stifle? >> the thing the rom e knee campaign ought to be careful about is not letting this get too crazy and wander out beyond the message control. for example, donald trump is thinking of starring up a big pac and -- you know, that'll be fun, but they need to be very careful about what they say. >> do you think there's any sense, let's say the romney campaign, if they privately said, please, you think he would listen given his history? >> you know him bert than i do. no. i don't. but i think they can have some persuasive power. after all, he is going to be their host. governor romney is going to be the guest in the trump hotel. and the donald will raise a lot of matchup for him. they'll both have chuckles out-it. but this is a serious campaign, and they need to keep their focus on jobs, the deficit, america's future. >> our senior political analyst david gergen. thank you. >> thank you. you know the old saying, don't bite the hand that feeds you. it's advice being ignored by the obama re-election campaign as the president and his political team ratchet up their attacks on mitt romney and his record while at bank capital. here's cnn senior congressional correspondent dana bash. >> reporter: the obama ads are harsh. >> they closed it down, filed for bankruptcy. >> reporter: testimonials like this about bank capital, the private equity firm mom used to run. >> came in and is sucked the life out of us. >> reporter: the irony, some of the money to pay for this tv ad may have come from inside the very company team obama is demonizing in it, bank capital. it turns out employees had given $124,900 in donations to the obama campaign in this election cycle. and three of those bank capital donors have given the president's re-election efforts the maximum amount allowed by law, $35,800. in the case of levine, he didn't just write his own check to the president,. he's what's called a bundler. a fund-raiser who helps the obama campaign raise money from others. $125,000 is a lot of money from people who work at a company the obama campaign and its allies vilified, like in this super pac ad. >> bain capital always made money. >> reporter: all of the nearly $125,000 in donations to the obama campaign from bain employees were made in 2011, well before the president's team started accusing romney of killing while at bain. still, the obama campaign tells cnn they do not intend to return any campaign cash from bain employees. no one, aside from mitt romney, is is running for president. but is isn't it hypocrital for the obama campaign to keep money from employees of a company it goes after as job killers? here's the democratic chairwoman's answer. >> accepting a contribution from a particular person involved in venture capital and criticizing mitt romney, who has made his record as a venture capitalist at bain, is the central focus of his credibility and his qualification for being president are completely different things. >> reporter: we've put calls into the bain capital employee who is donated to the president and asked if they were going to demand their money back. none of our calls were returned, but a spokesman for bain capital did get back to us and said in a statement that it is not a political organization, it takes no position on any candidate. he also said that bain capital celebrates the fact that employees are, quote, active in civic affairs and philanthropy across a range of various policy and political views. >> not wanting to comment publicly perhaps, but the bain democrats are not happy. >> not so much. >> dana bash, thanks so much. still ahead here, the identity crisis overshadowing one of the neigh's most watched u.s. senate races. up next, governor rick perry says he's living proof attacking mitt romney's bain capital won't help president obama. >> we were looking for some ways to score some point, and it didn't work. so, john, the bottom line is it didn't work then, it doesn't work now. ♪ [ acoustic guitar: slow ] [ sighs ] [ announcer ] all work and no play... will make brady miss his favorite part of the day. ♪ [ upbeat ] [ barking ] [ whines ] that's why there's beneful playful life, made with energy-packed wholesome grains... and real beef and egg. to help you put more play in your day. beneful. play. it's good for you. see life in the best light. [music] transitions® lenses automatically filter just the right amount of light. so you see everything the way it's meant to be seen. experience life well lit, ask for transitions adaptive lenses. are you still sleeping? just wanted to check and make sure that we were on schedule. the first technology of its kind... mom and dad, i have great news. is now providing answers families need. siemens. answers. the focus of the president and his campaign this week largely on mitt romney and his record at the private equity firm bain capital. the attacks from the president's campaign were tough, but if you follow the republican primary, familiar. >> they're vultures sitting out there on the tree limb waiting for the company to get sick. then they swoop in. do you want to have an individual running the country who has been all about making profit for the company and for bain capital? if it is a fatal flaw, then we need to talk about it now. >> that was of course the texas govern governor, onetime presidential candidate, rick perry. he's now a supporter of mitt romney. you've heard it from the president, his team, and you could say you heard it from you first. any regrets? >> well, good afternoon to you, john. and no, not at all. as we said, now is the time, back in the earlier part of the campaign, to vet that issue. didn't work then and it's not going to work now. as a matter of fact, there were 13 different democrats and counting that have said to the president, don't go there, mr. president. this election is going to rotate around, revolve around who has the best experience, both private sector and public sector, to get people back working again, then it's going to be no contest. mitt romney has an excellent record from the standpoint of creating jobs, and on the other hand you've got president obama, who has about 1.4 million job loss record right now in the states that are still on the negative side of job creation. so i don't think barack obama wants to go there either. >> well, let's talk about it a bit. did you say it not just once, not just twice, but many times in the republican primaries? because some consultant said, hey, governor, try this, or did you believe it then and do you believe it now to be a weakness for governor romney? >> well, that's an old story. and it didn't work then, it doesn't work now, so -- >> but i'm not asking if it worked or not. i'm not asking if p it worked. when you were looking over and deciding whether to do that, you thought it was a way to a working-class guy, this guy's not on your side. right? that was the point? >> no. the point was we were looking for some ways to score some points and it didn't work. so, john, the bottom line is it didn't work then, it doesn't work now. >> your state holds its primary next week, and that will officially put governor romney by all accounts, including our cnn count, over the top. he will officially be the republican nominee for president. the convention has to go through the formality, but we'll have the delegates thp then planning the convention and picking a delegate. if he called you and said who should i pick, who should it be? >> i think mitt romney has plenty of people around him and has excellent instincts of his own on who can be his best running mate. he doesn't need me to give him any advice on that. what he's going to be asking me to do is go out and talk about not only hiss record but the record of states like texas, records like susanna martinez and brian sandoval, marco rubio that are reaching out into the hispanic population across this country with a great record. i mean, when we talk about what is it that the hispanic voter is looking for and the republican party i think encompasses those, whether if they're very pro-life, very patriotic, very economically minded, and those are issues that the republican party i think -- and you know what, i just mentioned three people that would be very capable as vice presidential nominees as well. >> those are three people who might make the list. you also mentioned another issue, another issue you sparred with not only governor romney but other republican candidates when in your opinion the race, eventually saying you had disagreements on policy but also on tone. you were one of the candidates from a state with a significant latino population saying, look, we have to be careful how we speak about these issues. do you think governor romney has gotten that message? >> oh, without a doubt i think that governor romney's reaching out to the hispanic voter in the country and talking about the issues they care about, in particular, economics. i mean, who is it that has the best vision for america and how to get america back working? you know, barack obama believes that we need to print more money, that we need to spend more money. somehow or another you can stimulate the economy. all that stimulus didn't work back in 2009, 2010, it's not going to work now. so if you're a hispanic voter and you're looking for the individual who can put policies in place where you can best take care of your family, you can have a job and take care of your loved ones, then this is no contest. mitt romney is that person. >> and what about rick perry? what's next? >> we've got a legislative session coming up so we've got a budget compact that we've laid out to continue to challenge our legislators to make texas even more competitive because i can assure you bobby jindal over in louisiana and rick scott in florida, susanna martinez in new mexico, they're going to be look at ways to make their states more competitive. we can't just rest on our laurels. >> that's a pretty cautious day at a time answer. are you saying no to 2014 or talk to me in six months or a year? >> oh, check on me in june of 2013 and we'll have that conversation. >> you got a deal, governor. hope to see you before that, as well. ? thank you, john. >> appreciate your time tonight. >> yes, sir. a sneak preview of "tonight's truth." president obama is african-american. but there's still a big question. how much will donald trump and his birther friends perhaps hurt mitt romney? but next, one small step in orbit, one giant leap for u.s. business and the space program. we love theme parks but with four kids, it can just be too expensive. yeah, so to save money we just de our own. oh no! what could be worse than ninety-foot swells?! typhoon! first prize! it's a cheese grater. wooooo... this isn't scary. are you kidding me? look at that picture of your mom's hair from the '80s. there's an easier way to save. wooohooo... geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. 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[ male announcer ] it's a network of possibilities -- helping you do what you do... even better. ♪ this half hour, joe biden shares his anger over his guilt of losing loved ones. new questions over a u.s. kand day's family tree. did a white house favorite misrepresent herself as native american? and this is what it looks like to win the world's biggest science fair. what this high school freshman invented that could help detech cancer. it could well be the highest profile senate race this year. consumer advocate democrat elizabeth warren wants to unseat scott brown in massachusetts. he made national headlines shocking us by winning ted kennedy's seat in 2010. with president obama holding a 25-point lead over normal the state, expect democrat warren to have a big advantage. but the latest polls show a statistical dead heat. now warren on her heels after new revelations about her native american claims in an academic bio. reporter for "the boston globe" has been covering this story. mary, elizabeth warren is trying to talk about the economy, her record as a consumer advocate. listen to her here when reporters want to ask about her biography. >> i have answered these questions. i am going to talk about what's happening to america's families. >> i've covered a lot of campaigns. that's an exasperated candidate. she says asked and answered. has she answered all the questions? >> the chief question is how did harbor come to think of her as native american in the first place. no one has answered that at all. harvard hasn't